“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Yvonne Man and David Ingles give global investors unique insight, delivering in-depth discussions with the newsmakers who matter. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bloomberg: The China Show opens 00:04:33 - World awaits Iran response to US strikes 00:09:11 - BCA Research's Matt Gertken on Middle East tensions 00:17:11 - China condemns Trump's attack on Iran nucle ...

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation has confirmed the complete shutdown of the Leviathan gas field due to an emergency directive from Israel's Energy Ministry, driven by national security concerns amid escalating tensions with Iran [1][8][11] - The shutdown has halted natural gas exports to Egypt, significantly impacting regional energy markets and supply chains [1][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Israel's Energy Landscape - The Leviathan gas field is Israel's largest energy asset, with an estimated 22.9 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas, and had been exporting a record 981 million cubic feet per day to Egypt in 2024, an 18% increase from 2023 [2][8] - The cessation of Leviathan's operations disrupts a critical energy supply chain connecting the Mediterranean to North Africa and Europe, despite other fields like Tamar and Karish continuing to operate [3][8] - Expansion plans to increase Leviathan's output from 12 billion cubic meters (bcm) to 21 bcm annually have been suspended due to geopolitical risks [9][10] Group 2: Regional and Global Energy Implications - Egypt, heavily reliant on Israeli gas imports, faces immediate energy strain and potential LNG shortfalls, which could lead to emergency procurement and higher global gas prices [4][5][6] - Europe's natural gas prices spiked by up to 6.6% following the announcement of the shutdown, highlighting the continent's vulnerability to supply disruptions from the Eastern Mediterranean [6][14] - The interconnected gas pipeline infrastructure linking Israel, Egypt, and Jordan is at risk, potentially triggering broader energy crises in the region [7][14] Group 3: Geopolitical Context and Future Outlook - The shutdown reflects rising regional conflict, particularly following military actions by Israel against Iran, prompting preemptive measures to secure energy infrastructure [11][12] - The duration of the shutdown will be critical; a prolonged disruption could deepen market imbalances and increase competition for LNG globally [15][16] - Resuming operations at Leviathan will require improved security conditions and regulatory reassurances from Israeli authorities, emphasizing the direct impact of geopolitical risks on the gas market [16]

Geopolitical Risks & Market Reaction - The market is failing to fully appreciate the potential gravity of the current geopolitical moment, particularly concerning Middle East conflicts [2] - The perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to oil prices has declined over time, potentially leading to underestimation of current risks [2] - US shale gas supply has reduced the sensitivity of oil prices to Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, but the current situation is different [4] Potential Escalation Scenarios - The US potentially getting involved in a major geopolitical risk event, such as a conflict with China over Taiwan or an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, represents a significant escalation [5] - The possibility of a "controlled explosion" potentially happening in Iran indicates a failure of markets to understand the risk trajectory [6] - Recent exchanges of force between Israel and Iran, including Israel's claimed aerial superiority, represent a strong statement and escalation [7] Israel-Iran Conflict Dynamics - Israel's Operation Rising Lion, involving targeted assassinations and undermining Iran's nuclear capacity, is an advanced operation [8] - The success of Operation Rising Lion on Israeli terms would require undermining Iran's nuclear capacity [8] - Achieving the desired outcome in the conflict between Israel and Iran may require US military assistance, making Trump's decisions a key variable [9]

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) shares declined 3.4% following its exclusion from the S&P 500 index during the quarterly rebalance, leading to bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Online brokers, including IBKR, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab, have benefited from increased market volatility and client activity due to tariff concerns and geopolitical risks [2] - Over the past three months, shares of IBKR, Robinhood, and Schwab have rallied and outperformed the industry [3] Group 2: Company Developments - IBKR is enhancing its global presence through product diversification, including extending trading hours for Forecast Contracts and launching new investment products in various markets [7][8] - The company has introduced innovative trading options, such as Overnight Trading for U.S. stocks and ETFs, and commission-free trading through IBKR Lite [9][10] Group 3: Financial Performance - IBKR's net revenues have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% over the last five years, with expectations for further improvement due to strong trading activity [11][12] - The company’s shares are currently trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.29X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.88X, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [15][16] Group 4: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 downward by 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [19] - Despite the growth potential, rising non-interest expenses and geopolitical risks are concerns for analysts, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for IBKR [23][24]

Industry Overview - Gold has gained approximately 26% year to date, currently trading near $3,030 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and a weaker U.S. dollar [1] - The Zacks Mining - Gold industry has increased by 39.1% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Basic Materials sector's 6.4% and the S&P 500's 0.7% [2] - Robust gold demand is anticipated to continue, with central banks expected to maintain a buying streak of over 1,000 tons [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, the highest quarterly total since 2016, with central banks acquiring around 244 tons [4] - Investment demand surged 170% year over year to 552 tons, marking the strongest quarter since Q1 2022, driven largely by China [5] - Global gold ETFs saw inflows of 226.5 tons, with April marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase [6] Company Highlights Newmont - Newmont solidified its position as the world's largest gold producer after integrating Newcrest assets and is focusing on Tier 1 assets [10] - The company has a strong liquidity position and is pursuing several growth projects, including Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [12] Agnico Eagle Mines - Agnico Eagle maintains a strong liquidity position and is advancing several projects expected to enhance production and cash flows [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle's 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year growth of 42.2% [14] Barrick Mining - Barrick Mining is well-positioned to benefit from key growth projects, including Goldrush and Pueblo Viejo plant expansion [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick Mining's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 34.7% [17] Kinross Gold - Kinross Gold has a strong production profile and is advancing key development projects, including Great Bear and Round Mountain Phase X [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year growth of 52.2% [21] New Gold - New Gold consolidated its interest in the New Afton mine to 100%, projecting a 37% increase in gold production between 2024 and 2027 [22] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for New Gold's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 91.25% [24]

Market Overview - In the first 100 days of 2025, the stock market faced one of its worst starts in decades, resulting in significant losses for investors, including large pension funds like CalSTRS [1] - CalSTRS Chief Investment Officer Scott Chan highlighted "unprecedented and world-changing" risks primarily related to policy changes under the Trump administration, including tariffs that have created market uncertainty [2] Investment Strategy - CalSTRS is concerned about tariffs, potential recession, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S. involvement in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and NATO's future [3] - The pension fund increased its stake in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) by 21,004 shares, or 28%, bringing its total to 95,463 shares valued at $1.87 million as of the end of March [4] Portfolio Adjustments - Despite increasing its position in DJT, CalSTRS reduced its stakes in several top holdings, indicating a defensive strategy focused on fixed income and cash due to economic concerns under Trump [4] - The fund aims for a 30-year target of 7% annual returns to meet retirement obligations, but the stock market drop and underperformance of investments like Trump Media could jeopardize these returns [5] Controversial Holdings - CalSTRS holds significant positions in major companies, including Tesla (1.5% of assets), Apple (6.5%), Microsoft (5.2%), NVIDIA (5.2%), Amazon (3.5%), and Meta (2.5%) [7][9] - The pension fund received numerous requests to divest from Tesla, particularly due to controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk's actions, reflecting growing pressure from stakeholders [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has urged Apple CEO Tim Cook to reduce iPhone production in India and instead increase manufacturing in the United States, which could complicate Apple's global supply chain strategy [1][3][12]. Group 1: Production and Manufacturing - Apple is planning to produce the majority of iPhones sold in the US from India by the end of 2026 to mitigate geopolitical risks and avoid trade disruptions due to US-China tensions [8]. - In the 12 months through March, Apple assembled $22 billion worth of iPhones in India, marking a 60% increase in output compared to the previous year [13]. - Approximately 20% of Apple's global iPhone production, over 40 million units, is now manufactured in India, primarily by Foxconn and Tata Group [13]. Group 2: Investment and Economic Strategy - Apple announced a $500 billion investment in the US economy over four years, which includes creating 20,000 new jobs and establishing a Houston AI server plant [6][9]. - Trump's comments suggest he would allow Apple to produce devices in India for the local market but not for export to the US [13][15]. Group 3: Challenges and Implications - Transitioning production from India or China to the US would be costly and slow due to the complexities of Apple's established supply chain [16]. - Manufacturing in the US is expected to be significantly more expensive than assembling iPhones in India [12].

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) has reported a significant increase in client Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) for April 2025, driven by higher net new accounts and increased trading activity in options and futures contracts [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total client DARTs for April 2025 reached 3,818,000, marking a 63.2% increase compared to April 2024 [1]. - Following the DART announcement on May 1, IBKR shares rose by 2.3%, underperforming the industry but outperforming the Zacks Finance sector [2]. - The company’s net revenues have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% over the last five years (2019-2024) [12]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Client Activity - IBKR has benefited from heightened market volatility and increased client activity due to tariff concerns and rising geopolitical risks [6]. - The momentum in client activity is expected to continue as markets react to tariff impacts across various sectors [6]. Group 3: Product Diversification and Global Expansion - IBKR has extended trading hours for its Forecast Contracts to nearly 24 hours a day, enhancing its trading income [7]. - The company has launched several initiatives, including the introduction of Plan d'Epargne en Actions accounts for French clients and the IBKR GlobalTrader mobile application for global stock trading [8][9]. - The expansion of investment offerings, including mutual funds in the U.K., aims to provide a tax-efficient savings vehicle for investors [7]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - IBKR's technological superiority allows it to process trades across more than 150 exchanges globally [11]. - The company has focused on developing proprietary software to automate broker-dealer functions, contributing to revenue growth [12]. - The introduction of IBKR Desktop marks a significant innovation in its trading platform [9]. Group 5: Valuation and Analyst Sentiment - IBKR shares are currently trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.12X, significantly below the industry average of 2.77X, indicating potential undervaluation [16]. - Despite a recent downward revision in earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 by 3% and 3.2% respectively, the projected figures still imply growth [18][21]. - The company is well-positioned for growth in a volatile operating environment, supported by strong technological capabilities and diversified product offerings [22].

Core Insights - The year has been marked by significant geopolitical and macroeconomic events, particularly highlighted by tariff announcements that have escalated associated risks [1]. Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of in-depth research on various income alternatives, including REITs, mREITs, Preferreds, BDCs, MLPs, and ETFs [1]. - Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert, provides a summary of the current investment landscape, indicating heightened risks due to recent developments [1].

CVR Partners (UAN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 29, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company Participants Richard Roberts - VP - FP&A and IRMark Pytosh - CEO, President & Director of CVR GP LLCDane Neumann - EVP, CFO, Treasurer & Assistant Secretary Conference Call Participants Rob McGuire - Equity Research Analyst Operator Greetings, and welcome to the CVR Partners First Quarter twenty twenty five Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the ...