Welcome back. The S&P 500 NASDAQ hitting record highs this morning as we close out the first half of the year. Joining us now, Apollo global management chief economist Torson Sllock to give his outlook for the economy in the second half of the year.Torson, very good morning to you. Good to see you. Thanks for having me.Um, just that snapshot on what we learned there from Kevin Hasset and the developments over the weekend. Is is your expectation that the big beautiful bill ultimately does whether it's this w ...

Core Insights - Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC) is focusing on advancing its Animal Health business, which is expected to drive growth in the upcoming quarters [1] - The company has shown strong performance with a 39.9% increase in shares over the past year, significantly outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [2] - Recovery in Mineral Nutrition and Performance Products is contributing to overall growth, although macroeconomic conditions remain a concern [1][9] Animal Health Business - Phibro's key animal health products, including Medicated Feed Additives (MFAs) and nutritional specialty products, are enhancing animal nutrition and are crucial for growth [3] - The Animal Health business reported a 42% sales growth year over year, with MFAs and other product sales increasing by 68% [4][8] - Nutritional specialty products saw an 8% increase in net sales, driven by improved domestic dairy demand [4] Global Market Presence - Phibro's operations outside the United States contributed approximately 40% to total revenues during the fiscal third quarter [6] - The company is targeting high-growth regions such as Brazil, China, India, and Southeast Asia, where livestock production growth rates are expected to exceed average levels [5] Mineral Nutrition and Performance Products - The Mineral Nutrition business grew 4% year over year, supported by increased sales volume and pricing [7] - Performance Products experienced a 28% year-over-year sales increase due to rising demand for personal care product ingredients [7][8] Macroeconomic Challenges - Phibro's operations are impacted by economic sanctions, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures, particularly due to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine [9] - The cost of goods sold increased by 32.5% from the prior year, reflecting the adverse macroeconomic environment [9] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) has increased by 1.5% to $2.04, with revenue estimates at $1.28 billion, indicating a 25.6% rise from the previous year [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on aluminium and copper, recommending long-term buying opportunities, while suggesting a bearish trend for gold prices in the coming years [18][33][26]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook is challenging, with high US interest rates constraining growth, but potential stimulatory measures from the US government could improve sentiment and growth in the medium term [15][49]. - Gold prices are expected to consolidate around $3,100-$3,500/oz in the near term, but a decline to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz is anticipated by the second half of 2026 due to decreasing investment demand [18][26]. - Aluminium is projected to have a long-term upside of 20-40%, driven by demand from AI, datacentres, and decarbonization efforts, with limited supply growth expected [18][33][37]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary, Price Forecasts, and Conviction Ideas - Gold's investment demand is at an all-time high, with spending at ~0.5% of global GDP, but is expected to decline as growth sentiment improves [23][24]. - EUAs are forecasted to potentially reach €95/t by year-end, indicating a nearly 30% upside from current prices [18]. Global Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is facing high interest rates, which have constrained growth, but upcoming fiscal measures could stimulate economic activity [15][49]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Iran/Israel conflict, poses risks to oil prices but is not expected to significantly impact the base case scenario [55]. Precious Metals and PGMs - Gold prices are projected to fall by 20-25% by late 2025 and into 2026 as investment demand wanes [26][29]. - The report suggests that gold producers should hedge against potential price declines below $3,600-$3,700/oz [26]. Energy - The report anticipates a 25% Section 232 tariff on copper, which could lead to a premium for Comex copper over LME prices [18][41]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60-65/bbl by the second half of 2025, despite geopolitical tensions [55]. Industrial and Battery Metals - Aluminium is highlighted as a key growth area, with demand expected to outpace supply, leading to potential deficits [33][37]. - Copper is also expected to see significant demand growth, although it may experience short-term weakness due to tariff impacts [18][41]. Agriculture - The report does not provide specific insights on agriculture commodities in this section. Bulks - The report does not provide specific insights on bulks in this section. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a mixed outlook for various commodities, with bullish sentiments for aluminium and copper, while forecasting a decline in gold prices as global growth sentiment improves [18][26][33].

Core Insights - Americold announced a series of executive leadership appointments to enhance operational execution, deepen customer relationships, and unlock global growth opportunities [1][8] Leadership Changes - Rob Chambers has been appointed as the new President, overseeing global operations with increased P&L responsibility [2] - Bryan Verbarendse will succeed Chambers as President, Americas, leading business development and operations across North and South America [4] - Richard Winnall will take charge of the Global Commercial Committee and Operations Committee, working closely with the President, Americas [6] Executive Backgrounds - Rob Chambers has 12 years of leadership experience at Americold, previously serving as Executive Vice President & Chief Commercial Officer and has a background in commercial finance [3] - Bryan Verbarendse joined Americold in August 2023 and has over 31 years of experience in retail and wholesale grocery supply chain [5] - Richard Winnall has been with Americold since 2019, holding various leadership roles and bringing extensive experience from DHL Supply Chain and Linfox [7] Strategic Focus - The leadership appointments reflect Americold's commitment to operational excellence and customer-centric growth [8] - The company aims to harmonize commercial and operational standards globally, ensuring consistent KPIs and scalable systems [6] Company Overview - Americold is a leader in temperature-controlled logistics real estate, owning and/or operating 238 warehouses with approximately 1.4 billion refrigerated cubic feet of storage across multiple regions [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Dollar (USD)** and its expected performance in **2025**, drawing parallels with **2017** and **2018**. The analysis is provided by **Morgan Stanley Research**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **USD Decline in 2017**: The USD declined in 2017 due to trade policy, global growth, and European politics, with fiscal and Fed policy being less supportive than anticipated. Similar factors are expected to contribute to a decline in 2025 [1][4][68]. 2. **Trade Policy**: In 2025, the USD is expected to be negatively impacted by trade policy, similar to 2017. The administration is likely to use tariffs as a negotiation tactic, particularly with China, Canada, and Mexico [77][78][80]. 3. **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is not expected to be fully incorporated into growth expectations until a budget reconciliation bill is passed. This mirrors the situation in 2017, where deficit forecasts remained unchanged until late in the year [4][68][106]. 4. **Global Growth Expectations**: Global growth in 2025 is anticipated to align with expectations, contrasting with the faster-than-expected growth in 2017. This is expected to have a neutral or slightly negative impact on the USD [4][113]. 5. **European Politics**: Political stability in Europe is expected to improve, reducing EUR-negative risk premiums, similar to the underperformance of EU-skeptical parties in 2017 [4][69][117]. 6. **Central Bank Policies**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, while the ECB's policies may lead to a stronger EUR against the USD. This reflects the changes in central bank policies observed in 2017 [4][119][125]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Expectations**: The expectation of gradual increases in tariffs on imports from China and the Euro Area is highlighted, with a focus on the potential impact on the USD [78][99][103]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a significant divergence in investor expectations regarding trade policy, with many believing that tariffs will not escalate as much as previously anticipated [91][92]. 3. **Deficit Forecasts**: The analysis indicates that deficit expectations have widened significantly since the 2024 election, similar to the dynamics observed in 2016-2017 [108][109]. 4. **Market Positioning**: The USD has recently declined due to positioning by investors who expected more aggressive tariff measures than those announced [87][88]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the expected trends in the USD and the influencing factors.