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跨资产-美联储重启资产购买决定的影响是什么-Cross-Asset Brief-What's the Impact of the Fed's Decision to Restart Asset Purchases
2026-01-06 02:23
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of macroeconomic factors on various asset classes, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, U.S. economic growth, and commodity markets, including metals and currencies. Core Insights and Arguments Federal Reserve's Asset Purchases - The Fed's decision to restart asset purchases at a rate of $40 billion per month aims to enhance control over short-term interest rates during periods of market stress, which is expected to support front-end liquidity and sensitive risk assets [9][2][8] U.S. Economic Growth Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth in Q3 2025 surprised to the upside at 4.3% quarter-over-quarter, compared to a consensus of 3.3%. This growth is attributed to strong consumption and exports, with firms passing through tariff costs by raising prices, which is expected to lower downside risks to the labor market and support a growth rebound in 2026 [14][3][16] Metals Market Sustainability - The recent rally in metals is deemed sustainable, driven by demand from AI-related power consumption. Data centers are projected to consume 500,000 tons of copper in 2025, increasing to approximately 740,000 tons in 2026, contributing significantly to copper demand growth [19][20] Japanese Yen and Interest Rates - A weaker Japanese Yen could lead to a deeper sell-off in long-end Japanese government bonds (JGBs). The Bank of Japan's lack of urgency regarding rate hikes may create perceptions of being behind the curve on inflation, potentially exacerbating the depreciation of the Yen [22][24] UK Inflation and Bank of England - UK inflation fell to 3.2% year-over-year in November, leading to expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England in Q1 2026. The inflation drop is attributed to seasonal effects and a rapid decline in food prices [26][27] Other Important Insights - The Fed's asset purchases are not classified as quantitative easing but are intended to improve liquidity conditions in the money market [9] - The potential for further price increases by U.S. corporates is anticipated through Q1 2026, with core CPI inflation expected to rise to 3.0% early next year [14] - The discussion highlights the sensitivity of risk assets to liquidity conditions, as evidenced by the widening of 2-year UST SOFR swap spreads following the Fed's announcement [10][12] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and its implications for various asset classes.
美国经济分-2026 年通胀展望:向目标迈进-US Economics Analyst_ 2026 Inflation Outlook_ Traveling Toward Target
2026-01-06 02:23
4 January 2026 | 5:40PM EST Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST 2026 Inflation Outlook: Traveling Toward Target Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Progress on core PCE inflation stalled this year at 2.8% ...
欧元区 2026 年展望:周期性提振、结构性拖累,利率维持不变-t_ Euro Area Outlook 2026_ Cyclical Boost, Structural Drag, Unchanged Rates
2026-01-06 02:23
5 January 2026 | 6:05AM GMT Economics Research EUROPEAN ECONOMICS ANALYST Euro Area Outlook 2026: Cyclical Boost, Structural Drag, Unchanged Rates Sven Jari Stehn +44(20)7774-8061 | jari.stehn@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Filippo Taddei +44(20)7774-5458 | filippo.taddei@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alexandre Stott +33(1)4212-1108 | alexandre.stott@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch Katya Vashkinskaya +44(20)7774-4833 | katya.vashkinskaya@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovann ...
Credit card interest rate forecast for 2026: Rate cuts will bring little relief to cardholders
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-06 00:01
The average credit card interest rate isn’t likely to drop quite as much as the federal funds rate , since the credit card average includes new customer offers. Most credit cards have variable rates that consist of a percentage added to the federal funds rate. So, when the Fed rate falls, rates on existing cards follow. But when it comes to new card offers, a card issuer can simply tweak the rate formula — therefore, hiking up interest rates for new cardholders and raising the average. Issuers often charge ...
Dollar Pulls Back as US Manufacturing Activity Contracts
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-05 20:32
The dollar index (DXY00) fell from a 3-week high on Monday and finished down by -0.16%. The dollar retreated on Monday after the US Dec ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly contracted by the most in fourteen months. Also, Monday’s rally in stocks curbed liquidity demand for the dollar. The dollar on Monday initially moved higher as the escalation of geopolitical risks in Venezuela boosted safe-haven demand for the dollar after the US captured Venezuelan President Maduro, and US President Trump said the ...
Current personal loan statistics in 2025
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-05 20:19
While most personal loan interest rates are fixed, federal rate changes and inflation do impact interest rates for new loan borrowers, although indirectly. As the cost of living rises and more Americans take on personal loan debt, it is important for consumers to understand how inflation and federal rate changes can affect their loans. Understanding current interest rate statistics and personal loan information can help you better plan for your own borrowing needs and get the best out of your loan. Bank ...
Two new studies offer a surprising answer to the question of whether tariffs cause inflation
WSJ· 2026-01-05 20:14
A blow to consumer and business demand likely explains why tariffs' impact on inflation is limited. ...
Is $10 Million the New Baseline for a Care-Free Retirement in America?
Yahoo Finance· 2026-01-05 18:25
So, to determine if $10 million would provide a care-free retirement, you have to decide if having $370K in retirement money is going to be enough to make you feel financially secure.If you follow this guideline and you have $10 million invested, your account would provide $370K in income. Of course, you'd have to take taxes into account, so you couldn't necessarily spend that much -- but you'd still have a fairly decent amount of money coming in, especially if you were also collecting Social Security benef ...
3 Transport-Service Stocks to Monitor Despite Industry Headwinds
ZACKS· 2026-01-05 16:26
The Zacks Transportation-Services industry is operating in a difficult environment, pressured by weak freight rates, persistently high inflation and ongoing supply-chain disruptions. Adding to these headwinds are tariff-related uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, which continue to pose significant challenges for the industry. However, despite these near-term concerns, there is an underlying case for long-term optimism. Supported by strong fundamentals, companies such as Expeditors International of Wash ...
美国经济-2026 年通胀展望:向目标迈进-US Economics Analyst_ 2026 Inflation Outlook_ Traveling Toward Target
2026-01-05 15:43
4 January 2026 | 5:40PM EST Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST 2026 Inflation Outlook: Traveling Toward Target c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a82b5aa6b9f6 n Progress on core PCE inflation stalled this year at 2.8% year-over-year, still noticeably above the F ...