There’s now a 90% chance the FED will cut rates in September.Expect Bitcoin and Altcoins to go parabolic! https://t.co/Dd56eSJiWc ...

Well, earning season is showing us whether economic uncertainty is having an impact on companies and consumers. But do the results reflect what the recent macro data is signaling. Let's bring in JP Morgan asset management chief global strategist David Kelly and Bonson Group chief investment officer David Bonson.David's welcome. Uh David Bonson, Palanteer. We're going to get the results pretty darn soon.You argue it's run too far, but does this market need names like Palunteer to defy gravity if the market's ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current sentiment and positioning of funds in the U.S. precious metals futures market, highlighting a shift towards net long positions in gold and silver while palladium remains in a prolonged net short position [1][2][8]. Group 1: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - As of last Tuesday, net long positions in U.S. precious metals futures have increased due to a reduction in short positions, with gold reaching a net long of 531 tons, the highest in 16 weeks, and silver at 7,039 tons, the highest in three weeks [2][7]. - The gold fund's long positions increased by 15% week-on-week, while short positions decreased by 3%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [7]. - The palladium fund remains in a net short position of 8 tons, marking the highest level of net short positions in 38 weeks, and has been in a net short position for 134 consecutive weeks [8]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent improvements in U.S. economic indicators, such as employment data and consumer confidence, have led to a rise in risk appetite among investors, favoring investments in silver, platinum, and digital currencies [2][27]. - The market currently estimates a 34.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on September 17, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year [24][27]. - The article notes that inflation data is beginning to rise, which could complicate the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [27][30]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The gold price has accumulated a 30.7% increase year-to-date, while silver prices have risen by 36.0% during the same period [7][11]. - The article highlights a significant divergence in performance between gold and silver, with the gold-to-silver ratio indicating market sentiment, currently at 87.465, reflecting a high level of risk aversion [22][23]. - The article suggests that if gold prices continue to rise while mining stocks decline, it may signal caution for investors [21].

Core Insights - The recent sale of a modest four-bedroom brick house in Merrylands, Sydney, for AUD 1.98 million has gone viral, highlighting the extreme conditions of the Sydney housing market [1][3] - The median house price in Sydney surged by 2.6% in the second quarter, reaching a record AUD 1.7 million, marking the largest increase in two years [9] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The auction attracted over 14 registered bidders, indicating high demand despite the house's ordinary appearance [3][12] - The real estate agent noted that the initial market feedback suggested a sale price of around AUD 1 million, with expectations of AUD 1.5 to 1.6 million, but the final price exceeded expectations significantly [10][12] - The current market conditions are characterized by a strong demand for family homes in well-located areas, with buyers motivated by fears of rising prices due to interest rate decreases [14] Group 2: Seller and Buyer Sentiment - Sellers are increasingly reluctant to negotiate on price, reflecting a shift in mindset compared to two to three years ago when they were more eager to sell [14] - The selling agent expressed that the sellers were very satisfied with the final price, especially as they plan to upgrade to a larger home [12] - Buyers are feeling the pressure of escalating prices, with sentiments of frustration and concern about affordability becoming prevalent [5][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold, silver, and platinum, while also highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks and U.S. economic data on commodity prices [2][28]. Group 1: Precious Metals Market Sentiment - The sentiment towards precious metals is influenced by various factors, including geopolitical risks and U.S. economic indicators, which have led to fluctuations in prices [2][28]. - As of July 15, 2023, the net long positions in COMEX gold increased by 6.5% to 447 tons, marking the highest level since September 2019 [3][7]. - The net long positions in COMEX silver rose by 1.0% to 6,831 tons, continuing a streak of 73 weeks in net long positions [3][7]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Their Impact - Recent positive U.S. economic data, including consumer confidence and employment figures, have contributed to a 1.54% rebound in the U.S. dollar index over the past two weeks, indirectly limiting gold price increases [2][28]. - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which has been a significant factor in the recent bullish sentiment in the stock market [28]. Group 3: Commodity Price Predictions - The article suggests that international prices for commodities like rare earth materials could rise, especially following the U.S. government's investment in MP Materials and a long-term supply contract at a price significantly above Chinese rates [2][19]. - Predictions for copper prices have been adjusted due to changing market conditions, including potential tariffs and economic recession concerns [18][28]. Group 4: Market Trends and Ratios - The gold-to-North American mining stock ratio has shown a recovery, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20][22]. - The gold-silver ratio, a measure of market sentiment, has increased to 87.746, reflecting heightened risk awareness among investors [24]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the future direction of gold prices, including economic recovery leading to a peak in gold prices, continued stagflation, or uncontrolled inflation leading to asset bubbles [28][30][32]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic policies are expected to create volatility in the market, particularly concerning the relationship between the Federal Reserve and political influences [30][31].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly in relation to interest rate cuts. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Cut Proposal**: Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis points cut in the funds rate at the upcoming July meeting, citing three main reasons [2][3][8] 2. **Inflation Expectations**: Waller believes that the inflation increase due to tariffs will be temporary and should be "looked through," as the slowing economy may limit persistent inflation boosts [2][3] 3. **GDP Growth Projections**: Waller estimates GDP growth at around 1% for the first half of 2025, indicating that growth will remain soft throughout the year. He argues that the policy rate should be close to neutral rather than restrictive [3][8] 4. **Labor Market Concerns**: There are signs of increasing downside risks in the labor market, with private payroll growth near stall speed. Waller anticipates significant downward revisions to nonfarm payrolls, estimating a potential reduction of 500-700k jobs [7][8] 5. **Diverse Opinions Among FOMC Members**: Other FOMC participants express varying views on rate cuts, with some suggesting to maintain the current policy rate until more clarity on inflation trends emerges [8][9] 6. **Future Rate Cut Expectations**: The expectation is for three consecutive 25 basis points cuts in September, October, and December of this year, followed by two additional cuts in 2026, leading to a terminal funds rate range of 3-3.25% [5][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Waller's comments reflect a broader concern about the labor market's health and its implications for monetary policy, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to rate cuts [7][8] - The discussion highlights the complexity of the current economic environment, where inflation, GDP growth, and labor market conditions are interlinked and require careful monitoring [3][8] - The differing perspectives among FOMC members indicate a lack of consensus on the timing and necessity of rate cuts, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [8][9]

金十数据7月16日讯，凯投宏观分析师Ruth Gregory在报告中写道，尽管英国年度物价通胀率意外上 升，但英国央行仍有可能进一步降息。数据显示，6月份的年度CPI通胀率从5月份的3.4%上升至3.6%。 这主要是由于油价上涨导致汽油价格上涨。尽管如此，英国经济的疲软仍将使英国央行继续走季度降息 的道路。她说："风险在于，若通胀持续性超预期，可能导致降息步伐较我们预测更缓、幅度更小甚至 进程中止。" 凯投宏观：英国经济疲软仍将促使英国央行降息 ...

但如果接下来的数据发生变化，美联储将不得不在更长时间维持利率不变。 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官Chris Zaccarelli：如果美国通胀压力确实持续可控，美联储可能 会推进降息，最早或在9月行动。 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has surged to a record high of nearly $112,000, driven by growing risk appetite and sustained institutional demand [2] - The cryptocurrency market is supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, which has seen a decline of 10.65% over the past six months [4] - Anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is boosting investor confidence in digital currencies, with a 68.3% likelihood of a rate cut in September [6] Institutional Adoption - Increasing interest from institutional investors is sending a positive signal to the market, reflecting confidence in digital currency [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three quarter-point rate cuts this year, which could further enhance investor risk appetite [6] Regulatory Environment - Pro-crypto moves by the Trump administration and expectations of Congress passing crypto legislation are leading to fresh capital inflows into the sector [7] - The U.S. House of Representatives is preparing to consider key digital asset bills, including the Genius Act and the CLARITY Act, which aim to establish regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and clarify the boundaries between regulatory bodies [8][9] Market Dynamics - A tech-driven equity rally, particularly led by Nvidia, has also contributed to Bitcoin's record high [3] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen 1.4% over the past month, indicating a weakening dollar that benefits cryptocurrencies [4] Investment Opportunities - Several ETFs are available for investors looking to increase exposure to digital currencies, including iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) [10][11] - IBIT has the largest asset base of $76.31 billion and has outperformed other funds, gaining 54.86% over the past year [12]

V i e w p o i n t | 07 Jul 2025 10:45:34 ET │ 9 pages US Economics FOMC Minutes Preview – Preparing to lower interest rates CITI'S TAKE Minutes from the 17–18 June FOMC meeting are likely to be more in keeping with dovish post-meeting statements from Powell and other Fed officials than Powell's more neutral post-meeting press conference. Last week's strong jobs report makes a cut this month unlikely, in our view. We continue to expect cuts to resume in September, with 125bp of cuts delivered through March o ...