(Subtitles may contain inaccuracies) We had President Lee saying that the BOK did the right thing when it held rates steady instead of cutting rates because that would boost the property market further. Saying the property market is a ticking time bomb. What's your take on whether or not the property sector is in fact one of the considerations for your monetary policy decisions.Yes. Definitely property prices, especially in metropolitan area and Seoul, affect the financial stability. And price stability is ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, amid economic uncertainties and potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. It highlights the implications of geopolitical factors and market dynamics on commodity prices, especially in light of recent developments in U.S.-China relations and the upcoming Federal Reserve decisions [2][28][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions is only updated until September 23, indicating a prevailing expectation of a rate cut in December [2][28]. - Recent concerns over AI stock valuations have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market, with rumors suggesting premeditated actions by influential figures to manipulate asset prices [2][28]. - Gold prices have shown signs of bottoming out, currently fluctuating around $4000, with market sentiment expected to play a crucial role in the coming weeks [2][28]. Group 2: Strategic Metal Developments - China will implement a quota and joint approval system for the export of tungsten, antimony, and silver starting in November, while the U.S. has classified copper, uranium, coal, and silver as strategic metals [2][28]. - This shift indicates a growing recognition of silver's importance, suggesting it may gain a more significant status beyond being merely a "poor man's gold" [2][28]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions and Influences - If Trump can secure control over the Federal Reserve next year, gold prices are expected to have further upward potential, as current indicators suggest he may succeed [3][29]. - The article posits that the market is not fully reflecting the potential for interest rates to drop to 1%, which could lead to increased investment in commodities, particularly gold [29][30]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - The article notes that historically, mining stocks have lagged behind the actual commodity prices, a trend attributed to the rising emphasis on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors in investment decisions [22][30]. - The gold-to-mining stock ratio has shown fluctuations, indicating potential market corrections and the need for investors to monitor these trends closely [19][21]. Group 5: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in December has decreased from 97.1% to 67.2%, with expectations for potential cuts in early 2024 [26][28]. - The article emphasizes that the market's perception of future interest rate movements is critical for commodity investments, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures [34].

The U.S. Federal Reserve is in rate-cutting mode, with two 25-bps interest rate reductions already in the books. ...

The UK’s weakening labor market is prompting more economists to pencil in a December interest-rate cut from the Bank of England, with the speculation putting 10-year gilts on track for their best day since June https://t.co/kS8LmfNAmO ...

The latest jobs data suggests that the UK labour market is continuing to cool, with unemployment now hitting 5%, higher than had been forecast. A December interest rate cut may now be on the cards. What does that mean for your money? https://t.co/9LaN4BEbGN ...

Market Performance - Broad market indices ended last week lower, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both losing 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.2%. Technology stocks were the largest losers, with the Nasdaq Composite down 3% [2] - Stocks managed to recoup losses on Friday after being down significantly early in the day, with the S&P 500 bouncing off a key support level at 6670 [3] Economic Indicators - The government shutdown may be coming to an end, which could salvage the holiday season despite the total damage from the shutdown still being assessed [3] - Third-quarter earnings are on pace to rise 13.1% year-over-year, significantly surpassing initial estimates of just under 8% [4] - Despite strong earnings growth, market valuations remain extended, with the S&P 500's 12-month forward-looking P/E ratio at 22.7, above its 5- and 10-year averages of 20 and 18.6, respectively [5] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Layoffs are accelerating, and net job growth may be negative, contributing to a sharp drop in consumer sentiment, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index at 50.3, one of the lowest levels recorded [5] - The current employment situation is uncertain due to the government shutdown, but private estimates suggest job growth is at best anemic [5] Legislative Developments - The Senate is close to passing a resolution to reopen the government, which would require agreement from the House, raising concerns about potential delays [6] - A resumption of normal government functions would allow for better assessment of the broader economic picture, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - There is currently a 65% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 10th, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool [6] Market Sentiment - Markets are optimistic about a potential deal in Congress, with equities trading higher by around 1% in the premarket [7] - If the legislation fails to pass, the 6670 level in the S&P 500 may be tested again [8]

trending altcoins, pump.fun. Photo by BeInCrypto The Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its downtrend and reached seven-month lows near 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD), before GBP/USD buyers quickly jumped in and recovered some ground.  Pound Sterling rebounded; not out of the woods yet Safe-haven flows returned with a bang and acted as a strong headwind to the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling while boosting the US Dollar to its highest in five months against its six major currency rivals. “Sell everything” ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global real estate index declined by 1.5% last month, underperforming global equities by 390 basis points [2][11] - The underperformance is attributed to concerns regarding future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Year-to-date performance shows Asia as the best-performing region (+25.6%), followed by Europe (+18.2%) and the US (+2.8%) in USD terms [2] Regional Performance - Europe outperformed with a +1.2% return, while the US and Asia saw declines of -1.6% and -1.8%, respectively [2] - Industrial real estate led the performance for the month with a +5.3% return, driven by a rebound in logistics leasing activity [2][3] - Residential real estate lagged with a -5.9% return due to soft operations in the US and rate sensitivity in Europe [2] Company Insights - UBS has initiated coverage on UAE real estate, giving Buy ratings to Aldar and Emaar [2] - The UBS 28th Annual Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference is scheduled for December 2-3, 2025, in London, featuring 70 global real estate management teams [2] Valuation Metrics - The global real estate sector is estimated to have an ~11% return as of October 31, 2025, with a 6.9% discount to NAV [4] - The 2025E P/E ratio is projected at 20.3x, with a 2025E DPS yield of 3.7% and 2024-25E EPS growth of 8.8% [4] Top Picks - Notable top picks include Keppel DC REIT, CapitaLand Ascendas, and Emaar Properties among others across various regions [5] Sector-Specific Trends - In Asia, the residential property market in mainland China remains weak, while Hong Kong's office market is improving due to active hiring [37] - Private REITs in China are expected to offer greater flexibility and fewer regulatory constraints compared to public REITs, creating new capital recycling opportunities [38] - Japanese REIT sponsors are noted for facilitating external growth, often offering assets at discounts to enhance accretion [39] Australia/New Zealand Market - Australian real estate was flat over the last month, outperforming global averages by 1.5 percentage points [40] - A-REIT performance was volatile, with expectations for a rate cut affecting market sentiment [41] - Notable performers included CNI (+6.8%) and INA (+3.3%), while ARF (-5.9%) and CLW (-3.4%) underperformed [43] Singapore Market - Singapore REITs raised approximately S$4 billion in 2025 YTD, indicating strong investor confidence [52] - The residential market is seeing buyers moving up price points, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [53] Japan Market - Japan's real estate returned +0.4% over the last month, outperforming global averages [58] - The new Prime Minister's policies may impact the housing market, with a focus on foreign investment regulations [59] China Market - The top 100 developers in China saw contract sales decline by 41% YoY in October 2025, indicating ongoing weakness in the property market [71] - CR Mixc has been upgraded to Buy due to its ability to identify emerging brands and signs of luxury retail recovery [72] Conclusion - The global real estate sector is facing challenges due to macroeconomic factors, but certain regions and sectors are showing resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming conference and ongoing evaluations of REITs and property markets will provide further insights into investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, particularly in relation to government bonds and credit bonds, as well as the implications of recent regulatory changes and economic indicators on the market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Long-term Trends in Bond Yields**: The long-term trend of government bond yields in China is downward, despite fluctuations in CPI and PPI. The overall environment remains deflationary, which is favorable for the bond market [2][19][20]. 2. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: The anticipated changes in punitive redemption fees for institutional investors are expected to shift from 6 months to 3 months, which may enhance market sentiment once the uncertainty is resolved [3][4]. 3. **Public Fund Dividend Policy**: The tax exemption policy for public fund dividends is likely to remain in place in the short term, stabilizing the investment scale of bank-managed bond funds [5]. 4. **Credit Bond Market Differentiation**: There is a noticeable differentiation in the credit bond market, with industrial bonds performing well while bank capital bonds are adjusting. This is linked to the liquidity and structural changes in the market due to the opening period of amortized cost bond funds [7][8]. 5. **Future Allocation of Bonds**: An estimated allocation of approximately 500 billion yuan towards urban investment and industrial bonds is expected in the coming years, which may negatively impact the National Development Bank bonds [9]. 6. **Banking Sector Dynamics**: The banking sector is experiencing a significant shift towards financial investments, with the total balance reaching 101 trillion yuan, accounting for 31% of total assets. This trend is expected to continue, with financial investments potentially reaching 50% in the next 10-20 years [13][15]. 7. **Interest Rate Expectations**: There is a strong expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates, likely occurring in December or January, which would further push down the yields on 10-year government bonds [11][18]. 8. **Inflation Data Impact**: Future CPI and PPI data are not expected to significantly impact the bond market, as historical trends indicate that even high CPI levels did not lead to substantial changes in bond yields [19][20]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Real Estate Market Influence**: The ongoing decline in the real estate market, with significant drops in property prices and rents, is likely to contribute to a prolonged period of low consumer prices, affecting overall economic sentiment [22]. 2. **Comparative Analysis with Japan**: The records draw parallels between China's current economic situation and Japan's past experiences with deflation, suggesting that China may remain in a deflationary environment for the foreseeable future unless significant policy changes occur [21][23]. 3. **Banking Sector's Response to Low Interest Rates**: The decline in deposit rates has led to a significant reduction in banks' overall funding costs, making high-yield local government bonds more attractive [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the Chinese bond market and its related sectors.

Market Overview - Pre-market trading has declined, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards AI infrastructure spending and a lack of economic data, particularly during what was expected to be Jobs Week [1] - The market has seen a downward trend over the past five days, moving away from all-time highs reached in late October [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unavailable due to a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a loss of 60,000 jobs last month [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, while hourly wages are anticipated to remain steady at a year-over-year increase of 0.3% [2] - ADP reported an addition of 42,000 new jobs, which is better than BLS estimates but still indicates a weak labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated 153,000 job cuts, highlighting ongoing challenges in employment [3] Interest Rate Expectations - There is a tentative expectation for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in approximately 4.5 weeks, although market indexes may have already priced in this cut [4] - The "neutral rate" of inflation is uncertain but is believed to be higher than the optimal 2% [4] Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported Q3 earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding expectations by 20%, leading to a 9% increase in shares [5] - Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) posted earnings of $3.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 46.4%, although shares are down 2% in early trading [5] - Fluor (FLR) reported Q3 earnings of $0.68 per share, beating expectations by 54.55%, with shares up 4.6% in pre-market trading [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share, falling short of the anticipated $3.13, resulting in a 6.3% decline in shares [7] - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares increased by 12% despite reporting a loss of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the expected loss of $0.10 [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November is expected to show a slight decrease to 53.0 from 53.6, remaining above the neutral threshold of 50 [9] - Consumer credit for September is projected to total $10.0 billion [9]