The May non-farm payrolls report was stronger than expected, but it still reinforced the idea that the employment landscape is losing momentum. While the headline data was stronger than expected, it was still lower than last month's figure, which was revised even lower. Combined with the strong wage growth figure and a lower labor force participation rate, this data could signal that employers are pulling back on hiring in response to tighter financial conditions, but also incentivizing their current labor ...

Retail Sector Overview - U.S. retail sales grew 0.1% in April after a revised 1.7% increase in March, with a year-over-year rise of 5.2% [3] - Online store sales increased by 2% in April, while food services and drinking places saw a 1.2% rise [3] - The retail sector has shown resilience despite challenges from tariffs and consumer sentiment [4] Impact of Tariffs and Trade Deals - A temporary pause on tariffs was announced after the U.S. and China reached a trade truce, which is expected to benefit the retail sector [1][6] - The retail sector's growth was hindered by fears of tariffs, but upcoming trade deals may provide a boost [5] Inflation and Economic Outlook - U.S. consumer inflation showed signs of cooling, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% in April and 2.3% year-over-year, the smallest gain since February 2021 [7] - Lower inflation rates may lead to potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would positively impact the retail sector and the broader economy [8] Investment Opportunities in Retail Stocks - Recommended retail stocks include Maplebear Inc. (CART), PC Connection, Inc. (CNXN), Carvana Co. (CVNA), and Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN), all showing positive earnings estimate revisions [2] - Maplebear Inc. has an expected earnings growth rate of 7.6% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank of 2 [10] - PC Connection has an expected earnings growth rate of 6.8% for the current year, also holding a Zacks Rank of 2 [11] - Carvana Co. is projected to have over 100% earnings growth next year, with a Zacks Rank of 2 [13] - Nordstrom has an expected earnings growth rate of 1.8% for the current year, maintaining a Zacks Rank of 2 [15]

4 May 2025 | 6:57PM EDT US Daily: May FOMC Preview: A Higher Bar for Rate Cuts (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.pen ...

Earnings Reports - Apple (AAPL) is expected to provide insights on the China-US tariff situation, which is crucial given its manufacturing exposure [3][4] - Amazon (AMZN) will also report earnings, with a focus on trade tariff commentary and AWS performance as key indicators [5] - Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) are set to report, with Microsoft being viewed as potentially tariff-proof due to its software-centric business model [6] Economic Data - GDP data for the first quarter is scheduled for release, which could influence broader market discussions, especially if a contraction is reported [8] - The PCE index will be released, serving as an important inflation gauge; a steady or declining inflation rate may lead to considerations for rate cuts [9] - Employment data is also forthcoming, which is seen as a critical indicator of the current economic situation, contrasting with the backward-looking GDP data [10]