Financial Performance - Lowe's earnings exceeded forecasts [1] Sales Performance - Higher sales to both construction professionals and DIY customers [1]

Let's ask Wharton School professor of finance Jeremy Seagull. He's also chief economist for Wisdom Tree. Welcome back.It's nice to see you as always. Good to see you, Scott. You still like this market. Yeah, I I still like it.I I I think there were a little some disappointments today. I actually think uh the Bloomberg report that maybe Waller is the top candidate uh rather than War. uh he uh uh is not seen as uh uh dovish for Fed chair and I think that that kind of discouraged the market may a little bit co ...

Investment Decisions - Malcolm sold Iron Mountain due to concerns that its stock price would decline post-earnings report, similar to the reactions of big banks and big tech companies after their earnings releases [2] - The investor had held Iron Mountain for a year with only a 3% dividend return, and its valuation compared to peers in the XLR was not promising for significant growth [3] - Prolis was also sold because it had been a stagnant stock for the year it was held [7] - The investor used the proceeds from the sales to buy ASML, positioning for future opportunities, anticipating a rate cut that would benefit fintech companies [6] Market Sentiment and Expectations - Expectations for some stocks had become too high [4] - Market sentiment suggests investors are taking profits and anticipating a pullback [5] - Consensus indicates the market is overdue for a pullback [5] Real Estate Market Analysis - Prolis boasts about a 95% vacancy rate, but the industry-wide vacancy rate is increasing [7] ETF Performance - The ETF has repeatedly invested in a particular stock (unnamed) but has not seen positive results [8]

Earnings and Market Performance - 66% of companies have reported earnings, with 82% beating on the top line and 68% beating on the bottom line [2] - Year-over-year growth is running at approximately 82% [2] - Market experienced a slight pullback after a 29% increase leading up to earnings reports [3] - Expectation of market volatility for the next two months, influenced by seasonal factors and Federal Reserve decisions [3] - Setup into the end of the year is anticipated to be positive, presenting opportunities in stocks like Caterpillar and Eaton [4] Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy - Market initially focused on growth concerns due to jobs numbers but recovered quickly [5] - A potential rate cut in September with a 42% unemployment rate would be a favorable scenario [5] - Non-farm payroll report is backward-looking; weekly jobless claims are a more forward-looking indicator [6] - The 4-week moving average of weekly jobless claims is at 220000, up from 200000 six months ago, but down from a recent spike to 245000 [6][7] - Economy is growing above trend at approximately 21% according to the Atlanta Fed tracker [8] - Above-trend growth and slightly higher inflation are preferable for equity portfolio management and earnings [8] Tariffs, Onshoring, and Capital Expenditure - Potential positive impacts of tariffs include increased manufacturing onshoring and reshoring [10] - Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are projected to spend $400 billion on AI and capex this year [11]

Macroeconomic Outlook - A weaker dollar is generally beneficial for manufacturing and S&P 500 revenues, with approximately 30% of S&P 500 revenues originating from abroad [2] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase inflation by roughly 05 percentage points over the next 9 months, posing a challenge given existing inflation levels [3] - The M2 money supply is growing at its fastest rate since 2022, indicating substantial liquidity seeking assets and yield [4] - The debate centers on whether recent sentiment improvements are sufficient for continued S&P 500 growth, considering headwinds from tariffs and student loan payments restarting [5] Labor Market Dynamics - The consensus expects 100,000 new jobs next Friday, which is still steady job growth [7] - Private sector job growth has slowed down in recent months, raising concerns about the labor market's health [7] - Deportations running at an annualized rate of approximately 1 million people could reduce job growth [7] - The break-even level for long-run non-farm payrolls is estimated to be around 70,000, lower than the 200,000 in 2023 and 2024 [9] Inflation and Pricing Pressures - The market is actively debating inflation, with the expectation of a 27% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reading next week [10] - There is an expectation of a meaningful increase in inflation over the next several months, particularly in imported goods like footwear, apparel, toys, and tools [11] - Companies are currently paying approximately $400 billion annually in tariffs, impacting either consumers through higher prices or companies through lower earnings [14] - Retailers, particularly those affected by tariffs, are expected to experience margin pressure and potentially lower sales [16]

Earnings Discussion - The segment discusses big tech earnings on deck [1] Market Analysis - The segment analyzes how to balance recent data from Google [1]

Market Outlook - European earnings outlook appropriately reflects tariff risks [1] - Rally is expected to extend in the absence of a trade shock [1]