My next guest is expecting all of this bullish momentum to continue. He says investors should look past any soft patches and focus on what's warning. Jim Karen working.Jim Karen is CIO of Cross Asset Solutions at Morgan Stanley Investment Manager. I'm not saying you're recommending Bitcoin. Maybe you are.I don't know. I'm not and it's not part of it. Uh Palunteer.No. Um what is driving this momentum. Is it you know I the little fear and greed index is back to I think greed or extreme greed levels.Um but wha ...

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

Schneider, senior U.S. Portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs. Ben, great to have you here. Good morning.We got to start off with the news. You're changing your S&P price targets for three months, six months. And also the next year let's do the 12 month horizon 6900 double digit.About a 1,011% rise from here. What is the catalyst. Right now we're already at all time highs.That's right. >> And when we sent out this note to clients, the real message was even though the S&P 500 has rallied by 25% over the last ...

Market Trends & Diversification - NASDAQ hits a record high, with Nvidia reaching a $4 trillion market cap, prompting a discussion on diversification beyond tech and large-cap stocks [1][2] - The narrative of US exceptionalism is considered overblown, suggesting opportunities outside the US market [3][4] - The market may be underreacting to tariff risks, with earnings reports after July 15th expected to provide more clarity [11][12] Investment Opportunities - Opportunities exist in smaller cap companies, particularly those domestically oriented, potentially benefiting from isolated trade impacts and faster AI implementation [6][7] - Small caps are trading at a significant discount, with EV to sales ratios about half that of large caps, indicating potential for earnings growth and valuation expansion [8] - Security-related sectors, including cyber, food, water, and defense, along with AI, present compelling investment themes [10][11] Small Cap Analysis - An active approach to small-cap investing is favored, rather than solely relying on indices like the Russell 2000 [6] - Smaller cap companies may benefit more quickly from declining rates due to their higher proportion of floating-rate debt [7] - Small-cap banks are crucial for the overall performance of the small-cap sector, presenting an interesting investment opportunity [15][16] Alternative Investments - Private credit is highlighted as an all-weather strategy, with interest shifting from direct lending to niche sectors like real estate debt and asset-backed securities [19][20] - A quantitative approach to analyzing markets, especially small caps, is recommended to synthesize data effectively [17]

Market Outlook - Verdens Capital advisors haven't set a specific S&P 500 target for a year, focusing on earnings as the primary driver [3] - The market's continued record highs, despite unresolved tariff issues, make the industry cautious about the second half of the year [6] - Concerns exist regarding the long-term economic impact of global debt exceeding 100% of GDP in many developed economies [8] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The industry notes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to delay interest rate cuts due to uncertainty regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [9][10] - The potential September rate cut by the Fed is now viewed as a 50-50 chance, contingent on upcoming data and tariff implications [15] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by the need to balance concerns about slowing growth and a potentially cracking labor market with the unknown impact of tariffs on inflation [12][13][14] Trade and Tariffs - The market initially reacted negatively to the Trump administration's worst-case tariff scenarios, but rebounded when less severe outcomes materialized [5][6] - The postponement of tariffs to August delays the Fed's ability to assess their impact on inflation [9] - The ultimate impact of tariffs on businesses and consumers remains uncertain, requiring a wait-and-see approach [14]

Group 1 - Netflix is expected to announce Q2 2025 earnings on July 17, 2025, with revenues projected at approximately $11 billion, a 15% increase year-over-year, and earnings projected at $7.06 per share, up from $4.88 last year [2] - The revenue growth is attributed to recent price hikes and increasing advertising revenue, with the standard HD plan price raised by $2.50 to $18 per month and the Premium plan increased to $25 per month [2] - Netflix's advertising technology enhancements, including the launch of an in-house ad tech platform in the U.S. in April, are expected to improve ad capabilities and pricing realizations [2] Group 2 - Content costs for Netflix are anticipated to rise this year, as the company expands into live sports, which may lead to higher production and licensing expenses [3] - Netflix's current market capitalization stands at $551 billion, with total revenue over the last twelve months at $40 billion, operating profits at $11 billion, and net income at $9.3 billion [4] Group 3 - Historical data shows that Netflix has had 19 earnings data points in the past five years, with 42% resulting in positive one-day returns, which increases to 64% over the past three years [5] - The median of the positive one-day returns is 11%, while the median of the negative returns is -6.9% [5] Group 4 - A strategy to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can be beneficial, particularly if the 1D and 5D returns exhibit high correlation [6]

streaming. Go to CNBC. com plus now.>> Welcome back. Tech stocks driving the S&P 500 today to a new intraday high yet again. Our next guest says to stick with those winners in the second half of the year.Joining us now at post nine is Michael Pappas of Advisors at Rockefeller. Welcome back. Great.So you still want to ride this this winning trade. Why so. Look, I just think.>> Again technology is changing everything that we have. The metrics have actually changed in the way we evaluate jobs. I think this is ...

What's being priced in. I mean, essentially, any time we get clarity, people say, oh, that's priced in. But the clarity is different every single day, whether it's the clarity of what kind of rate we're talking about with tariffs or the clarity of how big the US deficit is going to be, All of these worries that we had earlier in the year that are now being shrugged off as priced in, how do you determine between rational versus numb.I think it is entirely rational because when we look, for example, at what i ...

Are there going to be marketked market implications given what we already know about the big beautiful bill. There certainly will. I think the biggest one will be removing some uncertainty.So I think it's been pretty consensus that the bill would get through. I think that's why you're seeing a little bit of a muted reaction this morning. Um I think most corners will will be breathe a sigh of relief.And the main thing is we set the playing field for the second half of the year. So we'll know what the legisla ...

Welcome back. Stocks begin the second half with a good amount of momentum. Can it last is the question.Let's ask Abby Yoder. She's chief equity strategist at JP Morgan Private. Thanks.Nice to see you again. Nice to see you. You were pretty bullish, I think, the last time you were here handful of weeks ago.I think you still are, right. Yeah. Yeah.I mean, I think Yeah, we were talking about this and I was mentioning our bull case which has the S&P at around$7,000 in the middle of next year. And it seems like ...