From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 Will There Be A Recession Soon?2:37 Larry Ellison Tops Elon Musk As World’s Richest Person3:28 Opendoor’s CEO’s Insane Pay PackageEnjoy! https://t.co/lyzy4hX0Kv ...

Labor Market Overview - US unemployment rate rose to 43% in August, the highest since October 2021, with employers adding only 22,000 jobs [4] - Job openings decreased to 718 million in July, falling below the number of unemployed people (roughly 724 million) for the first time since 2021 [5] - China's unemployment rate increased to 52% in July, while youth unemployment spiked to 178% [8][9] - Global job markets are showing signs of weakness, with shrinking openings and shaky labor markets worldwide [10] Economic Analysis and Forecast - The labor market softening confirms previous suspicions, but trends can accelerate quickly, potentially leading to a cliff drop rather than a gradual decline [6] - Markets are interpreting the labor data as a signal for a likely 025% September rate cut, with a 12% chance of a 05% cut [7][8] - Historically, unemployment lags behind financial crises, with equities bottoming out before jobless rates stop climbing [13] - Current conditions resemble early 2001, with slower hiring and softer openings, but stocks are near all-time highs, an unusual sequence [15][16] Factors Influencing Labor Data - Immigration policy changes can significantly impact job growth, with potential job growth dropping to 60,000 per month if migrant flows are curtailed [19] - The gig economy distorts unemployment data, as many independent contractors don't qualify for unemployment benefits [20] - The Labor Department's 2024 rule tightening on employee vs independent contractor classification makes official employment data less reliable [21] Monetary Policy and Market Implications - Weaker labor data increases expectations for rate cuts, which could cushion demand but requires careful balancing to avoid a hard landing or reignited inflation [26] - Rate cuts support risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin, while safe havens like gold benefit from uncertainty and a softer dollar [29][30][32] - The main worry signal is more unemployment than job openings, but this also flashed in 2021 without major consequences [28]

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market is pulling back despite CPI being in line and jobless claims potentially leading to a rate cut [1] - The resumption of the Fed's easing cycle is the number one factor for the following week [1] - Easing, driven by labor market weakness, combined with strong earnings and capex intentions, creates a constructive market setup for the next 6 months [2] - The independence of the Fed is critical for US and global capital markets, and threats to it could impact the long end of the curve [5] - Potential market reaction to threats to Fed independence could raise inflation and bond yields [5] Interest Rates & Economy - The current 10-year Treasury yield range is considered near the bottom at 4% to 48% [6] - Upward pressure on the 10-year yield is possible due to concerns about Fed independence and fiscal spending [6] - Modest easing may not significantly impact housing affordability or credit creation but could manage the pace of economic slowdown [12] - A 25 basis point rate cut is expected, but traders are still considering a 50 basis point cut [13] Sector Analysis - Financials are a potential beneficiary of a bull steepener as the Fed cuts rates [14] - A steeper yield curve will protect net interest margins for financials, coupled with potential financial deregulation [15] - The market's concentration in AI-driven leaders may protect it from disruptions to easing expectations due to inflation risks [8][9] Labor Market - Hiring has almost completely halted, indicating a significant deterioration in the labor market [11] - More weakness in labor, specifically increased layoffs, is needed to confirm a sustained easing cycle [11] - Upside risks to inflation have not abated, despite focus on the Fed's mandate related to the job market [11]

Recent report from Moody's states that 33% of states in the US they are already in recession territory. It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. It makes sense the economic growth happening in these areas because of the tech sector.But the fact that we're not seeing growth in other states, that's less than ideal. So, add in the fact that the S&P 500's price to book value is now higher than it was in the 20 ...

The Bank of America Institute is out with the consumer checkpoint for the month of September and debit and credit card spending actually increased for the third month in a row. Joining us right now to break it all down is Holly O'Neal. She is Bank of America president of consumer consumer banking.And Holly, thanks for coming in today. Thanks very much for having me. Um, so another increase in spending.We keep talking about how the consumers slow slowing down. The job market is slowing down, but the spending ...

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a winning streak following a decline in the August wholesale inflation report, which was unexpected in both headline and core figures [2][4] - Mexico plans to impose a significant increase in tariffs on cars from China, raising the rate from 20% to as much as 50% to protect domestic industry and jobs [2] - Chipotle is expanding its brand into Asia, marking a strategic move for the company [4] Group 2 - Opendoor has appointed Shopify's COO as its new CEO, with co-founders rejoining the company [3] - The IPO of Klarna has seen a strong debut, while StubHub is set to go public next week [4] - Amazon is developing augmented reality glasses to compete with Meta [4]

Economic Outlook - The likelihood of a recession in 2026 is fluctuating, with the Conference Board predicting that higher tariffs will negatively impact GDP growth into the next year [1] - Fidelity and J.P. Morgan have noted a significant decrease in the likelihood of a recession in recent months, with Fidelity stating that current signals do not indicate an imminent recession [1] Financial Planning - Fidelity emphasizes the importance of having a financial plan that accommodates various scenarios for reassurance [1]

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with: The Chart of the Day What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings It's a tough market for job seekers right now. It's an even tougher one for young people. Looking around from the lowest rungs of the career ladder is an unpleasant scene: high unemployment, loss of purchasing power, and the onset of an AI era that is eradicating the idea of an entry-l ...

Group 1 - Investors are increasingly worried about a potential recession, with 43% feeling "bearish" and only 33% "bullish" in the latest survey [1] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a weakening labor market may lead to interest rate cuts, although a recession in 2025 is not guaranteed [2] - Historical data shows that while recessions can last for years, the market has always managed to recover, suggesting a long-term positive outlook for investors [10] Group 2 - During stock market downturns, portfolios typically lose value, but losses are only realized when investments are sold [4][6] - Holding onto investments during market declines can prevent locking in losses, as prices may recover over time [5] - The article emphasizes that even strong stocks can lose value during downturns, but selling them at a loss is the only way to secure those losses [6]