I don't think Trump tariffs were the reason behind the 10th Oct flash crash.It was just pure manipulation to wipe out 99% of the retail.Today, the US-China trade deal has happened, and it's much more bullish than you think.China to suspend all retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4th.China will suspend new rare earth export controls.The US will lower another 10% of tariffs on China.So basically, the markets got more than they wanted, and yet the crypto market is dumping.How the fck does this make any s ...

Core Insights - U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted the German auto industry, leading to declining profits across major brands [1][2] German Auto Industry Exports - The European Union has reduced its tariff burden from 25% to 15%, but this still adversely affects automakers' profits [2] - Volkswagen estimates that U.S. tariffs will cost the company up to 5 billion euros ($5.8 billion) this year, with tariffs reducing its year-over-year profit by 58% [2] Volkswagen Performance - Volkswagen has decreased vehicle shipments to the U.S. to mitigate tariff impacts, resulting in an 11% decline in North American sales through the first three quarters [3] Mercedes-Benz Performance - Mercedes-Benz reported a 70% year-over-year decline in EBIT to 750 million euros ($870 million), with overall revenue falling 7% to 32 billion euros ($37.13 billion) [4] - The company's third-quarter net profit dropped to 1.19 billion euros, down from 1.72 billion euros a year ago ($1.38 billion from $1.99 billion) [5] - Despite the tariff impact, Mercedes-Benz experienced a 10% growth in unit sales in its "top-end" category and maintained its full-year guidance [6][7] Audi Performance - Audi Group described its financial performance as reflective of the challenging economic situation faced by all German automakers [8]

Core Insights - American consumers are expected to spend $40.6 billion more this holiday season due to tariffs imposed by President Trump, with consumers bearing the majority of the costs [2][3] - The average additional cost per shopper is estimated to be $132, leading to potential changes in consumer behavior regarding gift-giving and spending [3][4] Consumer Impact - Consumers will incur an estimated $28.6 billion of the total additional costs from tariffs, while retailers will absorb the remaining $12 billion [3] - Retail analysts predict that higher costs will result in consumers purchasing fewer items this holiday season, which may lead to reduced gift-giving or increased debt [4] Specific Product Categories - Holiday electronics will see the highest additional cost, averaging $186 per shopper, followed by clothing and accessories at $82 per shopper [5][6] - Other categories such as personal care items, beauty products, and toys will incur an extra cost of $14 per shopper, while food and candy will cost an additional $12 per buyer due to tariffs [6]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is approaching 7,000 and currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29, making it the second-most expensive in history according to the Shiller P/E ratio [1][2] General Motors (GM) - General Motors has recently seen a stock price increase following its third-quarter earnings report, benefiting from trends in the auto industry [3][4] - The shift in consumer demand away from electric vehicles (EVs) and the elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit have positively impacted GM [4][5] - The U.S. government's introduction of a 3.75% offset on trucks manufactured in the U.S. provides GM with a competitive advantage over foreign automakers [5] - GM's third-quarter revenue fell slightly by 0.3% to $48.6 billion, exceeding estimates of $45.33 billion, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) fell from $2.96 to $2.80, surpassing the consensus of $2.32 [7] - The estimated gross tariff impact for GM has been lowered to between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, and the full-year adjusted EPS guidance has been raised to a range of $9.75 to $10.50 [8] - GM's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 7, with a history of stock buybacks reducing shares outstanding by 15% over the last year [8][9] Deckers Outdoor (DECK) - Deckers Outdoor, known for brands like Hoka and Ugg, has faced challenges, with its stock down over 50% from its peak earlier this year due to tariff pressures and consumer spending headwinds [10][11] - The stock currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14, based on an EPS forecast of $6.30 to $6.39 [11] - Domestic sales declined by 1.7% in the quarter, and the company faces an estimated $150 million headwind from tariffs [12] - Despite short-term challenges, international sales increased by 29.3% to $591.3 million, accounting for over 40% of revenue [15] - The wholesale revenue improved by 13.4%, and core brands experienced double-digit growth, although Ugg sales are expected to slow [15][16] - Deckers has a strong track record in managing footwear brands and is expected to return to steady bottom-line growth in the long term, making its current price a discount [16]

美国白宫发布《特朗普总统与中国就经济和贸易关系达成协议的情况说明》：中国采取的行动：•中国将暂停在全球范围内实施其于2025年10月9日宣布的关于稀土的大规模新出口管制及相关措施。•中国将向美国终端用户及其全球供应商发放稀土、镓、锗、锑和石墨的通用出口许可证。该通用许可证实际上意味着中国分别于2025年4月和2022年10月实施的管制措施将被取消。•中国将切断芬太尼流入美国。具体而言，中国将停止向北美出口某些特定化学品，并严格控制向世界各地出口某些其他化学品。•中国将暂停自2025年3月4日以来宣布的所有报复性关税。这其中包括对美国大类农产品征收的关税：鸡肉、小麦、玉米、棉花、高粱、大豆、猪肉、牛肉、水产品、水果、蔬菜和乳制品。•中国将暂停或取消自2025年3月4日起对美国采取的所有非关税报复措施，包括将某些美国公司列入其最终用户和不可靠实体清单。•中国将在2025年最后两个月至少购买1200万吨美国大豆，并在2026年、2027年和2028年每年至少购买2500万吨美国大豆。此外，中国还将恢复购买美国高粱和硬木原木。•中国将采取适当措施，确保Nexperia（安世半导体）在中国的工厂恢复贸易，使关键传统芯片 ...

Core Viewpoint - The airline industry, particularly American Airlines, faces challenges but may present investment opportunities as the company shows signs of recovery despite past losses and external pressures [1][2]. Company Performance - American Airlines' stock has decreased by 23.08% year to date as of October 27, indicating a challenging environment for investors [3]. - The airline has recently experienced a stock increase of 18.57% over the past month, suggesting a potential turnaround [6]. Industry Challenges - The airline sector has been negatively impacted by trade tariffs, which have affected international travel and increased operational costs for American Airlines and its peers [4][5]. - The tariffs have specifically targeted countries that are significant sources of travelers to the U.S., contributing to a decline in international business and leisure travel [4]. Management Outlook - American Airlines' management remains optimistic about the company's future, believing it has more growth potential compared to its competitors [7]. - Some industry experts maintain a positive long-term outlook for the airline sector, which could support American Airlines' stock performance [7].

Global Trade & Economy - Global trade is becoming increasingly complex due to strategic decoupling, nearshoring, and tariffs [1] - Supply chains are under pressure, leading to rising inflation [1] - Market fragmentation is occurring [1] - The question of whether the world is truly deglobalizing is being raised [1] Bloomberg New Economy Forum - The Bloomberg New Economy Forum will be held live in Singapore from November 19-21 [1] - The forum will cover the aforementioned topics related to the global economy [1]

Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates for the second time was viewed as the right move, prioritizing inflation control over unemployment concerns [1][2] - The Fed signaled a return to data dependence, avoiding commitment to further rate cuts [2] - Losing credibility around inflation, especially with massive deficits and political pressure, poses a greater risk than a potential slowdown [3] - Disagreements within the Fed, reflected in dissents, highlight the confusion in the economic picture [9][10] - The Fed will stop the roll off of the balance sheet as of December 1st [11] Inflation and Tariffs - Arguments suggesting that inflation is near the 2% target if tariffs are excluded are viewed skeptically, reminiscent of the "transitory inflation" idea [6][7][8] - Cherry-picking components that have risen is not considered a sound method for analyzing inflation [9] US-China Relations - Avoiding a spiral into massive confrontation and economic conflict with China is a positive outcome [16] - The impact of US-China relations on the US economy will not be determined by soybean sales [17] - Technology, particularly competition in artificial intelligence, remains a key issue in US-China relations [17] - Export controls on advanced microchips between the US and China present a difficult set of issues, balancing national defense with technological development [19][20]

Within days of Donald Trump announcing his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs in April, Rick Woldenberg was looking for a law firm to help him sue the U.S. president. ...

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said immediate action to reduce Chinese tariffs on Canadian goods such as canola was never a realistic outcome for his Friday meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping https://t.co/WnpEilUtO6 ...