文 | 汽车像素(ID:autopix)，作者 |张文舟，编辑｜冒诗阳 01.广汽丰田将停产多款主销油车 配合丰田中国的战略目标，南北丰田两合资公司将按照自身的节奏，精简自己的燃油车产品线。 我们独家了解到，广汽丰田至少有两款主力燃油车会在2026年停产，一款是近期月销千余辆的紧凑级轿 车，另一款是月销过万的中型SUV。 合资车企都重视年销量规模，主力燃油车型数量缩减，给业绩带来的阵痛很难避免。广汽丰田今年前10 个月累计销量63.91万辆，停产的两款车贡献了其中近13万辆，约占到总销量的五分之一。 广汽丰田停产的两款车中，其中一款正临近中期改款，新车上市后预计只有一年左右的销售周期。 主销油车"断舍离"，在合资车企中不多见。广汽丰田之所以这么做，原因之一是丰田中国正在调整产品 策略，改变在两合资公司投放"姊妹车型"的做法。 "姊妹车"是合资车企的常见策略，会对一款主销车做小幅的差异化调整，后分别投放在两家合资公司 中。丰田在中国市场已沿用20多年，比如广汽丰田的凯美瑞、威兰达、雷凌，都能在一汽丰田的产品谱 系中找到对应的亚洲龙、RAV4、卡罗拉。 姊妹车的打法适用于快速增长时期的中国汽车市场，可以短时间聚集 ...

Core Insights - Toyota Motor Corporation is expected to benefit from increased sales volume, particularly in the hybrid vehicle segment, despite concerns over rising R&D expenses and capital expenditures [1] Sales and Market Position - The surge in hybrid vehicle adoption is driving Toyota's sales, with the RAV4 model's hybrid variants accounting for about 50% of its sales, making it the top-selling SUV in America [2] - For fiscal 2026, Toyota anticipates selling 9.8 million units, an increase from 9.36 million in fiscal 2025, with total vehicle sales for Toyota and Lexus projected to reach 10.5 million units, a 2.2% increase [3] Hydrogen Strategy - Toyota aims to reduce hydrogen costs by promoting its use in commercial vehicles and plans to sell hydrogen-powered units externally, which is expected to lower production and distribution costs through economies of scale [4] Dividend Growth - In fiscal 2025, Toyota increased its dividend to 90 yen per share from 75 yen in fiscal 2024, with a forecast of 95 yen per share for fiscal 2026, reflecting a 10.04% annualized growth in dividends over the past five years [5] Financial Challenges - Operating income for fiscal 2026 is projected at ¥3.4 trillion, a 29% year-over-year decline, influenced by rising material prices, foreign exchange rates, and tariffs [6] - R&D expenses are expected to rise to ¥1.42 trillion in fiscal 2026, up from ¥1.33 trillion in fiscal 2024, which may limit near-term profit margins [7] - Capital expenditures are projected to increase from ¥2.13 trillion to ¥2.3 trillion, potentially putting pressure on near-term cash flows [8] Debt Levels - Toyota's long-term debt rose to ¥23.63 trillion as of September 30, 2025, from ¥22.96 trillion, with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 38%, compared to the industry average of 29% [8]

Group 1 - Toyota is extending the average full model change cycle for its main models from 7 years to 9 years, focusing on electric vehicle development and software updates to maintain vehicle value [2][4] - The recent update of the SUV "RAV4" marks the first major update in about 7 years, with plans for a new model to be launched in the 2025 fiscal year [4] - The shift to a longer model cycle aims to avoid rapid price declines associated with frequent new model releases, allowing for better resale value of used cars [5] Group 2 - The introduction of software-defined vehicles (SDVs) allows for performance enhancements without the need for new hardware installations, potentially changing the business model for comprehensive updates [4] - Toyota's adjustment in the sales cycle may impact the pricing strategies for dealers, as the wholesale prices will be set flexibly based on model and sales conditions, rather than decreasing over time [5] - The change in model cycles could also affect material suppliers, such as steel manufacturers, as there may be increased trends in using new materials for partial updates [5]

Core Insights - Toyota will extend the sales cycle of its flagship models from an average of 7 years to 9 years, utilizing software updates to maintain product value [1][3] - This shift represents a significant change in the automotive industry's business model, moving away from integrating new features solely in new vehicles [1] - Toyota will still make functional and aesthetic changes to key models while adopting a flexible pricing strategy for wholesale prices based on model and sales conditions [3] Group 1 - The average 9-year sales cycle for Toyota's flagship models is unprecedented, with previous cycles being around 5 years and gradually extending to 7 years [3] - The RAV4 is expected to undergo its first full model change in approximately 7 years, with a release planned for the fiscal year 2025 [3] - Toyota is currently facing a high volume of orders, leading to extended delivery times, which may result in owners having more opportunities to purchase popular models without significant depreciation [3] Group 2 - For models exclusively offered in China, Toyota will maintain development efficiency to adapt to local market conditions [4] - In comparison to other manufacturers, Honda typically changes models every 6-7 years, while Nissan may take nearly 10 years, whereas Tesla updates every 3-5 years and some Chinese manufacturers may do so annually [4]

Core Insights - Toyota has commenced operations at its $13.9 billion battery plant in North Carolina to meet the rising demand for hybrid vehicles and confirmed a plan to invest $10 billion in U.S. manufacturing over the next five years [1][3] - The North Carolina plant is Toyota's 11th facility in the U.S., covering 1,850 acres and capable of producing up to 30 GWh annually, employing 5,000 workers [1][3] - The plant will supply batteries for popular models such as the Camry, Corolla Cross, RAV4, and an undisclosed three-row hybrid SUV [1] Investment Plans - Over the next five years, Toyota plans to invest an additional $10 billion in the U.S., bringing its total investment to over $60 billion [3] - This investment strategy aligns with Toyota's commitment to a multi-faceted energy transition, offering a range of vehicles including fuel-efficient, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicles [3] Market Context - The U.S. government is expected to relax fuel economy standards, which were previously deemed too aggressive, potentially impacting the market dynamics for electric and hybrid vehicles [3] - Other automakers, such as Volkswagen, are also responding to the changes in U.S. policy by increasing the availability of hybrid models in the market [4]

Group 1 - Toyota announced a large-scale recall in the U.S. involving 1.02 million vehicles due to a software defect in the rearview camera that may freeze or go black while reversing, increasing collision risk [2] - The recall affects various popular models from Toyota and Lexus, including Camry, Highlander, RAV4, Prius, and several Lexus models, as well as the Subaru Solterra due to a shared monitoring system [2] - This is not the first recall for Toyota related to rearview camera issues, as a previous recall last month involved nearly 394,000 vehicles [2] Group 2 - For the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Toyota reported a sales revenue of 12.38 trillion yen (approximately 573.92 billion yuan), an 8.2% year-on-year increase [3] - Operating profit was 839.55 billion yen (approximately 38.92 billion yuan), a significant decline of 27% year-on-year, while net profit reached 932.08 billion yen (approximately 43.21 billion yuan), a 62% increase year-on-year [3] - North America showed a 15% increase in sales, while Asia and Japan experienced declines; Toyota remains optimistic about the overall performance for fiscal year 2026 and has raised its annual forecasts for global vehicle sales, operating profit, net profit, and sales revenue [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the heavy burden of U.S. auto tariffs, Toyota's balanced development and sales strategy in major regions like China and Europe has proven effective. However, risks remain in semiconductor and rare earth procurement [1][12]. Financial Forecast - For the fiscal year ending March 2026, Toyota forecasts a consolidated net profit of 2.93 trillion yen, a 39% year-on-year decline, which is an upward revision from the previous estimate of 2.66 trillion yen (44% decline) [1]. - Sales are expected to grow by 2% to 49 trillion yen, while operating profit is projected to decrease by 29% to 3.4 trillion yen, with upward adjustments of 500 billion yen and 200 billion yen respectively [3]. Regional Performance - Toyota's sales strategy has led to a balanced revenue structure across regions, with North America accounting for only 28% of total sales, lower than competitors like General Motors (56%) and Honda (47%) [8]. - In North America, local production increases have supported the launch of models like the Tundra and Tacoma, tailored to local demand [8]. - Sales in India increased by 14% to 160,000 units, while sales in Indonesia decreased by 18% to 120,000 units, with other regions providing effective support [8]. Production and Efficiency - The introduction of the Toyota New Global Architecture (TNGA) has improved production efficiency, reducing equipment investment and development time by 25% and vehicle costs by 10% compared to pre-TNGA levels [11]. - For the first half of the fiscal year, Toyota reported a 6% increase in sales to 24.63 trillion yen, with a 7% decline in net profit to 1.77 trillion yen, and a global sales increase of 5% to 5.26 million units, marking a historical high [11]. Supply Chain Risks - The automotive supply chain faces increased disruption risks amid U.S.-China tensions, particularly concerning semiconductor shortages, which are critical for production [12]. - The CFO expressed awareness of potential risks from U.S. economic policies, despite currently not seeing direct impacts [13]. Investment and Future Strategy - Toyota plans to continue significant investments in the U.S., with a recent announcement of an additional $88 million investment in a West Virginia plant, indicating a commitment to local production [14]. - The company is also focusing on software-defined vehicles (SDVs) and must prioritize advancements in autonomous driving technology to remain competitive [14].

FY2026 Second Quarter Financial Results November 5, 2025 Toyota Motor Corporation CENTURY Cautionary Statement with Respect to Forward-Looking Statements and Caution Concerning Insider Trading This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the plans and expectations of Toyota Motor Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries ("Toyota"). These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operating income for the first half of the fiscal year was 2 trillion yen, with a full-year forecast of 3.4 trillion yen despite U.S. tariffs [3][4] - Consolidated sales revenues reached 24 trillion yen, with net income of 1.7734 trillion yen [6][10] - The ratio of electrified vehicles rose to 46.9%, driven mainly by strong HEV sales in North America and China [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated vehicle sales for the first half reached 4.783 million units, representing a 5% increase year-on-year [5] - Toyota and Lexus vehicle sales totaled 5.267 million units, a 4.7% increase compared to the previous fiscal year [5] - Operating income in the Financial Services segment increased due to higher loan balances [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating income in Japan decreased due to exchange rate fluctuations and increased expenses [6][7] - North America saw a decrease in operating income primarily due to U.S. tariffs, while other regions experienced increases due to higher sales volumes [6][7] - The China business reported an increase in operating income and share of profit from investments [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to enhance product competitiveness and improve productivity while managing costs and expanding value chain profits [4][11] - A new brand strategy was introduced, including the launch of the Century brand, to better meet customer needs [12][55] - The company is focused on maintaining a diverse range of products to cater to individual customer preferences [4][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs but emphasized strong global demand for products [23][26] - The company is committed to improving breakeven volumes and enhancing operational foundations to strengthen earnings power [15][16] - Future investments will focus on local production and procurement to mitigate tariff impacts and enhance competitiveness [98][100] Other Important Information - The interim dividend was raised to 45 yen per share, with a full-year forecast of 95 yen per share [4][8] - The company plans to continue flexible share repurchases while considering stock prices [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: How has the company raised its earning power and how is it reflected in Q2 results? - Management highlighted strong global demand and product quality as key factors contributing to earning power, with operating income of 2 trillion yen for Q2 [23][25] Question: What countermeasures are being taken against semiconductor shortfalls? - Management stated that there has been no significant impact so far but is closely monitoring the situation and exploring alternatives [31][32] Question: What is the outlook for the North American market? - Management expects strong demand to continue, with no changes to vehicle sales forecasts despite tariff impacts [34][36] Question: What are the plans for maintaining production capacity in Japan? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining 3 million units of domestic production and balancing local and overseas production [97][98] Question: How does the company view the impact of tariffs on regional sales operations? - Management noted that a diversified revenue structure mitigates the impact of tariffs, allowing for balanced operations across regions [92][93]

Core Insights - Japanese automakers are at a crossroads, facing the choice between continuing to focus on the North American market or expanding collaboration with China [23] Group 1: Event Overview - The 2025 Japan Mobility Show had a minimal presence in the passenger car sector, featuring only 10 domestic brands and 5 international brands, contrasting sharply with other major auto shows [3] - The event was overshadowed by international political dynamics, including a meeting between US President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Kishi, where Japan announced a $550 billion investment mechanism with potential projects [5] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Japanese automakers are lagging in the global electrification race, having missed early opportunities in lithium-ion battery development and facing delays in solid-state battery production [9] - The market share of Japanese automakers in China has plummeted from 24.1% in 2020 to an estimated 11.2% in 2024, with Q1 2023 figures showing only 10.8% [14] - The US market, a key export destination for Japanese automakers, has been adversely affected by Trump's tariff policies, with estimated losses exceeding $19 billion due to a 25% tariff [15] Group 3: Future Directions - Japanese automakers are showcasing "visions" for the future, including concept vehicles and advanced technologies, as a way to signal ongoing development despite current challenges [9][15] - The entry of Chinese automaker BYD into the Japanese K-Car market is seen as a significant threat, with local companies like Suzuki acknowledging the competitive pressure [18][20] - Collaborations between Japanese automakers and Chinese tech firms are emerging, with Nissan and Toyota partnering with companies like Momenta and Huawei to enhance their technological capabilities [22]