Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Wall Street anticipates a 25 basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a 96% probability assigned to this outcome [2] - The Fed's "dot-plot" will be closely monitored for insights on future rate cuts throughout 2025 [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks during the press conference following the decision will be significant for market sentiment [3] Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's influence and recent nominations [4] - Stephen Miran was confirmed to the Federal Reserve Board, indicating a potential shift in policy direction, while he plans to take a leave of absence from his White House advisor role [5] - Fed governor Lisa Cook remains on the board despite legal challenges, ensuring continuity in policy discussions [6] Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Asian markets showed mixed reactions following tariff reductions on Japanese goods and expectations surrounding the Fed's rate cut [9] - Investors are also awaiting new data on housing starts and earnings reports from General Mills and Cracker Barrel [6] Gold Market Outlook - Deutsche Bank maintains a bullish outlook on gold, projecting a price target of $4,000 per ounce by 2026, citing favorable market conditions despite a significant price increase this year [7]

Corporate Developments - General Mills (GIS) reported quarterly sales that exceeded estimates, but shares declined due to warnings about a challenging consumer environment [6] - Cracker Barrel (CBRL) is under scrutiny following controversy over its now-abandoned logo change, with results being closely watched [6] - Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell by 1.5% in premarket trading after reports that China has instructed major tech companies, including Alibaba, not to purchase its AI chips, effectively banning tens of thousands of orders [5] Economic Indicators - The interest rate on a 30-year mortgage has dropped to its lowest level since October 2024, leading to a nearly 60% increase in refinancing applications, the highest since March 2022 [5]

US stocks diverged on Wednesday in the countdown to the end of Federal Reserve's policy meeting, overwhelmingly expected to usher in the first US interest rate cut of 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) moved up nearly 0.7%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) nudged down 0.1%, Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell over 0.5%. The major US gauges ended Tuesday little changed to stay within reach of record highs. Investors are keeping their powder dry in anticipation that the Fed will st ...

Market Overview - Australian shares are expected to open with a dip of -0.43% as global markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut [1] - The Federal Reserve is meeting to discuss a potential cut of U.S. interest rates by 0.25 percentage points due to a slowdown in the American jobs market and rising unemployment [2] - Major Wall Street indexes have retracted between -0.1% and -0.3%, while London markets fell by as much as -0.8% [3] Company News - BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has announced the layoff of 750 jobs in its Queensland division due to weak coal prices and plans to mothball its Saraji South mine in November [4] - Paladin Energy (ASX:PDN) has returned to trading after raising $300 million, which will be allocated to its flagship project, Langer Heinrich, in Namibia [4] - Norwest Minerals (ASX:NWM) has confirmed significant gold mineralization extensions at Bulgera through first-phase RC drilling, attracting attention from investors [5] - PYC Therapeutics (ASX:PYC) has appointed Alan Tribe as its new managing director [5] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.8 U.S. cents [6] - Iron Ore prices have increased by +0.7%, currently at $106.30 per tonne in Singapore [6] - Brent Crude is priced at $68.51 per barrel, while Gold is up to $3,694 [6] - U.S. natural gas futures have risen by +2.6%, reaching $3.12 per gigajoule [6]

Tuesday, September 16, 2025Market indexes closed in the red across the board this day, just ahead of a sure rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq struck new intra-day highs early in the session before breaking lower. The Nasdaq looked as if it may eke out a green close, but dipped just ahead of the bell.The Dow gave back -125 points today, -0.27%, while the S&P 500 was -8 points lower, -0.13%. The Nasdaq was virtually flat: -14 points, -0.07% — snapping a six-day win ...

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22, 2025 in Wyoming.David A. Grogan | CNBCThe Federal Reserve meets this week with some big items on the agenda: An important rate decision and forecast of what's ahead, combined with a healthy dose of political intrigue uncommon for central bank policymakers.On the monetary side, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday will release its ruling on where it will set the overnight borrowing rate. Along with that, officials will sketch ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market closed on September 16, 2025, with major indexes near all-time highs, driven by strong retail sales data and anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [1][3] - The S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite finished up less than 0.1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped between 0.2% and 0.3% [2] Economic Data - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%, with July's figures revised to a 0.6% growth [5] - Upcoming economic releases include Housing Starts and Building Permits, which will provide insights into the housing market's health [6] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to conclude with a widely anticipated 25-basis-point reduction in the federal funds rate, aimed at boosting economic activity [4] Corporate Developments - Alphabet (GOOGL) shares rose, reaching a market capitalization above $3 trillion, following Citigroup's price target increase to $280 from $225 [7] - Tesla (TSLA) shares increased over 3% after Elon Musk's $1 billion stock purchase [7] - Emerson Electric (EMR) shares fell nearly 5% due to disappointing fiscal fourth-quarter orders guidance [8] - Webtoon Entertainment's shares soared 28% after a deal with Disney for a new digital comics platform [9] Upcoming Earnings Reports - General Mills (GIS) is set to report earnings, with other notable companies like FedEx (FDX), Micron Technology (MU), Accenture (ACN), Costco Wholesale (COST), and Nike (NKE) scheduled for later in September [12]

Group 1 - The dollar index fell by -0.69%, reaching a 2.5-month low, primarily due to expectations of a -25 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed [1] - US retail sales in August rose by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.2%, while retail sales excluding autos increased by +0.7% month-over-month, stronger than the anticipated +0.4% [3] - The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an overall expectation of a -68 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate by year-end [5] Group 2 - Concerns over Fed independence are affecting the dollar, as President Trump attempts to fire Fed Governor Cook, which may lead foreign investors to sell dollar assets [2] - The euro rose by +0.88%, reaching a 4-year high, supported by dollar weakness and central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle [6] - The US manufacturing production unexpectedly increased by +0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a -0.2% decline [3]

Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce a rate cut of at least 25 basis points during the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting, marking the first cut since December 2024 [1][2] - There is a 96.1% probability of a 25-basis-point cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool, with a 3.9% chance of a 50-basis-point cut, which would be the largest since September 2024 [2] Economic Indicators - Current economic indicators show inflation, unemployment, and consumer spending are raising concerns, prompting the Fed's decision to consider rate cuts [3] - August retail sales increased by 0.6%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.3%, indicating healthy consumer spending [5][6] Market Reactions - Stock market indexes have reached all-time highs, raising questions about whether a 25-basis-point cut will suffice to maintain market momentum or if a larger cut is necessary [7][9] - Experts suggest that the market may experience volatility following the Fed's announcement, with potential sell-offs leading to a rally later in the year [7][8] Future Projections - Attention will be on the Dot Plot during the meeting, which will provide insights into Fed members' projections for growth, inflation, unemployment, and future rate cuts [4][8] - The upcoming FOMC meetings in October and December will be critical for determining additional rate moves or the first cut of 2025 [3]

All right, welcome back to Power Lunch. Let's talk about tomorrow's big Federal Reserve meeting and maybe one group of stocks that could benefit. It is the subject of today's market navigator.That is Dom Chu. What is on the market navigator. All right, so as we talk about tomorrow, the Fed is all but certain to cut interest rates by at least one quarter of 1%.But our next guest says that bank stocks are going to stand to benefit from a rate cut and says that in fact the sector has been overlooked and could ...