GS US TMT ... 10 只股票 + 图表 ... GS US TMT：... 10 只股票 + 图表 ... GS US TMT: All references to "we/us/our" refer to the views and observations of the desk. GS US TMT ：所有提及 " 我们 / 我们的 " 均指本部门的观点和观察。 GS US TMT ... 10 stocks + charts ... Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 GS US TMT: ... 10 stocks + charts ... Happy Friday; with the NDX now up +3.5% on the year (.. tho, candidly, at times it feels like we are up +35% on the year given the vibes out there..), quick rundown of some charts and stocks th ...

Core Insights - Warren Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of this year, marking the end of an era for the investment conglomerate he has led since 1965 [1] - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its exposure to technology trends and growth stocks, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Strategy - Berkshire Hathaway has been reducing its stock holdings and increasing its cash position, reflecting concerns about market valuations relative to macroeconomic and geopolitical risks [5] - The company has significantly reduced its holdings in Apple, which may indicate specific concerns regarding the business despite Apple remaining the largest stock holding in Berkshire's portfolio [9] Group 2: Apple Inc. - Apple has a market capitalization of $3 trillion and constitutes 21.6% of Berkshire's total stock portfolio, making it the largest publicly traded company in the portfolio [4] - Apple faces challenges in the AI space, particularly with its Siri platform, which has not met performance expectations [6] - The company is also experiencing difficulties in the Chinese market, with delays in the rollout of its AI platform and soft sales for the iPhone 16 [7][8] Group 3: Amazon.com Inc. - Amazon represents a smaller percentage of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, with its investment being made by one of the portfolio's managers rather than Buffett himself [10] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a key growth driver for the company, holding a 30% market share in cloud services and expected to be a multi-hundred-billion dollar revenue business [11][12] - AWS sales increased by 17% year over year in the first quarter, contributing significantly to Amazon's operating income [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative impact of artificial intelligence (AI) across industries, projecting a contribution of nearly $20 trillion to the global economy over the next five years, with significant investment opportunities in companies like Nvidia and Meta Platforms over the next two decades [1]. Group 1: Nvidia - Nvidia holds a dominant position in the graphics processing unit (GPU) market, essential for AI workloads, indicating substantial growth potential despite recent stock price increases [2]. - CEO Jensen Huang predicts a global increase in AI infrastructure, with Nvidia's products expected to enhance AI computing capabilities significantly over the next decade [3]. - Nvidia's recent quarterly report shows a 69% year-over-year revenue growth, with nearly 100 AI factories under development, doubling the number from the previous year [4][5]. - The company is well-positioned with its comprehensive solutions, and its networking revenue surged by 64% in the last quarter, reflecting high demand for data processing and AI workloads [5]. - Nvidia's trailing 12-month revenue exceeds $148 billion, with a growth rate of over 50% year-over-year, suggesting a vast long-term opportunity [6][7]. - The company is crucial in fulfilling the demand for AI, and its competitive advantages are expected to sustain long-term growth [8]. Group 2: Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms is positioned as a potential long-term beneficiary of AI, as advancements may lead to increased user engagement on social media platforms [9]. - The company plans to invest at least $64 billion in capital expenditures by 2025, primarily for data centers, indicating confidence in future returns from AI investments [10]. - Meta's revenue grew by 22% in 2024, with a continued momentum of 16% year-over-year growth in Q1 2025, driven by AI-enhanced ad targeting [11]. - The launch of AI-powered devices, such as Meta AI glasses, is expected to tap into a significant market, with sales of Ray-Ban AI glasses tripling over the past year [12]. - With over 3.4 billion daily users across its apps, Meta has a substantial audience to leverage AI technology for business growth, and its current valuation suggests potential for healthy stock price gains [13].

Core Viewpoint - Micron Technology's stock has surged 37% recently, driven by a recovery in technology stocks and the anticipated positive impact of AI on its upcoming fiscal Q3 results [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance and Guidance - Micron's fiscal Q3 guidance projects revenue of $8.8 billion, a significant increase from $6.8 billion in the same period last year [4] - Adjusted earnings are expected to rise by over 2.5 times year-over-year, with potential for exceeding guidance due to high demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI GPUs [4][9] Group 2: Demand for High-Bandwidth Memory - Micron's HBM is being utilized in Nvidia's latest GB200 and GB300 Blackwell systems, which have shown strong performance, with Nvidia's data center revenue increasing 73% year-over-year to $39 billion [5][6] - The transition to Blackwell GPUs, which feature larger HBM chips, is expected to drive further demand for Micron's products [6][7] Group 3: Pricing and Market Dynamics - Micron plans to increase HBM chip prices by 11% this year, reflecting strong demand and limited supply, with the company already sold out of its HBM capacity for 2025 [8] - The integration of HBM into more AI accelerators by other chipmakers like Broadcom and Marvell Technology is likely to expand Micron's market opportunities [9][10] Group 4: Investment Considerations - Despite the recent stock rally, Micron is trading at 23 times earnings, with a forward earnings multiple of 9, indicating strong growth potential [11] - Consensus estimates predict a 437% increase in earnings this year, followed by a 57% increase next fiscal year, with a median 12-month price target of $130 suggesting a 27% upside [12]

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its significant growth potential, solid financial health, and attractive valuation, especially as its stock is currently trading down nearly 20% from its recent high [1] Group 1: Growth Opportunities - Energy Transfer has established one of the largest integrated midstream systems in the U.S., which allows it to capitalize on rising volumes and price spreads across the energy value chain [2] - The company is focusing on growth, planning to spend approximately $5 billion in capital expenditures this year, up from $3 billion in 2024, with major projects like the Hugh Brinson pipeline aimed at meeting increasing natural gas demand [5] - Energy Transfer is also ready to make a final investment decision on its Lake Charles LNG facility, having signed a deal to fund 30% of the construction costs [6] Group 2: Financial Position - The company has improved its financial standing significantly, with its distribution now above pre-2020 levels and a leverage ratio at the low end of its target range of 4 to 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA [8] - Approximately 90% of Energy Transfer's EBITDA is expected to come from fee-based services this year, providing insulation from commodity price fluctuations [9] - The current quarterly distribution is $0.3275 per share, yielding 7.3%, with management targeting annual growth of 3% to 5% in distributions [10] Group 3: Valuation - Energy Transfer is trading at a forward enterprise-value-to-EBITDA multiple of just 8, significantly lower than the historical average of 13.7 for midstream MLPs between 2011 and 2016 [11]

Global Energy Investment Overview - Global energy investment is projected to reach USD 3.3 trillion in 2025, a 2% increase from 2024, with clean energy investments totaling USD 2.2 trillion, accounting for two-thirds of total investments, while fossil fuel investments are expected to be USD 1.1 trillion [1][21][58] - The uncertainty in economic and trade outlooks has led some investors to adopt a cautious approach towards new project approvals, although spending on existing projects remains unaffected [21][22] Power Sector Investment - The electricity sector is set to receive USD 1.5 trillion in investments by 2025, which is 50% higher than investments in fossil fuel supply [2][24] - Solar photovoltaic (PV) investments are expected to reach USD 450 billion, making it the largest single investment area, with significant contributions from Chinese exports to developing economies [2][25][27] - Battery storage investments are projected to grow to USD 66 billion, while grid investments are lagging behind, with annual spending at USD 400 billion [2][30] Fossil Fuel Supply Dynamics - Investments in fossil fuels are experiencing their first decline since 2020, with upstream oil investments decreasing by 4% and natural gas investments remaining stable [3][31] - Coal investments are expected to grow by 4%, primarily driven by demand in China and India, while low-carbon fuel investments are projected to reach USD 30 billion [3][35][36] Demand Side and Electrification - Investments in electrification and energy efficiency are expected to reach USD 800 billion by 2025, nearly doubling over the past decade, with electric vehicle sales significantly contributing to this growth [4][37] - The building sector is seeing a slowdown in energy efficiency investments due to policy changes, but demand for efficient appliances is rising [4][37] Regional Investment Trends - China leads global energy investments, accounting for nearly one-third of clean energy investments, while the U.S. and Europe focus on grid, storage, and hydrogen energy [5][41] - Developing economies, particularly in Africa, face significant investment imbalances, with Africa only accounting for 2% of global clean energy investments despite having 20% of the world population [5][42] Financing and Innovation - Commercial financing dominates energy investments, making up 75% of the total, while developing economies rely heavily on international public funding [6][44] - Clean energy R&D spending continues to grow, but venture capital investment in energy has declined, with a shift towards AI-related projects [6][49] Summary of Challenges and Path Forward - The report highlights the need for increased investments in renewable energy, grids, and storage to meet net-zero targets, while addressing bottlenecks in policy frameworks and financing [7][50][52]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is experiencing significant challenges, including a 20% decline in stock price this year, the worst performance since at least 2010, with limited catalysts for recovery in the near term due to the absence of a major iPhone upgrade cycle [1][8]. Group 1: AI and Product Development - At the upcoming WWDC, Apple's lag in artificial intelligence (AI) compared to competitors like Microsoft and Google is expected to be a major topic, highlighting the slow progress in AI and the overdue upgrade of Siri [3][6]. - Analysts note that Apple is likely to be more cautious in its presentations, avoiding overpromising on features that are not yet ready [4]. - The company is not currently monetizing its generative AI features, which could limit short-term growth as it seeks to boost hardware sales, particularly for iPhones, which have seen flat revenue for two years [6][7]. Group 2: External Pressures - Apple faces additional pressures, including tariffs that threaten hardware profit margins and scrutiny over its services division, particularly regarding App Store fees and payments from Google for being its default search engine [5][6]. - The competition is intensifying from unexpected sources, such as OpenAI's collaboration with former Apple designer Jony Ive to create new AI devices that could disrupt the smartphone market [7][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that for Apple's stock to perform well, a catalyst such as an iPhone replacement cycle is necessary, which is not anticipated in the next 12 months [6][7]. - Despite having a loyal user base of 2.35 billion active devices, Apple’s dominance is challenged by external risks, including tariffs and legal battles, alongside its internal struggles with AI development [8].

Core Insights - Applied Digital (APLD) is implementing an ambitious expansion strategy focused on hyperscale infrastructure, supported by significant investments from Macquarie Asset Management and SMBC totaling up to $5.375 billion [1][7] - The Ellendale campus is central to APLD's data center vision, with the first building expected to provide 100 megawatts of IT load by the end of 2025, and plans for additional buildings to increase capacity to over 400 megawatts [2][7] - APLD aims to become a leader in high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure and is exploring strategic alternatives for its Cloud Services business, potentially transitioning to a REIT structure [3][7] Competition Update - CoreWeave (CRWV) has raised over $1 billion to expand its GPU-powered data center capacity, positioning itself as a significant competitor in the AI-focused cloud market [4] - Equinix (EQIX) announced a joint venture to raise over $15 billion for expanding its xScale data centers in the U.S., adding more than 1.5 gigawatts of capacity to meet AI and cloud demands [5] Financial Performance - APLD's shares have increased by 67.1% year-to-date, contrasting with a 5% decline in the industry [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.85, which is above the industry average and its five-year median of 1.42 [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected 73.6% rise in APLD's fiscal 2026 earnings year-over-year [9]

Group 1 - The company is exploring ways to expand its customer base by making its products available in gyms and launching a peer-to-peer marketplace for used equipment [1][2] - Peloton plans to distribute its machines to commercial gyms through its subsidiary Precor and is working to integrate Peloton workouts with compatible Precor equipment [1] - The newly launched peer-to-peer marketplace, Repowered, aims to provide a more streamlined and premium experience for second-hand customers compared to traditional platforms like Facebook Marketplace [2] Group 2 - The company aims to leverage AI to enhance personalization for its members by creating individualized programs that match them with the right classes and instructors [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Braze reported Q1 2026 revenue of $162.1 million, representing a nearly 20% year-over-year increase [6][18] - Non-GAAP operating margin improved by over 900 basis points year-over-year, with non-GAAP net income of $7 million and free cash flow of nearly $23 million [6][24] - Total remaining performance obligation (RPO) was $829.3 million, up 26% year-over-year, while current RPO increased by 24% year-over-year to $522 million [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription revenue accounted for 96% of total revenue, with the remaining 4% from professional services and onboarding fees [18] - The customer count rose to 2,342, an increase of 11% year-over-year, with large customers (spending at least $500,000 annually) growing by 24% year-over-year to 262 [18][19] - Dollar-based net retention (DBNR) was 109 overall and 112 for large customers, indicating strong customer expansion [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue outside the U.S. contributed 46% of total revenue, up from 45% in the previous quarter [20] - The company secured new business wins across various sectors, including fintech, luxury retail, and healthcare, demonstrating broad market strength [7][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Braze aims to become the leading customer engagement platform globally, focusing on AI-driven solutions and first-party data utilization [6][10] - The acquisition of OfferFit is expected to enhance Braze's AI capabilities and customer engagement strategies, allowing for more personalized experiences [12][14] - The company is committed to investing in technology and community to elevate customer engagement practices [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that global trade concerns have not significantly impacted deal cycles, and they expect continued momentum despite a noisy macro environment [6][7] - The company anticipates that the legacy replacement cycle and vendor consolidation trends will persist, providing opportunities for market share growth [9][10] - Management expressed confidence in achieving sustained profitable growth while navigating economic uncertainties [6][27] Other Important Information - Braze's non-GAAP gross profit for the quarter was $112 million, with a gross margin of 69.3%, up from 67.9% in the prior year [21] - The company ended the quarter with approximately $540 million in cash and equivalents, indicating strong liquidity [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Reconciling sequential growth and CRPO dynamics - Management acknowledged that CRPO is sensitive to renewal dollars and emphasized that revenue is the key metric to watch for macro stabilization [32][34] Question: Performance of Project Catalyst - Project Catalyst is in private beta, and while specific uplift case studies are not available, initial results show promise in optimizing customer engagement strategies [43][45] Question: Renewal cadence and OfferFit feedback - Q1 was a heavy renewal quarter, with expectations for a drop in Q2 and Q3, followed by another increase in Q4 [63] - Early feedback on OfferFit has been positive, with strong interest from customers and successful presentations at events [55][57] Question: Pricing and packaging changes - The new pricing model has relaxed data point limits, improving customer flexibility and reducing friction in sales cycles [70][72] Question: Impact of OfferFit on EBIT guidance - OfferFit is expected to contribute significantly to EBIT, with around 80% of the impact attributed to its integration [74][76]