Hello and welcome to CNBC. com. I'm Frank Holland, anchor of Worldwide Exchange.We are talking the ETF market that now is seeing net inflows of 1.35% trillion dollars year to date according to the latest data from Vetify. And today I'm joined by Tom Stout, Arc Investment Management President and COO. Tom, thanks for joining us.>> Great to see you, Frank. >> All right. uh in the last couple days, last couple weeks, we've seen like a lot of dislocation in the market, specifically when it comes to tech, but ob ...

Group 1 - Range Resources Corporation (NYSE:RRC) experienced a share price decline of 6.52% from December 3 to December 10, 2025, ranking among the energy stocks that lost the most during that week [1] - On December 8, JPMorgan downgraded Range Resources from 'Neutral' to 'Underweight' and reduced its price target from $44 to $39, following an update to its exploration and production ratings for 2026 [2] - The analyst noted that while there are supply side risks for oil and liquids, a demand inflection for natural gas has finally arrived, with natural gas prices near a three-year high [3] Group 2 - JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram indicated that Range Resources has lost its competitive edge due to expected decreases in Belvieu pricing next year, attributed to expanding dock capacity on the Gulf Coast [4] - The forecast for Range Resources' free cash flow yield for 2026-27 is expected to be below that of its peers in the broader exploration and production and gas sectors [4]

Group 1 - GeoPark Limited (NYSE:GPRK) experienced an 11.7% decline in share price from December 3 to December 10, 2025, making it one of the worst-performing energy stocks during that week [1] - Acquisition discussions between GeoPark and Parex Resources have ceased, ending over a month of negotiations [2] - Parex Resources declined to increase its initial cash offer of $9 per share, which GeoPark believes undervalues its assets [3] Group 2 - On December 1, 2025, GeoPark announced its 2026 Work Program, aiming to triple capital expenditures (CapEx), double adjusted EBITDA, and increase production by over 60% by 2028 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Rexford Industrial has experienced a significant stock price decline, losing half its value, which has resulted in an attractive dividend yield of 4.2% [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to investor sentiment rather than fundamental business issues, as the company continues to grow albeit at a slower pace [2][5] Business Performance - The pandemic-driven shift to online shopping increased demand for warehouse space, benefiting Rexford's industrial assets [4] - Rexford focuses exclusively on industrial properties in Southern California, a strategic location for goods coming from Asia, which has historically supported strong performance [4][7] - Despite the stock price drop, Rexford's business fundamentals remain strong, with new leases signed at rates 25.6% higher than expiring leases and renewal rates up 26.5% [6][8] Market Dynamics - Southern California's industrial real estate market has lower vacancy rates and high barriers to entry, making it a favorable environment for Rexford [7] - The company has slightly increased its full-year adjusted funds from operations (FFO) outlook, indicating ongoing business strength [7] Investment Perspective - The current dividend yield of 4.3% is backed by over a decade of dividend growth, presenting a compelling investment opportunity [8] - The company is viewed as misunderstood by Wall Street, with a strong foundation for continued success in a desirable property market [9][10] - The significant price decline may present a contrarian investment opportunity for long-term holders, despite current market trends favoring other sectors like artificial intelligence [11]

Core Insights - Activist investor Bill Ackman is focusing on two AI-driven companies, Uber Technologies and Amazon, as key investment opportunities for 2026 [1][5]. Uber Technologies - Uber is Ackman's largest holding, with 30,270,518 shares purchased, reflecting a strong belief in its management and valuation [6][9]. - Uber has maintained a significant market share in the U.S. ride-sharing market, ranging from 68% to 76% from September 2017 to March 2024, with a peak of 76% in March 2024 [7][10]. - The global ride-sharing market is projected to grow to approximately $918 billion from 2025 to 2033, indicating substantial growth potential for Uber [10]. - AI plays a crucial role in Uber's operations, enhancing rider-driver matching, route tracking, demand forecasting, and personalizing user experiences [11]. - Uber's diversification into Uber Eats and freight logistics positions it favorably within the U.S. economy, which tends to expand more than contract [12]. Amazon - Ackman acquired 5,823,316 shares of Amazon, valued at nearly $1.3 billion, indicating a strong interest in the e-commerce giant [15]. - Amazon is projected to capture over 40% of the U.S. online retail market by 2025, significantly outpacing competitors like Walmart [16]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a critical component of Amazon's future, integrating AI to enhance its offerings and expected to sustain a 20% year-over-year sales growth rate [18]. - AWS contributed 18.5% to Amazon's net sales but accounted for 60.3% of its operating income, highlighting its profitability [20]. - Amazon's advertising and subscription services also provide significant revenue streams, leveraging its vast user base and content offerings [21]. - Ackman noted that Amazon's stock was historically undervalued, trading at about 10 times forecast cash flow in 2026, compared to a median of 30 times in the past decade [22].

While the artificial intelligence (AI) chipmaker has had an incredible run, another household name could leapfrog into first place.There's no denying the impact artificial intelligence (AI) has had on the technology landscape over the past several years. Many of the world's most valuable companies by market cap have unmistakable ties to AI and have profited handsomely from the advent of this technology.Chief among those has been Nvidia (NVDA 1.55%). The company's graphics processing units (GPUs) were origin ...

Flash | Google researchers have developed a new framework for understanding and improving LLMs called Nested Learning. With this approach, which applies certain principles of human learning to model architecture and optimization, Google designed Hope, a new variant of the Titans model. In reasoning, language modeling, and memory management experiments, Hope outperformed other cutting edge models, suggesting this approach can help to develop LLMs with continual learning abilities, more like the human brain. ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated revenue for fiscal year 2025 grew 24% year on year to a record $64 billion, driven by AI semiconductors and VMware [5] - Q4 total revenue was a record $18 billion, up 28% year on year, exceeding guidance due to better-than-expected growth in AI semiconductors and infrastructure software [6] - Q4 consolidated adjusted EBITDA reached a record $12.12 billion, up 34% year on year [6][12] - Gross margin for Q4 was 77.9% of revenue, better than guidance due to higher software revenues and product mix [12] - Free cash flow in Q4 was $7.5 billion, representing 41% of revenue [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Semiconductor revenue for Q4 was $11.1 billion, with year-on-year growth accelerating to 35%, driven by AI semiconductor revenue of $6.5 billion, which was up 74% year on year [6][14] - Infrastructure software revenue for Q4 was $6.9 billion, up 19% year on year, with total contract value booked exceeding $10.4 billion [10][14] - Non-AI semiconductor revenue for Q4 was $4.6 billion, up 2% year on year, with a forecast of approximately $4.1 billion for Q1, flat from a year ago [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - AI networking demand is strong, with a current order backlog for AI switches exceeding $10 billion [8] - Total order backlog for AI components is over $73 billion, expected to be delivered over the next 18 months [9] - Infrastructure software backlog increased to $73 billion, up from $49 billion a year ago [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company expects AI revenue to continue to accelerate and drive most of its growth, while non-AI semiconductor revenue is anticipated to remain stable [11] - Infrastructure software revenue is expected to grow at a low double-digit percentage, driven by VMware growth [11] - The company is focusing on advanced packaging capabilities in Singapore to address supply chain challenges [34][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that spending momentum for AI is expected to continue accelerating into 2026 [5] - There is a recognition of the challenges in the non-AI semiconductor market, with limited signs of recovery in enterprise spending [10][80] - Management expressed confidence in the ability to meet demand despite potential supply chain bottlenecks [74] Other Important Information - The company announced a 10% increase in its quarterly common stock cash dividend to $0.65 per share, marking the 15th consecutive increase since initiating dividends in fiscal 2011 [17] - The company has extended its share repurchase program, with $7.5 billion remaining through the end of calendar year 2026 [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on AI backlog and customer-owned tooling - Management confirmed the $73 billion backlog for AI components and emphasized that bookings are expected to continue growing [22][23] - Management downplayed the notion of customers moving towards complete self-sufficiency in tooling, suggesting that custom AI accelerators will still be necessary [25] Question: Impact of TPU sales on market dynamics - Management indicated that TPU sales are primarily a substitution for GPUs and that moving to custom accelerators is a long-term strategic decision [28] Question: Supply chain resiliency and bottlenecks - Management acknowledged challenges in the supply chain but expressed confidence in their ability to manage and mitigate these issues through advanced packaging initiatives [74] Question: Expectations for AI revenue growth in fiscal 2026 - Management noted that while they expect AI revenue to continue accelerating, they refrained from providing specific guidance for the full year [50] Question: Clarification on OpenAI contract - Management confirmed that the OpenAI agreement is a multi-year journey and will not contribute significantly in 2026 [54][57] Question: Diversity of growth among existing customers - Management indicated that growth is well spread out among existing customers, with significant contributions from XPUs and related components [66]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve is concerned about the potential impact of AI on the labor market, indicating that many jobs could be at risk due to AI advancements [1][4][5] - Jobless claims remain low, and while the unemployment rate has slightly increased, there are no dramatic productivity gains or significant rises in unemployment observed yet [2][3] - The macroeconomic effects of AI are still uncertain, particularly regarding its implementation and adoption rates in the coming years [6] 分组2 - Affordability has become a politically sensitive issue, with rising costs in education, healthcare, and housing affecting consumer spending [9][10] - The Federal Reserve has limited tools to address the affordability crisis, as rising prices in essential goods cannot be easily managed through monetary policy [11][12] - Fiscal policy, particularly actions from Congress, may be necessary to address affordability issues, such as lowering tariffs on food and providing subsidies for first-time homebuyers [14][16][17] 分组3 - The potential for a new inflationary cycle exists due to economic growth driven by AI and fiscal policies, which could lead to increased capital expenditures [19][20] - The market is experiencing a rally, possibly due to expectations of economic growth and the effects of recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [22][25] - Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts may indicate a shift towards more politicized decision-making, which could impact market stability [31][32]

Summary of First Business Financial Services Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: First Business Bank (Ticker: FBIZ) - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $4 billion - **Business Model**: Focused on business banking and private wealth management without a retail banking branch network [2][3] Core Business Segments - **Business Banking**: - Total assets of approximately $4 billion, primarily in loans [4] - Operates in four markets: Madison, Milwaukee, Appleton (Wisconsin), and Kansas City (Kansas) [4] - Offers conventional commercial banking and treasury management services [4] - Provides company retirement plans (401(k)s) and five niche C&I lending businesses: equipment finance, asset-based lending, accounts receivable financing, floor plan financing, and SBA lending [5] - **Private Wealth Management**: - Manages approximately $3.8 billion in assets, focusing on financial planning, asset management, and trust administration [5] Employee and Client Engagement - **Employee Engagement**: - 90% participation in annual employee engagement survey, with an engagement score of 86%, exceeding the finance industry benchmark of 78% [7][8] - Recognized as a top workplace by USA TODAY for five consecutive years [8] - **Client Satisfaction**: - Overall client satisfaction at 91% and a Net Promoter Score of 70, significantly higher than the banking industry average [9][10] Strategic Planning - **Current Strategic Plan**: Initiated in 2024, involving 80 employees and focusing on 11 key strategies, including: - **Culture**: Emphasizing employee engagement and cultural integrity [11][12] - **Future-Ready Talent**: Attracting and retaining skilled employees, with a focus on technology adoption [13][14] - **Deposits**: Building strong relationships with businesses to secure deposits [15][16] - **Operational Excellence**: Implementing robotic process automation for efficiency [17] - **Profitability**: Balancing growth with profitability across business lines [18] Financial Performance Metrics - **Growth Targets**: Aiming for over 10% annual growth, with actual revenue growth at 12.3% this year [19] - **Efficiency Ratio**: Currently at 59.51, below the target of 60 [19] - **Return on Equity**: Achieved 17.3%, exceeding the target of 15% [19] - **Tangible Book Value Growth**: Recorded at 15.6% annually, surpassing the target of 10% [19] Risk Management - **Asset Liability Management**: Focused on maintaining a stable net interest margin and avoiding interest rate volatility through disciplined practices [20][21] - **Credit Risk Management**: Maintains credit costs at about one-third of the industry average, with a thorough underwriting process [24][25] Loan Portfolio Characteristics - **Composition**: 40% C&I commercial and industrial loans, 60% commercial real estate [30] - **Focus Areas**: Strong growth in the C&I portfolio, particularly in treasury management and private wealth relationships [31][33] - **Credit Quality**: Normalized credit environment with stable provisioning; minor issues noted in the transportation sector [34] Investment Opportunity - **Valuation**: Currently trading at a discount relative to peers despite strong performance metrics [29][36] - **Growth Consistency**: Emphasis on organic growth strategy with a proven track record of achieving targets [36] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the First Business Financial Services conference call, highlighting the company's unique business model, strategic focus, financial performance, and investment potential.