Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economics** sector, focusing on the impact of tariffs on real spending and inflation trends in North America [1] Core Insights and Arguments - **Core PCE Inflation**: Core PCE inflation rose by **0.20% month-over-month (m/m)** in September, slightly below expectations of **0.22%**. The annual pace was recorded at **2.83%**, which is above the target of **2%** [4][5] - **Goods Prices**: There has been a gradual passthrough of tariffs, with goods prices increasing, which has negatively impacted real goods spending. Real goods spending fell by **0.4% m/m** in September, while services spending rose by **0.2%** [4][21] - **Real Personal Spending**: Real personal spending was flat in September, with nominal spending increasing by **0.3%**. The overall consumption for Q3 is expected to rise by **2.7% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** [21][22] - **Income Trends**: Real disposable personal income increased by **0.1%**, while nominal personal income rose by **0.4%**. Labor compensation also saw a rise of **0.4%** [26] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The total tariff push to PCE prices has been estimated at about **30 basis points (bp)** so far, with expectations of continued inflationary pressure from tariffs into Q4 and Q1 [7][27] - **Consumer Behavior**: Initial reports on Black Friday spending were better than anticipated, but these do not correlate well with overall spending data, indicating that prices likely influenced nominal sales [27] - **Sector Performance**: Within goods, real durable goods spending fell by **0.6% m/m**, with significant declines in auto spending and furniture. Nondurable goods spending also decreased by **0.3% m/m** [23][24] Conclusion - The overall economic outlook suggests a cooling in real spending due to higher prices driven by tariffs and slower income growth, with expectations of further deceleration in real consumption growth in Q4 [27]

Supply Chains Realign as China Loses ShareThe tariffs that were imposed have transformed global supply chains. The share of U.S. supplier volume from China, Hong Kong, and Korea has dropped from 90% to 50% over the past decade. This shift began during the first wave of tariffs in 2018 and has continued to accelerate since then.Moreover, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, and India have emerged as the biggest winners. These countries now manage a growing share of U.S.-bound production. According to Wells Fargo, s ...

The Trump administration is planning to announce $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers, as the agriculture sector grapples with the fallout from President Trump’s far-reaching tariffs https://t.co/1npGQPHFA7 ...

Port of Los Angeles Volume and Performance - Port of Los Angeles experienced a "roller coaster" year due to tariffs and trade discussions, with freight plummeting when hard policies were announced and recovering quickly when deadlines were extended [2] - The port anticipates its third-best year ever in 2025, handling approximately 1025 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEUs) [2][3] - No other port in the nation has ever crossed the 10 million TEU mark, a feat Los Angeles has now achieved three times [3] - The port's high-water mark was in 2022 at 107 million container units, following the COVID surge and increased online buying [4] - During the peak season of the past summer, the port moved more cargo than at the peak of the COVID surge without any ships backed up [15] Trade and Manufacturing Shifts - The President's efforts to increase manufacturing in the United States could potentially shift the port's volume dynamics, potentially increasing export opportunities [4][5] - A sector-specific review is needed to determine which products to manufacture in the US, how to structure supply chains, and what labor force training is required [6][7] - China's share of the port's business has decreased from approximately 60% in 2018 to 40% currently, with a continued downward trend [8][9] - Companies are increasingly sourcing from Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [9] - China is now exporting its manufacturing expertise to other countries, as outlined in their 15th 5-year plan [10] Infrastructure and Future Development - Significant progress has been made in infrastructure investment over the last four to five years, including new terminals, rail and road connectors, and inland facilities [13][14] - Further infrastructure investments are still needed, including raising a bridge, bringing more terminal capacity online, and improving rail infrastructure to expedite container evacuation [15]

Core Insights - The global trade environment has become increasingly complex, impacting procurement strategies for apparel and textile firms due to ongoing policy uncertainties [1][2] - Tariffs and trade deals significantly influence sourcing decisions and the overall supply chain, affecting raw material availability and consumer spending trends [2] Trade Environment - The trade situation has a direct effect on the entire supply chain, including raw materials, with duties and trade agreements shaping sourcing location choices [2] - A new rule announced in April provides a potential relief from tariff costs, allowing U.S. content to be exempt from duties if at least 20 percent of a product's value is derived from U.S.-produced components [3] Webinar Insights - A webinar is scheduled to discuss the current trade situation and its implications for the industry, particularly focusing on cotton [4] - Key topics will include the latest tariff developments, their impact on fiber and downstream markets, and the implications of ongoing trade deals for cotton production and shipment trends [5] - The session will also cover how importers are leveraging the U.S. content exemption and the factors influencing global cotton pricing, along with a macroeconomic outlook affecting consumer markets [5]

The Trump administration on Monday plans to unveil a long-awaited farm aid package, according to a White House official, offering $12 billion in assistance to a key base of supporters who’ve been hit hard by low crop prices and tariffs https://t.co/wOveHSSZJY ...

December 5, 2025 07:00 AM GMT US Economics Weekly | North America It's beginning to look a lot like a rate cut We now expect a 25bp cut at the Dec Fed meeting, followed by two more 25bp cuts in Jan and Apr. The cut will likely be accompanied by messaging of a higher bar for cuts moving forward. Initial Black Friday reporting was better than feared, but we still expect slower real spending growth in 4Q. M Exhibit 1: We expect cuts in Dec, Jan, and Apr to a terminal target range of 3.0- 3.25% Key Takeaways | ...

Key Takeaways December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT US Economics | North America Tariffs start to cool real spending | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Update | | December 5, 2025 03:42 PM GMT | | | | US Economics North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Michael T Gapen | | | | Chief US Economist | | | Tariffs start to cool real | Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com Sam D Coffin | +1 212 761-0571 | | | Economist | | | spending | Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com | +1 212 761-4630 | | | Diego Anzoategui | | | | Econ ...

Core Insights - A new report from WPP Media indicates that global advertising revenue is projected to reach $1.14 trillion in the current year [1] Industry Overview - The report highlights a significant growth in global ad revenue, reflecting the increasing investment in advertising across various sectors [1]

Core Insights - Google has released its Year in Search 2025, highlighting significant events and cultural moments that drove search interest spikes [1][2] Group 1: Trending Searches - The top trending search in the U.S. for 2025 was Charlie Kirk, who was fatally shot during a campus event, leading to a surge in search activity [1] - Other notable searches included Netflix's "KPop Demon Hunters," the viral collectible Labubu, Apple's iPhone 17, and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" signed into law in July [2][8] - Additional significant search spikes were observed for New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, the AI platform DeepSeek, the government shutdown, the FIFA Club World Cup, and tariffs [2][8] Group 2: Trending News and Events - Major news-related searches included the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the government shutdown, and the assassination of Charlie Kirk [8] - Other trending topics encompassed protests, natural disasters, and significant political events such as the U.S. presidential inauguration and the selection of a new Pope [8]