Group 1 - The discussion highlights that concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may be overstated, as indicated by the wide spread in the dot plot, suggesting no cohesive voting block among Fed members [2] - There is an expectation that inflation will not significantly rise due to tariffs, particularly affecting consumer electronics, and that consumer inflation expectations are not being materially impacted [3][4] - The market anticipates further rate cuts from the Fed, with a cautious approach suggested regarding the pace of these cuts, indicating a preference for a 25 basis point reduction [5][6] Group 2 - The current economic indicators show mixed signals, with labor market weakness contrasted by strength in retail sales, leading to uncertainty about the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The expectation is that the 10-year yield will remain around 4.25% through the end of next year, even as the Fed continues to cut rates [9][10]

New Federal Reserve governor Stephen Miran, who was nominated for his post by President Donald Trump last month, gave his views Friday in a TV interview. ...

Core Insights - Mastercard projects U.S. holiday retail sales (excluding autos) to rise 3.6% year over year between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24, 2025, down from a 4.1% gain last season [1][7] - Online sales are expected to increase by 7.9%, while brick-and-mortar sales are projected to see a modest 2.3% gain [1][7] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers are becoming more price-conscious due to inflation and tariffs, leading to earlier bargain-hunting and increased reliance on promotions and discounts [2] - Gift cards are gaining popularity as a cost-effective gift option in the current economic climate [2] - The labor market remains supportive, with steady wage growth cushioning consumer spending despite eased hiring momentum [2] Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to raise costs for key holiday goods such as toys, apparel, and decorations, affecting household budgets [3][4] - Retailers' strategies in handling tariff-driven expenses will influence consumer spending patterns, with some shoppers opting for cheaper alternatives [3] Influence of Social Media - Social media is anticipated to significantly impact Gen Z's buying choices, affecting trends and purchasing timing [4] Payment Companies Outlook - Increased holiday spending is expected to boost transaction volumes for payment companies like Mastercard, Visa, and American Express [5] - Mastercard and Visa's significant market share in everyday spending categories may provide insulation from tariff-related uncertainties [5] - American Express is more exposed to affluent customers, which may cushion it during economic uncertainty, but could face volume declines if tariffs impact luxury categories [5] Mastercard's Financial Performance - Mastercard shares have gained 11.3% year to date, outperforming the broader industry's 4% growth [6] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 32.12X, higher than the industry average, and carries a Value Score of D [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's 2025 earnings implies an 11.8% rise year over year, followed by 16.5% growth next year [10]

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran says there is 'no evidence' tariffs have caused inflation to rise. ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran says there is 'no evidence' tariffs have caused inflation to rise. ...

House lawmakers plan to introduce a bipartisan bill Friday to exempt coffee imports from Trump’s tariffs, a long-shot effort to shield a key commodity grown almost entirely outside the US from the president’s trade war https://t.co/CcmcIHrKP0 ...

Inflation moderated off its peak in 2022, but it has begun to rise again in recent months, primarily due to the impact of tariffs on product prices. In addition, the Fed recently shifted to a dovishI am a chemical engineer with a MS in Food Technology and Economics, and a MENSA member. I am the author of the book "Investing in Stocks and Bonds: The Early Retirement Project" (2024):I am also the author of the book "Mental Math: How to perform math calculations in your mind".I am also the author of 2 other ma ...

Apple CEO Tim Cook said price hikes on the newest iPhone models aren't tied to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariff plans."There's no increase for tariffs in the prices to be totally clear," Cook told CNBC's Jim Cramer from Apple's Fifth Avenue store location in New York City, as the latest iPhone model launched in stores worldwide.It is one of the first instances in which Cook has decisively addressed tariffs in relation to iPhone prices.Earlier this month, Apple increased the price of its iPhone 17 Pr ...

In a new essay, Minneapolis Fed President Neil Qashqari says he sees two more rate cuts coming from the central bank this year. Steve Leeman uh joins uh us now with Mr. . Qashqari.Hey, Steve. And hey, Neil. >> Good morning.>> Thank you, Joe. Let's bring in Mr. . Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed.Neil, let's talk about your um essay this morning, which is fascinating. And I just want to ask you uh first about one of the things that you say in your piece, which is that you're concerned that there cou ...