But then I get high quality alpha like this and I want to change my entire belief system. https://t.co/c2PYIvmVMkEasy (@EasyEatsBodega):3 cuts this year.25bps each FOMCSeptember, October, December ...

Core Insights - Soft U.S. inflation data for August is temporarily pushing crypto prices higher, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) falling 0.1% month-over-month, contrasting with analyst expectations of a 0.3% rise [1] - Year-over-year PPI growth is at 2.6%, down from 3.1% previously and below forecasts of 3.3% [1] - The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also fell 0.1% in August, against a forecasted rise of 0.3% [2] - Year-over-year core PPI increased by only 2.8%, compared to estimates of 3.5% and July's 3.4% [2] Crypto Market Reaction - Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $113,700, up more than 1% over the past 24 hours, while Ether (ETH) experienced a similar increase and Solana's SOL rose by 3.3% to $224 [2] - The reaction in crypto markets was swift following the PPI data release [2] Economic Context - The latest PPI reading follows a significant increase in July that raised inflation concerns amid a weakening labor market [3] - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding the PPI data, suggesting it may help suppress CPI inflation and allow the Fed to focus on labor market weaknesses [4] - Despite expectations of easier monetary policy benefiting risk assets like crypto, Bitcoin has shown volatility, rising initially but then pulling back [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - Market expectations indicate a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, with increased speculation about a possible 50 basis point cut [6] - The odds of a 50 basis point cut have risen to 10%, up from 7% prior to the PPI report [6]

3 cuts this year.25bps each FOMCSeptember, October, December ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly optimistic about US Treasuries as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September due to recent softer economic data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A significant increase in open interest was observed, with 70,000 contracts added in October fed funds futures, marking the largest daily increase for that month following a disappointing employment report [2]. - The US 10-year Treasury yields have decreased from a peak in July to their lowest levels in five months, indicating a rally in bonds as economic cooling is suggested by recent reports [4]. - The yield on two-year notes, sensitive to rate changes, fell by 2 basis points to 3.54% [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 22,000 in August, and unemployment rose to its highest level since 2021, reinforcing the view of a cooling economy [4]. - A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the number of workers on payrolls through March may be revised down by a record 911,000, further impacting market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Forecast Adjustments - Wall Street analysts are revising their forecasts to anticipate a more aggressive rate cut trajectory, with Barclays now predicting a quarter-point cut at each of the remaining meetings this year [6]. - Interest rate swaps currently reflect expectations for a full 25 basis point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, although some market participants are speculating on a larger cut due to weak economic data [6].

Market Sentiment - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed improvement in overall market sentiment, with a current reading of 51.3, indicating a "Neutral" zone compared to a prior reading of 50.2 [5] - U.S. stocks closed higher, with all three major indices reaching record highs during the session [1] Labor Market Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down nonfarm payroll jobs by 911,000 between April 2024 and March 2025, suggesting an earlier cooling of the labor market than previously anticipated [1][2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with utilities, health care, and communication services stocks showing the largest gains, while materials and industrials stocks closed lower [3] - UnitedHealth Inc. saw a significant increase of over 8% after providing a positive outlook on its Medicare Advantage business [2] Market Indices - The Dow Jones increased by approximately 196 points to close at 45,711.34, the S&P 500 rose by 0.27% to 6,512.61, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.37% to reach 21,879.49 [3] Upcoming Earnings - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Chewy Inc., Daktronics Inc., and Oxford Industries Inc. [4]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's home prices are projected to rise by approximately 5-6% over the next two years due to lower borrowing costs, although affordability issues may limit these gains [1][4]. Group 1: Home Price Forecasts - Analysts predict a 5% increase in home prices for this year, revised up from previous forecasts of 4% and 3.7% in earlier quarters [4]. - Home prices in major capital cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Perth are expected to rise between 4% and 7% this year and next [6]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - The Reserve Bank of Australia's 75-basis point cuts since February have reduced mortgage repayments, supporting modest buyer activity [3]. - Rates are expected to bottom out at 3.1% early next year, down from the current 3.6% [3]. Group 3: Affordability Concerns - The national median home value increased by around 4%, from A$814,293 in January to A$848,858 in August, indicating high historical standards [7]. - Analysts are divided on purchasing affordability over the next 12 months, with some expecting modest improvements while others predict a worsening situation [8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Lower borrowing costs are anticipated to enhance household buying capacity, exerting upward pressure on the housing market [5]. - However, the chronic undersupply in the housing market raises concerns that increased demand could further exacerbate affordability issues [9].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon believes there is no immediate need for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates rapidly, contrasting with the Trump administration's calls for looser monetary policy [1][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Solomon stated that the current policy rate does not seem extraordinarily restrictive given the current risk appetite in the market, indicating a high level of investor enthusiasm [2]. - Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to lower rates by a quarter point in their upcoming meeting, with further reductions anticipated through the end of the year [4]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the Fed should lower its benchmark rate by at least 1.5 percentage points, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack does not see a case for rate cuts this month due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - Solomon noted that while the market environment appears mostly constructive, trade policy has been a significant headwind to growth, contributing to uncertainty that has slowed investment [7]. - There are concerns that if the Fed proceeds with the anticipated rate cut, it could lead to a "Sell the News" event as investors may pull back [4].

♪ >> LIVE FROM WASHINGTON, D. C. THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" WITH JOE MATHIEU.JOE: JOB MARKET DISAPPOINTS AGAIN. JOBS DATA SHOWS WEAKER PAYROLLS AND THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT IN FOUR YEARS. THIS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO BRING PRESIDENT TRUMP THE INTEREST RATE CUTS HE HAS BEEN LOOKING FOR.THANKS FOR BEING WITH US ON THE FRIDAY EDITION. THERE MIGHT BE A CELEBRATION ABOUT INTEREST RATES AT THE WHITE HOUSE COMING UP. LOWER RATES NOT ENOUGH TO BOOST STOCK PRICES.KRITI: THIS IS A FLOORING OF ECONOMIC DATA. DPI NUMBERS WO ...

Picture this.September interest rate cuts.Crypto Spot ETFs go live in October.Fed, SEC and CFTC keep pushing out foundational crypto legislation in Q42025US pathway to trade on offshore exchanges like Binance live in Q42025HIGHERPolymarket (@Polymarket):BREAKING: Trump says Jerome Powell should have lowered interest rates a long, long time ago.99% chance he cuts rates this month.https://t.co/NZUR8hbdv1 ...

Market Overview - Global shares increased as U.S. stocks reached record highs, with Wall Street anticipating an update on the job market that may lead to interest rate cuts favored by investors [2] - In early European trading, Germany's DAX index rose 0.2% to 23,815.68, Britain's FTSE 100 increased 0.3% to 9,246.59, and Paris's CAC 40 edged up 0.1% to 7,707.13 [2] - The S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.1% [2] Economic Indicators - Japan's labor cash earnings rose 4.1% year-on-year in July, up from 3.1% in June, indicating solid wage growth [2] - Household spending in Japan climbed 1.4% in July compared to the same month last year, marking growth for the third consecutive month [2] - A report indicated that U.S. employers, excluding government, nearly halved their hiring in August compared to the previous month, while more workers applied for unemployment benefits, suggesting rising layoffs [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The slowdown in the job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut its main interest rate for the first time this year, which could stimulate the economy and job market [2] - The Fed has maintained its main interest rate due to concerns about inflation exacerbated by tariffs rather than the job market [2] Commodity Prices - U.S. crude oil prices decreased by 38 cents to $63.10 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 32 cents to $66.67 per barrel [4] - The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen, dropping to 148.14 from 148.40, while the euro rose to $1.1682 from $1.1654 [4]