Core Viewpoint - In April, China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49%, reflecting a decline of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by rapid changes in the external environment, while high-tech manufacturing sectors continued to expand [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI - The overall manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The decline in the manufacturing PMI is attributed to external environmental changes [1] Group 2: High-Tech Manufacturing - The high-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 51.5%, significantly above the overall manufacturing level, indicating a sustained positive development trend [1] - The demand in the new momentum market remains stable with an overall increase [1] Group 3: Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The new orders index for consumer goods manufacturing is at the critical point of 50%, suggesting a good release of domestic market demand [1] Group 4: Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for April is at 52.1%, remaining in the expansion zone [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply, steadily increasing demand, and positive expectations. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 80,430 yuan/ton, up 480 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,752 dollars/ton, up 42 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 10 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 198,319 lots, down 5,412 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 7,218 lots, up 534 lots [2]. - LME copper inventory was 211,375 tons, down 1,550 tons; SHFE cathode copper inventory was 235,296 tons, down 21,032 tons; SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipts were 136,003 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 80,015 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 98 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 66 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract was - 415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 71 dollars/ton, down 16.5 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 218.25 million tons, down 34.88 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 24.14 dollars/kiloton, down 1.26 dollars/kiloton [2]. - The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,270 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,970 yuan/metal ton, up 30 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.242 billion tons, up 0.109 billion tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 420,000 tons, unchanged. The social inventory of copper was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons [2]. - The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 57,590 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 67,650 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2728 billion tons, up 0.1323 billion tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 43.62 billion yuan, down 564.638 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 1,071.974 billion yuan, down 8,956.048 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,277,402,800 pieces, up 521,990,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 13.82%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 12.13%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 14.41%, down 0.0032%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.06, up 0.0652 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In March, affected by the fading of the Spring Festival factor, the manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.5%, 50.8%, and 51.4% respectively, up 0.3, 0.4, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's economy generally maintained an expansion [2]. - Fed's Williams said that the full impact of tariffs may gradually emerge over a long period, and it is necessary to focus on data to measure the impact of tariffs. Fed's Barkin said he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. ECB President Lagarde said that US tariff policies would push Europe towards "economic independence", and the ECB estimated that US tariff policies might cause the eurozone GDP to decline by 0.3% in the first year [2]. - IMF President Georgieva said that the global economic outlook might be slightly revised downward, but there were no signs of recession. From January to March, the total sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises were 810.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.8%. In March, the sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises decreased by 10.6% year - on - year [2].

Group 1: Banking Sector Developments - The four major banks in China announced plans to raise capital through a premium private placement of A-shares, with total fundraising amounts of up to RMB 105 billion, 165 billion, 120 billion, and 130 billion respectively [9] - The Ministry of Finance will subscribe to all newly issued shares of China Bank and Construction Bank, and over 90% of the new shares of the other two banks, totaling an investment of RMB 500 billion [9][10] - The issuance prices for the banks are set above their current market prices, indicating a strong government backing and a focus on enhancing the banks' risk resistance capabilities [9][10] Group 2: Consumer Market Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to accelerate the integration of domestic and foreign trade, promoting consumption of high-quality foreign products [13] - The government will expand the scope of subsidies for replacing old consumer goods, aiming to stimulate demand for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [14] - The initiative also emphasizes green consumption and resource recycling, encouraging consumers to replace inefficient products with more energy-efficient options [14] Group 3: Pension Financial System - The National Financial Supervisory Administration is working on establishing a pension financial system with Chinese characteristics over the next five years [16][17] - The plan aims to create a robust pension management service system and a diverse commercial pension financial system to meet varied consumer needs [17] - This initiative is crucial for addressing the challenges of an aging population and enhancing the stability of the financial system [17] Group 4: Real Estate Market Policies - Anhui Province has fully lifted housing restrictions and opened up inter-city loans to stimulate housing consumption and stabilize the real estate market [19][20] - The policy includes measures such as tax incentives for housing consumption and promotional activities for new housing [19][20] - This move aligns with national efforts to support the healthy development of the real estate sector [20] Group 5: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March stands at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase and continued expansion in the manufacturing sector [21][22] - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, while small and medium-sized enterprises are below the critical point but have shown significant month-on-month improvements [21][22] - The overall economic outlook is positive, with expectations for further stabilization and growth driven by targeted economic stimulus policies [22]