Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 2.9% and non-food prices up 0.9%. The average CPI from January to October decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The average PPI from January to October decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [4]. - China's gold reserves at the end of October 2025 were 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces from the end of August, showing a continuous increase for 12 months. The scale of foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3.3433 trillion, an increase of US$470 million from the end of September, with a growth rate of 0.14% [4]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The operating income was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rates from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025 were 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Different industries showed varying growth trends during this period [7]. - The contributions of different industries to the GDP growth rate also changed over time. For example, the contribution of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry to the constant-price GDP year-on-year growth rate and the pull effect on GDP showed different trends from 2013 to 2025 [13]. Industry - The year-on-year growth rates of added value in different industries showed fluctuations. For example, the coal mining and washing industry, oil and gas extraction industry, and other industries had different growth rates from August 2024 to September 2025 [22]. - The output of major industrial products also showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil, coal, steel, and other products changed from September 2024 to September 2025 [24]. - In September 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The electricity consumption of different industries also showed different growth trends [31]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Different industries had different profit growth rates, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline [5][35]. - As of the end of September 2025, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The inventory turnover days were 20.2 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared to the same period last year [5]. Price Index - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices having a significant impact on the CPI decline. Different CPI sub-items showed different year-on-year and month-on-month changes [4][49]. - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing. Different industries' PPI also showed different trends, with production materials prices generally declining more than living materials prices [56]. - The purchase price of industrial producers also showed different trends, with some categories such as fuel and power showing a decline, while others such as non-ferrous metal materials and wires showing an increase [60].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China in October is reported at 49.0%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to last month [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.0%, which is a decline of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the manufacturing PMI for October has decreased to 49% from 49.8% in September, reflecting a weaker performance compared to seasonal levels in previous years [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly increased to 50.1% from 50% in September, partially due to disruptions from holiday scheduling and a reduction in working days impacting production activities [1] - Overall, the October industrial production and export readings may be affected by holiday scheduling disruptions, while consumption indicators could see marginal improvement [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the PMI indicators remain in a weak range, suggesting that counter-cyclical policies need to be strengthened to boost the manufacturing sector's performance [1]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index stands at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting overall economic stability [1] Group 2 - In October, the production index and new orders index for manufacturing are at 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points, indicating reduced production and market demand [1] - Key industries such as food processing, automotive, and aerospace show production and new orders indices above 52.0%, indicating active supply and demand [1] - Large enterprises maintain production and new orders indices above the critical point, with values of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1] Group 3 - High-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries have PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for October is at 52.8%, indicating optimistic market expectations among manufacturing enterprises [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index reflects a slight increase, with the service sector's index at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in service sector activity [2] Group 4 - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises regarding industry development [2] - Overall, non-manufacturing sectors are stabilizing, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities, supported by effective growth policies [2] - The fourth quarter is expected to see strengthened domestic demand, providing solid support for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices continued to decline due to weak demand expectations, a strong dollar, and profit-taking after reaching record highs [1] - As of October 31, LME three-month copper fell by $29.5, or 0.27%, closing at $10,887.5 per ton, marking a drop for the second consecutive day after hitting $11,200 [1][2] - In October, copper prices have increased by $619, or 6.03%, marking the third consecutive month of gains [3] Group 2 - China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.0% in October, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while the non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 50.1% [5] - ING's commodity strategist noted that the sentiment in the base metals market is poor, with supply disruptions expected to keep prices around $10,000 per ton, but strong demand growth is needed for further price increases [5] - Citigroup analysts remain optimistic about copper prices, predicting an increase by 2026 due to cyclical demand expectations and constrained mine supply [5] - A stronger dollar index has added pressure to the market, making dollar-denominated assets more expensive for holders of other currencies [5] - Marex warned that copper prices may further decline, suggesting caution as some indicators hint at potential price corrections [5]

Group 1 - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from last month, reflecting weakened production and market demand [1] - Large enterprises maintained production and new orders indices above the critical point, with values of 50.9% and 50.1%, respectively, indicating sustained expansion for six consecutive months [1] Group 2 - Three key sectors, namely high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods, reported PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, indicating that most manufacturing companies maintain an optimistic outlook for market development [2] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index continued to expand at 50.2%, reflecting a slight recovery in service sector activity levels [3] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector was 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service enterprises regarding industry development [3]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from September, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities [1] - The production index and new orders index for manufacturing were 49.7% and 48.8%, respectively, reflecting declines of 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points from September [1] - PMI for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1%, showing declines of 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points respectively [1] Group 2: Key Industries - The PMIs for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors were 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1%, respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone and significantly above the overall manufacturing level [2] - The high-energy-consuming industries had a PMI of 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a decline in economic activity [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from September, indicating expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [3] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.2%, reflecting a slight increase and improved economic conditions, particularly in transportation, accommodation, and entertainment sectors, which saw indices above 60.0% [3] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from September, indicating a slight decline in construction activity [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector continues to stabilize, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [4] - The effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, supporting the achievement of annual economic and social development goals [4]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic output of China remains stable, with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while non-manufacturing sectors exhibit growth due to holiday consumption and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [2][3]. - All 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI declined, with the production index falling to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activities [3]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, reflecting tightening export demand due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [4]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, three key sectors—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [5][6]. - These sectors showed resilience, with production and new orders indices around 51%, indicating stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policies [6]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices are showing positive changes, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing experiencing rising purchase and factory price indices [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profit margins [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing expansion and a positive trend in service sector activities, particularly in transportation and hospitality due to holiday effects [8]. - Infrastructure investment activities are showing signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering construction index rising significantly, suggesting a solid foundation for growth in the fourth quarter [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October has declined to 49.0%, marking the first drop in three months, attributed to seasonal factors and a complex international environment [1][2]. Group 1: PMI Overview - The October PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in manufacturing activity due to pre-holiday demand release and external factors [1]. - Historical data indicates that the PMI typically declines in October, aligning with seasonal trends observed over the past decade [1][2]. Group 2: Sub-Indices Analysis - In October, various sub-indices such as production, new orders, and new export orders all saw declines, with the new export orders index at 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, indicating a tightening in manufacturing exports [2]. - The production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, consistent with seasonal patterns and external trade uncertainties [2]. Group 3: Stability Factors - Despite the decline in PMI, there are signs of stability in the manufacturing sector, with high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods industries maintaining PMIs above 50, indicating expansion [3]. - Large enterprises continue to play a stabilizing role, with their production and new orders indices remaining in the expansion zone for six consecutive months [3]. Group 4: Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index for October was at 52.8%, suggesting a generally optimistic outlook among manufacturers [3]. - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose by 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, indicating overall stability in business operations [3]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that external environmental disturbances may gradually ease, which could benefit the recovery of China's manufacturing and macroeconomic landscape [4]. - There is a recognition of the need for increased macroeconomic policy adjustments to address insufficient effective demand impacting production investment [4].

Core Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index in China for October is reported at 50.1%, indicating a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points, suggesting stable operational activity in the non-manufacturing sector [1][2] Group 1: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The inventory index, input prices index, sales prices index, employment index, and business activity expectations index all saw increases ranging from 0.2 to 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The new orders index remained unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable demand in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The new export orders index, backlog of orders index, and supplier delivery time index experienced declines, with decreases ranging from 0.2 to 3.6 percentage points [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The construction activity index in the civil engineering sector rose significantly to above 55%, indicating a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment activities at the beginning of the fourth quarter [2] - Overall, the non-manufacturing sector continues to show stability, with positive changes in investment and consumption-related activities [2] - The release of policies aimed at stabilizing growth is expected to strengthen domestic demand in the fourth quarter, providing solid support for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]