Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery signals in the Chinese economy post-Spring Festival, with key indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index returning to expansion territory, indicating improved economic confidence and activity levels [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - In March, the manufacturing new orders index rose to 51.6%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [5]. - The new export orders index improved significantly to 49.1%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points, reflecting better external demand [5]. - The production index for manufacturing rose to 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, signaling a steady recovery in production as companies resumed operations post-holiday [5]. - Employment in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed improvement, with indices rising to near 50%, indicating stabilization in new growth sectors [6]. - The production expectations index for March was 53.4%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms regarding market developments [6]. Price Dynamics and Material Costs - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.9%, indicating expansion in raw material procurement activities, while the purchasing price index surged to 63.9%, reflecting a significant increase in raw material prices [7]. - The ex-factory price index reached 55.4%, marking a new high since April 2022, driven by rising demand and material costs [7]. - The rapid increase in basic raw material prices, with the purchasing price index exceeding 70%, has led to higher costs for downstream manufacturing sectors [8]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has contributed to rising costs in oil and chemical sectors, impacting overall manufacturing costs and potentially affecting production rhythms [9]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for March was 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase, with construction and service sectors showing varied performance [11]. - The construction activity index rose to 49.3%, indicating a slight recovery post-Spring Festival, while service-related sectors faced challenges due to rising costs from geopolitical tensions [12]. - The retail, accommodation, and catering sectors experienced a decline in activity levels, suggesting a need for further monitoring of consumer demand recovery [13].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2026, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from February, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2] - The production index accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, while the new orders index surged by 3.0 percentage points to 51.6%[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing an average rebound of 0.9 percentage points in the month following the Spring Festival[3] Group 2: Export and Economic Policy Impact - The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, contributing significantly to the rise in new orders[4] - The government's macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with infrastructure investment growth significantly accelerating, supporting the improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - Despite the positive trends, uncertainties from the Middle East and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector may negatively impact domestic manufacturing operations[5] Group 3: Price Indices and Future Outlook - The ex-factory price index rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, while the main raw material purchase price index surged by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%[5] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to around 49.8% in April, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, following the typical seasonal pattern[7] - The ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on global economic conditions may further influence domestic manufacturing and export resilience[8]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in economic activity [2][3] - Both production index and new orders index fell to 49.6% and 48.6% respectively, showing a slowdown in production and market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 51.5%, while small and medium-sized enterprises faced significant impacts from the Spring Festival, with PMIs of 47.5% and 44.8% respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [6] - The service sector's business activity index increased to 49.7%, driven by growth in travel-related industries, with hospitality and entertainment sectors showing indices above 60.0% [6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.2%, reflecting a decline due to the Spring Festival, although the market expectation index for construction improved to 50.9% [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 49.6% and 49.5% respectively, contributing to the overall decline in the comprehensive PMI [7]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in February dropped to 49.0%, indicating a short-term slowdown in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 49.5%, reflecting a recovery in the service sector driven by holiday consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 49.0%, a decline from the previous month, with decreases observed in production index, new orders index, and other related indices, with declines ranging from 0.1 to 2.8 percentage points [3]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 48.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a tightening of market demand primarily due to seasonal factors, including the timing of the Spring Festival [3]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decrease, marking 13 consecutive months of growth, with new orders and production indices also indicating stable demand [5][6]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the service sector showing significant recovery, particularly in accommodation, dining, and entertainment industries [9]. - The business activity index for the service sector was reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points, driven by holiday-related consumption [9]. - The civil engineering construction industry showed signs of improvement, with the new orders index rising, indicating potential growth in infrastructure-related demand post-holiday [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive sentiment towards the A-share market, with the Hedge Fund Manager A-share Confidence Index at 125.50, reflecting a 0.45% increase from January 2026 [2][5]. Core Insights - The confidence index shows an upward trend, suggesting that hedge fund managers have increased confidence in the A-share market for February 2026 compared to January 2026 [2][5]. - The average position of private equity managers in subjective long positions is reported at 79%, which is a 1% increase from the end of December 2025 [5][7]. - The report highlights that 94% of private equity funds are positioned at 50% or more, with 24.6% fully invested or using leverage, a slight decrease of 0.2% from the previous month [5][8]. Summary by Sections A-share Confidence Index and Private Equity Positions - The A-share Confidence Index for February 2026 is 125.50, up 0.45% from January 2026, indicating a rise in confidence among private equity managers [2][5]. - The average position of subjective long strategy private equity funds is 79%, up 1% from December 2025 [5][7]. - 94% of private equity funds are above 50% in their positions, with 48.1% in the 80% or more range, an increase of 2.8% from the previous month [5][8]. Confidence Indicators - The trend expectation confidence indicator for February 2026 is 134.94, up 1.0% from the previous month, with 5.2% of fund managers extremely optimistic [13][14]. - 61.3% of fund managers are optimistic, a rise of 2.7%, while 32% hold a neutral view, down 2% [13][14]. - The investment plan indicator for position adjustments is 111.34, down 0.6%, with 67.7% of managers planning to maintain their positions [13][14]. Market Review and Outlook - In 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 485.186 billion, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with private investment down 6.4% [17]. - The retail sales total for 2025 was 501.202 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase year-on-year, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% [18]. - The report notes a stable export performance, with total exports for 2025 reaching 377.187 billion USD, showing resilience against external pressures [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments, and attention should be paid to the 24,000 support level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,320 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,370 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 42 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 215,326 lots, a decrease of 17,909 lots [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,607 lots, an increase of 5,829 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, with no change [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 73,151 tons, a decrease of 3,160 tons; the LME inventory is 110,000 tons, an increase of 250 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 820 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,170 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 455 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 8.41 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.97 US dollars [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 22,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 370 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 112,200 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3] - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, an increase of 208.942 million square meters [3] - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 43.36%, an increase of 7.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 43.35%, an increase of 7.27 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 39.69%, an increase of 5.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 18.58%, an increase of 3.75 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and the effective market demand was still insufficient. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the prosperity level decreased compared with the previous month, but production continued to expand [3] - In January, affected by factors such as the decline in the prosperity of the construction industry, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall prosperity level of the non - manufacturing industry declined [3] - The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown is unavoidable. House Speaker Johnson said he is "confident" that the government will resume operation before Tuesday [3] - Trump said that Walsh did not promise him an interest rate cut, but he "certainly wants an interest rate cut" [3] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - The upstream zinc ore import volume is high, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have significantly decreased. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and it is expected that production will continue to be restricted [3] - Recently, the LME zinc price has corrected, the Shanghai - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. However, policy support in areas such as the automobile industry brings some highlights [3] - The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen, downstream purchases have become lighter, the spot premium has decreased, and the domestic social inventory has remained stable with a slight increase. The LME zinc inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has remained at a low level [3] - Technically, the price has declined with increasing volume and decreasing open interest, and the bullish sentiment has decreased [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at 1.32. The overall trading atmosphere will calm down as the Spring Festival approaches, and the national stainless - steel social inventory will enter a seasonal accumulation period. The raw material supply of ferronickel will face contraction pressure, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved but cost support has shifted upward, the downstream demand is turning to the off - season, and the export demand shows strong resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,873 lots, an increase of 4,556 lots; the main contract position is 83,445 lots, a decrease of 15,566 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 43,818 tons, an increase of 239 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless - steel is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 445 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 140,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,950 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,070 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 549,000 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term shutdown is inevitable. In the raw material end, the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening, and the RKAB plan in Indonesia will significantly cut the quota next year, which will bring production reduction pressure to ferronickel production [2].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2][3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium enterprises show lower PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in sentiment [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, signaling a decrease in overall non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with significant activity in financial services, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0%, indicating weak sentiment [4] - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday, with a cautious outlook reflected in the business activity expectations index dropping below the critical point [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive PMI output index [5]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [2] - The production index stands at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a drop in market demand [2] - Certain industries such as agricultural processing and aerospace have production and new orders indices above 56.0%, indicating strong demand, while sectors like petroleum and automotive show indices below the critical point, suggesting a slowdown in market demand [2] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, both showing increases from the previous month, with the factory price index rising above the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months [3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, reflecting a decline in their economic performance [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, indicating a decrease in their economic conditions [3] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, indicating optimism among enterprises, particularly in agricultural processing and food industries, which have indices above 56.0% [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January is 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [4] - The service industry business activity index is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, with sectors like financial services showing high activity indices above 65.0%, while the real estate sector drops below 40.0%, indicating weak performance [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The production index was at 50.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting that manufacturing production is still expanding [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was 52.0%, maintaining a strong performance for two consecutive months, while equipment manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, also indicating expansion [1] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in overall non-manufacturing activity [2] - The construction industry experienced a significant drop, with its business activity index at 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [2] - The service sector's business activity index was 49.5%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points, while the service sector's business activity expectation index rose to 57.1%, indicating increased confidence among service enterprises [3] Group 3: Price Indices - The purchasing price index and the factory price index rose to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, with the factory price index surpassing the critical point for the first time in nearly 20 months, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for January was 52.6%, remaining above the critical point, suggesting optimism among enterprises regarding future activities [2] - Analysts expect that after the Spring Festival, manufacturing will continue to stabilize and expand, supported by policy implementation and market demand [2][3]