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用电量连续破万亿千瓦时 怎么看?
今年7月、8月,全社会用电量分别达到10226亿千瓦时、10154亿千瓦时—— 用电量连续破万亿千瓦时,怎么看? 全社会用电量接连超万亿千瓦时!最近,国家能源局发布7、8月份的用电量数据。其中,7月份全社会 用电量10226亿千瓦时,同比增长8.6%;8月份全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时,同比增长5%。 单月用电量破万亿千瓦时,意味着什么?这背后有什么样的经济发展趋势? 如何理解万亿千瓦时? ——横向看,万亿千瓦时相当于日本全年的用电量总和;纵向看,这一数据在10年间翻了1倍 用电量,被视作经济社会运行的"晴雨表""风向标"。透过这一数据的变化,可以较为直观地观察背后的 经济发展势头。 ——持续高温天气下,各地电力负荷快速攀升;宏观经济保持回暖态势,各行业产能持续释放 单月用电量破万亿千瓦时,这背后有哪些因素的作用? 一方面,有持续高温的天气推动。今年入夏以来,全国多地出现高温闷热天气,各地电力负荷快速攀 升,带动城乡居民生活用电量快速增长。仅7月4日,全国最大电力负荷就达到14.65亿千瓦,较6月底上 升约2亿千瓦,创历史新高(2024年为14.51亿千瓦),较去年同期增长接近1.5亿千瓦。江苏、安徽、山 ...
郭磊:9月PMI的七个信号|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-07 08:38
文/ 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 9 月 PMI 数 据 公 布 , 这 是 在 EPMI 、 BCI 之 后 公 布 的 第 三 个 关 于 9 月 经 济 的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别,但指向基本一致,9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善 。 9月经济出现季节性改善 9月PMI数据公布,这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别,但指向基本一致,9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立,比如2018、2021年,9月PMI均是环比下行的,2016年9月是环比持平。 Wind数据显示,9月EPMI(战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数)环比上行4.6个点至52.4。秋旺特征显现,环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值 水平。长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后,9月出现跃升,从前值的46.9回升至51.1,表现略超预期。9月PMI为49.8,高于前值的49.4。 PMI表明七个强经济信号 一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至2.2个点。生产指标,处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能 一则是金融条 ...
前8月规上工业企业利润同比实现增长
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-10-03 21:45
Core Insights - The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year-on-year in the first eight months, reversing the continuous decline in profits since May of this year [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a profit growth of 7.4%, accelerating by 2.6 percentage points compared to the first seven months [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry experienced a profit growth of 9.4%, an acceleration of 5.5 percentage points [1] Sector Analysis - The profit growth of the equipment manufacturing industry was 7.2%, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size, making it one of the strongest driving sectors [1] - The raw materials manufacturing sector also showed rapid profit growth, while the consumer goods manufacturing sector shifted from a decline to an increase in profits [1]
1-8月份工业企业利润增长0.9%,谁在推动这场“逆袭”?
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-03 01:43
从"量"和"价"的因素看,8月份,全国规模以上工业增加值同比增速为5.2%,较7月份的5.7%有所下降。 工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降2.9%,自今年3月份以来首次降幅收窄;环比结束连续8个月 下行态势,由上月下降0.2%转为持平。企业每百元营业收入中的成本同比减少0.20元,为2024年7月份 以来首次当月同比减少。可以看出,工业生产"量"的增长对利润的贡献有限,利润的改善更多依赖 于"价"和"利润率"的提升。 从产业结构层面观察,工业企业利润回升呈现出显著的高质量发展特征。今年前8个月,规模以上装备 制造业利润同比增长7.2%,拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增长2.5个百分点。作为技术密集型产业的 代表,装备制造业利润增速显著高于工业平均水平,背后是高端装备、智能制造等新兴领域快速发展所 带来的价值提升。同时,人工智能、工业互联网等新一代信息技术与传统产业深度融合,催生出一批新 的经济增长点。此外,原材料制造业和消费品制造业的利润也在改善,反映出上下游产业链协同恢复的 良好态势。 利润增速转正是一个积极信号,但它只是一个开始。当前,外部环境的不确定性依然存在,国内市场需 求仍然不足,部分行业仍面 ...
工业企业利润何以“逆袭”
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-10-02 22:15
Core Viewpoint - The industrial enterprises' profit growth has turned positive, indicating a recovery in the industrial economy and reflecting the effectiveness of industrial transformation and upgrading [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Economic Indicators - From January to August, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year-on-year, reversing the declining trend since May [1]. - In August alone, the profit growth rate surged to 20.4%, supported by a low base effect from the previous year when profits fell by 17.8% due to natural disasters and insufficient demand [2]. - The industrial added value growth rate in August was 5.2%, slightly down from 5.7% in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a narrowing of the decline since March [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Profit Recovery - The recovery in profits is driven by macro policies and market forces, including large-scale equipment updates and policies to boost domestic demand [2]. - The improvement in profits is not solely attributed to low base effects; it also reflects substantial positive changes in the industrial economy [2]. - The profit growth is supported by a reduction in costs, with costs per 100 yuan of revenue decreasing by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [3]. Group 3: Sectoral Performance and Quality Development - The profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [3]. - High-quality development characteristics are evident in the profit recovery, with emerging fields like high-end equipment and smart manufacturing driving value enhancement [3]. - The integration of new information technologies, such as artificial intelligence and industrial internet, with traditional industries is creating new economic growth points [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - While the profit growth is a positive signal, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and insufficient domestic demand [4]. - Continuous efforts in technological innovation, demand expansion, and environmental optimization are necessary to stabilize and improve industrial profits [4]. - The promotion of "Artificial Intelligence+" initiatives and the implementation of policies to combat "involution" are essential for enhancing market mechanisms and ensuring sustainable profit growth [4].
我国制造业景气水平继续改善
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-09-30 12:00
央视网消息(新闻联播):国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会今天(9月30日)联合公布,9月份中国 制造业采购经理指数为49.8%,比上月上升0.4个百分点。指数连续两个月环比上升,制造业景气水平继 续改善。生产指数连续两个月环比上升,制造业整体生产活动加快扩张。市场需求景气度有所改善,新 订单指数和新出口订单指数均连续两个月环比上升。新动能继续较快增长。9月份装备制造业采购经理 指数为51.9%,较上月上升1.4个百分点,扩张加快,行业供需两端均较为活跃。消费品制造业采购经理 指数重回扩张区间,并创下今年以来最高点。市场预期持续改善,生产经营活动预期指数连续三个月环 比上升,制造业企业对近期市场发展信心较强。总体来看,9月份宏观经济稳中向好,多个积极因素累 积,市场活力有所上升。 ...
制造业PMI连续两个月回升,后续怎么看?:——2025年9月PMI点评
EBSCN· 2025-09-30 10:42
2025 年 9 月 30 日 总量研究 制造业 PMI 连续两个月回升,后续怎么看? ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 点评 作者 执业证书编号:S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评(2025-08-31) 7 月制造业 PMI 缘何回落?——2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评(2025-07-31) 外部扰动减弱,内生动能修复——2025 年 6 月 PMI 点评(2025-06-30) "抢出口"带动制造业 PMI 回暖——2025 年 5 月 PMI 点评(2025-05-31) 经济新动能加快释放——2025 年 3 月 PMI 点评(2025-03-31) 2 月制造业 PMI"开门红"——2025 年 2 月 PMI 点评(2025-03-01) 分析师:赵格格 执业证书编号:S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师:刘星辰 1 月制造业 PMI 为何回落?——2025 年 1 月 PMI 点评(2025-01- ...
宏观纵览 | 制造业PMI连续两月回升,下阶段走势如何?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 08:23
Group 1: Macro Policy and Manufacturing Sector - The macro policy is expected to be intensified and implemented, with the manufacturing PMI showing a slight recovery to 49.8% in September, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing policy effects [2] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a continuous expansion for two months, while the procurement volume index increased to 51.6%, suggesting improved production activities [6] - The new orders index for manufacturing increased to 49.7%, indicating a stabilization in market demand, while the new export orders index rose to 47.8%, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [6][8] Group 2: Price Trends and Industry Outlook - The purchasing price index for manufacturing decreased to 53.2%, and the factory price index fell to 48.2%, indicating a mixed price trend across different industries [7] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index rose to 54.1%, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly in sectors like food processing, automotive, and aerospace [8] - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with the construction sector showing slight improvement, while the service sector experienced a minor decline [11][12]
【广发宏观郭磊】9月PMI的七个信号
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-09-30 07:23
广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一, 9月PMI数据公布,这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强 弱有别,但指向基本一致,9月经济出现了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立,比 如2018、2021年,9月PMI均是环比下行的,2016年9月是环比持平。 第二, 从PMI来看,目前经济信号之一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至 2.2个点。生产指标,处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能一则是金融条件有利于供给;二则是 在价格和利润率偏低背景下,企业可能更倾向于以量补价。 第三, 从PMI来看,目前经济的信号之二是出口景气度没有变化。5月以来一直处于47-48之间,其中季度末 的6月、9月是两个高点。这与集装箱吞吐量持续偏高的情况也比较吻合。我们理解尽管关税、"抢出口"可能 带来一定节奏波动,但中国制造护城河仍较为明显,海外"财政端扩张+货币端降息"的环境也整体有利于外 需。 第四, 从PMI来看,目前经济的信号之三是大企业景气度较高,小企业短期改善较明显,中型企业压力偏 ...
9月PMI出炉!金融业成亮点
券商中国· 2025-09-30 07:05
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]