文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 3月4日，国家统计局公布2月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值49.3%；非制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49.4%。 核心观点：2月PMI进一步回落，或源于春节假期偏长、偏晚对供给端产生较大约束。 建筑业景气回落，新订单指数回落幅度较大。 2月，建筑业PMI指数延续回落，单月下行0.6个百分点至48.2%。分项中，新订单指数较前月上行2.1个百分点至 42.2%。 制造业PMI：受春节假期偏长、偏晚的影响，2月制造业PMI进一步回落。 2月，制造业PMI在前月低基数下，进一步回落0.3个百分点至49%。虽然PMI分析 已考虑季节性因素，但2026年春节效应对制造业PMI影响仍较明显。一是今年春节假期长达9天、为"史上最长"，会约束制造业景气度。二是今年春节假期位 于2月中下旬，而2月24日(正月初八)假期结束后复工偏慢，PMI采集时间恰好在该时间段，也会影响PMI读数。 从PMI分项看，春节假期对供给端压制明显，令制造业生产指数的回落幅度大于新订单指数。 PMI统计对象是采购经理，虽然新订单统计包括中间需求，生 产端走弱会拖累新订单指数；但春节 ...

2026 年 3 月 4 日 总量研究 春节效应拖累制造业景气度 ——2026 年 2 月 PMI 点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 开年经济成色几何？——2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评（2026-01-31） PMI 重回扩张区间，助力全年经济圆满收官 ——2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评（2025-12-31） 出口改善推动制造业 PMI 回稳——2025 年 11 月 PMI 点评（2025-11-30） 制造业 PMI 为何超季节性回落？——2025 年 10 月 PMI 点评（2025-10-31） 要点 制造业 PMI 连续两个月回升，后续怎么看？ ——2025 年 9 月 PMI 点评（2025-09-30） 8 月经济运行的三点特征——2025 年 8 月 PMI 点评（2025-08-31） 7 月制造业 PMI 缘何回落？——2025 年 7 月 PMI ...

PMI 数据 2026 年 03 月 04 日 如何理解 2 月 PMI 下行? 中采 PMI 点评（26.02） 事件: 3 月 4 日，国家统计局公布 2 月 PMI 指数, 制造业 PMI 为 49%、前值 49.3%; 非制造业 PMI 为 49.5%、前值 49.4%。 核心观点：2 月 PMI 进一步回落，或源于春节假期偏长、偏晚对供给端产生较大约束。 ● 制造业 PMI: 受春节假期偏长、偏晚的影响, 2 月制造业 PMI 进一步回落。2 月, 制造 业 PMI 在前月低基数下，进一步回落 0.3 个百分点至 49%。虽然 PMI 分析已考虑季节性 因素，但 2026 年春节效应对制造业 PMI 影响仍较明显。 一是今年春节假期长达 9 天、 为"史上最长"，会约束制造业景气度。二是今年春节假期位于 2 月中下旬，而 2 月 24 日(正月初八)假期结束后复工偏慢，PMI 采集时间恰好在该时间段，也会影响 PMI 读数。 服务业 PMI 回升,新订单指数有所下行。2 月,服务业 PMI 小幅回升,单月上行 0.2 个 百分点至 49.7%。主要分项中,新订单指数有所回落,较前月下行 1.4 个百 ...

文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 摘要 事件： 3月4日，国家统计局公布2月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49%、前值49.3%；非制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49.4%。 核心观点：2月PMI进一步回落，或源于春节假期偏长、偏晚对供给端产生较大约束。 制造业PMI：受春节假期偏长、偏晚的影响，2月制造业PMI进一步回落。 2月，制造业PMI在前月低基数下，进一步回落0.3个百分点至49%。虽然PMI分析 已考虑季节性因素，但2026年春节效应对制造业PMI影响仍较明显。一是今年春节假期长达9天、为"史上最长"，会约束制造业景气度。二是今年春节假期位 于2月中下旬，而2月24日(正月初八)假期结束后复工偏慢，PMI采集时间恰好在该时间段，也会影响PMI读数。 从PMI分项看，春节假期对供给端压制明显，令制造业生产指数的回落幅度大于新订单指数。 PMI统计对象是采购经理，虽然新订单统计包括中间需求，生 产端走弱会拖累新订单指数；但春节假期造成的供给侧走弱对生产端影响更大，制造业生产指数降幅较大、较前月下行1个百分点至49.6%，新订单指数较前 月下行0.6个百分点至48.6%；其中内需订单指数回落0. ...

宏 观 研 究 PMI 数据 从行业看，春节假期停工对行业产生普遍影响，其中资本密集型行业 PMI 有较大回落， 劳动密集型行业景气度维持低位。从统计局公布的四大类行业 PMI 来看，春节假期停工 对行业供给产生了普遍约束，其中高技术制造业、装备制造业 PMI 较前月分别回落 0.5、 0.3 个百分点至 51.5%、49.8%；劳动密集型行业如消费品制造业、高耗能行业 PMI 维 持低位，分别为 48.8%、47.8%。 非制造业 PMI：春节假期的不对称影响进一步体现，建筑业 PMI 继续下滑，与出行相关 的服务业 PMI 则延续改善。传统基建亦受春节效应的影响，建筑业景气度在前月低基数 的影响上进一步回落 0.6 个百分点至 48.2%。而服务业 PMI 有所改善，较前月回升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%。结构上看，与居民出行消费相关的住宿、餐饮等行业 PMI 均位于 60% 以上高景气区间，零售、航空运输等行业 PMI 也升至 52%以上。 展望后续：复工复产推进叠加扩内需政策加码下，PMI 或有回升，后续重点关注内需领 域的边际变化。春节假期等短期因素扰动 2 月 PMI 景气度，但制造业、建筑业 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a marginal decline in trading volume [1][10] Macro Data Analysis - In December 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned positive, with an annual cumulative growth rate of 0.6%, breaking a three-year trend of negative growth [4][20] - The improvement in profits is attributed to supply-side management policies like "anti-involution" [4][20] - Foreign and state-owned enterprises performed better, with state-owned enterprises' profit decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [4][20] - Private enterprises saw profit growth stagnate, contrasting with the previous year's positive growth, which negatively impacted overall industrial profit growth [4][20] - Manufacturing benefited from "anti-involution" and overseas expansion, with a growth rate of 5.0%, rebounding by 8.9 percentage points from 2024 [4][20] - The equipment manufacturing sector contributed 2.8 percentage points to the overall industrial profit growth, while upstream raw material manufacturing showed marginal recovery [4][20] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is experiencing a significant adjustment in weak dollar-related sectors due to liquidity issues in the commodity market [11][25] - The market's sensitivity to macro liquidity shocks has increased, leading to a demand for certainty and risk aversion in investments [11][25] - Despite the current market challenges, there are still structural opportunities, and new leading sectors may emerge with macro changes [11][25] Mid-term Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [12][26] - The market is expected to continue generating thematic opportunities supported by a loose monetary policy and low-interest environment [12][26] Long-term Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance capabilities [13][27] - The potential for foreign capital inflow into China's equity market may provide support, especially with the current favorable conditions for the RMB against the USD [13][27] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation phase, while aggressive sectors may face pressure [28][29] - Continued focus on technology sectors, particularly in AI and domestic technology advancements, is recommended [28][29] - There is potential for investment in domestic demand-related sectors, especially those showing signs of recovery amid inflation expectations [28][29]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is attributed to the early return of workers for the Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [1][6][7] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the growth threshold, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers for the Spring Festival [1][7] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [4][38] - The purchasing index dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, reflecting a weaker supply side due to the early return of workers [2][16] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI down 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down 1 percentage point to 47.9% [2][22] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively, remaining above the growth threshold [2][22] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI also showed a decline, dropping by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, primarily due to a significant decrease in the construction sector, which fell by 4 percentage points to 48.8% [4][43] - The service sector PMI remained relatively resilient, only decreasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with certain areas like railway transport showing strong performance [3][25] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may distort PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by consumer demand and service sector policies [3][32] - Despite short-term weaknesses in manufacturing and construction, the average PMI over the next two months is anticipated to reflect ongoing economic recovery [3][32]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][8][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI showed asymmetric characteristics, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than historical averages, indicating a substantial impact from the early return of workers [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic outlook remains positive, with expectations of recovery in the coming months [4][34][63] - Recent trends in service consumption and travel during the Spring Festival are expected to support service sector growth, highlighting the importance of monitoring consumer demand [4][34][63]

Core Viewpoint - The significant decline in January PMI is primarily attributed to the early return of workers for the 2026 Spring Festival and weak domestic demand, with manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3% from 50.1% and non-manufacturing PMI falling to 49.4% from 50.2% [2][7][61] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell below the neutral line, decreasing by 0.8 percentage points to 49.3%, influenced by statistical factors and the early return of workers [2][8][61] - The manufacturing production index declined by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2% [5][41][64] - The purchasing index for manufacturing dropped significantly by 2.4 percentage points to 48.7%, indicating a notable contraction in supply [3][15][62] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - Labor-intensive sectors such as consumer goods and high-energy industries experienced a more pronounced decline in PMI, with consumer goods PMI falling by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3% and high-energy PMI down by 1 percentage point to 47.9% [3][22][62] - In contrast, capital-intensive sectors like high-tech and equipment manufacturing saw smaller declines, with PMIs of 52% and 50.1%, respectively [3][22][62] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing sector showed asymmetric effects from the early return of workers, with the construction PMI dropping to 48.8%, a decline of 4 percentage points, while the service sector PMI only slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5% [4][25][62] - The construction sector's decline is more significant than the average historical drop of 1.4 percentage points for January since 2017 [4][25][62] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The early Spring Festival may disrupt PMI readings for January and February, but the overall economic recovery trend is expected to continue, supported by travel and consumption during the holiday [4][34][63] - Recent policies aimed at boosting service consumption are anticipated to support the service sector's recovery, with a focus on changes in consumer demand [4][34][63]