Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the city is on the "113388" work system and the "three major battles," emphasizing the "project-oriented" approach to drive rapid project initiation, construction, and production [1] - From January to September, the city's fixed asset investment increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from newly registered projects, injecting strong momentum into high-quality economic development [1] - Manufacturing investment is a key support for investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, contributing 4.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Group 2 - The private economy continues to thrive, with private investment becoming the main driving force for growth, increasing by 20.5% year-on-year and accounting for 70.4% of total investment [3] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 25.7%, with manufacturing private investment making up 55.3% of total private investment, reflecting strong confidence among private enterprises [3] - Infrastructure investment grew by 8.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth, with notable performance in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of new project registrations is significant, with 466 new projects registered from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and completed investment growing by 46.1% [4] - Among the new projects, 212 projects with investments of over 100 million yuan saw a 55.9% increase in completed investment year-on-year [4] - Industrial new projects totaled 353, with a year-on-year growth of 27.0% and completed investment growth of 86.4%, highlighting the ongoing importance of project construction [4]

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic output of China remains stable, with manufacturing showing signs of weakness while non-manufacturing sectors exhibit growth due to holiday consumption and infrastructure investment [2][3]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In October, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, marking the end of a two-month upward trend [2][3]. - All 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI declined, with the production index falling to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activities [3]. - The new export orders index fell to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, reflecting tightening export demand due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [4]. Key Industries Performance - Despite the overall decline in manufacturing, three key sectors—high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained expansion with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [5][6]. - These sectors showed resilience, with production and new orders indices around 51%, indicating stable growth supported by domestic market strength and effective policies [6]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices are showing positive changes, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing experiencing rising purchase and factory price indices [7]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which is beneficial for profit margins [7]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, reflecting ongoing expansion and a positive trend in service sector activities, particularly in transportation and hospitality due to holiday effects [8]. - Infrastructure investment activities are showing signs of acceleration, with the civil engineering construction index rising significantly, suggesting a solid foundation for growth in the fourth quarter [8].

Core Insights - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector in October is reported at 49%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors and external conditions [1][2] - Despite the decline in PMI, new momentum and consumer goods manufacturing are showing steady growth, with key sectors like equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing remaining in the expansion zone [2][4] Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing price index reached a new high since June 2024, while the high-tech manufacturing price index hit a new high since 2025, indicating positive price changes in the manufacturing sector [4] - The production index and new orders index for key manufacturing sectors are operating around 51%, reflecting a stable expansion [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, maintaining levels above 50 since 2025 [7] - The service sector shows strong performance, particularly in contact-based services related to travel, shopping, and entertainment, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60% [6] Investment and Economic Outlook - There are signs of accelerated construction activities related to infrastructure investment, with the civil engineering business activity index rising above 55%, and new orders index increasing to over 49% [9] - The business activity expectation index for non-manufacturing is at 56.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the sector, supported by fiscal and monetary policy collaboration [9]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [2][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in production activities [6] - New export orders index dropped to 45.9%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point this year, reflecting tightened export demand across major manufacturing sectors [7][8] - Large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%, while medium and small enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.1%, respectively, indicating varying levels of operational pressure across different enterprise sizes [10] Price Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced positive price changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index both rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [9][11] - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchase price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures and stabilizing sales prices, which is beneficial for profit margins [11] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and services due to holiday effects [14] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector remained high at 56.1%, reflecting strong confidence among service enterprises regarding future development [14]

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased to 50.1%, suggesting stability in the overall economy [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI ended a two-month rising trend, with all 13 sub-indices declining, reflecting pressure on enterprises [4][5]. - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, dropping 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [6]. - The new export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking the second-lowest point this year, primarily due to global economic pressures and uncertainties in international trade [6][7]. - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing maintained expansion, with PMIs of 50.5%, 50.2%, and 50.1% respectively [9][10]. Price Trends - Manufacturing prices showed positive changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since June 2024 [11]. - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index decreased, indicating reduced cost pressures, which could benefit profit margins in the sector [12]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained above 50%, reflecting ongoing expansion, with significant activity in sectors related to consumer travel and holiday spending [14][15]. - The civil engineering construction business activity index rose significantly, indicating a potential acceleration in infrastructure investment activities [16].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth, influenced by pre-holiday demand release and a complex international environment [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a contraction in manufacturing sentiment [3][4]. - The production index for manufacturing dropped to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [8]. - New export orders index decreased to 45.9%, marking a significant contraction in export demand, particularly in equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing [9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Both supply and demand are experiencing a slowdown, with the procurement index falling to 49%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating reduced purchasing activities among manufacturers [8]. - The overall market demand is weak, driven by external uncertainties and seasonal factors, leading to cautious production intentions among manufacturers [9]. Price Trends - Despite the slowdown, there are positive price changes in the manufacturing sector, with the purchasing price index and factory price index in equipment manufacturing rising for three consecutive months [12]. - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a decrease in purchasing price index by 2.5 percentage points, indicating reduced cost pressures, which may benefit profit margins [13]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday effects and increased consumer activity in sectors like transportation and hospitality [16]. - The business activity expectation index remains high at 56.1%, suggesting strong confidence among service sector enterprises regarding future growth [16].

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI in October decreased to 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity after two months of growth [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by holiday effects [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing production index fell to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slight slowdown in production activities [4] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest point of the year, reflecting tightening export demand [5] - The procurement volume index decreased to 49%, down 2.6 percentage points, indicating a contraction in purchasing activities after two months of expansion [5] Business Performance by Company Size - Large enterprises' PMI fell to 49.9%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI decreased to 48.7%, and small enterprises' PMI dropped to 47.1%, indicating pressure across all company sizes [6] - Despite the decline, large enterprises maintained stable supply and demand, while medium and small enterprises faced more significant challenges [6] Price Trends - The manufacturing sector experienced positive price changes, with the equipment manufacturing purchase price index and factory price index rising for three consecutive months [6] - The consumer goods manufacturing purchase price index fell to below 50%, while the factory price index increased, indicating reduced cost pressures and stabilized sales prices [7] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index showed signs of recovery, with significant activity in sectors closely related to consumer travel, such as transportation and hospitality, driven by holiday effects [10] - The business activity expectation index remained high at 56.1%, indicating strong confidence among service sector enterprises regarding future development [10]