发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 塑料2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6602元/吨，最高价6685元/吨，最终收盘于6674元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.17%。持仓量减少14010手至491289手。 现货方面： PE现货市场涨跌互现，涨跌幅在-100至+100元/吨之间，LLDPE报6500-6770元/吨，LDPE报 8650-9110元/吨，HDPE报6750-8340元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 1月9日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在87%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月9 日当周，元旦节后，PE下游开工率环比上升0.06个百分点至41.21%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继 续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应 ...

本报北京1月2日电 （记者欧阳洁）国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会近日发布的 2025年12月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以 下后升至扩张区间，其中，12月制造业生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，较上月上升2.4个百分点，创 2024年4月以来的新高。 （文章来源：人民日报） 制造业结构方面呈现积极变化。高技术制造业扩张势头明显加快，高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，较上月 上升2.4个百分点。消费品行业PMI为50.4%，较上月上升1个百分点，其中生产指数上升至52%以上，新 订单指数上升至51%以上，显示消费品制造业市场供需较好扩张。 同时发布的2025年12月中国非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点。12月综合PMI产 出指数为50.7%，比上月上升1个百分点。 数据显示，12月我国制造业市场需求有所释放，企业生产较好扩张，市场价格向好运行。2025年12月新 订单指数为50.8%，较上月上升1.6个百分点，在连续5个月运行在50%以下后回到扩张区间。12月制造 业出口稳定发展，新出口订单指数为49%，较上 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布数据显示,2025年12月份,制造业采购经理指数 (PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%,比上月上升0.9个、0.7 个和1.0个百分点,三大指数均升至扩张区间,我国经济景气水平总体回升。 制造业产需两端 均较上月明显扩张 数据显示,2025年12月份,制造业PMI为50.1%,4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个 行业PMI较上月回升,相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 "产需两端均明显回升,生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%,比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百分点,特别 是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上,制造业产需两端均较上月明显扩张。"国家统计局服务业 调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧说。 从行业看,农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均高于 53.0%,产需两端加快释放；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点, 相关行业仍面临一定压力。在制造业产需回升带动下,企业采购活动加快,采购量指数为51.1%,升至扩张 区 ...

12 月 31 日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布了中国采购经理指 数。 数据显示， 12 月份，制造业采购经理指数（制造业 PMI ）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 50.1% 、 50.2% 和 50.7% ，比上月上升 0.9 个、 0.7 个和 1.0 个 百分点，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 分析认为，当前市场需求有所恢复，出口趋稳运行，经济政策更加积极。2026年经济运行具 有基础条件。 制造业PMI比上月明显回升 12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以下后升 至扩张区间。 从13个分项指数来看，同上月相比，生产指数、新订单指数、新出口订单指数、积压订单指 数、产成品库存指数、采购量指数、出厂价格指数、原材料库存指数、供应商配送时间指数 和生产经营活动预期指数有所上升，指数升幅在0.1至2.4个百分点之间；进口指数持平；购 进价格指数和从业人员指数略降。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，12月份制造业PMI出现较明显回升，表明市 场预期进一步向好。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首 ...

国家统计局12月31日发布数据显示，12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、0.7个和1.0个百分点，三大指数均升至扩张区 间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 制造业PMI升至临界点以上 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区 间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。12月份，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，升至临界点以上；中 型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平回升；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5个百分 点，景气水平有所回落。 重点行业PMI均高于上月。12月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向 好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分点，双双升至扩张区间。高耗 能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回 ...

来源：国家统计局 12 月份中国采购经理指数均升至扩张区间 ——国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧解读 2025 年 12 月中国采购经理指数 12 月份，制造业 PMI 为 50.1% ， 4 月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的 21 个行业中有 16 个 行业 PMI 较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 （一）产需两端明显回升。 生产指数和新订单指数分别为 51.7% 和 50.8% ，比上月上升 1.7 个和 1.6 个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月明 显扩张。从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和新订 单指数均高于 53.0% ，产需两端加快释放；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两 个指数均低于临界点，相关行业仍面临一定压力。在制造业产需回升的带动下，企业采购活动加 快，采购量指数升至扩张区间，为 51.1% 。 （二）大型企业 PMI 重返扩张区间。 大型企业 PMI 为 50.8% ，比上月上升 1.5 个百分点，升至 临界点以上；中型企业 PMI 为 49.8% ，比上月上升 0.9 个百分 ...

12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。对此，国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽 慧进行了解读： 12月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升0.9个、0.7个和1.0个百 分点，三大指数均升至扩张区间，我国经济景气水平总体回升。 一、制造业采购经理指数升至临界点以上 12月份，制造业PMI为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所 改善。 （一）产需两端明显回升。生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%，比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首 次升至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月明显扩张。从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通信电子设备等行业生产指数和 新订单指数均高于53.0%，产需两端加快释放；非金属矿物制品、黑色金属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点，相关行业仍面临一 定压力。在制造业产需回升的带动下，企业采购活动加快，采购量指数升至扩张区间，为 ...

晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 4 晨会纪要（2025/12/02） 宏观及策略研究 外贸环境趋稳，制造业景气度回升——2025 年 11 月 PMI 数据点评 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、事件： 2025 年 11 月 30 日，统计局公布了 PMI 数据，11 月制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合 PMI 产出指数分别为 49.2%、49.5%和 49.7%。 2、点评： （1）制造业景气水平有所回升，产需两端纷纷改善。具体而言，11 月生产节奏有所 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures. The main contracts of stock index futures were expected to oscillate strongly during the day and attack resistance levels [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Points - On December 1, the main contracts of stock index futures IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable, which would help the short - term upward movement of stock index futures [2]. - IF2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 4550 and 4565 points (4565 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 4511 and 4492 points (4492 points had strong support) [2][8]. - IH2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 2990 and 3000 points (3000 points had relatively strong resistance), with support levels at 2963 and 2952 points (2952 points had strong short - term support) [2][9]. - IC2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7054 and 7112 points (7112 points had relatively strong short - term resistance), with support levels at 6974 and 6925 points (6925 points had strong short - term support) [2][10]. - IM2512 was expected to oscillate strongly during the day, attacking resistance levels of 7322 and 7365 points (7365 points had relatively strong medium - and short - term resistance), with support levels at 7260 and 7211 points (7211 points had strong short - term support) [3][10]. Macroeconomic and Stock Market News - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. China's economic prosperity level was generally stable [2][4]. - From January to October, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 683529.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; the total profit was 34214.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0%. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.4 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - In October, China's exports of goods and services in international payments were 3416 billion US dollars, imports were 2625 billion US dollars, with a surplus of 792 billion US dollars. At the end of June, China's external securities investment assets (excluding reserve assets) were 16942 billion US dollars, including 10763 billion US dollars in equity investment and 6179 billion US dollars in bond investment [4]. - The China National Space Administration had recently established a commercial space department, and related businesses were gradually being carried out, marking that China's commercial space industry had a full - time regulatory agency, which would continue to promote the high - quality development of China's commercial space, and the entire industrial chain was expected to benefit [5]. - The US Secretary of State Rubio said after the new round of US - Ukraine negotiations that the talks with Ukraine were "fruitful", but there was still much work to be done. He also said that Russia would play a central role in any agreement to end the conflict with Ukraine. The US government would strengthen diplomatic efforts in the next week, and the US special envoy for the Middle East, Witkoff, was expected to go to Moscow for further talks [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public opinions on the "Measures for the Implementation of Supervision and Administration Measures in the Securities and Futures Markets (Draft for Comment)". The "Measures" clearly listed 14 commonly used measures such as ordering corrections, regulatory talks, issuing warning letters, and ordering regular reports, and used "other supervision and administration measures stipulated by laws, administrative regulations, and CSRC regulations" as a catch - all provision [7]. - On November 28, China Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of multiple indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to adjust the constituent stocks of indices such as the SSE 50 and STAR 50, and the adjustments would take effect after the market closed on December 12. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it would conduct regular adjustments to the constituent stocks of indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50 on December 15 [7]. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden section line, horizontal line, and moving average, the market trend of the main futures contracts on the day was expected as follows: - On December 1, the main contract IF2512 of the CSI 300 stock index futures opened slightly higher, then encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 4539.4 points, up 0.72%. It failed to break through the 4550 - point resistance, with obvious support at the 4511.2 - point support since September 4. It broke through the 10 - day moving average resistance but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and continued to rise in the short term [7]. - The main contract IH2512 of the SSE 50 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 2973.6 points, up 0.33%. It failed to break through the resistance at the high point of 2986.4 points on November 27, with obvious support at the closing price of 2963.2 points on November 28. It broke through the support and resistance of the 10 - day moving average but failed to break through the 60 - day moving average resistance, and the support of the 5 - day moving average was regained. It continued to rise slightly in the short term, but the upward movement was a bit weak [8]. - The main contract IC2512 of the CSI 500 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7028.2 points, up 0.83%. It failed to break through the resistance at the medium - and short - term low point of 7053.8 points since September 4, with obvious support at the closing price of 6974.2 points on November 28. It failed to effectively break through the 60 - day moving average resistance and continued to rise in the short term [9]. - The main contract IM2512 of the CSI 1000 stock index futures opened slightly higher, first declined and then rose, encountered resistance after rising, and oscillated slightly upward. At the end of the morning session, it closed at 7300.2 points, up 0.70%. It failed to effectively break through the short - term resistance of 7321.6 points since October 9, and the support of the closing price of 7260.8 points on November 28 was regained. It failed to effectively break through the resistance of the 40 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with obvious support from the 60 - day moving average. It continued to rise slightly in the short term [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IF in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 4426 and 4307 points and resistance levels at 4690 and 4741 points [10]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IH in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 2908 and 2872 points and resistance levels at 3030 and 3080 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IC in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6650 and 6565 points and resistance levels at 7395 and 7470 points [11]. - The main contract of the stock index futures IM in December 2025 was expected to oscillate widely, with support levels at 6976 and 6850 points and resistance levels at 7500 and 7600 points [11].

长江商报奔腾新闻记者 李璟 稳增长政策不断落地见效，制造业产需两端均有改善。 国家统计局11月30日发布数据显示，11月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升 0.2个百分点，制造业稳中有升；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点，非制造业 经营活动有所放缓；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平 稳。 中国物流与采购联合会分析认为，11月份制造业PMI指数小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改善。12月 制造业市场需求仍有趋稳回升空间，并带动企业生产活动稳中有增，年末节庆和冬季消费相关需求集中 释放会带动消费相关服务业有所回升，投资有望继续发挥托底经济的作用。此外，"十五五"发展目标鼓 舞人心，对市场信心产生积极影响。要围绕"十五五"良好开局进一步加强宏观经济政策逆周期调节力 度，显著加大政府公共产品、公共服务投资规模，进一步有效有力带动企业订单增加。 其中，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.0%和49.2%，比上月分别上升0.3个和0.4个百分点，其中生 产指数升至临界点，产需两端均有改善。 11月份，非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%。其 ...