宏观数据点评报告 制造业景气度进一步改善，小型企业改善明显 ――2025 年 9 月 PMI 数据点评 | 究 | 分析师： | 宋亦威 | | SAC NO： | | | S1150514080001 | | | 年 2025 9 | 10 | 月 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 事件：2025 年 | 9 | 月 | 30 | 日，统计局公布了 | PMI | 数据，9 | 月制造业采购经理指 | | | | 宋亦威 022-23861608 SAC NO:S1150514080001 songyw@bhzq.com [Table_Author] 严佩佩 022-23839070 SAC NO:S1150520110001 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛芃[Table_IndInvest] 02 ...

研究报告 股指周报 先抑后扬，9 月股指期货市场震荡上行 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 号 证监许可【2012】1087 | | | | | | 金融板块研究员：邓夏羽 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F0246320 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0003212 | | | | | | 电话：13519655433 | | | | | | 邮箱：383566967@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 年 | 月 | 10 | 9 | 日星期四 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 9 月股票市场走出先扬后抑走势，总体呈现震荡上行态势， 三大指数月线均收涨，其中创业板指本月累计涨超 12%创三年 多新高，科创 50 指数涨超 11%创近四年新高。 9 月国内股指期货市场整体震荡上行。IC 走势较强，具体 主力期货合约数据如下： | | 品种 | | 合约代码 | 9 月 | 30 | ...

Economic Overview - In September, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of increase [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stability in the non-manufacturing sector [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index rose to 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight acceleration in overall economic output [1] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing production activities accelerated, with the production index at 51.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the expansion zone for five consecutive months [1] - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stabilization in market demand [1] - The new export orders index was 47.8%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a narrowing decline in export demand [1] New Growth Drivers - In September, the PMIs for equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods were 51.9%, 51.6%, and 50.6% respectively, all significantly above the manufacturing average [2] - Large enterprises showed stable growth with a PMI of 51.0%, while small enterprises improved slightly with a PMI of 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2] - The manufacturing production and business activity expectation index was 54.1%, indicating positive market expectations among manufacturers [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index remained stable at 50%, despite a slight decrease from the previous month [3] - The service sector PMI was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from August, reflecting seasonal trends and the timing of the Mid-Autumn Festival [3][4] - Financial services showed strong performance with a business activity index above 60%, indicating robust support for the real economy [4] Future Outlook - The third quarter average manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [3] - Expectations for the fourth quarter include increased macroeconomic policies to boost market confidence and demand, driven by holiday consumption and infrastructure projects [3][4] - The non-manufacturing sector is expected to stabilize and recover, supported by seasonal effects and ongoing macroeconomic adjustments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份，制造业景气水平继续改善；非制造业业务总量总体稳定；综合PMI 产出指数持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。 制造业景气水平绳发改革 权威数读 / 权威数读 9月份非制造业商务活动指数 50.0% 位于临界点 ITHE ULT SET JUST THE THE -- 权威数读 9月份综合PMI产出指数 50.6% 比上月上升0.1个百分点 re under station in the state of the states a 我国会世纪年公军 T 高端下滑 PC K B S M P S M P S M P S M P S . E | 权威数读 / ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心 中国物流与采购联合会 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。 供应商配送时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 二、中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况 9月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点，非制造业业务总量总体稳定。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点;中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点;小型企业PMI为 48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临 界点。 生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。 新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求 ...

制造业景气水平绳发改革 权威数读 / 制作：缪异星 [ 责编：袁晴 ] 权威数读 9月份非制造业商务活动指数 50.0% 位于临界点 ITHE ULT SET JUST THE THE -- 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份，制造业景气水平继续改善；非制造业业务总量总体稳定；综合PMI 产出指数持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。 策划：令伟家 统筹：曹建礼 ...

9月30日，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会发布的中国采购经理指数显示，9月份制 造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非制造业 商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 9月份中国非制造业商务活动指数为50%，环比下降0.3个百分点，位于临界点。中国物流与采购联合会 副会长何辉认为，9月份，商务活动指数较上月下降，但仍稳定在50%，与去年同期持平，显示非制造 业经营活动保持平稳。 分析指出，生产端和企业采购活动显现恢复迹象，稳增长政策效果正进一步显现。同期，非制造业运行 保持平稳，其中金融业商务活动指数升至60%以上，且好于去年同期，为经济回升提供了有利的金融环 境。不过，分析也指出，市场需求不足仍是当前核心挑战，制造业订单类指数均处于荣枯线以下，同时 建筑业活动偏弱，反映出经济复苏的基础尚需加固。展望四季度，在宏观政策加力，节假日消费、项目 发力及企业乐观预期的共同推动下，宏观经济有望继续向好回升。 制造业PMI连续两个月上升 9月份制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，连续两个月上升。中 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会9月30日发布的数据显示，9月份，制造业景气水平继续改善；非制造业业务总量总体稳 定；综合PMI产出指数持续高于临界点，表明我国企业生产经营活动总体扩张继续加快。 制造业景气水电子线索改 权威数读 / 9月份非制造业商务活动指数 50 09 0 位于临界点 IFME ULL 3 SE FRON 权威数读 / 权威数读 9月份综合PMI产出指数 50.6% 比上月上升0.1个百分点 策划：令伟家 统筹：曹建礼 制作：缪异星 权威数海 ...

国家统计局9月30日发布数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点；非 制造业商务活动指数为50.0%，比上月下降0.3个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，比上月上升0.1个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 生产指数升至近6个月高点 图片来源：国家统计局 从分项指数看，企业生产扩张加快。9月份，生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，升至近6个月高点，制 造业生产活动较为活跃；新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，市场需求景气度有所改善。 小型企业PMI回升。9月份，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，持续高于临界点，保持平稳扩张态 势；中型企业PMI为48.8%，比上月略降0.1个百分点，景气水平基本平稳；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升 1.6个百分点，景气水平有所改善。 9月份，制造业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。 服务业商务活动指数保持扩张 统计数据显示，9月份，服务业商务活动指数为50.1%，继续位于扩张区间。 从行 ...