Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery signals in the Chinese economy post-Spring Festival, with key indicators such as the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index returning to expansion territory, indicating improved economic confidence and activity levels [3][5]. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - In March, the manufacturing new orders index rose to 51.6%, up 3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to expansion after two months below 50% [5]. - The new export orders index improved significantly to 49.1%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points, reflecting better external demand [5]. - The production index for manufacturing rose to 51.4%, up 1.8 percentage points, signaling a steady recovery in production as companies resumed operations post-holiday [5]. - Employment in the equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors showed improvement, with indices rising to near 50%, indicating stabilization in new growth sectors [6]. - The production expectations index for March was 53.4%, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing firms regarding market developments [6]. Price Dynamics and Material Costs - The purchasing volume index rose to 50.9%, indicating expansion in raw material procurement activities, while the purchasing price index surged to 63.9%, reflecting a significant increase in raw material prices [7]. - The ex-factory price index reached 55.4%, marking a new high since April 2022, driven by rising demand and material costs [7]. - The rapid increase in basic raw material prices, with the purchasing price index exceeding 70%, has led to higher costs for downstream manufacturing sectors [8]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has contributed to rising costs in oil and chemical sectors, impacting overall manufacturing costs and potentially affecting production rhythms [9]. Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for March was 50.1%, reflecting a slight increase, with construction and service sectors showing varied performance [11]. - The construction activity index rose to 49.3%, indicating a slight recovery post-Spring Festival, while service-related sectors faced challenges due to rising costs from geopolitical tensions [12]. - The retail, accommodation, and catering sectors experienced a decline in activity levels, suggesting a need for further monitoring of consumer demand recovery [13].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In March 2026, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from February, indicating a return to the expansion zone[2] - The production index accelerated by 1.8 percentage points to 51.4%, while the new orders index surged by 3.0 percentage points to 51.6%[3] - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, with historical data showing an average rebound of 0.9 percentage points in the month following the Spring Festival[3] Group 2: Export and Economic Policy Impact - The new export orders index increased by 4.1 percentage points to 49.1%, contributing significantly to the rise in new orders[4] - The government's macroeconomic policy remains proactive, with infrastructure investment growth significantly accelerating, supporting the improvement in manufacturing sentiment[4] - Despite the positive trends, uncertainties from the Middle East and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector may negatively impact domestic manufacturing operations[5] Group 3: Price Indices and Future Outlook - The ex-factory price index rose by 4.8 percentage points to 55.4%, while the main raw material purchase price index surged by 9.1 percentage points to 63.9%[5] - The manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to around 49.8% in April, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, following the typical seasonal pattern[7] - The ongoing Middle East situation and its impact on global economic conditions may further influence domestic manufacturing and export resilience[8]

Group 1: Hot News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will open at 9:00 am on March 5, with Premier Li Qiang delivering the Government Work Report, and close on the afternoon of March 12, lasting 8 days with 3 plenary sessions and 11 agendas [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points month - on - month; non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - US President Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. The nomination process will proceed to a Senate Banking Committee hearing, but Senator Tillis may block it [2] - Iraq is shutting down production at its largest oil field and may cut production by about 3 million barrels per day if the Hormuz crisis persists [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading margin and daily price limit of methanol futures contracts [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, platinum, crude oil, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of different commodity sectors: non - metallic building materials 2.00%, precious metals 31.19%, oilseeds and oils 7.65%, non - ferrous metals 26.48%, soft commodities 2.69%, coal, coke, and steel minerals 9.55%, energy 5.23%, chemicals 11.40%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.71% [4] Group 4: Position Changes - The figure shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Performance of different asset classes including equities, fixed - income, commodities, and others, with details of daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [6] Group 6: Trends of Major Commodities - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., as well as relevant ratios and risk premiums [7]

Group 1: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) - In February, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in economic activity [2][3] - Both production index and new orders index fell to 49.6% and 48.6% respectively, showing a slowdown in production and market demand [3] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 51.5%, while small and medium-sized enterprises faced significant impacts from the Spring Festival, with PMIs of 47.5% and 44.8% respectively [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose slightly to 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an overall improvement in the non-manufacturing sector [6] - The service sector's business activity index increased to 49.7%, driven by growth in travel-related industries, with hospitality and entertainment sectors showing indices above 60.0% [6] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 48.2%, reflecting a decline due to the Spring Festival, although the market expectation index for construction improved to 50.9% [6] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Output Index - The comprehensive PMI output index decreased to 49.5%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general slowdown in production and business activities [7] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were recorded at 49.6% and 49.5% respectively, contributing to the overall decline in the comprehensive PMI [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market indices rose on February 20, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 230.81 points to close at 49,625.97, a gain of 0.47% [1] - The S&P 500 index rose by 47.62 points to close at 6,909.51, reflecting a 0.69% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 203.34 points, closing at 22,886.07, a rise of 0.90% [1] - The S&P 500 saw nine sectors increase, with the communication services and consumer discretionary sectors leading gains at 2.65% and 1.27%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose large-scale tariffs, alleviating market concerns regarding tariff policies [1] - President Trump announced plans to sign an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on imported goods globally, replacing previously invalidated emergency tariffs [1] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a preliminary economic growth rate of 1.4% for Q4 2025, significantly below market expectations, with the overall growth rate for 2025 at 2.2%, the lowest since 2021 [2] - The personal consumption expenditures price index for December 2025 rose by 0.4% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, indicating inflationary pressures [2] Group 4 - The S&P Global reported a composite PMI output index of 52.3 for February, down from 53 in January, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for February was reported at 56.6, slightly down from the initial estimate but higher than the previous month's 56.4 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell below the荣枯 line again, and the non - manufacturing PMI also declined, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities. The 2026 consumption support policy may weaken, and investment in infrastructure and real estate may continue to drag down the economy. The resilience of foreign trade growth in 2026 needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and the support from new productive forces. The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2][105]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro News - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8pct to 49.3%, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4% (down 0.8pct), and the composite PMI output index was 49.8% (down 0.9pct), all slightly below the荣枯 line. The decline in manufacturing PMI was due to low - temperature weather, holiday effects, pre - exhausted demand, and the pressure on small and medium - sized enterprises [2][19]. - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan (down 1.7%), and the expenditure was 28.7 trillion yuan (up 1%). Tax revenue was 17.6 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), and non - tax revenue was 4.0 trillion yuan (down 11.3%) [4][26]. - In 2025, large - scale industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 7.4 trillion yuan (up 0.6%) and an operating income of 139.20 trillion yuan (up 1.1%), with an operating income profit margin of 5.31% (down 0.03pct) [4][30]. - In January 2026, the Fed decided not to cut interest rates, maintaining the rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman [4][33]. 3.2 Medium - term High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of January 18, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars were 5.0 million units (down 22.0% year - on - year), and the daily average wholesale sales were 5.1 million units (down 28.0% year - on - year). As of January 30, the 7 - day national movie box office revenue was 30771.3 million yuan (down 90.9% year - on - year). As of January 16, the total retail sales of three major home appliances were 107.6 million units (down 36.3% year - on - year), and the total retail sales were 24.7 billion yuan (down 32.6% year - on - year) [34][38]. 3.2.2 Transportation - As of January 31, the 7 - day average migration scale index was 488.4 (down 24.8% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly civil aviation flight volume was 12.4 million flights (down 7.5% year - on - year). As of January 30, the 7 - day average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities was 3938.6 million person - times (up 95.9% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 43.1 billion pieces (up 52.7% year - on - year), the delivery volume was 42.3 billion pieces (up 12.2% year - on - year), the railway freight volume was 7441.9 million tons (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the highway truck traffic volume was 5425.2 million vehicles (up 38.4% year - on - year) [41][47]. 3.2.3 Industry - As of January 30, the iron ore inventory was 17758.3 million tons (up 11.0% year - on - year), the rebar inventory was 326.4 million tons (down 27.5% year - on - year), and the float glass enterprise inventory was 5256.4 million tons (down 12.6% year - on - year). As of January 22, the daily coal consumption of key power plants was 617.0 million tons (up 8.2% year - on - year). As of January 30, the apparent steel consumption was 801.7 million tons (up 63.7% year - on - year), the apparent rebar consumption was 176.4 million tons (up 34.1% year - on - year), and the apparent wire rod consumption was 74.6 million tons (up 22.0% year - on - year). As of January 28, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises was 73.8% (down 1.5pct year - on - year). As of January 29, the average asphalt operating rate was 20.0% (up 2.0pct year - on - year), the soda ash operating rate was 84.9% (down 2.2pct year - on - year), and the PVC operating rate was 77.0% (down 3.9pct year - on - year) [50][52][61]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of January 30, the 7 - day total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 161.0 million square meters (up 129.4% year - on - year). As of January 23, the weekly second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities was 180.5 million square meters (down 7.8% year - on - year). As of January 25, the weekly land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 779.3 million square meters (down 51.7% year - on - year), and the total land transaction price was 127.4 billion yuan (down 73.2% year - on - year) [63][66][69]. 3.2.5 Prices - As of February 1, the average pork wholesale price was 18.6 yuan/kg (down 10.3% year - on - year, up 4.0% from 4 weeks ago). As of January 30, the average vegetable wholesale price was 5.6 yuan/kg (up 1.4% year - on - year, down 1.2% from 4 weeks ago), the average price of 6 key fruits was 7.9 yuan/kg (up 5.9% year - on - year, up 0.4% from 4 weeks ago), the average price of thermal coal at northern ports was 691.0 yuan/ton (down 9.4% year - on - year, up 0.1% from 4 weeks ago), the average WTI crude oil spot price was 62.5 US dollars/barrel (down 16.2% year - on - year, up 8.3% from 4 weeks ago), the average rebar spot price was 3202.3 yuan/ton (down 3.7% year - on - year, down 0.9% from 4 weeks ago), the average iron ore spot price was 812.8 yuan/ton (down 0.9% year - on - year, down 0.3% from 4 weeks ago), and the average glass spot price was 13.1 yuan/square meter (down 20.1% year - on - year, up 1.8% from 4 weeks ago) [74][79]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On January 30, overnight Shibor was 1.33%, R001 was 1.51%, R007 was 1.64%, DR001 was 1.33%, DR007 was 1.59%, IBO001 was 1.35%, IBO007 was 1.61%. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.30%/1.58%/1.81%/2.29%, and the yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year policy financial bonds were 1.58%/1.80%/1.99%/2.42%. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.36%/1.72%/1.99%. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.50%/1.60%/1.52%/1.63%. The 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.26%, 2.25%, 4.53%, and 2.92% respectively. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 6.97/6.95 [85][86][93]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since 2026, the duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has decreased overall. On January 30, the estimated median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds was about 3.1 years (down about 0.1 year from January 16), and the estimated median duration of credit bond funds was about 1.7 years (down about 0.6 year from January 16) [4][98][102]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - The bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected. The 10 - year treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9%. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities of ultra - long bonds, allocate 3 - 5Y capital bonds for coupon income, and pay attention to multi - asset investment opportunities [4][105].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - January Manufacturing PMI in China is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a shift from expansion to contraction[2] - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.5 percentage points; medium enterprises at 48.7%, down 1.1 percentage points; and small enterprises at 47.4%, down 1.2 percentage points, showing a divergence in performance[2] - The production index is at 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, remaining above 50% for two consecutive months[7] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index is at 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, while new export orders are at 47.8%, down 1.2 percentage points, indicating weak demand[2] - The import index is at 47.3%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting a slight recovery in imports[2] - The inventory-sales ratio is 1.08, up from 1.05 in December, indicating a slowdown in destocking[3] Group 3: Price and Profitability Indicators - The factory price index is at 50.6%, up 1.7 percentage points, indicating a return to expansion territory[3] - The main raw material purchase price index is at 56.1%, up 3 percentage points, indicating rising input costs[3] - Profitability index is at -5.5%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating that factory prices are not keeping pace with raw material costs, leading to declining profit levels[19] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - January Non-Manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, marking a new low for 2023[4] - The services sector PMI is at 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, while the construction sector PMI is at 48.8%, down 4 percentage points, indicating significant contraction[4] Group 5: Employment and Logistics - Employment index is at 48.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a contraction in employment conditions[21] - Supplier delivery time index is at 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points, but still above the neutral mark, indicating faster delivery times[21]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2][3] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium enterprises show lower PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in sentiment [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, signaling a decrease in overall non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with significant activity in financial services, while the real estate sector's index dropped below 40.0%, indicating weak sentiment [4] - The construction sector's business activity index decreased to 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday, with a cautious outlook reflected in the business activity expectations index dropping below the critical point [4] Group 3: Comprehensive PMI Insights - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall production and business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the comprehensive PMI output index [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decrease in economic activity [1] - The production index stood at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a drop in market demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in related industries [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general decline in the sector's economic performance [4] - The financial services sector showed strong performance with a business activity index exceeding 65%, providing a favorable financing environment for growth [4] - The service sector's business activity expectation index rose to over 57%, indicating optimism regarding the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on service-related consumption [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that while manufacturing activity may slow down in February due to the Spring Festival, there are signs of stabilizing market demand and ongoing expansion in production activities [3] - The construction industry is expected to rebound post-Spring Festival, driven by policy guidance and market demand, which may enhance overall economic conditions [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was reported at 49.3%, indicating a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The production index stood at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand [2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.0%, remaining above 52.0% for two consecutive months, indicating a positive development trend in related industries [2] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, indicating sustained expansion and a strong supporting role in the manufacturing sector [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was reported at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in overall non-manufacturing sentiment [4] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 65%, showing a significant increase compared to the same period last year, providing a favorable financing environment for growth [4] - The service sector's business activity expectation index rose to over 57%, indicating optimism among enterprises regarding the impact of the upcoming Spring Festival on service sector demand [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the market demand issue is gradually easing, with a decrease in the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient demand, down 9.4 percentage points to 54.9% [2] - The manufacturing production and operational activity expectation index was at 52.6%, indicating confidence in future manufacturing activities [3] - Post-Spring Festival, it is anticipated that investment-related demand will be released, potentially boosting the construction sector's sentiment [5]