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建信期货生猪日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:47
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight of enterprises continues to support the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. The current futures contract is at a discount to the spot, and it is still regarded as a rebound, which may be affected by the off - season demand and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 26th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and fluctuated higher, closing up. The highest was 14,080 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,990 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,040 yuan/ton, up 0.43% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 996 lots to 165,608 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 26th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.56 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the slaughter rate and volume remained low. On June 26, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 142,100 heads, 1,100 less than the previous day and 4,700 less than a week ago [9] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises were reducing the volume and weight of slaughter, the volume of large pigs decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased slightly [9] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 8.57% [10] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.32% and a year - on - year increase of 14.3% [19] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [19] - As of the week of June 19, the average slaughter weight nationwide was 128.28 kg, a decrease of 0.54 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42% [19] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. In the week of June 19, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 - yuan/jin increase from the previous week [19]
建信期货生猪日报-20250625
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:20
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy stabilizes pig prices and boosts confidence, and the phased reduction in volume and weight by enterprises supports the rebound of spot and futures prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply is expected to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - peak season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Futures are currently in a rebound situation, but are still affected by the off - peak demand season and loose supply - demand in the medium to long term [10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the 24th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,060 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,905 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,940 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decline from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,338 lots to 165,425 lots. The national average price of foreign three - way pigs was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.05 yuan/kg increase from the previous day [9] - **Market Analysis**: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained low, the utilization rate of pigsties increased slightly, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment was low, only a small amount entered the market, mostly in a wait - and - see state, and the support for prices weakened. With rising temperatures, terminal demand weakened, slaughter enterprise orders were average, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughter enterprises remained low. On the supply side, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May, and the slaughter volume continued to increase month - on - month. Currently, enterprises are reducing volume and weight in a phased manner, the slaughter volume of large pigs has declined, and the slaughter weight has decreased slightly [10] 2. Industry News - As of May this year, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms was 1.147 million heads, a 0.92% month - on - month increase and an 8.57% year - on - year increase [11] 3. Data Overview - As of May, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises was 2.315 million heads, a 1.32% month - on - month increase and a 14.3% year - on - year increase [20] - In early June, the average proportion of secondary fattening sales was 0.75%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from the previous ten - day period [20] - As of the week of June 19, the average national slaughter weight was 128.28 kg, a 0.54 - kg decrease from the previous week, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease [20] - In early June, the utilization rate of fattening pigsties was 38.5%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from the previous ten - day period. The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of June 19 was 0.07 yuan/jin, a 0.01 yuan/jin increase from the previous week [20]
建信期货生猪日报-20250507
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 00:48
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: May 07, 2025 - Industry: Pig Industry Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs tends to increase, demand weakens, and the spot price is mainly weak. Futures contracts are at a discount to the spot and are mainly volatile and weak [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 6th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rebounded and fluctuated higher, closing up 0.32% at 13,960 yuan/ton. The total open interest of the index increased by 1,640 lots to 146,158 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 6th, the national average price of foreign三元 was 14.81 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Demand Side**: The current fattening cost is low and the breeding profit is good, but the pen utilization rate is relatively high. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment is average, and it is mainly sporadic and continuous entry. After the festival, the terminal demand weakened, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises declined [7] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned sales volume in May is 23.65 million heads, a 1.98% increase from the actual slaughter volume in April. The post - festival slaughter of the breeding side is average, and the slaughter weight has increased slightly [7] 2. Industry News - From April 26 - 30, the weekly slaughter volume of the sample was 1.3223 million heads; the daily average slaughter volume of the sample was 147,408 heads, an increase of 7,798 heads from the previous week, with a daily average increase of 5.59% [10] - From April 26 - 30, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 649 yuan/head, the same as the previous week [10] 3. Data Overview - As of April 30, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 191 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 21.5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was 119 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/head [19] - From April 26 - 30, the average national slaughter weight was 129.22 kg, an increase of 0.28 kg from the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.69% [19]