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建信期货生猪日报-20260212
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 01:12
行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 02 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,11 日生猪主力 2605 合约小幅低开后震荡走高,尾盘收阳,最高 11590 元/吨,最低 11405 元/吨,收盘报 11555 元/吨,较昨日涨 0.30%, ...
建信期货生猪日报-20260211
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-11 00:51
行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 02 月 11 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:全国生猪出栏价 元/公斤 图2:样本屠宰场屠宰量 头 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,10 日生猪主力 2605 合约小幅低开 ...
建信期货生猪日报-20260204
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-04 01:06
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: February 4, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 3rd, the main pig contract 2605 opened slightly lower, then冲高回落 and closed in the negative. The highest price was 11,685 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,565 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,017 lots to 339,037 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 3rd, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.56 yuan/kg, up 0.25 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - Supply: Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the Spring Festival. In February, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises may decline month - on - month. In the first ten days, the enthusiasm of breeders to sell pigs has increased and the rhythm has accelerated. The slaughter volume will be significantly released around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month [7]. - Demand: The spot price has rebounded to a high level and the Spring Festival is approaching, so second - fattening is mainly on the sidelines. Terminal consumer demand is average. Schools are on holiday one after another, group meals and other consumption may decrease, and the sales of white - striped pigs are poor. In the short term, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. The last wave of demand peak will be during the Spring Festival stocking period around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month in early February. On February 3rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,000 heads, a decrease of 500 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 heads, and a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 heads [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, both supply and demand will increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will fluctuate. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. There are still some fattened pigs from second - fattening to be sold after the Spring Festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. At the same time, it will enter the consumption off - season after the Spring Festival, and the support for the market is insufficient. Contracts 03/05 will be mainly weak in shock [7]. Group 3: Industry News - As of the end of January, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising in the future was 12.18 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 0.82 yuan/kg compared with 13 yuan/kg. The cost of raising pigs with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of raising purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.79 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.36 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1 yuan/kg compared with 14.9 yuan/kg [8][10] Group 4: Data Overview - As of January 30, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 46 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/head; the profit of raising pigs with purchased piglets was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 221 yuan/head [12]. - As of January 20, the utilization rate of fattening pens was 37.7%, a ten - day increase of 3.8 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 7.7 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 24 percentage points [12]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in January was 407.8 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 103 yuan/head and a month - on - month increase of 33.8% [12]. - The average slaughter weight of pigs in the country in January was 128.6 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 kg (a decrease of 0.9%) and a year - on - year increase of 4.9 kg (a year - on - year increase of 3.96%) [12]. - In 2025, 719.73 million pigs were slaughtered, a year - on - year increase of 17.16 million heads (an increase of 2.4%). Among them, the number of pigs slaughtered in the four quarters was 194.76 million, 171.43 million, 163.73 million, and 189.81 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0.1%, 1.2%, 4.7%, and 4.1% respectively. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32 million tons (an increase of 4.1%), and the output reached a record high. Among them, the pork output in the four quarters was 16.02 million, 14.18 million, 13.48 million, and 15.70 million tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 1.2%, 1.4%, 7.1%, and 5.2% respectively [12]
国信期货生猪周报:需求不及预期,生猪期现同跌-20260130
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 09:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Past week, both live hog spot and futures prices declined. The national average spot price dropped by 0.67 yuan to 12.21 yuan/kg, with the southern region being particularly weak. The main futures contract LH2603 fell 2.98% to 11,220 yuan/ton, and the commodity curve's positive structure steepened. The near - end reflects post - holiday off - season pressure, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction and relatively resistant to decline [7]. - Based on previous piglet birth data and hog feed production and sales, the theoretical standard hog slaughter volume in China will remain high until the second quarter. The de - capacity speed of breeding sows in the fourth quarter of last year did not meet the policy control target, and attention should be paid to whether new policy guidance will be introduced [7]. - In the short term, the peak - season demand before the Spring Festival started slowly, and the inventory of live hogs from secondary fattening and pressure - barring was high. As the peak - season window before the Spring Festival shortens, large - weight hogs may be difficult to clear, which means there will still be some digestion pressure after the Spring Festival, which is unfavorable for near - end contracts. After continuous declines, the far - end contracts' valuation has reached an appropriate level, and the further downside space may be limited. The near - end should be treated as oscillating weakly, and long - term buying on dips is recommended for the far - end [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - Live hog spot prices fell last week, and futures also declined. The near - end contracts are under pressure due to post - holiday off - season and inventory issues, while the far - end is supported by capacity reduction. The theoretical hog slaughter volume will be high in the second quarter, and the de - capacity of breeding sows did not meet the target. Near - end contracts should be treated as oscillating weakly, and far - end contracts can be bought on dips [7]. 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not initiated when a level - three early warning is issued, may be initiated at the discretion when a level - two early warning is issued, and are initiated when a level - one early warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increases, in the case of market cyclical fluctuations, reserve releases are initiated when a level - two early warning is issued and the release intensity is increased when a level - one early warning is issued. In case of special situations such as major animal epidemic risks, the price increase tolerance is increased, and releases are mainly organized during key periods after a level - one early warning is issued. Provinces can determine their own reserve release initiation conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release initiation conditions [65].
建信期货生猪日报-20260127
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-27 01:41
1. Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 27, 2026 [2] 2. Core View - On the supply side, until April, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase. Second - round fattening pen utilization is currently higher year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered before the Spring Festival. The planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the current slaughter rhythm is slightly slow. On the demand side, as the spot price rebounds to a high and the Spring Festival approaches, second - round fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Terminal consumer demand is average, and the consumption of group meals may decrease. The sales of white - striped pigs are poor, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased. Overall, the spot market is mainly in a shock state, and the 03/05 futures contracts are mainly in a weak shock state [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: On the 26th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and fluctuated downward, closing with a negative line. The highest was 11,530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,440 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,465 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,258 lots to 345,665 lots [8]. - **Spot**: On the 26th, the national average price of external ternary pigs was 12.93 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of January 23, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.15 yuan/kg, flat week - on - week. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost of fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4 yuan/kg week - on - week [10][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Profit**: As of January 23, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 73 yuan/head, an increase of 47.7 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 38.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.8 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - **Slaughter weight**: In the week of January 22, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.89 kg, an increase of 0.04 kg from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.03%, a decrease of 0.81 kg from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%, and an increase of 7.38 kg from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 6.07% [13]. - **Price difference**: In the week of January 22, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.64 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.16 yuan/jin week - on - week [13]. - **Fattening cost**: The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 12.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.92 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Annual data**: In 2025, the number of pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million year - on - year, a growth of 2.4%. The pork output was 59.38 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons year - on - year, a growth of 4.1%, reaching a record high [13].
建信期货生猪日报-20260121
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, consumption is increasing, supply is relatively abundant, and the spot price will fluctuate. On the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, the pressure of second - fattening is still relatively high compared to the same period, the current epidemic situation is sporadic seasonally without continuous spread, and after the Spring Festival, it enters the off - season of consumption, so the 03 contract will mainly fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,745 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,530 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53% compared to the previous day. The total position of the index decreased by 12,586 lots to 344,360 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 13.20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side**: Before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment increased periodically. Currently, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is higher than the same period last year, and there are still pigs to be slaughtered. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. Currently, the slaughter in the north is normal, while in the south, the quantity is controlled to raise prices, and the overall slaughter weight has not changed much [7]. - **Demand - side**: Second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. The demand for curing and enema is near the end, the terminal consumer consumption has increased slightly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On January 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 186,600 heads, a decrease of 5,000 heads compared to the previous day, flat week - on - week, and a decrease of 19,000 heads month - on - month [7]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 15th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 425 yuan/head, an increase of 62 yuan/head compared to the previous week [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Cost and Profit**: As of January 15th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The cost of fattening with externally purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening externally purchased piglets to 125kg and then slaughtering was 12.24 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.49 yuan/kg. As of January 15th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was +25.8 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.8 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with externally purchased piglets was - 100.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 29.3 yuan/head [16]. - **Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 15th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.85kg, an increase of 0.31kg compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a decrease of 1.33kg compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and an increase of 5.89kg compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 4.79% [16].
建信期货生猪日报-20260116
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-16 01:10
Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Pig Futures [1] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On January 15, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat, then rose, fell back, and fluctuated down. It closed with a negative line in the late session. The highest price was 12,160 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,915 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,950 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 4,636 lots to 359,189 lots [6] Spot Market - On January 15, the average price of ternary pigs in the whole country was 12.74 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] Supply Side - Before the New Year's Day, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased periodically. Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is higher than the same period last year. According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in January decreased by 3.1% month-on-month. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is slightly slow, and the slaughter weight has little change [7] Demand Side - Secondary fattening is mainly on the sidelines. The demand for curing and enema is near the end. The terminal consumer consumption has returned to the pre-holiday level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On January 15, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 185,900 heads, down 1,000 heads from the previous day, 3,700 heads week-on-week, and 5,300 heads month-on-month [7] Overall Situation - In the spot market, the consumption peak has passed, the supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates mainly. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. The pressure of secondary fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market. However, the epidemic in the north was more serious than the same period last year, which boosted the 03 contract. At present, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has no sign of continued spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally. The progress of the epidemic should be continuously tracked [7] Group 3: Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8, the average selling price of 15kg piglets in the market was 366 yuan/head, up 45 yuan/head from the previous week [8] Group 4: Data Overview Breeding Profit - As of January 8, the average profit and loss per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was basically balanced, up 28 yuan/head week-on-week. The average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was -129.8 yuan/head, up 31 yuan/head week-on-week [16] Slaughter Weight - As of the week of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.54kg, down 0.12kg from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [16]
建信期货生猪日报-20260114
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-14 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening before the New Year increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens rose slightly. In January, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and currently, the breeding end is in normal slaughter mode [7]. - On the demand side, after the spot price increase, second - round fattening has decreased and is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, with weak replenishment demand. The demand for curing and sausage - making is near the end, terminal consumer consumption has returned to the pre - holiday level, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the holiday. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have decreased slightly. On January 13, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 186,600 heads, a decrease of 2,200 heads from the previous day, 3,000 heads week - on - week, and 5,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall, for the spot market, the consumption peak has passed, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price will be mainly volatile. For the futures market, pig supply is expected to continue to increase slightly, the pressure of second - round fattening is still relatively high compared to the same period last year, which continues to exert downward pressure. However, the more severe epidemic in the north in the early stage boosted the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic does not continue to spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally. Be vigilant against the risk of price decline and continuously monitor the progress of the epidemic [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line at the end of the session. The highest price was 11,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,730 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 10,254 lots to 355,333 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.75 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Yongyi Consulting data, in the week of January 8, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, an increase of 45 yuan/head from the previous week [8][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - As of January 8, the average profit and loss per self - bred and self - raised pig was basically balanced, an increase of 28 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig from purchasing piglets was - 129.8 yuan/head, an increase of 31 yuan/head week - on - week [19]. - In the week of January 8, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.54kg, a decrease of 0.12kg from the previous week, with a week - on - week decline of 0.09% [19].
建信期货生猪日报-20260107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:12
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the spot market, post - holiday consumption has declined but remains at a relatively high level, supply is relatively loose, and spot prices will fluctuate. On the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly, demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, second - fattening pressure on the market is still high year - on - year, but the previous more severe northern epidemic in the same period continues to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and only occurs sporadically seasonally, and the progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 6th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 11,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,620 yuan/ton, and it closed at 11,810 yuan/ton, up 0.98% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 3,030 lots to 354,652 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 6th, the national average price of ternary pigs was 12.48 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [6] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment before the festival has increased periodically, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased slightly. The slaughter of breeding enterprises in January may continue to increase slightly month - on - month, and currently, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable [7] - **Demand Side**: Currently, second - fattening has increased, with rolling replenishment demand. Post - holiday consumption has declined, but there is still room for cured meat and sausage - making demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains at a high level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have declined after the holiday, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have returned to pre - holiday levels. On January 6, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 189,800 heads, an increase of 11,000 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 13,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 10,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information data, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. The current epidemic is sporadically occurring seasonally, so the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread [8] 3. Data Overview - In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week [17] - As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig raised with purchased piglets was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week [17] - As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66 kg, a decrease of 1.04 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%) [17]
建信期货生猪日报-20251230
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-12-30 01:51
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On the spot market, both supply and demand are increasing. New Year's Day stocking and the potential growth of curing and sausage - making in some regions support the increase in slaughter volume, and the spot price is mainly fluctuating strongly [9] - In the futures market, pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Although demand elasticity is strong before the Spring Festival, the dual supply pressure from concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release continues to put pressure on contracts 01 and 03. However, compared with the same period last year, the price decline is significant, and the more severe epidemic in the north is relatively beneficial to contract 03 after the festival, with the price mainly fluctuating and rebounding. The progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened higher and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the negative territory. The highest was 11,830 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,670 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,715 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 883 lots to 356,236 lots [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 29th, the national average price of三元 pigs was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In October, second - fattening and weight - holding were concentrated, and the digestion speed of large pigs was relatively fast during the previous consumption peak. The number of second - fattening pens has been continuously decreasing. According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample breeding enterprises in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is normal [9] - **Demand Side**: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with a small amount of rolling replenishment demand. There is still an increase in demand for New Year's Day stocking, curing, and sausage - making. Terminal consumer demand continues to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises remain high. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 29th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 201,000 heads, a decrease of 16,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 26,000 heads [9] 2. Industry News - Not provided in the report 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter Volume**: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [16] - **Small - Weight Pig Slaughter Proportion**: In the week of December 25th, the overall slaughter proportion of pigs weighing less than 90 kg was 5.51%, a decrease of 0.13% from the previous week [16] - **Breeding Profit and Cost**: As of December 25th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 124.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7 yuan/head; the average profit per pig raised from purchased piglets was - 255.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 17 yuan/head. The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 12.09 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling was 11.42 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/kg [16] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of December 25th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.70 kg, a decrease of 0.48 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.37%), an increase of 0.48 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month increase of 0.37%), and an increase of 1.94 kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.52%) [16]