Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national live pig market shows a stable and narrow - adjustment pattern. The national average price remains at 9.42 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. There are obvious regional price differences, with high prices in Guangdong remaining stable and low prices in Guizhou rebounding slightly. The slaughter end reports that the supply of live pigs in the market is generally sufficient, and enterprise procurement is smooth. Most areas' slaughter volume only shows a narrow - range change. It is expected that the pig price will continue to be mainly in a state of waiting or narrow - range adjustment in the short term. The piglet market is the focus today, with prices generally falling to 180 - 220 yuan/head, but the transactions are light, and the enthusiasm of the breeding end for replenishment is generally weak. Overall, the market supply is sufficient while the demand is flat, and the short - term market lacks the impetus for significant fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 12915, 12565, 9770, 10730, 11810, and 12180 respectively. Compared with two days ago, the price changes were - 250, - 380, - 235, - 335, - 465, and - 465, with corresponding percentage changes of - 1.90%, - 2.94%, - 2.35%, - 3.03%, - 3.79%, and - 3.68% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 12424, 3247, 188706, 73300, 66455, and 20257 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests for January, March, May, July, September, and November contracts were 31875, 5436, 187160, 97774, 92625, and 49997 respectively, with changes of 2605, 1120, - 2159, 6755, 8910, and 1714 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January are 350, 2795, - 960, - 1080, - 370, and - 735 respectively, compared with previous values of 220, 2940, - 1060, - 1210, - 370, and - 520 [2] Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning are 9.53, 9.31, 9.32, 10.05, 9.32, and 9.31 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, the price changes are - 0.01, - 18.57, 0, 0, - 0.02, and - 0.03 [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts the day before was 0, with a decrease of 441 compared with two days ago [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs in the futures market opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 10,030 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,770 yuan/ton, a 2.30% drop from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots. The average price of ternary pigs in the spot market was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - On the supply side, the monthly slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume of the breeding sector in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained at a high level, so the supply pressure remained high, and the overall supply level was still loose. On the demand side, as the price dropped to a low level and the price difference between fat and lean pigs remained advantageous, secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. Currently, the terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. Overall, in the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, with sufficient production capacity, the supply of live pigs was expected to increase slightly, and secondary fattening was constantly entering the market in small quantities. Meanwhile, it was the off - season for consumption, which provided weak support for the market. Hedging funds continued to enter the market, so the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak. Attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures: On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing at 9,770 yuan/ton, down 2.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots [8]. - Spot: On March 31, the national average price of ternary pigs was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - Supply: At the end of the month, the slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained high, so the supply pressure was still high [9]. - Demand: The price dropped to a low level, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. The terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. On March 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 159,900 heads, an increase of 2,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 34,000 heads [9]. - Outlook: In the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3.2行业要闻 - As of March 19, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg [10]. 3.3数据概览 - As of March 19, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was - 292 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 15.6 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 189 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.62 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [20]. - In the week of March 19, the cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.17 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 10.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The feed price and pig price did not change significantly, the purchase cost was stable, and the secondary fattening cost did not change much [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of live pigs across the country are oscillating, and the downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has generally improved. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on future pig出栏量 may be better than before. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers has changed little and remains at a relatively low level, and future出栏量 may increase. Secondary fattening has shown some signs of entry, but the market is still cautious. The supply - side pressure is still obvious, and the short - term supply and demand in the live pig market are still relatively loose. The downward pressure on live pig futures prices has shifted to the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts show obvious support. In the short term, futures prices may stabilize. If the spot price stabilizes, secondary fattening may drive the spot price up again, and futures may be supported. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still significant, and the overall price is expected to decline [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Information - Today, live pig prices across the country are oscillating, and the downward pressure on pig prices in various regions has generally improved. The overall出栏量 of large - scale enterprises has decreased, and the pressure on future pig出栏量 may be better than before. The出栏量 of ordinary farmers has changed little and remains at a relatively low level, and future出栏量 may increase. Secondary fattening has shown some signs of entry, but the market is still cautious. The出栏 weight of live pigs remains at a relatively high level, and the supply - side pressure is still obvious [1] Futures Information - The downward pressure on live pig futures prices has shifted to the far - month contracts, and the near - month contracts show obvious support. The decline has narrowed. In the short term, futures prices may stabilize. If the spot price stabilizes, secondary fattening may drive the spot price up again, and futures may be supported. In the long - term, the supply - side pressure is still significant, and the overall price is expected to decline [3] Transaction Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to take a bearish view on the 07 contract. Arbitrage: LH79 reverse spread. Options: Near - month short straddle strategy [4]

Group 1: Report Core View - The weight reduction of live pigs fails to meet expectations, and the price center will move down again [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the live pig market, with the range of trend strength being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan spot price is 9,430 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong spot price is 10,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; Live pig 2605 futures price is 9,965 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton; Live pig 2607 futures price is 11,180 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; Live pig 2609 futures price is 12,520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2605 is 209,062 lots, an increase of 33,050 lots from the previous day, with an open interest of 202,586 lots, a decrease of 16,816 lots; The trading volume of live pig 2607 is 63,757 lots, an increase of 19,057 lots, with an open interest of 88,401 lots, an increase of 4,219 lots; The trading volume of live pig 2609 is 29,355 lots, an increase of 1,729 lots, with an open interest of 80,672 lots, an increase of 3,524 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of live pig 2605 is -535 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton; The basis of live pig 2607 is -1,750 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; The basis of live pig 2609 is -3,090 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton; The spread between live pig 2605 and 2607 is -1,215 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; The spread between live pig 2607 and 2609 is -1,340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating [1][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market is in a bottom - oscillating state, waiting for a reversal. The supply side has a confirmed inventory - accumulation pattern, and the spot price is in the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and de - stocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom. The investment view is neutral, and the trading strategy is to wait and see for both single - side and arbitrage trades [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. In February, the progress of pig slaughter was slow, and the supply was postponed again. Group enterprises' slaughter returned to normal, the social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing increased, and the secondary fattening and speculative demand accelerated to enter the market, confirming the inventory - accumulation pattern [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The Spring Festival peak season has passed, and the off - season demand has dropped significantly. The speculative demand in January was advanced, and the negative feedback of the peak - season increment falling short of expectations emerged. The speculative demands such as secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing over - consumed the subsequent demand, and the market has a strong expectation of subsequent demand vacuum [3] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive segmentation and warehousing increased, and the post - festival pig weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The national average spot price of outer ternary pigs is about 10,130 yuan/ton (10.13 yuan/kg in Henan). The closing price of the LH2605 contract is 11,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 970 yuan/ton (weakening month - on - month, and the discount range is expanding) [3] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Pig - raising enterprises are still in a loss state, and the pig - grain ratio is still lower than the break - even point. The spot price is running weakly, and the loss may continue [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. Currently, the price of the LH2605 contract is at a discount to the spot, the number of warehouse receipts is at the highest level in recent years, and there is still room for actively reducing weight, de - stocking, and the spot price to find the bottom [3] - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral. The macro - environment is uncertain. Domestic policies to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand are still being promoted, which support the long - term pork demand to a certain extent, but short - term disturbing factors still exist [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is neutral. The speculative demands of secondary fattening and segmentation warehousing continue, the supply - side inventory - accumulation pattern is confirmed, and the spot price enters the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and de - stocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, wait and see; for arbitrage trading, wait and see. Pay attention to the secondary fattening demand and feed prices [3] 2. Pig Fundamental Data - **Production Efficiency - 1**: Since 2025, the average number of healthy piglets per litter has been basically stable in the range of 11 - 11.36, with a slight upward fluctuation as a whole. The farrowing - house survival rate has also shown a trend of "steady and slightly rising", rising from 91.03% at the beginning of 2025 to a stage high of 92.91% in February 2026 [14] - **Production Efficiency - 2**: The national survival rate of fattening pigs shows the characteristic of "seasonal fluctuation". December - February each year is the relatively low point of the annual survival rate, and then it gradually recovers, reaching the peak in the middle of the year and then falling back. Since 2025, the indicator has always remained at a relatively high level. The sample commercial pig slaughter volume also shows a trend of "steady and rising". In 2025, the slaughter volume continued to increase, from 16.15 million at the beginning of the year to a stage high of about 17.84 million at the end of the year. Although the slaughter volume decreased seasonally in December, it continued to increase after entering 2026 and is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [18] 3. Pig Capital - Side Data - **Basis of Different Contracts**: The report presents the basis data of 05, 09, and 01 contracts from 2022 - 2027 [46][47][48] - **Futures Monthly Spread**: It shows the 5 - 9 and 9 - 1 monthly spreads from 2022 - 2026 [50][51][52]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish view [3]. 2. Core View - The report is titled "Pigs: The Driving Force of Weight Reduction is Approaching, and the Near - term Pressure is Amplified" [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 9,930 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 9,850 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; Guangdong spot price is 10,510 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2605 is 10,220 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; Live Pig 2607 is 11,280 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; Live Pig 2609 is 12,575 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 148,035 lots, down 27,412 lots, and the open interest is 203,669 lots, up 3,858 lots; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 39,134 lots, down 14,882 lots, and the open interest is 74,575 lots, up 2,375 lots; for Live Pig 2609, the trading volume is 24,315 lots, down 7,262 lots, and the open interest is 66,889 lots, up 1,994 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2605 is - 290 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; the basis of Live Pig 2607 is - 1350 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the basis of Live Pig 2609 is - 2645 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 1060 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spread between Live Pig 7 - 9 is - 1295 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis. The supply is under pressure as the breeding side is selling normally and the sales of some large hogs are increasing. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. Overall, the supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the live hog price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - **Market Outlook**: The breeding side is selling normally, and the sales of some large hogs are increasing, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to relieve the supply pressure. The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The terminal consumption is still sluggish, and the slow sales force the products into storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity. The supply is high and the demand lacks positive factors. The fundamentals are still bearish. The average spot price of live hogs has reached a low of 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. The futures market remains weak, but the impact of capital flow on the market should be noted [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the live hog futures price broke through the support level and declined. The main contract 2605 dropped by 8.34% on a weekly basis [7][11] - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 20, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live hog futures was 64,491 lots, an increase of 5,199 lots from last week. The number of live hog futures warehouse receipts was 1,051, a decrease of 82 from the previous week [17] - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2605 and lh2607 contracts was - 1060, and the spread between lh2605 and lh2609 contracts was - 2355 [21] 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Base Difference**: This week, the base difference of the live hog May contract was - 220 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the July contract was - 1280 yuan/ton [28] - **Spot Price**: This week, the average national live hog market price was 10.20 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 26.62 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from last week [37] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: On March 20, the national pork market price was 15.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.45 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [44] - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week ending February 11, 2026, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.5, a decrease of 0.18 from the previous week [48] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In December 2025, the official inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million. According to institutional data, the inventory in February decreased slightly month - on - month. The inventory of 123 large - scale farms in February was 5.0204 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 166,860, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.12% [50][54] - **Live Hog Inventory**: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live hog inventory was 429.67 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. According to institutional data, in February, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57%. The inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 1.5767 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.89% [58] - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: According to institutional data, in February, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 9.9223 million, a month - on - month decrease of 12.95% and a year - on - year increase of 12.12%. The slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms in February was 559,600, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% and a year - on - year increase of 23.07%. The average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs this week was 123.28 kg, an increase of 0.11 kg from last week [62] 3.3.2 Industry Profit - **Live Hog and Poultry Breeding Profit**: As of March 20, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs was - 297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/hen, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan/hen; the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was - 0.62 yuan/chicken, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 yuan/chicken [65] 3.3.3 Domestic Market - **Pork Import**: In January and February 2026, the cumulative pork import was 120,000 tons, with a monthly average of 60,000 tons. In February, the pork import was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%; the import from January to February was 120,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68][72] 3.3.4 Substitute Products - **White - Striped Chicken and Fat - Standard Price Difference**: As of the week ending March 20, the white - striped chicken price was 13.7 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The average national standard - fat pig price difference was - 0.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg from last week [76] 3.3.5 Feed - **Feed Price**: As of March 20, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,405.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.43 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of corn was 2,454.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.75 yuan/ton from the previous week [83] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of March 20, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live hog feed cost index was 963.72; the average price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg [87] - **Feed Output**: From January to February 2026, the feed output was 51.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In February, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 3.84% month - on - month and 2.77% year - on - year [91] 3.3.6 CPI - As of February 2026, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year [96] 3.3.7 Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 12th week of 2026, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 30.45%, an increase of 1.92 percentage points from last week and 4.30 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - sales rate of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 80.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.65%; the frozen product storage capacity rate was 18.72%, an increase of 0.88% from last week and 1.70% from the same period last year [100] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of January 2026, the slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.96% and a 15.41% increase from the previous month. From January to February 2026, the national catering revenue was 1.0264 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase [105] 3.3.8 Live Hog Stocks - Stocks of Muyuan and Wens are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral investment rating for the pig industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The pig market is at the bottom and oscillating, waiting for a reversal. The speculative demand for secondary fattening and carcass segmentation continues, and the supply side's inventory accumulation pattern is confirmed. The spot price has entered the bottom - seeking stage, while the futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and destocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. In February, the progress of pig sales was slow, and the supply was postponed again. Group enterprises' pig sales returned to normal, the social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive carcass segmentation and warehousing increased, and the secondary fattening and speculative demand accelerated to enter the market, confirming the inventory accumulation pattern [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. The Spring Festival peak season has passed, and the off - season demand has dropped significantly. The speculative demand in January was advanced, and the negative feedback of the peak - season increment falling short of expectations emerged. The speculative demand such as secondary fattening and carcass segmentation has overdrawn the subsequent demand, and the market has a strong expectation of subsequent demand vacuum [3] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. The social side passively held back pigs, the volume of passive carcass segmentation and warehousing increased, and the post - festival pig weight is at the highest level in the same period in recent years and continues to increase [3] - **Basis/Spread**: It is neutral. The national average spot price of ternary pigs is about 10,130 yuan/ton (10.13 yuan/kg in Henan). The closing price of the LH2605 contract is 11,150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 970 yuan/ton (weakening month - on - month, and the discount range is expanding) [3] - **Profit**: It is neutral. Pig - raising enterprises are still in a loss state, and the pig - grain ratio is still below the break - even point. The spot price is running weakly, and the loss may continue [3] - **Valuation**: It is neutral. Currently, the price of the LH2605 contract is at a discount to the spot, the number of warehouse receipts is at the highest level in recent years, and there is still room for actively reducing weight, destocking, and the spot price to find the bottom [3] - **Macro and Policy**: It is neutral. There is uncertainty in the macro - environment. The domestic policies of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand are still being promoted, which support the long - term pork demand to some extent, but there are still short - term disturbing factors [3] - **Investment Viewpoint**: It is neutral. The speculative demand for secondary fattening and carcass segmentation continues, the supply - side inventory accumulation pattern is confirmed, and the spot price has entered the bottom - seeking stage. The futures are expected to enter the stage of actively reducing weight and destocking, and the futures market may oscillate to find the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see. Attention should be paid to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] Part Two: Pig Fundamental Data - This part presents multiple sets of pig - related data charts, including the prices of different types of pigs (standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets) in Henan, the price of front - three - grade白条, the inventory of sample sows, the number of newborn healthy piglets and commercial pig sales in five - province samples, the survival rates in the delivery room and fattening stage, the pig inventory structure, the average weight of pigs for sale and after slaughter, the price difference between standard and fat pigs, the price difference between the north and the south, the monthly sales volume of leading enterprises, the daily slaughter volume, the slaughter enterprise's operation rate, fresh - sales rate, storage rate, the wholesale volume of白条 in markets, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the price of fattening pig feed [5][9][11] Part Three: Pig Capital - Side Data - This part shows the basis of different contracts (11 - contract, 09 - contract, 07 - contract, 05 - contract) and the spread between different contracts (03 - 05, 01 - 05, 11 - 01, 01 - 03) [63][69]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Conditions - Futures: On the 12th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then冲高回落 and fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end. The highest price was 11,235 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,130 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 11,076 lots to 370,402 lots [8]. - Spot: On the 12th, the national average price of三元外 pigs was 10.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. Comments - Supply side: The production capacity continues to be realized, and the slaughter of the breeding side may continue to increase. A small amount of pig sources in February were postponed to March for slaughter. According to sample data from Yongyi, the planned slaughter volume in March is 27.25 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 25.29% in the monthly planned volume. Therefore, the supply-side pressure remains high, and the overall supply level is still loose [9]. - Demand side: The price has fallen to a low level, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is significantly advantageous. In some areas, a small amount of secondary fattening has entered the market. After the festival, the terminal consumption and slaughter volume have decreased significantly, mainly digesting the festival inventory, and the trading is light. At present, the consumption is slowly increasing in a restorative manner, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. Data shows that on March 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 142,400 heads, an increase of 16,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week-on-week increase of 6,000 heads, and a month-on-month decrease of 144,000 heads [9]. - Overall: In the spot market, the demand is slowly increasing in a restorative manner after the festival, but the supply pressure is still high, and the supply and demand are still relatively loose. The spot price is mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the production capacity is sufficient, and the supply of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase. At the same time, it is the off-season for consumption, and the support for the market is weak. The 05/07 contracts are mainly fluctuating weakly, but attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. Group 3: Industry News - As of March 5, the expected cost of self-breeding and self-raising was 12.10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of fattening pigs purchased externally is affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening pigs purchased externally to 125 kg and then sold is 12.51 yuan/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg [10][12]. Group 4: Data Overview - As of March 5, the average profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising pigs was -206.3 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 46.7 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening pigs purchased externally was -152.5 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9 yuan/head [21]. - According to Yongyi Consulting, the average market sales price of 6.5 kg piglets in the week of March 5 was 348 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head compared with the previous week [21]. - In the week of March 5, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.15 kg, an increase of 0.42 kg compared with the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 0.33%, an increase of 2.10 kg compared with the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 1.67%, and an increase of 1.09 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 0.86% [21]. - In the week of March 5, the cost of purchasing 110 kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.45 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/kg compared with the previous week; the cost of fattening 125 kg pigs to 150 kg was 10.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.25 yuan/kg compared with the previous week [21].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply pressure in the live pig market is gradually improving, but overall the market shows an oscillating trend. The spot price of live pigs is on a decline, and the pressure of the subsequent pig slaughter volume is still relatively significant. The futures price shows an oscillating performance, and in the long - term, the supply - side pressure remains the main influencing factor [3][5] - In the short term, the supply and demand of the live pig market are relatively loose. The upside space is limited, mainly affected by the supply - side's impact on price after the decline in inventory. The futures may be relatively strong in the short term, but in the medium and long - term, it is expected to run in an oscillating manner [5] Group 3: Specific Content Summaries Spot Price - Today, the live pig prices across the country are in a downward state. The average price today is 10.04 yuan, a decrease of 0.02 yuan compared to yesterday. Different regions have different price changes, such as a 0.11 - yuan decrease in Henan, a 0.14 - yuan decrease in Shanxi, etc. [3] Futures Price - Futures prices show an oscillating trend. For example, LH01 decreased by 5 to 13785, LH07 increased by 25 to 12310, etc. [3] Sow/Piglet Price - Piglet prices this week are 326, a decrease of 21 compared to last week; sow prices are 1543, a decrease of 6 compared to last week [3] Spot Breeding Profit - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising is - 237.98, a decrease of 78.33 compared to yesterday; the profit for purchasing piglets is - 58.89, a decrease of 79.72 compared to yesterday [3] Slaughter End - The slaughter volume today is 140719 heads, an increase of 1044 compared to yesterday [3] Size Pig Price Difference - The price difference between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs is 0.65 today, an increase of 0.04 compared to yesterday; the price difference between large pigs and standard pigs is 0.670909091, a decrease of 0.04 compared to yesterday [3] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to mainly wait and see - Arbitrage: LH7 - 11 long spread - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]