2026 年 3 月 2 日 生猪：淡季被动累库，肥标驱动将现 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 10980 | | -50 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 10700 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11410 | | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11485 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12510 | | 150 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2609 | 元/吨 | 13495 | | 165 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,030 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton. For futures, the price of live hog 2603 is 10,120 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 275 yuan/ton, live hog 2605 is 11,395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and live hog 2607 is 12,360 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live hog 2603, the trading volume is 15,271 lots, an increase of 299 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 16,629 lots, a decrease of 8,167 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2605, the trading volume is 54,028 lots, a decrease of 38,690 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 154,348 lots, a decrease of 119 lots from the previous day. For live hog 2607, the trading volume is 9,060 lots, a decrease of 6,783 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 53,361 lots, an increase of 553 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spreads**: The basis of live hog 2603 is 910 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 375 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2605 is - 365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2607 is - 1330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 85 yuan/ton. The spread between live hog 2603 and 2605 is - 1275 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 205 yuan/ton, and the spread between live hog 2605 and 2607 is - 965 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 85 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; Muyuan registered 80 lots; COFCO registered 300 lots; Tangrenshen registered 10 lots; Yuexiu registered 99 lots; Tiannong registered 20 lots [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The futures market is trading inventory accumulation in advance, but it is difficult to reduce inventory during the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: - Henan spot price is 10,930 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,900 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 11,310 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - Futures prices:生猪2603 is 10,395 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton;生猪2605 is 11,465 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton;生猪2607 is 12,345 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - For生猪2603, trading volume is 11,725 hands, down 4,001 hands from the previous day, and open interest is 23,819 hands, down 4,193 hands from the previous day [2]. - For生猪2605, trading volume is 92,641 hands, up 14,108 hands, and open interest is 154,544 hands, up 2,011 hands [2]. - For生猪2607, trading volume is 15,839 hands, up 6,257 hands, and open interest is 52,812 hands, up 1,698 hands [2]. - **Spread Data**: - 生猪2603 basis is 535 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2605 basis is - 535 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪2607 basis is - 1,415 yuan/ton, down 410 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - 生猪3 - 5 spread is - 1,070 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton year - on - year;生猪5 - 7 spread is - 880 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 hands of 3 - month contract warehouse receipts; Dekang registered 525 hands; Fuyuan registered 22 hands; Muyuan registered 80 hands; COFCO registered 300 hands; Tangrenshen registered 10 hands; Yuexiu registered 99 hands; Tiannong registered 20 hands [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].

2026 年 2 月 25 日 生猪：现货不及预期，淡季去库难度大 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11080 | | -1300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11300 | | 450 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11660 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | | | 单 位 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12480 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11350 | | 500 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11860 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 10740 | | -155 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11500 | | -40 | | | 货 | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12220 | | -10 | | | 期 ...

行业 生猪日报 日期 2026 年 02 月 12 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，11 日生猪主力 2605 合约小幅低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 11590 元/吨，最低 11405 元/吨，收盘报 11555 元/吨，较昨日涨 0.30%， ...

2026 年 2 月 11 日 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | -250 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 10850 | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 11660 | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 10745 | 100 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | 11470 | -95 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12160 | 30 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2603 | 手 | 30850 | -2869 | 51980 | -8063 | | | 生猪2605 | 手 | 46228 | -24311 | 149549 | 1842 | | | 生猪2607 | 手 | 6147 | -1163 | 50025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market shows an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and the spot price is mainly in a weak - oscillating state. The futures market has sufficient production capacity, and the pig supply is expected to increase slightly. Fattened pigs from secondary fattening still need to be sold after the festival, which will continue to put pressure on the market. After the festival, it is the consumption off - season, so the 03/05 contracts are mainly in a weak - oscillating state [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 10th, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then oscillated downwards, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 11,575 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,429 lots to 316,097 lots [10] - **Spot Market**: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.56 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg compared to the previous day [10] - **Supply - side**: Currently, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens is relatively high year - on - year, and there are still pigs to be sold before the festival. In February, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises decreased by 17.73% month - on - month. Affected by the reduction in sales days during the holiday, the daily average increased by 21.44% month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the enthusiasm of the breeding side to sell pigs has increased, and the sales rhythm has accelerated [11] - **Demand - side**: Secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Around the traditional Chinese minor New Year, the terminal's Spring Festival stocking has increased significantly, which is also the last wave of peak demand before the festival. The consumption demand has increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased significantly. On February 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 276,000 heads, an increase of 24,000 heads compared to the previous day, 84,000 heads week - on - week, and 85,000 heads month - on - month [11] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 5th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.08 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg week - on - week. The cost of fattening pigs from purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling them was 12.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg week - on - week [12][13] 3.3 Data Overview - As of February 5th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was 37 yuan/head, a decrease of 9 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 24.2 yuan/head, a decrease of 10.3 yuan/head week - on - week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 366 yuan/head, a decrease of 1 yuan/head compared to the previous week [16] - In the week of February 5th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.40 kg, a decrease of 0.46 kg compared to the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%), a decrease of 1.14 kg compared to the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 3.22 kg compared to the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.59%) [16] - In the week of February 5th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.93 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin week - on - week [16] - The cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg this week was 11.86 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.48 yuan/kg compared to the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 12.38 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/kg compared to the previous week [16]

国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-02-09 谢威 从业资格证号：F03087820 投资咨询证号：Z0019508 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 生猪：近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【生猪周报（LH)】 近月需求旺季不旺，远月产能去化支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 10月能繁母猪存栏量降至3990.0万头，减少45.0万头；11月样本企业能繁母猪存栏量下降至666.6万头；企业及散户出栏增加，二育介入导致库存累积，供应 压力持续。 | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 冬至备货需求释放，终端消费小幅回暖，下游屠宰企业订单增加，屠企开工率提升，但存在透支及后续需求真空预期。 | | | 库存 | 偏多 | 屠企和冻品库容率均处于同期低位。 | | | 基差/价差 | 中性 | 全国外三元现货均价约12720元/吨，LH2605合约收盘价11620元/吨 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.02.06」 生猪市场周报 生猪弱势调整，关注节前资金表现 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z001845 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 本周期货震荡收跌 联系电话：059586778969 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21% u 行情展望：规模养殖场降重出栏增量，中小散户出栏积极亦较高，节前供应压力仍有，不过价格连续 下跌后刺激部分企业的惜售挺价情绪，出栏节奏可能小有波动。结合能繁母猪及新生仔猪数据分析， 近两个月出栏相对充足。需求端，下周节前备货收尾，叠加春节后需求预期减弱，对价格支撑减弱。 资金方面，注意下周春节前资金变化风险。总体来说，供需博弈局面延续，考虑到节后供需格局转松 预期，生猪盘面或弱势调整运行，不过也要关注节前资金变化风险。 「 期货市场情况」 图1、大连生猪期货价格走势图 来源：文化财经 瑞达期货研究院 u 本周生猪价格震荡收跌，主力合约2605合约周度下跌0.21%。 ...