Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a large - scale production increase in July without a final decision. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil seasonally increased, with absolute inventory lower than the annual average and slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuation, refinery operations have risen as expected, leading indicators of US production have declined, the US - Iran negotiation is deadlocked, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are likely to fluctuate upward. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil remains bearish due to OPEC's supply policy and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 21 to May 27, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a decrease in the latest data; BRENT prices decreased by $0.65; OMAN prices decreased by $0.73; domestic gasoline prices increased by $30.00; Japanese naphtha - BRT increased by $5.65; Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $1.65; the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange FU decreased by 65 points; and the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange BU decreased by 10 points [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Trump warned Netanyahu not to take actions that could jeopardize the US - Iran nuclear negotiations. Israel is preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the negotiations fail. - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister said that OPEC+ has not discussed a 410,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in July. The G7 and the EU's plan to tighten the Russian oil price cap to $50 per barrel is unacceptable. - Goldman Sachs predicts that non - OPEC shale oil production (excluding Russia) may accelerate to 1 million barrels per day in the next two years, and new natural gas projects in Saudi Arabia and Qatar may increase OPEC's LNG production to an average of 200,000 barrels per day per year [5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending May 16, US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventory increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels. US domestic crude oil production increased by 500 barrels per day to 1.3392 million barrels per day, and exports increased by 138,000 barrels per day to 350,700 barrels per day. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with an increase in both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and a decrease from local refineries. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [6].

【环球网报道 记者 张倩】美国Axios新闻网5月27日援引白宫官员及知情人士消息报道称，美国总统特朗普当地时间22日与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡 通话时，曾警告对方不要采取任何可能破坏美伊核谈判的行动。 以色列总理办公室22日发表声明称，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天与美国总统特朗普通话，双方讨论了加沙局势、伊朗核问题以及以色列驻美使馆工作 人员遇害等问题。此外，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特22日表示，特朗普与内塔尼亚胡通话，双方讨论了与伊朗的潜在协议以及华盛顿枪击案等。特 朗普认为，事态正朝着正确方向发展。 特朗普还告诉内塔尼亚胡，"其他选项"仍然摆在桌面上，但他希望先观察外交方案是否可行。 Axios新闻网提到，上述官员透露，特朗普和其他美国高级官员最近几周愈发担忧以色列可能会轰炸伊朗核设施或采取其他可能破坏美伊核谈判的 行动，一旦美伊核谈判在未来几周破裂，以色列将迅速打击伊朗核设施。知情人士还称，以色列认为其成功实施打击行动的窗口期可能很快关 闭。而部分美方官员担心，即便没有特朗普的允许，内塔尼亚胡也可能下令发动袭击。 对于上述消息，Axios新闻网称，以色列总理办公室拒绝置评。 报道称，上述白宫官员透露，特朗普在22日的 ...

俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫：美伊核谈判有望取得进展。 ...

金十数据5月28日讯，一位白宫官员和一位熟悉细节的消息人士称，特朗普上周在电话中警告以色列总 理内塔尼亚胡不要采取任何可能危及美国和伊朗之间就新核协议进行谈判的行动。这名官员说，最近几 周，特朗普和其他美国高级官员越来越担心以色列可能轰炸伊朗的核设施，或采取其他可能破坏谈判的 措施。以色列一直在做好准备，以便在未来几周美伊核谈判可能谈崩时迅速打击伊朗的核设施。一位消 息人士称，以色列认为其成功打击伊朗的操作窗口可能很快就会关闭。一些美国官员担心，内塔尼亚胡 可能会在没有特朗普开绿灯的情况下下令发动袭击。白宫官员说，特朗普在上周四的电话中告诉内塔尼 亚胡，"不希望任何事情阻碍"与伊朗的外交解决方案。特朗普的信息是"他不希望在他试图解决问题的 时候与他对抗"。特朗普向内塔尼亚胡强调，"其他选择"也在考虑之中，但他希望先看看是否有可能通 过外交途径解决。 （AXIOS网站） 特朗普警告内塔尼亚胡不要轻举妄动 以免破坏伊朗核谈判 ...

不过，针对美伊核谈判，特朗普则对外放出风声称，可能会有一些"好消息"。 美媒：特朗普考虑对俄追加制裁 《华尔街日报》当地时间26日报道称，据了解特朗普想法的人士透露，由于对俄罗斯持续打击乌克兰及和平谈 判进展缓慢感到不满，特朗普本周正考虑追加对俄罗斯实施的制裁。 报道指出，美国追加的新制裁可能不包括新的银行业限制，但其他施压选项正在讨论中，目的是迫使俄方在谈 判桌上作出让步。但特朗普也可能决定不实施新制裁。 报道援引消息人士的说法称，特朗普也对和平谈判感到厌倦，正考虑若最后一次推动失败，就彻底放弃谈判。 对此，白宫新闻秘书卡莱维特26日在给美媒的一份声明中称："特朗普已明确表示希望看到通过谈判达成和平 协议。他也明智地保留了所有选项。" 此前5月25日，特朗普在社交媒体上发文，就俄罗斯向乌克兰城市发射导弹和无人机批评普京，称他一直同普 京保持着非常好的关系，但普京现在变得"疯狂"。 特朗普，又传出新动作！ 据外媒报道，美国总统特朗普正考虑对俄罗斯实施新的制裁，目的是迫使俄方在谈判桌上作出让步。报道称， 他还在考虑，如果最后一次推动和平的努力失败，就彻底退出俄乌冲突调解进程。 与此同时，特朗普与哈佛大学的矛盾也 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, currently trading at $3347.39 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.29% [1] - The US dollar index is hovering near a one-month low, currently around 98.81, with a focus on the support level at the lower Bollinger Band around 98.66 [1] Group 2 - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump believes the quality of the EU's trade proposals is insufficient, threatening to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 to pressure the EU in negotiations [2] - US and Iranian negotiators held talks in Rome aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program, with concerns that failure to reach an agreement could impact oil supply and potentially lead to military action against Iran [2] - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee indicated that there is still a possibility of lowering borrowing costs in the next 10 to 16 months, but the threshold for recent rate cuts is "slightly higher" [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis of gold indicates a short-term consolidation phase, with resistance encountered between $3340 and $3360, while maintaining an overall medium-term upward trend as long as prices stay above $3300 [2] - If gold prices can regain stability above $3370, there is potential to challenge the yearly high of $3500 [2]

伊朗外长阿格拉齐5月21日重申，无论是否与美国达成协议，伊朗铀浓缩活动都将继续进行。这已经是 阿格拉齐在10天内5次重申这一立场。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊5月20日警告称，美国所谓"不允许伊朗进 行铀浓缩活动"的言论很荒唐。而美国国务卿鲁比奥当天则表示，与伊朗谈判的重点是伊朗的铀浓缩能 力。阿格拉齐还表示，目前正在评估是否参加下一轮美伊核谈判以及具体时间。美国与伊朗分别于4月 12日、4月19日、4月26日及5月11日举行了四轮间接谈判。5月11日的第四轮谈判结束后，双方至今都没 有宣布下一轮谈判的时间。路透社5月19日曾援引消息人士的话报道称，伊朗与美国拟于本周末在意大 利首都罗马举行第五轮间接谈判。(CCTV国际时讯) ...

Energy - The EU is considering implementing zero quotas on Russian gas imports, allowing European buyers to terminate agreements with Russian suppliers due to force majeure [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production increased by 2% this month, reaching 1.86 million barrels per day, with the Tengiz oil field contributing 932,000 barrels per day [2] - The Kazakh Energy Ministry expects no further increase in Tengiz oil field production this year, as the country is taking measures to comply with OPEC+ obligations [2] - Qatar's Energy Minister stated that Indian LNG buyers are negotiating to increase procurement from Qatar, with capital expenditures for LNG expansion requiring oil prices to reach $70 or $80 [2] Other Commodities - International gold prices have returned to $3,300 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices have surpassed 1,000 yuan [2] - The International Tin Association announced that Myanmar's Wa State has been granted permission to fully resume tin mining production by late April 2025, and production is gradually recovering [2] - Argentina's Economy Minister announced an extension of tax exemptions on wheat and barley exports until March 31, 2026, excluding soybeans, corn, sunflowers, sorghum, or by-products [2] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. officials indicated that intelligence suggests Israel may be preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, although a final decision has not been made [3] - Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that Iran has received proposals for the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations and is currently reviewing them [3] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei expressed skepticism about the success of nuclear negotiations with the U.S. [3] - The Ukrainian Foreign Minister suggested that the price cap on Russian oil should be lowered to $30 per barrel [3] - India plans to spend $10 billion by 2040 to purchase 112 crude oil tankers [3] - The U.S. is preparing to extend Chevron's exemption in Venezuela for another 60 days [3] - Qatar Energy Company's CEO announced that the North Field East expansion project is expected to commence production by mid-2026 [3] - Poland's oil company discovered a new smaller oil field during drilling, with reserves estimated at 2 million barrels of oil [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing likelihood of Israel preparing to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, which could lead to broader conflicts in the Middle East and impact global oil and gold prices significantly [1][2]. Group 1: Military Movements and Implications - U.S. intelligence indicates that Israel may be mobilizing for a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, with observed military movements including the deployment of air munitions and completion of an aerial exercise [2]. - If Israel proceeds with an attack, it would represent a significant departure from previous U.S. policy under Trump, potentially escalating tensions in the region [2][3]. - The possibility of an Israeli strike has reportedly increased in recent months, particularly if the U.S. does not ensure the removal of all uranium from Iran [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Following the news of potential military action, international oil prices surged by 3.5%, reaching $64.19 per barrel, while gold prices also saw a significant increase, surpassing $3300 per ounce [4]. - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear agreements are complicated by the threat of military action, which could hinder diplomatic progress and exacerbate instability in a region that supplies about one-third of the world's oil [5]. - High oil prices are further influenced by geopolitical risks, with analysts suggesting that if negotiations fail, oil prices could maintain a risk premium due to the potential for conflict [5]. Group 3: Negotiation Dynamics - Recent statements from Iranian officials indicate skepticism about the potential for successful negotiations with the U.S., particularly regarding uranium enrichment demands [6]. - Despite sanctions, Iran has reportedly increased its oil supply by approximately 1 million barrels per day, which could significantly affect global oil prices if removed from the market [6].

Core Insights - Israeli preparations for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities have been confirmed by U.S. intelligence, indicating a significant shift in regional dynamics [1] - The decision-making process within Israeli leadership regarding the strike remains unclear, with internal divisions within the U.S. government about the likelihood of such actions [1] - The potential for an Israeli attack has increased in recent months, driven by concerns that U.S.-Iran negotiations will not eliminate all of Iran's uranium [1] Summary by Categories Israeli Actions - Israel is reportedly preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a potential departure from previous U.S. policy under President Trump [1] - The likelihood of an Israeli strike has significantly increased in recent months [1] U.S. Government Response - U.S. officials express concerns that an Israeli attack could lead to broader regional conflict, especially following the tensions from the 2023 Gaza war [1] - There are serious divisions within the U.S. government regarding the probability of Israel taking military action against Iran [1] Iran's Nuclear Negotiations - The outcome of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations is seen as a critical factor influencing Israel's decision on whether to strike [1] - The inability of negotiations to fully eliminate Iran's uranium stockpile heightens the risk of an Israeli military response [1]