据英国广播公司报道，美国国务院副发言人皮戈特回应称，伊朗希望得到补偿的言论是"可笑"的，伊朗 应停止将资金浪费在核计划上。特朗普在7月31日被问及美伊谈判时称，伊朗做得非常糟糕，"他们不会 好好说话"。报道称，美伊谈判目前陷入僵局，主要分歧点在于特朗普政府希望伊朗完全停止铀浓缩活 动，而后者认为该议题是"不可协商"的。（线一凡） 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社报道，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃驳斥上述言论为"荒谬且毫无根据的指控"。他强 调，这类指控是"赤裸裸的推诿"，其旨在转移国际社会对加沙地区种族灭绝情况的关注，是为向伊朗施 压而"公然捏造"的政治操弄。签署"反伊联合声明"的行为违反了国际法原则和联合国宪章，相关国家需 要对这种不负责任的行为负责。 除上述指控争议外，美伊核谈判前景仍持续引发关注。阿拉格齐7月31日在接受英国《金融时报》采访 时表示，他与美国中东问题特使威特科夫交换了意见，两国需要"双赢解决方案"来推动核谈判进程。美 国此前轰炸了伊朗的核设施。伊朗希望在重启谈判前就冲突产生的损失获得赔偿，且得到不会在未来谈 判中再次被攻击的保证。若美国坚持要求伊朗实现"零铀浓缩"，双方就不可能达成协议。 【环球时报综合报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, highlighting the challenges and complexities arising from recent events, including Israeli attacks on Iran and the lack of trust between the parties involved [1][12]. Summary by Sections Progress in Negotiations - The first five rounds of indirect talks between the US and Iran resulted in four key agreements: 1. Iran agreed to implement the highest level of transparency and verification mechanisms for its nuclear facilities [2]. 2. Iran consented to dilute or transfer 400 kilograms of enriched uranium to prevent the possibility of building nuclear weapons [2]. 3. Iran will reduce the enrichment level of uranium to below 5% for civilian reserves, alleviating concerns about its potential to enrich uranium to weapon-grade levels [2]. 4. Iran will cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to resolve remaining technical issues [2]. Challenges in Negotiations - The negotiations face significant hurdles due to differing perceptions of sanctions relief. The US insists on Iran taking specific actions first, while Iran views phased sanctions relief as a prerequisite for negotiations [6]. - The core conflict lies in the US's belief that Iran's nuclear program aims to develop weapons, while Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes [7]. Impact of Regional Dynamics - The article notes the cyclical nature of the conflict, where Iran's nuclear development prompts Israeli military actions, leading to further negotiations and escalations [5]. - The Israeli policy of "nuclear ambiguity" complicates the situation, as Iran perceives attacks from a nation that does not openly acknowledge its nuclear arsenal as unjustifiable [6]. Potential Withdrawal from NPT - Following recent conflicts, Iran is considering drafting a bill to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which could lead to severe diplomatic and security challenges for Iran [8][9]. - The article emphasizes that while there are calls within Iran to exit the NPT, such a move would be detrimental to its international standing and security [9]. US Domestic Perspectives - There is a notable preference among the American public for diplomatic solutions over military action regarding Iran's nuclear program, with a majority opposing military strikes [11]. - The article highlights internal divisions within the US government regarding the approach to Iran, with some advocating for military action while others support diplomatic engagement [10]. Future of Negotiations - The article concludes that the path to resuming negotiations is fraught with difficulties, particularly due to Iran's low trust in the US following military actions and the need for assurances against further attacks during negotiations [12]. - Despite the challenges, there remains hope for a peaceful resolution, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation in the Middle East [12].

Group 1 - The U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff plans to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oslo next week to restart nuclear negotiations [1] - Iran's precondition for resuming talks is a guarantee from the U.S. that Iran will not face further attacks, and Iran has not halted its uranium enrichment plans [1] - This meeting would mark the first formal negotiations between the U.S. and Iran since the U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities last month [1] Group 2 - A key topic for future negotiations will be Iran's stockpile of high-enriched uranium, which includes approximately 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% [2] - These uranium stocks are currently contained within three facilities that have been targeted by joint strikes, making them inaccessible for Iran [2] - The damage from airstrikes has temporarily prevented Iran from retrieving these nuclear materials, but they may regain operational capability once the debris is cleared [2] Group 3 - Following the news of potential negotiations, international oil prices experienced a pullback, with Brent crude futures dropping by over 1.1% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The path to restarting nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. is increasingly difficult due to rising demands from both sides and a fragile ceasefire status that lacks substantial constraints [1][2][3] Group 1: Current Situation - The current ceasefire is described as exceptionally fragile, with a high likelihood of new conflicts arising in the future [1][2] - Iran insists that the U.S. must demonstrate goodwill before considering returning to the negotiation table, while the U.S. has threatened military action [1][2] - Both Iran and the U.S. have raised their demands, complicating the prospects for resuming negotiations [2] Group 2: Historical Context - Iran's demands are influenced by the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018, which has led Iran to believe that the U.S. cannot arbitrarily change its stance in negotiations [2] - Previous negotiations between Iran and the U.S. have occurred over five rounds, but recent military actions by the U.S. and Israel have strained relations [2] Group 3: Military Tensions - U.S. President Trump has warned that if intelligence indicates Iran is capable of enriching uranium to military levels, the U.S. will likely conduct airstrikes [2][3] - The lack of a formal text or guarantee mechanisms for the ceasefire raises concerns about its sustainability and increases the risk of military conflict [3]

Group 1 - The temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran has been achieved after 12 days of conflict, with Trump suggesting that China can purchase Iranian oil, claiming the U.S. will not intervene [2][3] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by stating that it will adjust its energy measures based on its own needs, indicating that the decision to buy Iranian oil is independent of U.S. influence [3][8] - Iran's Foreign Minister attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization defense meeting shortly after the ceasefire, highlighting Iran's swift diplomatic response [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's Defense Minister's visit to China is seen as a strategic move to seek support before U.S.-Iran negotiations, with expectations for China to play a role in balancing U.S. pressure [5][10] - The term "hosting justice" may imply that Iran seeks China's support in condemning U.S. actions at the UN and to facilitate oil trade despite U.S. sanctions [7][8] - Iran is looking to strengthen defense cooperation with China due to vulnerabilities exposed during the recent conflict, including significant gaps in air defense and intelligence failures [10]

Group 1 - Trump's recent statement on allowing China to purchase Iranian oil after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran surprised oil traders and U.S. officials [1][2] - The White House clarified that this does not indicate a relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Iran, emphasizing that sanctions will continue [2] - Trump's comments may be seen as an attempt to encourage cooperation from China and Iran in upcoming negotiations, despite previous strict measures against Iranian oil exports [2] Group 2 - The U.S. has imposed sanctions on hundreds of vessels involved in transporting Iranian oil and targeted Chinese entities purchasing Iranian oil [2] - Trump's earlier warnings required all nations to cease purchasing Iranian oil or face secondary sanctions, indicating a tough stance on Iranian oil imports [2] - A senior White House official suggested that Trump's remarks were aimed at promoting U.S. oil imports instead of Iranian oil, highlighting the ongoing enforcement of sanctions [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran is escalating, with Israel's military actions aimed at disrupting U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations [1][2] - U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. has completed attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, which aligns with Israel's long-standing position on Iran's nuclear capabilities [1] - The Israeli Defense Forces announced an immediate adjustment to their national defense posture in response to the current situation, indicating heightened military readiness [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that Israel's declaration of "war" against Iran is primarily to prevent a new nuclear agreement between the U.S. and Iran, fearing that such an agreement would empower Iran [2] - The recent military actions by Israel are seen as a direct response to the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, which have been a significant factor in the escalation of hostilities [2] - The underlying cause of the conflict is identified as the security dilemma between Israel and Iran, with both nations viewing each other as major regional threats [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Turkish President Erdogan accuses Israel of attempting to undermine US-Iran nuclear negotiations through its attacks, indicating Israel's unwillingness to resolve issues through diplomatic means [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly, with both sides engaging in retaliatory attacks, leading to substantial casualties and raising concerns about potential U.S. involvement in the situation [1][6][7]. Recent Developments - Iran launched a new round of missile attacks against Israel on June 19, marking the seventh day of conflict since Israel's initial strikes on June 13 [1][2]. - Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran would not accept imposed peace or war and warned of severe consequences for Israel's actions [1][2]. - The Iranian military has reportedly completed its 14th round of strikes against Israeli strategic targets [4]. Casualty Figures - The conflict has resulted in significant casualties on both sides, with approximately 585 deaths and 1,326 injuries reported in Iran due to Israeli airstrikes [6]. - In Israel, the attacks from Iran have led to 24 deaths and over 1,300 injuries [6]. U.S. Response - U.S. President Trump stated that the U.S. is not seeking a ceasefire but aims for a complete victory over Iran, particularly regarding its nuclear capabilities [7][8]. - Reports indicate that Trump has approved military strike plans against Iran but has not yet issued final orders, suggesting a cautious approach [8]. - The U.S. has denied direct involvement in the Israeli attacks but has indicated support for Israel's defense against Iranian missile strikes [9][10].