Group 1 - Gold prices remain stable and are expected to achieve a fourth consecutive month of gains, supported by indications that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates next month [1][4] - As of Friday, gold prices approached $4,170 per ounce, with a weekly increase of over 2% [1] - Swap traders anticipate an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - A record U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, complicating the assessment of the U.S. economy for both the Federal Reserve and investors [4] - Precious metal prices have been rising almost every month this year, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 1979 [4] - Significant central bank purchases and inflows of non-sovereign funds into exchange-traded funds have driven metal prices to a historical high of over $4,380 last month [4] - Gold prices have remained stable above $4,000 per ounce this month after a pullback from peak levels [4] - As of the report, gold prices increased by 0.3% to $4,171.18 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index slightly declined [4]

Retail Data Overview - In September 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 0.4% and down from the previous 0.6%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding autos and gas) rose by 0.3%, matching expectations but revised down from a previous 0.6%[2] Market Reaction - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.43%, 0.91%, and 0.67% respectively[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.01%, while the 2-year yield also decreased by 3 basis points to 3.43%[3] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer confidence index dropped from 58.2 to 55.1 in September, indicating reduced consumer spending willingness[7] - Non-essential spending decreased in categories such as non-store retail (-0.7%), sports and hobbies (-2.5%), and clothing (-0.7%)[5][9] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of tariff policies and government shutdown risks has negatively impacted consumer spending capacity[4] - Despite the weak September data, the potential for a December interest rate cut remains uncertain, with a 50% probability forecasted[4][12] Future Consumption Trends - The fourth quarter is traditionally a peak consumption season in the U.S., with events like Thanksgiving and Christmas expected to boost demand[8] - The easing of trade tensions and the resumption of government operations are anticipated to improve consumer sentiment moving forward[8]

Group 1 - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, leading to a rebound in gold prices [1][3] - Short-term technical indicators suggest a demand for a rebound in gold, with support levels at $4100 and $4070, and resistance at $4150 and potential breakout at $4200 [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices show a peak at $4159 before retreating, indicating short-term pressure despite the demand for a rebound [3] Group 2 - The probability of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen from less than 40% to 70% in one day, and further to 81% this week, following the end of the government shutdown and the release of key economic data [3] - The rebound in gold prices is supported by the decline of the US dollar, which has recently reached a six-month high due to cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding rate cuts [3] - The recent strong performance of US tech stocks has diminished the attractiveness of gold, leading to limited rebound potential for gold prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, with the price center shifting down and running weakly [1][3] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises are expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5th, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. Future attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum - There are rumors that a new mining area in Guinea may produce ore, but its actual shipment needs further confirmation. With high absolute inventory, the pattern of sufficient bauxite supply is difficult to change, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [3] - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are deepening, showing significant structural differentiation. The primary aluminum alloy maintains a stable supply - demand pattern, and aluminum cables are a bright spot, while most sectors face downward pressure [3] - On November 24, 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 613,000 tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from last Monday and 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro situation has mixed sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and high - level pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain stable as the market assesses the possibility of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again before the end of the year [1][4] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - As of the latest update, spot gold prices fluctuate around $4,050 per ounce, following a 0.3% decline on Friday [1] - Gold prices briefly rose to $4,100 after comments from New York Fed President Williams, but subsequently fell back to around $4,050 [4] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by approximately 55%, driven by heightened trade and geopolitical uncertainties, as well as concerns over deteriorating government fiscal conditions [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Outlook - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of economic data, which is crucial for assessing the likelihood of interest rate cuts [4] - Key economic indicators, including September retail sales and producer price data, are set to be released this week, along with unemployment claims data [4] - Futures traders currently estimate a slightly over 69% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month [4]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic despite recent fluctuations, driven by expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][5]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened at $4084.59 per ounce, hitting a weekly low of $3997.78 before reaching a high of $4132.38, ultimately closing at $4064.80, reflecting a weekly range of $134.6 and a decline of $19.79 or 0.48% [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with expectations of a bullish trend in the longer term, despite short-term resistance [3][5]. Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve has not indicated an end to the easing cycle, with many officials suggesting further policy loosening over time, which supports the case for future rate cuts [5]. - Recent strong employment data and mixed signals from Fed officials have tempered immediate rate cut expectations, but the overall sentiment remains that a rate cut in early next year is likely [5][9]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential for a global rate cut cycle in 2026 are providing strong support for gold prices [5]. - The absence of employment data due to government shutdowns raises concerns about decision-making and unemployment rates, further underpinning gold's appeal as a safe haven [5]. Technical Analysis - On a weekly basis, gold prices closed above the 10-week moving average, indicating potential for further gains, with the 10-week moving average serving as a key support level [7]. - The current price action suggests a consolidation within a triangular pattern, with key resistance at $4230 and support levels at $3930 and $4045 [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes reveal significant divisions regarding future monetary policy adjustments, indicating uncertainty in the direction of future rate changes [1][2] - In October, the Federal Reserve implemented its second rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4.00%, marking the fifth cut since September 2024 [1] - The minutes show that several participants opposed the October rate cut, while others believe a December cut is likely, but many think it may not be appropriate due to ongoing inflation risks [1][2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days has hindered the availability of economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [2] - Current economic data does not strongly support a third consecutive rate cut, as overall inflation remains above target levels, with no clear signs of a return to the 2% target [2] - The Federal Reserve plans to officially stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which may influence future rate adjustments [2] Group 3 - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, reaching a four-year high, has created divergent market expectations [3] - The December meeting of the Federal Reserve will be closely watched, as its decisions significantly impact global financial markets [3] - Following the meeting minutes, the U.S. dollar strengthened while the Japanese yen weakened, with the dollar index reaching 100.35, close to a six-month high [3] Group 4 - The future trajectory of gold prices is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with central bank policies influencing market directions as year-end approaches [4]

我们面对的是联储的"人造迷雾"，强行制造降息悬念，增加预期弹性；已有数据完全足 以支撑12月再次降息的发生。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 在10月的FOMC中，鲍威尔将当前环境称之为"迷雾中开车，需小心行驶"，并将市场预期向12月不降 息方向引导。自那之后，联储官员普遍转向鹰派，强调通胀的上行风险并支持12月暂停降息：12月降 息预期一度从完全定价跌至不足30%。 鲍威尔的本意或是引导市场定价预期的回摆，保持预期管理的有效性，但从结果来看有些玩脱了，至少 9月非农的数据指向了12月继续降息的必要性。 由于非官方的ADP小非农以及谘商会等数据在9-10月表现较差，此前市场对于9月非农的新增就业预 期并不高（约5万人左右水平）；与此同时，在"供需双弱"的背景下，市场却并没有对失业率的上行形 成一致预期。换言之，此前6-8月失业率的再度上行并没有得到足够的重视，但这恰恰是9月非农报告 中最"扎眼"的部分。 哪怕9月新增就业再怎么超预期，也仅在11.9万人水平；考虑到6月与8月都是负增长，在如此大的波 动中，更无法得出非农已经"企稳"的结论。更何况，从三个月平均增长水平来看，与今年上半年都有 明显差距。 在劳动力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rebound in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by the September non-farm payroll report, complicates the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month [1] Group 1: Labor Market Data - September added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding economists' predictions of 50,000 and notably higher than the revised 22,000 jobs added in August [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, marking the highest level since 2021 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The positive labor data strengthens the position of hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee, who caution against rapid interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are evident, with one faction advocating for a rate cut in December to support the labor market, while another faction expresses concerns over potential inflation risks [1] Group 3: Impact of Government Shutdown - The report is the first economic health indicator released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since the record government shutdown disrupted the publication of official data [1] - Due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not separately release the October employment report, with some data being merged into the November report [1]

（原标题：金价持续攀升创近三周新高） 波黑国家台11月11日报道。受市场对美联储12月再次降息的预期升温，且美国政府停摆危机出现有 望结束的迹象，黄金价格延续涨势，触及近三周最高点。 美国参议院于11月10日通过一项重启联邦政府拨款协议，史上持续时间最长的政府停摆局面或将告 终。此次政府停摆导致非农就业报告等关键经济指标发布受阻。未来数日政府恢复运转后，市场将更清 晰把握美国经济前景及美联储利率政策走向。（驻波黑使馆经商处） 今晨数据显示，现货黄金价格上涨0.4%至每盎司4131.32美元，创10月23日以来新高。路透社报 道，12月交割的黄金期货合约上涨至每盎司4137.50美元。 ...