1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall market situation is complex, with different commodities showing different trends and risks [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight prices rose slightly, with London gold at $4,125.67/oz. ADP data showed a decline in US private - sector jobs, and there were various inventory changes. Suggest buying at the lower support [2]. - **Silver**: Suggest reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and weak ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply was tight, and short - term demand was weak. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract price decreased by 0.30%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. In the traditional consumption off - season, prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to overseas supply concerns [3]. - **Alumina**: The main contract price decreased by 0.46%. Supply was stable, and demand was high. The market is in an oversupply situation, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - **Zinc**: The main contract price decreased by 0.11%. Supply was tight domestically but increased overseas. Consumption was in the off - season. Suggest selling short at high prices [4]. - **Lead**: The main contract price decreased by 0.06%. Supply was stable, and demand improved slightly. Suggest interval operation [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 1.18%. Supply was supported by polysilicon, and demand was stable. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and consider buying at low prices [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price decreased by 0.8%. Supply increased slightly, and demand increased significantly. It is expected to go into de - stocking in November. Suggest buying at low prices cautiously and consider selling put options [4]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price decreased by 3.33%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. The November storage platform progress is uncertain. Suggest waiting and seeing [5]. - **Tin**: Prices were oscillating strongly. The market priced in the US government reopening, and ADP data boosted the Fed's rate - cut expectation. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Treat it with an oscillating mindset in the short term [5]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract price increased by 2 yuan/ton. Inventory decreased, and demand improved marginally. Supply decreased significantly. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 2,990 - 3,040 yuan/ton [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton. Supply decreased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 740 - 770 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price decreased by 37.5 yuan/ton. Supply was stable, and demand was weak. Suggest waiting and seeing, with a reference range of 1,230 - 1,280 yuan/ton [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell slightly. Supply was stable, and demand improved. The global inventory is expected to remain high. US soybeans are strong, and domestic ones are relatively strong. Short - term focus on the USDA report, and medium - term depends on tariff policies and production [7]. - **Corn**: Futures prices continued to rise. Inventory was low, and demand was strong. New production is expected to increase, and costs will decrease. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Suggest waiting and seeing [7]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased by 0.04%. Globally, supply is expected to be in surplus, and domestically, the market rebounded due to news. Suggest shorting in the futures market and selling call options [7]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic prices oscillated downwards. Supply increased, and demand was stable. Suggest waiting and seeing, with an interval strategy of 13,400 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian market rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand increased. Near - term inventory is accumulating, and long - term production is expected to decrease seasonally. Suggest a reverse spread strategy and focus on production and policies [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices were weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. After Double Eleven, prices are expected to oscillate in an interval [8]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly. Supply was abundant, and demand was expected to increase seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - **Apples**: The main contract price increased by 0.76%. Supply was affected by quality and timing, and demand was optimistic. Suggest waiting and seeing [8]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [9]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply pressure was large. PX was in balance, and PTA was slightly de - stocking. Suggest taking profit on long positions and shorting processing fees in the long term [10]. - **Rubber**: The main contract price increased by 0.33%. Raw material prices were stable, and inventory increased. Suggest an oscillating operation [10]. - **PP**: Prices oscillated slightly. Supply increased, and demand decreased. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [10]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a medium - low level. Demand entered the off - season. Suggest shorting at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose. Supply faced risks from Russian oil and OPEC+ production, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short at high prices if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day [11]. - **Styrene**: Prices fell slightly. Supply and demand contradictions were large. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, suggest shorting at high prices or reverse - spreading [11].

Core Points - The U.S. Senate has passed a temporary budget bill to end the federal government shutdown that has lasted over 40 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [1][3] - The shutdown has caused significant disruptions across various sectors, particularly affecting low-income families and federal employees [4][5] Group 1: Economic Impact - Millions of low-income families have had their food assistance benefits cut, and over 670,000 federal workers have been furloughed, with approximately 730,000 forced to work without pay [4] - The aviation industry has been severely impacted due to a shortage of air traffic controllers, leading to widespread flight cancellations and delays, which in turn affects commercial and tourism sectors [5] - The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the prolonged shutdown could reduce the annual GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points by Q4 2025 [5] Group 2: Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's monthly survey indicates that the U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to 50.3, the lowest level since June 2022, with 62% of respondents reducing discretionary spending due to the shutdown [6] Group 3: Political Stalemate - The shutdown stems from a political deadlock between the two parties over subsidies related to the Affordable Care Act, with Democrats advocating for an extension and Republicans opposing it [7] - Attempts by moderate lawmakers to seek compromise solutions have been hindered by a lack of trust, making any short-term agreements uncertain [7] - Historical context shows that since 1976, the U.S. has experienced 20 funding gaps leading to 10 formal shutdowns, with the nature and frequency of these events evolving over time [9][10][11]

根据自动数据处理公司（ADP）的统计，在截至10月25日的四周内，美国私营部门平均每周减少约1.1万个 就业岗位。就业增长的放缓意味着企业在招聘上的信心下降，也可能对居民消费支出造成影响。这些因素 叠加，使市场对美国经济增长的持续性产生一定担忧。 在政策预期方面，市场关注的焦点集中于美联储官员的最新讲话。多位政策制定者计划在当日稍后发表言 论，投资者希望从中获得关于未来利率走向的信号。 若言论偏向鹰派，强调通胀风险仍需关注，美元可能继续受到支撑；若讲话更偏鸽派，暗示加息周期接近 尾声甚至可能出现降息倾向，美元指数则可能承压回落。交易员普遍认为，美联储的措辞细节将在很大程 度上左右美元的短期波动方向。 情绪回稳后，美元面临基本面考验 美元指数（DXY）在亚洲交易时段小幅走高，报约99.55。 市场普遍认为，美元的上涨主要受到美国政府停摆风险缓解的影响。 随着投资者预期政府资金法案有望通过，市场避险情绪下降，美元对主要货币的汇率出现回升，短线走势 呈现温和上扬。 美元指数的波动通常受到多重因素影响，包括美国宏观经济数据、财政政策进展及美联储货币政策预期。 当前，美国政府停摆结束的预期成为推动短期行情的关键。美国参 ...

·光大期货：黄金本轮反弹持续性有待观察 ·国投期货表示，隔夜贵金属震荡盘中波动较大。ADP发布数据显示，在截至10月25日的四周内美国企 业平均每周裁员11250人，是2023年3月以来最大的月度就业降幅。关注美国结束政府停摆进展，市场继 续权衡经济和美联储政策前景。贵金属暂时缺少强劲驱动，或继续震荡盘整，国际金价关注4150美元／ 盎司阻力。 ·光大期货表示，隔夜伦敦现货窄幅震荡，金银比降至80.7附近。美国ADP就业数据显示，10月ADP私营 部门就业人数减少4.5万，创两年半来最大降幅消息方面，就业数据的萎靡提振了美联储降息预期。昨 晚市场在逐步消化美政府预期将重新开门的利好后，美股重新表现低迷，这也加重了市场担忧，黄金一 度冲高回落，但就业数据发布后，降息预期再次提振金价。地缘政治方面，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示， 俄美双边对话仍在继续，但进展速度不及预期。国内黄金新政引发市场热议，从结果导向来看国内黄金 首饰价格已出现较大幅度上涨，国内消费者需要一个适应过程，因此短期对国内黄金首饰需求的抑制作 用毋庸置疑，这或逐步体现在黄金实物需求上，从供求角度看并不有利。黄金本轮反弹持续性有待观 察，后市走势仍不明朗 ...

燃料油： 1、基本面：新加坡交易员表示，高硫燃料油下游需求一直保持稳定，但近期新加坡市场接收了来自中东的增量 供应，导致市场供应过于充裕，高硫燃料油下游溢价开始承压；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油361.65美元/吨，基差为-10元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为448.52美元/吨，基差为18 元/吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月5日当周库存为2106.9万桶，增加14万桶；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空增，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多增，偏多 6、预期：美国政府停摆有望结束带动市场风险偏好回升，盖过供应过剩担忧，国际油价收盘续涨，俄罗斯能源 出口担忧预期开始逐步提升，后续部分对燃油有一定支撑。FU2601：2690-2730区间运行，LU2601：3300-3340 区间运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-12燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其 ...

张尧浠：众多美联储官员讲话来袭、金价维持看涨反弹预期 上交易日周二(11月11日)：国际黄金震荡收涨，虽有一定的反弹见顶预期，但仍在中轨等均线上方，多头占据优势，基本面上也无明显利空因素，故此， 短期仍将继续维持看涨反弹，等待触及4250美元附近。 日内无关注的数据及事件，将留意美盘时段一系列的美联储官员讲话，包括 FOMC永久票委、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话。2026年FOMC票委、费城 联储主席保尔森就金融科技发表讲话。美联储理事沃勒参加第九届金融科技年度会议。以及美国财长贝森特发表讲话。 还有次日1点15分，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克将发表讲话；美联储理事米兰将参加活动； 关注其整体讲话对于政策和经济前景的言论对金价产生的走势影响。 根据之前他们的讲话整体偏鸽，都支撑进一步降息来看，预计晚间大概率将会再度利好金价，因而，日内操作将继续以低多看涨为主。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4115.74美元/盎司，先行走强，于午间录得日内高点4148.65美元，之后遇阻并维持在20美金区间内持续盘整，延续到美盘初 时段连续走低录得日内低点4097.25美元，最终触底回升，收于4126.73美元，日振幅51.4美元， ...

"美联储的降息节奏仍存在不确定性。"赵复初分析道，根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降 息25个基点的概率为64.1%，远低于此前的90%。短期内美国就业下行和通胀风险依然存在，且经济下 行压力不大，降低了12月继续降息的急迫性。美国ISM制造业PMI连续8个月处于萎缩区间，需求与就 业持续走弱，但服务业景气度尚可；ADP就业数据超预期反弹，一年期通胀预期持续反弹，且持续高于 美联储目标水平，这些因素都压制了降息空间。 "另外，尽管美国政府'停摆'即将结束，但通胀和就业数据需要较长时间才能正常公布，这导致美联储 无法获得足够的数据来判断是否降息，叠加政府支出或持续释放6月以来短债融资的7000亿美元资金， 在美元流动性充裕的情况下，滞胀风险持续上升，美联储降息节奏可以适当放缓。预计美联储接下来更 倾向于用其他政策工具对资金面进行呵护，而非机械性降息。"赵复初称。 本周，金银价格强势反弹。11月11日，伦敦金现货价格重回4140美元／盎司一线，伦敦银现货价格重新 站上51美元／盎司。内盘方面，截至下午收盘，沪金期货价格涨超2%，沪银期货价格涨超3%。 对此，东证期货宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，黄金市 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

这是11月10日在美国首都华盛顿拍摄的美国国会大厦。新华社记者胡友松摄该法案将按现有水平为大部分联邦机构提供资金至2026年1月30日，并为农业 部、退伍军人事务部及军事建设项目，以及国会运作提供整个财政年度的经费。根据该法案，"补充营养援助计划"将获得全年资金。这一针对低收入群体的 福利项目暂时"断粮"日前引发各方担忧。 另外，该法案还推翻了政府"停摆"期间大规模解雇联邦雇员的决定，并确保本财年剩余时间内不再发生此类事件。法案还承诺，所有联邦雇员在"停摆"期间 的薪资都将得到补发。 参议院多数党领袖、共和党人约翰·图恩则向民主党人承诺，最迟在12月第二周，将就延长即将于年底到期的《平价医疗法案》加强型补贴进行投票。 00:16 新华社北京11月11日电 美国国会参议院10日晚正式通过一项临时拨款法案，为联邦政府重新开门迈出关键一步。该法案后续将交由众议院表决，若表决通 过，将送交总统特朗普签署成法，从而结束美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府"停摆"。 他们谈妥了什么 10日晚，参议院以60票支持、40票反对的结果通过这一法案。 据美联社报道，最先打破谈判僵局的是3名前州长——新罕布什尔州民主党籍参议员珍妮·沙 ...

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals rose. The positive progress in the US government shutdown negotiation is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is beneficial to the release of short - term liquidity. After the official data is released, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driver and may continue to build a high - level shock platform. The international gold price should focus on the resistance around $4150 per ounce [1] Other Key Points US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review [1] - The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan: The possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut should be made [2] - Fed's Musalem: The labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling. The room for further policy easing is limited. Caution must be exercised [2] - Fed's Daly: There is no inflation pressure from labor costs. Policymakers need to keep an open mind about further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Agreement News - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to lower tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not determined [2] - Trump: Close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year - on - year. Imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [2]