据悉，当地时间周三，美国众议院投票通过了为"停摆"期间断供的食品援助项目注资、为数十万联邦雇员补发工资、恢复空中 交通管制系统正常运行的拨款法案。 在众议院以222对209票通过这项法案后，持续43天、创历史纪录的美国联邦政府"停摆"即将正式结束，该法案将送交美国总统 特朗普签署。 目前，两党仍在为联邦医保补贴问题争执不休。据报道，面对民主党人的激烈反对，特朗普的支持在很大程度上保住了共和党 的团结。而令民主党人愤怒的是，他们在参议院的同事所发起的长期对峙未能达成延长联邦医疗保险补贴的协议。 周三公布的一项民意调查显示，50%的美国人将政府关门归咎于共和党，而47%的人归咎于民主党。 回溯过往脉络，2025年10月1日，美国联邦政府正式"停摆"，随后75万名雇员被迫休假或无薪工作，美国航空运营受到严重影 响，大量民众无法获得关键政府补贴。 持续43天的美国政府"停摆"即将终结。 当地时间周三，美国众议院以222票赞成、209票反对通过了结束政府"停摆"的法案。 美国白宫随即表示，特朗普将于美国东部时间今晚9点45分（北京时间今日上午10:45）在椭圆形办公室签署临时拨款法案，正 式终结"停摆"。 【导读】美众 ...

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to end the government shutdown, which lasted for 43 days, marking the longest shutdown in U.S. history [2][3][5] - The bill includes funding for food assistance programs, back pay for federal employees, and the restoration of air traffic control operations [5] - A recent poll indicated that 50% of Americans blame the Republican Party for the shutdown, while 47% blame the Democratic Party [5] Group 1 - The House voted 222 in favor and 209 against the bill to end the shutdown, which will be signed by President Trump [3][5] - The shutdown began on October 1, 2025, affecting 750,000 employees and disrupting essential government services [5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the six-week shutdown would reduce the actual GDP growth rate by 1.5 percentage points for the quarter [7] Group 2 - Approximately half of the GDP loss is expected to be recovered in early next year as federal projects resume and government employees receive back pay [7] - The shutdown resulted in the delay of numerous official data releases, impacting economic assessments [8]

Core Points - The U.S. House of Representatives is set to vote on a spending bill to end a record-long government shutdown that has lasted 43 days since October 1, affecting hundreds of thousands of federal employees and causing significant disruptions in various sectors [1][4] - The shutdown has led to delays in flights, hindered the release of key economic data, and threatened food assistance for millions of families, with national parks and museums also closed [1][5] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce fourth-quarter GDP by 1.5 percentage points, resulting in a net loss of approximately $11 billion [1][5] Legislative Developments - The bill includes a controversial provision allowing senators to claim $500,000 if their phone records were collected without their knowledge, which has sparked bipartisan backlash [2][3] - Some Republican lawmakers plan to propose separate legislation to repeal this provision after the government reopens [3] - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated that Democrats will continue to push for an extension of healthcare subsidies, indicating that the legislative battle is not over [3] Government Operations - The government will require several days to fully restart operations after the bill is passed and signed by the President, with some agencies potentially not resuming until the following week [4] - Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy indicated that flight restrictions would begin to be lifted within a week of the government reopening, coinciding with the Thanksgiving travel peak [4] Economic Impact - The economic impact of the shutdown is expected to be significant, with estimates suggesting that each week of the shutdown costs the economy between $10 billion and $15 billion [6] - While back pay will be issued to federal employees, the process of recalculating salaries may take time, and some costs associated with the shutdown will be irrecoverable [5][6] - The shutdown has also delayed the release of important economic data, creating a potential data gap that could distort future economic forecasts [6]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with no signs of compromise between the two parties despite ongoing negotiations [1][3] - The core issue of contention is healthcare subsidies, with both parties entrenched in their positions, leading to a stalemate [4][10] - The White House has indicated that furloughed federal employees may not receive automatic back pay, a departure from past practices, which has intensified the political pressure [5][18] Group 1: Legislative Developments - The Senate has repeatedly failed to pass temporary funding bills, with both Republican and Democratic proposals being rejected [4][10] - The Republican plan aims to resume government operations without extending healthcare subsidies, while the Democratic plan seeks to extend pandemic-era healthcare subsidies until 2026 [4][10] - The lack of a viable bipartisan negotiation framework has resulted in a battle of endurance rather than constructive dialogue [4][10] Group 2: Economic Impact - The shutdown has led to significant operational disruptions, including delays at major airports due to air traffic controller shortages and a halt in IPO approvals by the SEC [6][11] - The SEC has reported that over 90% of its employees are on leave, which could severely impact market activities and corporate financing [6][11] - Economic models suggest that the shutdown could result in approximately $15 billion in GDP losses per week, raising concerns about long-term financial stability [13][18] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - Analysts predict three possible scenarios: a quick resolution within 5-10 days, a prolonged stalemate lasting 2-3 weeks, or a worst-case scenario extending up to a month [11][12][13] - A quick resolution is seen as likely due to mounting economic pressures and public sentiment, which could force a compromise [11][18] - If the impasse continues, it may lead to significant political and economic repercussions, including a potential credit rating downgrade [13][18] Group 4: Political Dynamics - Public opinion is expected to play a crucial role in influencing the negotiations, particularly as federal employees face financial strain [17][18] - Market sentiment is also shifting, with concerns about regulatory gaps and data availability affecting financial sectors [17][18] - Internal divisions within both parties may create opportunities for compromise, as moderate Republicans and some Democrats express the need for fiscal constraints [17][18]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Ministry of Finance reported that high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian exports are expected to reduce Brazil's GDP by 0.2 percentage points from the baseline scenario between August 2025 and December 2026 [1] - Without policy intervention, the tariff impact is projected to result in the loss of approximately 138,000 jobs, primarily in the industrial and service sectors [1] - Inflation is expected to rise slightly, adding pressure to the overall economic performance [1] Economic Measures - The Brazilian government plans to mitigate external shocks through a series of measures under the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan," including export credit support, tax deferral, and expanded public procurement [1] - These measures are anticipated to reduce the GDP loss to 0.1 percentage points and stabilize employment and inflation expectations [1] Tariff Details - In April, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on Brazilian steel and aluminum products, followed by an additional 40% tariff in August, resulting in total tax rates of up to 50% on certain goods [1] - The tariffs affect non-metallic minerals, metal products, machinery, electronics, furniture, and agricultural products [1] Export Impact - Brazil's total exports to the U.S. are projected to be $40.3 billion in 2024, accounting for 12% of total exports, with approximately $16.4 billion of goods subject to the 50% tariff [1] - Many affected products are primarily exported to the U.S. market, indicating significant potential impacts on related industries [1]