Group 1 - Market reaction to Trump's proposed 200% tariff on imported drugs has been minimal, with European pharmaceutical stocks showing little change [1] - Analysts suggest that investors view the tariff threat as mere rhetoric, with the perception that Trump often backs down from such proposals [1] - Capstone's analysis indicates that a 200% tariff could lead to significant drug shortages in the U.S., as brand-name manufacturers would face increased import costs and generic manufacturers might exit the market [1] Group 2 - Several pharmaceutical companies have announced large-scale investment plans in the U.S., including Novartis with $23 billion, Roche with $50 billion, Eli Lilly with $27 billion, and Johnson & Johnson with over $55 billion [3] - UBS analyst Matt Weston notes that the timeline of 18 months is insufficient for relocating manufacturing to the U.S., typically requiring 4-5 years for commercial-scale production [3] - European pharmaceutical companies are less likely to be affected by the tariffs, as many conduct at least the final manufacturing stages in the U.S. [3] Group 3 - Ireland is projected to be the largest exporter of pharmaceuticals to the U.S. in 2024, with exports valued at $50 billion, followed by Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, and India [5] - Singapore has prioritized pharmaceutical supply chains in trade negotiations with the U.S., with discussions planned for later this month [5] - India heavily relies on the U.S. market, exporting $27.9 billion worth of pharmaceuticals, with nearly one-third going to the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to impose "very high" tariffs, potentially up to 200%, on imported pharmaceuticals, which could significantly increase drug prices in the U.S. [1][3] - Pharmaceutical companies have expressed strong opposition to the tariffs, warning that they may raise costs, hinder investment in the U.S., disrupt supply chains, and pose risks to patients [1][3] - The specifics of the tariff implementation are expected to be announced by the end of the month, with a grace period of one to one and a half years for companies to adjust [1][3] Group 2 - The tariffs are intended to encourage pharmaceutical companies to relocate production to the U.S., but new manufacturing facilities may take 5 to 10 years to become operational [3][4] - Major pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and Eli Lilly, have indicated that the threat of tariffs is already affecting their investment decisions in R&D and manufacturing in the U.S. [3][4] - The U.S. imported over $200 billion worth of pharmaceuticals in 2023, with 73% coming from Europe, primarily Ireland, Germany, and Switzerland [5] Group 3 - The majority of active pharmaceutical ingredient production has shifted to countries like China due to lower labor and production costs, leading to a significant decline in U.S. manufacturing capacity [5] - Approximately 90% of prescription drugs in the U.S. are generic medications, and imposing tariffs on these lower-margin products could drive some generic manufacturers out of the U.S. market, exacerbating shortages of essential drugs [5]

Core Viewpoint - Barclays analysts indicate that the proposed tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceuticals in the U.S. could significantly impact the pharmaceutical industry, leading to increased production costs, reduced profit margins, and potential supply chain disruptions, ultimately resulting in higher drug prices for consumers [1] Group 1 - The proposed tariffs may lead to drug shortages in the U.S. market [1] - The high tariffs could compress profit margins for pharmaceutical companies [1] - A transition period of up to 18 months may be granted to companies to adjust before the tariffs are implemented, which could be a positive factor for the industry [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Pharmaceutical Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pharmaceutical sector, particularly the impact of tariffs on innovative drugs and the performance of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Impact of Tariffs on Innovative Drugs - Innovative drugs are minimally affected by tariffs due to the "borrowing ship" model, which allows companies to avoid customs duties by licensing patents to U.S. firms [2]. - For example, even with a 100% tariff on certain oncology products from Hehuang Pharmaceutical, the valuation impact is only 1% to 2% [1][2]. Future Development of Innovative Drug Sector - The future growth of the innovative drug sector relies heavily on business development (BD) logic. The second half of 2025 may see a divergence in market performance, with companies that can deliver on BD continuing to rise, while those that cannot may face declines [3][4]. - A significant increase in conflict of interest agreements is expected in 2025, which will transition into service contracts requiring about two quarters to digest, indicating sustained BD activity throughout the year [4]. Export Dynamics - China's exports of pharmaceutical products to the U.S. are relatively low, with medical devices and diagnostic reagents making up over 30% of total exports, while ordinary drugs account for less than 20% [5]. Performance of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The TCM market is showing signs of improvement in Q2 2025, with the high base effect from Q1 diminishing. The third quarter is expected to see accelerated performance due to a lower base from the previous year’s anti-corruption measures in healthcare [6]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaoli Pharmaceutical, which has a high degree of certainty in procurement and performance completion [6]. Biopharmaceutical Sector Stability - The biopharmaceutical sector, particularly vaccines and blood products, is expected to maintain stable growth. Investors are encouraged to focus on the long-term potential of these companies based on their existing business foundations [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - The overall valuation in the innovative drug sector is currently around three times price-to-sales (PS) ratio, with expectations to correct to five times PS, indicating significant upside potential [4]. - Retail performance for TCM products is strong, with notable sales growth for products like Ma Ying Long hemorrhoid ointment and Yunnan Baiyao's Qi Xue Kang [6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the pharmaceutical sector, highlighting the resilience of innovative drugs against tariffs, the promising outlook for TCM, and the stability of the biopharmaceutical industry.

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. President Trump announced that drug tariffs are imminent, indicating a shift in trade policy that could impact pharmaceutical companies and the broader healthcare industry [1] Group 1: Trade Agreements - The European Union has not yet proposed a fair trade deal, which may lead to continued tensions in trade negotiations [1] - There is a possibility of reaching an agreement with Japan, although the Japanese side is described as "tough" in negotiations [1] - Canada may enter into a separate agreement regarding the "Iron Dome" project, which could have implications for defense contractors and related industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump regarding the imminent implementation of drug tariffs indicates a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, particularly affecting the pharmaceutical industry [1] Industry Impact - The introduction of drug tariffs is expected to impact pricing strategies within the pharmaceutical sector, potentially leading to increased costs for consumers and healthcare providers [1] - Companies may need to reassess their supply chains and pricing models in response to the new tariffs, which could affect profit margins and market competitiveness [1] Company Implications - Pharmaceutical companies operating in the U.S. may face challenges in maintaining their market positions due to the added financial burden from tariffs [1] - The potential for increased regulatory scrutiny and compliance costs could further complicate operations for these companies [1]

戴文睿警告称，对利润率远低于品牌药的仿制药征收关税，可能会迫使一些仿制药企业彻底退出美国市 场，这可能会导致或加剧美国某些仿制药的短缺，例如医院常用的无菌注射剂。 当天特朗普还表示，他将在未来两周内宣布针对药品的关税。对进口药品征收关税可能大幅推高美国药 品的价格。但白宫预计，目前在美国新建的药品生产设施可能需要5到10年时间才有望投产。 一些制药公司开始抵制特朗普的计划。辉瑞公司CEO艾伯乐（Albert Bourla）上周表示，关税威胁正在 阻碍辉瑞进一步在美国进行研发和制造方面的投资。礼来公司CEO戴文睿（Dave Ricks）也表示，他并 不认为关税能解决围绕美国药品供应链的"国家安全"担忧。 近几十年来，美国制药行业的制造规模大幅萎缩。FDA表示，大部分所谓药品活性成分的生产已转移到 中国和其他国家，这主要是因为劳动力和其他生产环节的成本较低。 戴文睿也指出，包括抗生素和升压药等老牌仿制药的生产并不容易，但价格低廉，基本已经不在美国生 产。数据显示，美国约90%的处方药是这类基础药品。 咨询公司安永分析显示，2023年，美国进口了价值超过2000亿美元的药品，其中73%来自欧洲，主要是 爱尔兰、德国 ...

路透看到的一份报告显示，如果美国对进口药品征收25%的关税，美国药品成本每年将增加近510亿美 元，如果转嫁出去，美国药品价格将上涨12.9%。报告日期为4月22日，未公开发表，由美国药品研究 与制造企业协会(PhRMA)委托撰写。 ...

赛诺菲(SNY.US)第一季度利润超预期，其重磅皮肤科和哮喘药物Dupixent的强劲需求功不可没。财报显 示，赛诺菲一季度营收为98.9亿欧元，同比下降5.4%，超出预期1.2亿欧元；经项目调整后的每股收益 为1.79欧元(合2.03美元)，高于分析师预估的1.67欧元。 首席财务官弗朗索瓦-格扎维埃.罗杰在电话会议上表示，赛诺菲正考虑加大美国药品产能投资，以满足 未来生产需求和客户需求。他补充说，近年来公司已持续提高在美国本土的制药份额。 包括罗氏控股和诺华制药在内的欧洲竞争对手，近期已承诺在特朗普总统可能对医药进口产品加征新关 税前，向美国投资数百亿美元。 赛诺菲当季99亿欧元销售额中有近半数来自美国市场，凸显其对全球最大医药市场的依赖。得益于 Dupixent销售额增长20%至35亿欧元(略超分析师预期)，公司季度总营收超出市场预估。 制药企业正严阵以待美国破坏性关税，这可能迫使企业承担进口成本上升压力或选择提高药品价格。美 国政府已启动对医药进口产品的调查，将决定对该行业加征关税的幅度。 这家法国制药商重申了全年业绩指引，称已考虑美国关税和全球经济不确定性的潜在影响。2025年，赛 诺菲预计销售额将 ...

美国总统特朗普：不久的将来会有药品关税。 ...