Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed stable expectations and orderly transactions in July 2025, with non-bank sector cross-border receipts at historical highs [1][2] - The net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high operational level [1][2] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Foreign Exchange - In July, banks settled foreign exchange with a total of 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, representing month-on-month increases of 12% and 16% respectively [1] - The exchange settlement rate for enterprises and individuals slightly increased, while the selling rate remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In July, the scale of bank customer foreign-related receipts reached 690.4 billion USD, with payments of 698.1 billion USD, resulting in a slight deficit of 7.7 billion USD, reflecting a balanced cross-border fund flow [2] - Cumulative surplus for the first seven months was 119.5 billion USD, indicating a continued net inflow of cross-border funds [2] Group 3: Market Resilience and Economic Development - Despite increased volatility in the international foreign exchange market, the steady progress of high-quality economic development in China and the enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support stable market operations [2]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1][2] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Foreign Exchange Data - In July 2025, banks in China settled a total of 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, with cumulative settlements from January to July reaching 1,376.8 billion USD and sales at 1,379.3 billion USD [1] - The bank's foreign exchange income for clients in July was 690.4 billion USD, while payments amounted to 698.1 billion USD, leading to cumulative foreign exchange income of 4,551 billion USD and payments of 4,431.5 billion USD from January to July [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Expectations - In July, the bank's settlement and sales volumes increased by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month, continuing a surplus trend with a scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained generally stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure at historical highs, achieving a near balance [2] - Net inflows from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [2] Group 4: Economic Support Factors - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [2]

Core Insights - The overall cross-border capital flow in China remained stable in July, with non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals experiencing high levels of cross-border income and expenditure, resulting in a basic balance [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high operational level [1] - Net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend distributions [1] Financial Market Performance - The foreign exchange market in China operated smoothly in July, with bank settlement and sale volumes increasing by 12% and 16% month-on-month, respectively [1] - The settlement and sale of foreign exchange continued to show a surplus, amounting to 22.8 billion USD [1] - The settlement rate for enterprises and individuals slightly increased, while the sale rate remained stable, indicating orderly market expectations and transactions [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached historical highs in July, with a balanced income and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Support - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market since July 2023 [1] Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Cross-Border Capital Flows - Overall, cross-border capital flows remained stable, with non-bank sectors' cross-border income and expenditure at historical highs, achieving a near balance [1] - Net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Economic Context - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations in July 2025, despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable increase in both bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors remained at historical highs, with a balanced revenue and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has strengthened in the first half of the year, with significant surpluses in both bank foreign exchange settlement and cross-border payments, indicating a stable outlook for the market in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus reached 85.2 billion USD, and the surplus for cross-border payments was 83.4 billion USD, primarily driven by high surpluses in goods trade and direct investment [2]. - The foreign exchange settlement rate increased slightly, with a rate of 66% for customer purchases from banks, up 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - The foreign exchange deposit balance for enterprises remained stable at 695.1 billion USD, with a settlement rate of 67%, which is an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Derivatives and Risk Management - The scale of enterprises using foreign exchange derivatives for risk management grew by 29% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the growth rate of foreign exchange settlement, raising the hedging ratio to 26%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [3]. - The foreign exchange reserve stood at 3.0713 trillion USD at the end of June, with fluctuations in value due to the rising dollar index and falling prices of major financial assets [3]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in Chinese Bonds - Despite recent international market volatility, foreign investment in Chinese bonds is expected to continue steadily, with foreign holdings of Chinese bonds remaining stable and accounting for over 50% by central bank institutions [4][5]. - By the end of 2021, China had attracted nearly 820 billion USD in cross-border bond investments, representing about one-third of the total external bond investment in emerging markets [4]. Group 4: Support for Enterprises in Managing Exchange Rate Risks - The foreign exchange bureau is actively supporting enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, in managing exchange rate risks by reducing hedging costs and enhancing their risk management capabilities [7][8]. - In the first half of the year, enterprises utilized foreign exchange derivatives to manage risks amounting to 755.8 billion USD, with nearly 17,000 new enterprises engaging in hedging, most of which are small and medium-sized [8].

美联储年内第4次加息"靴子落地"。当地时间7月27日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布加息75个基点，将 联邦基金利率目标区间上调到2.25%至2.5%之间。这也是美联储连续第二次加息75个基点。 专家表示，要珍惜当前通胀相对温和及发达国家紧缩政策掣肘较小的时间窗口，推动前期稳增长政 策加快落地见效。货币政策要继续发挥总量和结构双重功能，落实好稳企业保就业各项金融政策措施， 聚焦支持小微企业和困难行业。同时，还要兼顾内外平衡，密切关注主要发达经济体货币政策调整，关 注物价走势变化，支持粮食、能源生产保供，防范输入性通胀风险，保持物价总体稳定。 在近日举行的2022年上半年外汇收支数据新闻发布会上，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人王春 英强调，更有信心也更有条件有效化解美联储货币政策调整对中国跨境资金流动的影响，中国外汇市场 有望延续平稳运行态势。我国综合实力更雄厚，可以更好发挥吸收外部冲击的能力。随着各项稳增长政 策的落地见效，未来中国经济会逐步恢复，保持平稳增长。我国国际收支结构更加稳健，可以更好保障 跨境资金流动的稳定性和安全性。我国推进更高水平的对外开放，可以更好地拓展外汇市场的深度和广 度。更有能力吸纳或平滑跨 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of the end of August 2022, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,054.9 billion, reflecting a decrease due to factors such as exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes, despite a stable balance in domestic foreign exchange supply and demand [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves decreased in August 2022, influenced by the rising US dollar index and overall decline in global financial asset prices [1] - The foreign exchange reserves were reported at $3,054.9 billion as of August 2022 [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows were described as rational and orderly, with domestic foreign exchange supply and demand remaining fundamentally balanced [1] - The trade surplus for August was reported at $79.39 billion, a decrease of $21.88 billion from July but still a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1] Group 3: Economic Environment - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, with heightened downward pressure on the global economy and significant volatility in international financial markets [1] - China's effective coordination of pandemic control and economic development, along with the implementation of a comprehensive economic stabilization policy, is expected to support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1]

Group 1 - The enthusiasm of international investors in China's bond market continues to rise, with foreign net purchases of domestic bonds nearing $80 billion in the first half of 2024, marking the second-highest value for the same period in history [1] - As of the end of June, the scale of bonds held by foreign investors in the interbank market reached a record high of 4.31 trillion yuan, with 1,133 foreign institutional entities participating in the market [1] - The main types of bonds being increased by foreign investors include interbank certificates of deposit, policy financial bonds, and government bonds, as the comprehensive returns from investing in RMB bonds are higher than those from US Treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The comprehensive yield for foreign investors buying 1-year Chinese government bonds and signing a 1-year forward contract is 5.85%, significantly higher than the 4.36% yield on 1-year US Treasury bonds [2] - The hedging properties of RMB bonds are also a reason for the increase in foreign investment, with RMB bonds showing low correlation with yields from G7 countries and other emerging economies [2] - The current stage of foreign capital inflow into RMB bonds is seen as preliminary, with expectations for a richer variety of domestic bond holdings as the infrastructure of the domestic credit bond market improves [2] Group 3 - China's foreign trade continues to show a positive trend, with a high surplus in goods trade and orderly recovery in service trade, contributing to a stable cross-border capital flow [3] - The overall economic operation in China is stable, with a GDP growth of 5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supporting the expectation of continued stability in cross-border capital flows [3] - The resilience of the foreign exchange market and improved risk management capabilities of enterprises are expected to help maintain rational and orderly foreign exchange transactions [3]