12月19日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年11月，银行结汇14840亿元人民币，售汇13732亿元人 民币。结售汇继续保持顺差，差额有所收敛。 国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌在答记者问中指出，当前我国外贸外资保持韧性，跨境资金流 动和外汇市场预期平稳，外汇交易稳健有序. 今年前11个月，银行结售汇差额、银行代客涉外收付款差额均保持顺差。 银行结售汇已连续7个月实现顺差 国家外汇管理局最新披露，2025年1~11月，银行累计结汇162781亿元人民币，累计售汇155932亿元人 民币。 按美元计值，2025年11月，银行结汇2095亿美元，售汇1938亿美元。2025年1~11月，银行累计结汇 22769亿美元，累计售汇21804亿美元。 2025年11月，银行代客涉外收入46372亿元，对外付款45112亿元。2025年1~11月，银行累计代客涉外收 入511208亿元人民币，累计对外付款497719亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年11月，银行代客涉外收入6545亿美元，对外付款6367亿美元。2025年1~11月，银行 累计代客涉外收入71481亿美元，累计对外付款69594亿美元。 记 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported stable foreign exchange settlement and sales in November, with a surplus of 15.7 billion USD, remaining consistent with October levels [1] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In November, cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled 1.3 trillion USD, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border capital flow surplus was 17.8 billion USD, lower than the average surplus of 24 billion USD in September and October [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment - Goods trade continues to be the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows remain stable [1] - Recent trends indicate that capital flows under securities investment have become more stable [1] Group 3: Market Stability - Overall, China's foreign trade and foreign investment demonstrate resilience, with cross-border capital flows and foreign exchange market expectations remaining stable [1] - Foreign exchange transactions are reported to be steady and orderly [1]

Core Insights - In October 2025, China's banks reported a foreign exchange settlement surplus of $17.7 billion, with total settlements of $214.2 billion and sales of $196.5 billion [1][2] - From January to October 2025, cumulative settlements reached $2,067.5 billion, while cumulative sales totaled $1,986.6 billion [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained a stable operation, with a balanced supply and demand [1][2] - The surplus in October showed a month-on-month narrowing, indicating a more balanced settlement and sales activity [1] - The average monthly surplus for cross-border receipts and payments over the two months was $24 billion, with a high level of net inflow from trade in goods [1] Group 2 - The fluctuations in the international financial market have increased, with a general rise in the US dollar index [1] - Seasonal factors, such as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, contributed to a slight net outflow of funds from non-bank sectors in September, but there was an increase in net inflows in October [1] - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international financial market has seen increased volatility since October, but China's foreign exchange market remains stable with a balanced supply and demand [2] Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In September, there was a slight net outflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals due to the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - In October, there has been an increase in net inflows of cross-border funds, leading to an average monthly surplus of $24 billion over the two months [2] - The net inflow of funds from goods trade remains high, while seasonal declines in cross-border expenditures such as outbound travel and foreign enterprise dividends have been observed [2] Group 2: Market Stability - The foreign exchange market in China continues to operate steadily despite the fluctuations in the international financial market [2] - The overall cross-border capital flow remains stable, indicating resilience in the market [2]

Group 1 - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure in China reached 11.6 trillion USD in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a historical high for the same period [2][4] - This figure represents a year-on-year growth of 10.5% compared to the previous year [4] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was 119.7 billion USD, and the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 63.2 billion USD, both exceeding the levels of the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown stable operation and expectations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality throughout the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - In May, the overall balance of foreign exchange supply and demand in China remained stable, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In May, the net inflow of funds from goods trade remained at a high level, and foreign investment in domestic stocks increased compared to the previous month [1] - The foreign exchange statistics showed that in May, banks settled 192.7 billion USD and sold 181.4 billion USD [1] - The foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales turning into a surplus [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - The net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors was 33 billion USD [1] - The overall outflow from service trade, foreign investment enterprise dividends, and direct foreign investment remained stable [1] - The foreign exchange income for clients was 622.7 billion USD, while foreign payments amounted to 589.7 billion USD [1] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Context - Market expectations remained stable in May, with a rational and orderly trading environment [1] - The demand for foreign exchange purchases decreased, while the willingness of enterprises and individuals to settle foreign exchange remained stable [1] - The overall economic situation in China is stable and progressing, providing strong support for the healthy operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - In June, the uncertainty of US trade policy continued to ease, and Sino-US economic and trade consultations made new progress. With the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar index continued to decline with an enlarged decline, the RMB bilateral exchange rate gradually appreciated, and the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. This helps enhance the competitiveness of China's export products, but attention should be paid to the international community's attention and even speculation on China's currency issues [2]. - Against the backdrop of the easing of Sino-US economic and trade conflicts in June, the net inflow of cross - border funds slowed down, mainly due to the small net outflow of securities investment and the expansion of the net outflow scale of income and current transfers. However, thanks to the strong resilience of China's foreign trade exports, the surplus of goods trade receipts and payments increased month - on - month, reaching a record high for the same period, and continued to play a stabilizing role in cross - border capital flows [2]. - In June, bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange showed a surplus for the fourth consecutive month, and the surplus scale expanded month by month. In May and June, the market's on - the - spot settlement willingness and purchase motivation both decreased, and the purchase motivation was relatively stable, indicating that the market's expectation of the RMB exchange rate continued to diverge, and the demand for foreign exchange purchase at low prices was relatively strong [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Exchange Rate Situation - In June, the US trade policy uncertainty continued to ease, and Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved new progress. After the leaders' phone call on June 5, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London from June 9 - 10, reaching a principled framework, and on June 27, the details of the framework were further confirmed [3]. - In June, the US dollar index continued to decline since February, dropping to 96.8 at the end of the month, a new low since March 2022. The monthly decline expanded from 0.2% last month to 2.7%, with a cumulative decline of 2.0% in late June. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased. The market expected the probability of three interest rate cuts by the Fed within the year to exceed 50% [4]. - In June, the RMB exchange rate continued to appreciate slowly. The appreciation of the central parity rate expanded from 0.2% last month to 0.4%, while the appreciation of on - shore and off - shore spot exchange rates narrowed from 0.9% last month to 0.4% and 0.7% respectively. The divergence of the "three prices" of the RMB exchange rate continued to converge [4]. - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the RMB exchange rate index referring to the BIS currency basket fell for the sixth consecutive month, with the month - on - month decline expanding from 0.2% and 0.5% last month to 0.6% and 0.9% respectively; the RMB exchange rate index referring to the SDR currency basket turned from rising to falling, with a month - on - month decline of 0.9% [5]. 2. Cross - border Capital Flows - In June, the surplus of banks' foreign - related receipts and payments on behalf of customers continued for the fifth consecutive month, but the surplus scale decreased by $7.7 billion month - on - month to $25.3 billion. The RMB foreign - related receipts and payments on behalf of customers turned from a surplus of $2.6 billion last month to a deficit of $21.6 billion, contributing 316% to the narrowing of the surplus. The foreign - currency foreign - related receipts and payments on behalf of customers continued to have a surplus, increasing by $16.6 billion month - on - month to $47 billion, a new high since October last year [10]. - In June, securities investment foreign - related receipts and payments turned from a surplus of $5.2 billion last month to a deficit of $5.6 billion. Overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of RMB bonds, with the balance of bonds held decreasing by 116.1 billion yuan, an increase of 19.8 billion yuan from last month. However, foreign investors' willingness to increase their holdings of domestic stocks increased. In the first half of the year, foreign investors net - increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, and the net - increase scale in May and June reached $18.8 billion [11][12]. - In June, the deficit of income and current transfers expanded for the fourth consecutive month to $26.9 billion. The surplus of goods trade foreign - related receipts and payments increased by $7.6 billion month - on - month to $66.8 billion, reaching a record high for the same period. The deficit of service trade narrowed for the fifth consecutive month to $8.1 billion, the lowest since July 2023. The deficit of direct investment narrowed for the second consecutive month to $2.7 billion, the lowest since November last year [12]. 3. Bank Settlement and Sales of Foreign Exchange - In June, bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange (including forward and options) showed a surplus for the fourth consecutive month, and the surplus scale increased by $6.7 billion month - on - month to $32.1 billion. The surplus of bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange on behalf of customers increased by $8.3 billion to $25.6 billion, the deficit of banks' own settlement and sales of foreign exchange narrowed for the second consecutive month, and the net purchase scale of forward and options foreign exchange derivatives continued to decline [20]. - From May to June, the surplus of banks' foreign - currency foreign - related receipts and payments on behalf of customers and the surplus of bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange on behalf of customers continued to expand, and the gap between them widened. The market's overall settlement willingness and purchase motivation both decreased, indicating that the market's expectation of the RMB exchange rate continued to diverge, and the demand for foreign exchange purchase at low prices was relatively strong [21]. - In June, the settlement willingness of foreign trade enterprises and the household sector increased, and the purchase motivation decreased. The forward settlement hedging ratio ended its five - month upward trend, and the forward purchase hedging ratio stopped falling and rebounded, indicating that relevant market players' exchange rate expectations were biased towards depreciation [25].