Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the Chinese yuan (RMB) exchange rate amid uncertainties in U.S. trade policy and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, highlighting the impact on cross-border capital flows and the overall economic environment [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Trends - In July, the RMB exchange rate continued to show narrow fluctuations, with the CFETS RMB index and BIS currency basket index rising by 1.5% and 1.8% respectively, ending a six-month decline [1] - The SDR currency basket index also reversed a previous decline of 0.9% to increase by 1.5% [1] - Despite these increases, the three major exchange rate indices fell by 4.6%, 4.3%, and 3.2% respectively in the first seven months of the year, indicating that the RMB's passive appreciation has not adversely affected export competitiveness [1] Currency Market Dynamics - The RMB central parity rate strengthened for the third consecutive month in July, while the onshore spot exchange rate fell by 0.4% to around 7.19 [2] - The average deviation between the central parity and onshore spot rates increased from 0.1% to 0.3%, the highest in three months [2] - The average onshore exchange rate rose by 0.1% to 7.1727, marking the third consecutive month of appreciation [2] Cross-Border Capital Flows - In July, banks recorded a foreign exchange payment deficit of $7.7 billion, with the RMB payment deficit increasing to $43.3 billion, the third highest on record [3] - The foreign currency payment surplus decreased to $35.6 billion, but remained historically high [3] - The main contributor to the deficit was securities investment, which accounted for 160% of the shift from surplus to deficit [3] Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks has increased, while there has been a significant reduction in holdings of RMB-denominated bonds, leading to record high outflows [2][3] - The reduction in bond holdings is attributed to a narrowing of forward dollar discounts, which decreased the attractiveness of RMB bond investments [3] Forward Exchange Transactions - In July, banks recorded a surplus in forward foreign exchange transactions for the fifth consecutive month, with a surplus of $45.6 billion, the highest in five months [4] - The increase in surplus was primarily driven by foreign exchange derivatives transactions, which rose by $16 billion [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The article indicates that the market does not exhibit strong expectations for RMB appreciation despite previous trends, suggesting a potential for slight depreciation pressure on the currency [2][5] - The overall supply of foreign exchange in the domestic market is believed to be greater than the reported surplus, indicating a more complex market dynamic [5]

管涛、刘立品（管涛系中银证券全球首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事） 摘 要 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性，但市场反应弱化，美元指数止跌回升，在岸人民币时点汇率有所回调，均值汇率则继续走强，但市场 主体并未积累补涨预期。 7月份，跨境资金转为小幅净流出，外资对股票资产兴趣增强，但远期美元贴水幅度大幅收窄导致外资减持人民币债券规模创下历史新高，跨境人民币和 证券投资支出规模均刷新历史纪录。 7月份，银行结售汇顺差继续扩大，市场主体囤积和抢购外汇动机减弱，金融机构境内外汇存款余额从月度"七连升"转为下降。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 8月15日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年7月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对7月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元指数止跌回升，人民币汇率明弱实强，市场主体并未积累补涨预期 7月份，美国关税政策继续增加全球贸易不确定性。在4月2日宣布"对等关税"、4月9日暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收"对等关税"90天之后，特朗普于7月7日宣 布延长"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日；7月31日签署行 ...

Core Insights - In July, banks in China reported a settlement of 16,700 billion yuan and a sale of 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange transactions [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 12% in settlement and 16% in sales, resulting in a surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - Cross-border capital flows have been generally stable, with non-bank sectors maintaining high levels of income and expenditure, leading to a balanced flow [1] Group 1 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high operational level [1] - The net outflow of funds from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] - The overall foreign exchange market is characterized by stable expectations and active trading, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sale rate among enterprises and individuals [1]

国家外汇管理局8月15日公布的2025年7月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据显示，7月外汇市场预 期和交易平稳有序，非银行部门跨境收支规模处于历史高位。7月货物贸易资金净流入环比增长33%， 继续保持高位运行。 7月以来，美元指数反弹后回落，非美货币随之波动调整。在此背景下，当月银行结售汇表现平稳，延 续顺差态势，体现出我国企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。数据显示，7月银行结汇2336亿 美元，售汇2108亿美元，环比分别增长12%和16%。据国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍， 7月企业、个人等主体结汇率环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。 近年来，企业汇率风险中性意识不断提高，人民币跨境交易稳步增长。今年上半年，企业外汇套期保值 比率、货物贸易项下人民币跨境收支占比均达到30%左右，均创历史新高。李斌对此曾表示，外汇风险 敞口降低，有助于市场保持理性交易。 今年7月，反映企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金流动情况的银行代客涉外收支规模稳步增加，并处于 历史高位。其中，银行代客涉外收入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元，小幅逆差77亿美元，收支基本 平衡。前7个月， ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations in July 2025, despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable increase in both bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange. Group 1: Market Performance - In July, bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors remained at historical highs, with a balanced revenue and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

央视网消息：据国家外汇管理局网站消息，国家外汇管理局公布2025年7月银行结售汇和银行代客涉外 收付款数据。 按美元计值，2025年7月，银行结汇2336亿美元，售汇2108亿美元。2025年1-7月，银行累计结汇13768 亿美元，累计售汇13793亿美元。 国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年7月，银行结汇16700亿元人民币，售汇15070亿元人民币。2025 年1-7月，银行累计结汇98835亿元人民币，累计售汇99020亿元人民币。 2025年7月，银行代客涉外收入49357亿元人民币，对外付款49909亿元人民币。2025年1-7月，银行代客 累计涉外收入326705亿元人民币，累计对外付款318116亿元人民币。 按美元计值，2025年7月，银行代客涉外收入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元。2025年1-7月，银行代 客累计涉外收入45510亿美元，累计对外付款44315亿美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, despite extreme tariff pressures, the RMB exchange rate quickly stabilized and rebounded after a brief adjustment, while the multilateral exchange rate continued to weaken. The passive appreciation of the RMB under a weak dollar index should not be overly concerning [3][5][6]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - In April, the RMB exchange rate initially fell due to the impact of Trump's tariffs but rebounded quickly, with the onshore RMB rate at 7.2632 and offshore RMB rate at 7.2689 by the end of the month, reflecting a depreciation of 0.2% and 0.1% respectively compared to the previous month [5][6]. - The RMB nominal effective exchange rate index fell by 2.2% in April, which was greater than the 1.4% decline in the dollar index, indicating a broader weakening of the RMB against other currencies [6][7]. - The RMB's actual effective exchange rate weakened due to inflation differentials, which helps maintain the price competitiveness of Chinese exports [7]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital continued to show net inflows, with a historical high of $630 billion in goods trade surplus in April, despite pressures in securities investment [10][11]. - In April, foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $109 billion, indicating a strong interest in RMB-denominated assets, supported by effective government measures [11][12]. - The net outflow in securities investment was $125 billion, but this was less than the average monthly outflow of $284 billion from October 2024 to January 2025, suggesting limited pressure on cross-border capital outflows [11][12]. Group 3: Market Responses and Government Actions - The Chinese government implemented a series of financial support policies and counter-tariff measures, which helped stabilize market expectations and maintain foreign investment interest in RMB assets [12][10]. - The Central Huijin Investment Company announced plans to increase holdings in ETFs and quality stocks, reinforcing market confidence [12]. - The willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange transactions increased, with a surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements rising from $63 billion to $166 billion in April [16][17].

外汇局：4月银行结汇15408亿元人民币 售汇15715亿元人民币 智通财经5月19日电，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，2025年4月，银行结汇15408亿元人民币，售汇 15715亿元人民币。2025年1-4月，银行累计结汇53373亿元人民币，累计售汇57815亿元人民币。按美元 计值，2025年4月，银行结汇2139亿美元，售汇2182亿美元。2025年1-4月，银行累计结汇7429亿美元， 累计售汇8048亿美元。 ...