[ 简单比较，当前银行购汇均价较前期供汇均价升值约1.2%，符合"低买高卖"的特征，加之人民币/美元 还是负利差（2年期和10年期中美国债收益率差负值仍有2个多百分点）。可见，银行在当前价位回补之 前"垫付"的美元空头并非不理性。 ] 2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）逆势上涨。自 2025年3月起，反映境内主要外汇供求关系的银行即远期（含期权）结售汇（下称"银行结售汇"）已连 续6个月顺差，持续时间为2021年8月以来最长。市场上，关于前期境内市场主体因人民币单边下行而持 有外汇，现受升值预期影响可能大举结汇的传闻不绝于耳。然而，目前尚未从数据上获得支持。 购汇意愿下降驱动外汇供求关系逆转 2005年"7·21"汇改以来，境内外汇供求与人民币汇率走势大概可分为以下六个阶段：（1）2014年6月之 前，境内外汇总体供大于求，人民币涨多跌少，面临单边升值压力；（2）2014年7月至2017年底，境内 外汇总体供不应求，人民币跌多涨少，面临单边贬值压力；（3）2018年初至2020年5月，在中美经贸摩 擦和世纪疫情冲击的背景下，境内外汇总体供不应求，人民币继续面临下 ...

银行在当前价位回补之前"垫付"的美元空头并非不理性。 2025年，面对极限关税施压，人民币汇率（如非特指，本文均指人民币对美元双边汇率）逆势上涨。自2025年3月 起，反映境内主要外汇供求关系的银行即远期（含期权）结售汇（下称"银行结售汇"）已连续6个月顺差，持续时 间为2021年8月以来最长。市场上，关于前期境内市场主体因人民币单边下行而持有外汇，现受升值预期影响可能 大举结汇的传闻不绝于耳。然而，目前尚未从数据上获得支持。 购汇意愿下降驱动外汇供求关系逆转 2005年"7·21"汇改以来，境内外汇供求与人民币汇率走势大概可分为以下六个阶段：（1）2014年6月之前，境内 外汇总体供大于求，人民币涨多跌少，面临单边升值压力；（2）2014年7月至2017年底，境内外汇总体供不应 求，人民币跌多涨少，面临单边贬值压力；（3）2018年初至2020年5月，在中美经贸摩擦和世纪疫情冲击的背景 下，境内外汇总体供不应求，人民币继续面临下行压力；（4）2020年6月至2023年6月，受益于国内经济率先复苏 和汇率弹性增加，境内外汇总体供大于求，人民币先涨后跌、双向波动；（5）2023年7月至2025年2月，在中美经 ...

Core Viewpoint - In August, the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut strengthened, leading to a depreciation of the US dollar and an increase in the appreciation momentum of the Chinese yuan, while market expectations remained generally stable [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The US dollar index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2%, influenced by weaker employment data and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1]. - The yuan's central parity rate appreciated for the fourth consecutive month, with an average daily appreciation of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and an accelerated average daily appreciation of 51 basis points in late August [2]. - By the end of August, the central parity rate and onshore and offshore yuan exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month [2]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In August, banks recorded a surplus of $3.2 billion in foreign exchange payments, reversing a deficit of $7.7 billion from the previous month, with foreign currency payments contributing significantly to this surplus [10]. - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, indicating increased foreign interest in Chinese equity assets [11]. - The overall net purchase of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors amounted to approximately $39 billion, dominating the inflow into emerging market investment portfolios [11]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Supply and Demand - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus narrowed to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness of market participants to settle foreign exchange [16]. - The ratio of foreign exchange receipts to payments fell to 52.6%, the lowest in five months, while the payment-to-purchase ratio rose to 62.0%, the highest in seven months, suggesting a lack of accumulated expectations for yuan appreciation [16][18]. Group 4: Trade and Investment Trends - The surplus in goods trade payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting a slowdown in export revenue collection [15]. - Direct investment payments recorded a deficit of $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years, indicating a slowdown in capital inflows [12].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 24 日 相关研究报告 《2022 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率大起 大落，彰显外汇市场韧性》20230201 《2023 年外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续 调整，境内外汇供求和跨境资金流动生变》 20240123 《2024 年外汇市场分析报告：汇率维稳目标顺 利完成，境内外汇供求缺口扩大》20250123 《1 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率双向波 动，外汇供求缺口继续扩大》20250221 《2 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率延续双向 波动，外汇供求缺口收窄》20250321 《3 月外汇市场分析报告：特朗普关税政策加 码，银行结售汇差额转正》20250424 《4 月外汇市场分析报告：极限关税施压无碍银 行结售汇顺差扩大》20250521 《5 月外汇市场分析报告：中美贸易冲突缓和， 人民币汇率压力明显缓解，银行结售汇顺差继 续扩大》20250622 《6 月外汇市场分析报告：人民币汇率升值行情 延续，银行结售汇顺差继续扩大》20250725 《7 月外汇市场分析报告：汇率延续窄幅波动， 跨境资金流动生变》20250822 中银国际证 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：凭澜观涛） 分析师：管涛（中银证券全球首席经济学家） 分析师：刘立品（中银证券宏观分析师） 研报发布时间：2025年9月24日 摘 要 8月份，美联储降息预期强化，叠加市场对美联储独立性担忧加剧，促使美元重新转弱，人民币汇率升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定。 8月份，跨境资金转为净流入，主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响，外资对中国股票资产兴趣增强。 8月份，银行结售汇顺差收窄，市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强，表明人民币汇率加速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化，再次说明市场 主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 风险提示：地缘政治风险超预期，主要央行货币政策调整超预期，国内经济复苏不如预期。 正文 9月19日，国家外汇管理局发布了2025年8月外汇收支数据。现结合最新数据对8月份境内外汇市场运行情况具体分析如下： 美元重新转弱，人民币升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定 美元指数重回下行态势。8月1日，美国劳工部公布的7月非农就业数据不及市场预期，叠加此前两个月数据大幅下修，导致美联储9月降息概率陡升。伴随 着就业市场走弱，8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克 ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB [1] - From January to August 2025, banks cumulatively settled 113,938 billion RMB and sold 113,078 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, banks settled 2,118 billion USD and sold 1,971 billion USD in August 2025 [1] - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, banks settled 15,886 billion USD and sold 15,765 billion USD [1] Foreign Exchange Income and Payments - In August 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 45,515 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,284 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, banks had foreign-related income of 372,219 billion RMB and foreign payments of 363,400 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, banks recorded foreign-related income of 6,383 billion USD and foreign payments of 6,350 billion USD in August 2025 [1] - Cumulatively from January to August 2025, banks had foreign-related income of 51,893 billion USD and foreign payments of 50,665 billion USD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the stable operation of China's foreign exchange market in August 2025, with active trading and a basic balance in supply and demand [4] - In August 2025, banks settled 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB, while the cumulative settlement from January to August reached 113,938 billion RMB and cumulative sales were 113,078 billion RMB [1][2] - The non-bank sector's cross-border receipts and payments reached 1.3 trillion USD in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, indicating steady development in cross-border trade and investment activities [4] Group 2 - In August, banks recorded a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 3.2 billion USD, with a surplus of 14.6 billion USD in bank settlement and sales [4] - The net inflow from goods trade remained stable, while foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds showed a net inflow, and service trade and investment income saw a decrease from seasonal highs [4]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China showed stable operation in August, with active trading and balanced supply and demand [2] Group 1: Bank Settlement Data - In August, banks settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB [1] - From January to August, cumulative bank settlements reached 113,938 billion RMB, while cumulative sales were 113,078 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, banks settled 2,118 billion USD and sold 1,971 billion USD in August [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, bank settlements totaled 15,886 billion USD, and sales amounted to 15,765 billion USD [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Payments - In August, banks recorded foreign income of 45,515 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,284 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, foreign income reached 372,219 billion RMB, while foreign payments totaled 363,400 billion RMB [1] - In USD terms, foreign income in August was 6,383 billion USD, and foreign payments were 6,350 billion USD [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, foreign income amounted to 51,893 billion USD, and payments were 50,665 billion USD [1] Group 3: Market Activity and Trends - Non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, engaged in cross-border receipts and payments totaling 1.3 trillion USD in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [2] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments saw growth, indicating steady development in trade and investment [2] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was 32 billion USD in August, with a bank settlement surplus of 14.6 billion USD [2] - Overall, the foreign exchange market is characterized by active trading and stable market expectations [2]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China is operating smoothly, with active trading observed in August 2025 [1] - In August 2025, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, conducted cross-border receipts and payments totaling $1.3 trillion, marking an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - The overall balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market is maintained, with a net inflow of $3.2 billion and a surplus of $14.6 billion in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1] Group 2 - In August 2025, banks recorded foreign-related income of 45,515 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,284 billion RMB [2] - Cumulative foreign-related income for the first eight months of 2025 reached 372,219 billion RMB, while cumulative foreign payments totaled 363,400 billion RMB [2] - In dollar terms, banks' foreign-related income in August 2025 was $6,383 billion, with payments amounting to $6,350 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is currently stable, with a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to 3.2 billion USD and a surplus of 14.6 billion USD in bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange in August 2025, indicating a balanced supply and demand in the market [1] Summary by Sections Foreign Exchange Market Overview - In August, the foreign exchange market maintained overall balance, with a net inflow of cross-border funds of 3.2 billion USD and a bank settlement surplus of 14.6 billion USD, reflecting stable market expectations [1] - The bank's foreign exchange settlement reached 211.8 billion USD, while sales amounted to 197.1 billion USD, continuing the surplus trend [1] Cross-Border Fund Flows - The scale of bank customer foreign exchange receipts and payments reached 1.3 trillion USD in August, a year-on-year increase of 8%, indicating sustained high levels of activity [1] - Both current and capital account cross-border receipts and payments saw growth, with stable development in cross-border trade and investment financing [1] Specific Transactions - In August, bank customer foreign exchange income was 638.3 billion USD, while payments were 635 billion USD, resulting in a slight surplus and a balanced overall account [1] - The net inflow from goods trade remained stable, while foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds showed a net buying trend [1]