【资讯导读】 ·中国外汇市场平稳运行跨境资金流动趋稳 ·美国财长乐观展望2026年经济前景 ·纽约联储主席：暂无降息紧迫性 ·日本央行加息至30年高点释放紧缩信号 ·全球市场步入"圣诞休市周" 【市场资讯】 ·国家外汇局数据显示，11月银行结售汇顺差为157亿美元，与10月基本持平；跨境收支顺差178亿美 元，略低于9–10月平均240亿美元水平。近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳，显示外汇市场运行总体 稳健。 ·美国总统特朗普签署行政令，明确要求确保美国"太空优势"：2028年前实现载人重返月球，2030年前 建成月球前哨站初步架构，并部署月面核反应堆，同时探索在太空中部署核武器的可能性。 ·美国财政部长贝森特表示，通胀正稳步向美联储2%目标靠拢，预计2026年将成为经济增长与通胀走势 同步改善之年。他指出，随着政府职位精简，整体经济状况有望进一步优化。 ·纽约联储主席威廉姆斯强调，基于最新就业与通胀数据，当前并无再次降息的紧迫需求，进一步巩固 市场对美联储短期内暂停降息的预期。 ·美联储理事哈马克表示，未来数月无需调整利率，倾向在春季前保持政策稳定。她认为中性利率可能 高于市场普遍预期，并强调当前更需关注顽 ...

"11月份以来，国际金融市场延续较高波动态势，美元指数总体走弱，主要非美货币表现偏强。我国外 汇市场继续保持平稳运行。"谈及11月份以来我国外汇市场运行情况，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发 言人李斌表示，一是外汇市场供求延续基本平衡。11月份，银行结汇和售汇规模均保持稳定，结售汇顺 差157亿美元，与10月份基本相当。二是跨境收支保持活跃。11月份，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收 入和支出合计为1.3万亿美元，环比增长8%，跨境收支顺差178亿美元，低于9月份至10月份平均240亿 美元的水平。分项目看，货物贸易仍是主要的资金净流入渠道，服务贸易、投资收益、直接投资项下资 金流动保持稳定，近期证券投资项下资金流动更趋平稳。总体看，当前我国外贸外资保持韧性，跨境资 金流动和外汇市场预期平稳，外汇交易稳健有序。 本报记者 刘 琪 12月19日，国家外汇管理局公布2025年11月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。数据显示，按美 元计值，2025年11月份，银行结汇2095亿美元，售汇1938亿美元。2025年1月份至11月份，银行累计结 汇22769亿美元，累计售汇21804亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年11月份 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is accelerating the new round of capital market reform and opening up to better serve the economy's continuous recovery [1][2] - The People's Bank of China announced adjustments to the 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in August, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with a net inflow of cross-border funds of 3.2 billion USD [2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Transport has issued a plan for building high-quality data sets in the transportation sector, focusing on various business areas including infrastructure and green low-carbon initiatives [3] - The China Financial Futures Exchange announced the listing of several stock index futures and options contracts on September 22, 2025, with specific benchmark prices set for each contract [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business, allowing for repurchase under certain market conditions to stabilize market fluctuations [4] Group 3 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to August 2025, the number of newly established foreign-invested enterprises increased by 14.8%, while the actual use of foreign capital decreased by 12.7% [5] - Tianpu Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price increase for 13 consecutive trading days, raising significant trading risks and deviating from the company's fundamentals [6] - Zhongke Tongda announced the termination of a major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on core terms with the counterparty [6] Group 4 - Xibu Materials announced a major asset restructuring plan for its subsidiary, with stock suspension starting September 22 [6] - Qixin Group's controlling shareholder plans to transfer 36.07 million shares, reducing its stake in the company [7] - Santong Cable's controlling shareholder has increased its stake to become the largest shareholder after a series of stock transactions [8] Group 5 - Longda Food has decided to abandon the acquisition of a stake in a subsidiary due to high debt levels and a focus on its core food business [9] - Baoli International's board approved an investment in semiconductor testing equipment, reflecting confidence in the industry [10] - CITIC Securities reported that Hong Kong stocks showed signs of recovery in the first half of the year, with positive growth in net profit margins and return on equity [10]

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August, banks settled 113,938 billion RMB and sold 113,078 billion RMB [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In August, banks recorded foreign-related income of 45,515 billion RMB and foreign payments of 45,284 billion RMB [1] - From January to August, the cumulative foreign-related income was 372,219 billion RMB, while cumulative foreign payments reached 363,400 billion RMB [1] Group 2: Market Stability and Trends - SAFE's spokesperson Li Bin indicated that the foreign exchange market operated smoothly in August, with active trading and a balanced supply-demand situation [1] - Cross-border receipts and payments from non-bank sectors grew by 8% year-on-year, totaling 1.3 trillion USD in August [1] - Net inflow of cross-border funds was 3.2 billion USD, with a surplus of 14.6 billion USD in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange [1]

Core Insights - In August 2025, China's foreign exchange market operated smoothly, with a surplus in bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange amounting to $14.6 billion and a net inflow of cross-border funds of $3.2 billion [2][3] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In August 2025, banks settled foreign exchange amounting to 15,103 billion RMB and sold 14,058 billion RMB, resulting in a cumulative settlement of 113,938 billion RMB and a cumulative sale of 113,078 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign exchange settlement in August 2025 was $2,118 billion, while the sale was $1,971 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $15,886 billion for settlement and $15,765 billion for sale [1] - The foreign exchange market saw active trading, with non-bank sector cross-border receipts reaching $1.3 trillion in August, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In August 2025, the bank's foreign-related income was 45,515 billion RMB, with outflows of 45,284 billion RMB, leading to cumulative foreign-related income of 372,219 billion RMB and outflows of 363,400 billion RMB from January to August 2025 [1] - The foreign-related income in August 2025 was $6,383 billion, while outflows were $6,350 billion, with cumulative figures from January to August 2025 being $51,893 billion for income and $50,665 billion for outflows [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds in August 2025 was $3.2 billion, with stable net inflows from trade and overall net purchases of domestic stocks and bonds by foreign investors [2]

Market Overview - US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.08% and the S&P 500 down 0.29%, while the Nasdaq fell 0.4%. Both the Dow and S&P 500 reached intraday historical highs at one point [4] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Intel rising approximately 3%, while Tesla fell over 1% [4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.74% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell collectively, with WTI crude oil down 1.28% to $63.14 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.05% to $66.14 per barrel [5] - Spot gold rose slightly by 0.01% to $3335.28 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell 0.04% to $3381.70 per ounce [4] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China emphasized the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [7] - The report highlighted the importance of maintaining liquidity and promoting reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [7] Trade Relations - China filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization against Canada regarding import restrictions on steel and other products, criticizing Canada's unilateral and protectionist measures [9] Corporate Developments - Xiaopeng Motors announced an expanded strategic cooperation with Volkswagen on electronic and electrical architecture, which will enhance their competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [18] - JD.com completed the acquisition of Hong Kong's Jia Bao Supermarket, aiming to enhance its retail presence in the Greater Bay Area [22] - Intel is reportedly in talks with the Trump administration regarding a potential investment in the company to support its new factory plans in Ohio [21] Financial Market Movements - China Ping An increased its stake in China Life Insurance, surpassing 5% ownership, indicating confidence in the insurance sector's future [21] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that China's foreign exchange market remained stable, with a surplus in bank settlement and sales [10] Industry Innovations - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of futures and options for coated printing paper, marking a significant development in the financial derivatives market for cultural paper [11]

Core Insights - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, indicating a stable foreign exchange market despite increased volatility in international currency markets [1][1][1] - The foreign exchange market in China maintained a surplus of 22.8 billion USD in July, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month [1][1][1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market showed stable operations with active trading, as evidenced by a slight increase in the settlement rate and stable sales rate among enterprises and individuals [1][1][1] - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure reaching historical highs, indicating a balanced inflow and outflow [1][1][1] - Net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high operational level [1][1][1] Group 2 - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1][1][1]

Core Insights - In April, there was a net inflow of cross-border capital amounting to 17.3 billion USD from non-bank sectors such as enterprises and individuals [1] - The resilience of China's foreign trade contributed to a net inflow of 64.9 billion USD in goods trade, maintaining a high level [1] - Foreign investment in RMB assets remains strong, with a net increase of 10.9 billion USD in domestic bonds and a shift to net buying in domestic stocks by foreign investors in late April [1] Summary by Categories Cross-Border Capital Flows - The overall cross-border capital showed a net inflow of 17.3 billion USD in April, driven by non-bank sectors [1] - The net inflow from goods trade was 64.9 billion USD, indicating robust foreign trade performance [1] Foreign Investment - Foreign investors increased their holdings in domestic bonds by 10.9 billion USD in April, reflecting a positive sentiment towards RMB assets [1] - In late April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, signaling a shift in investment strategy [1] Market Conditions - The banking sector reported a total of 213.9 billion USD in foreign exchange settlements and 218.2 billion USD in foreign exchange sales in April [1] - The foreign exchange market showed stability, with a settlement rate of 64.4% and a sales rate of 65.4%, both indicating a balanced market expectation [1] - The overall foreign exchange supply and demand remained basically balanced, with active market transactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange situation in China has shown resilience amidst complex external challenges, with positive trends in foreign investment and a stable currency exchange rate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) in equity reached $31.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1][3]. - Net inflows of foreign securities investment were approximately $33 billion, reversing the net outflow trend observed in the second half of the previous year [1][3]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, marking a turnaround from the net reduction seen over the past two years [4]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [2]. - Market expectations for the RMB remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation anticipated [2][6]. Group 3: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has shown steady growth, maintaining a reasonable balance, while the non-reserve financial account has recorded a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3][6]. - In the first half of the year, net inflows of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend from the second half of the previous year [3]. Group 4: Foreign Asset Allocation - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated bonds has increased, with holdings exceeding $600 billion, reflecting a historically high level [4]. - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is currently between 3% and 4%, indicating potential for stable and sustainable growth in foreign asset allocation [4]. Group 5: Policy Environment and Market Resilience - The financial market's high-quality development has created a favorable policy environment for foreign investment in China [5]. - The Chinese economy's robust fundamentals and ongoing high-level opening-up policies are expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [6][7]. - The RMB's market-oriented formation mechanism has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external pressures and maintain supply-demand balance [7].

Core Insights - The external environment has become increasingly complex and variable since 2025, with rising unilateralism and protectionism, leading to a slowdown in global economic and cross-border trade growth [1] - China's macro policies are being implemented more actively to expand domestic demand and effectively respond to external challenges, resulting in overall stable economic operation and continued consolidation of high-quality development [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's foreign exchange receipts and payments showed several characteristics: steady increase in foreign-related receipts and payments, continued net inflow of cross-border funds, basic balance in foreign exchange market supply and demand, active foreign exchange market trading, and stable foreign exchange reserve scale [1] - The foreign exchange market has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining overall stability [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment in RMB Assets - Since 2025, foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [2] - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing the net selling trend of the past two years [2] - The proportion of foreign investors holding domestic bonds and stocks is approximately 3% to 4%, with expectations for gradual and sustainable growth in foreign investment in RMB assets supported by a stable macro environment and high-quality financial market development [2] Group 3: Innovation Policies in Free Trade Zones - The foreign exchange bureau plans to promote a series of innovative policies to more free trade pilot zones, focusing on expanding cross-border trade facilitation policies and advancing high-level openness in cross-border investment and financing [3] - Policies include optimizing international trade settlement, expanding the range of trade payment netting, and simplifying processes for cross-border trade [3] - These measures aim to enhance cross-border investment channels and improve financing efficiency, supporting foreign investment and high-level openness [3] Group 4: Outlook for the Foreign Exchange Market - The foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing market resilience [4] - The solid foundation for stable operation of the foreign exchange market is backed by a robust economic fundamental, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [5] - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth has increased, with final consumption and capital formation accounting for 77% of growth, up 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [5] Group 5: Resilience of the Foreign Exchange Market - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [6] - The market has accumulated rich experience in counter-cyclical regulation and has a robust reserve of policy tools to mitigate external risks [6] - The awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises has increased, with a historical high of 30% in both the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of RMB cross-border receipts and payments under goods trade [6]