每经编辑｜陈鹏程 王晓波 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，纳指跌0.4%，标普500指数跌0.29%，道指涨0.08%，其中，道指、标普500指数均一度创盘中历史新高；大型科技股涨跌不 一，英特尔涨约3%，奈飞、谷歌、亚马逊、Meta小幅上涨；特斯拉跌超1%，微软、苹果、英伟达小幅下跌。中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨 0.74%，迅雷涨超26%，蔚来涨近8%，哔哩哔哩、爱奇艺涨逾4%，理想汽车、小鹏汽车涨近2%。 现货黄金涨0.01%，报3335.28美元/盎司，本周累计下跌1.86%；COMEX黄金期货跌0.04%，报3381.70美元/盎司，本周累计下跌3.14%；COMEX白银期货跌 0.13%，报38.02美元/盎司，本周累计下跌1.35%。 国际油价集体收跌，美油主力合约跌1.28%，报63.14美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌1.05%，报66.14美元/桶。 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.07%报24359.3点，法国CAC40指数涨0.67%报7923.45点，英国富时100指数跌0.42%报9138.9点。 2 央行：落实落细适度宽松的货币政策 8月15日，央行 ...

Core Insights - In July, banks in China settled foreign exchange transactions amounting to 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, indicating a stable foreign exchange market despite increased volatility in international currency markets [1][1][1] - The foreign exchange market in China maintained a surplus of 22.8 billion USD in July, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month [1][1][1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market showed stable operations with active trading, as evidenced by a slight increase in the settlement rate and stable sales rate among enterprises and individuals [1][1][1] - Cross-border capital flows remained stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure reaching historical highs, indicating a balanced inflow and outflow [1][1][1] - Net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high operational level [1][1][1] Group 2 - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to support the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is actively working to mitigate external shock risks and maintain a stable and healthy foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate [1] - The agency is focused on optimizing foreign exchange policy supply and deepening reforms and opening up in the foreign exchange sector [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Facilitation - SAFE aims to enhance the convenience of cross-border trade and investment financing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange management authority indicates a net inflow of foreign capital into domestic stocks and a positive trend in foreign investment in Chinese assets, reflecting resilience in China's foreign trade and overall economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Inflows - In April, foreign capital investment in domestic stocks turned into net buying, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1]. - Non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, experienced a net inflow of $17.3 billion in cross-border funds in April [1]. - Foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $10.9 billion in April, maintaining a high level of interest in Chinese assets [1]. Group 2: Foreign Trade and Economic Indicators - China's foreign trade showed resilience, with a net inflow of $64.9 billion in goods trade, sustaining a high scale [1]. - The foreign exchange market demonstrated stability, with bank settlements and sales increasing by 12.8% and 13.9% month-on-month, respectively [2]. - The settlement rate for foreign exchange rose to 64.4%, up 6.9 percentage points, while the purchase rate increased to 65.4%, up 1.0 percentage point [2]. Group 3: Policy and Market Confidence - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and supporting the economy are expected to bolster market confidence and stabilize the foreign exchange market [2]. - The central government's measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, are designed to enhance support for the real economy [2]. - Progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. is anticipated to contribute to a healthier and more stable bilateral trade relationship [2].

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operations, supported by a recovering economy, stable international balance of payments, and enhanced market resilience [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Foreign Exchange Stability - China's economy is projected to continue its recovery, contributing to the stability of the foreign exchange market [2]. - The RMB has appreciated by 1.6% against the USD this year, with overall stability against a basket of currencies [3][8]. - The country's foreign trade shows strong resilience, with the current account surplus remaining at a reasonable level [3][8]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - There has been a significant increase in foreign investment, with net foreign holdings of domestic bonds at a high level and recent upticks in domestic stock purchases [3][8]. Group 3: Policy Innovations and Reforms - The government plans to enhance foreign exchange management reforms, improving the convenience of cross-border trade and investment [4][5]. - A robust evaluation mechanism for foreign exchange policies will be established to align with national development strategies and local realities [4]. - The optimization of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system aims to facilitate foreign financial institutions' investments in China [5]. Group 4: Safety and Security in Foreign Exchange Management - A more open, secure, and affordable foreign exchange management system will be developed, focusing on macro-prudential and micro-regulatory measures to maintain market stability [6]. - The government emphasizes the importance of risk management and regulatory capabilities to support high-quality development [6]. Group 5: Green Finance Initiatives - The introduction of pilot policies for green foreign debt aims to encourage qualified enterprises to utilize foreign debt for green projects [7].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will officially implement a third set of standards on the ChiNext board to support high-quality, unprofitable innovative companies to go public [2] - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing emphasized the acceleration of key measures for the opening up of the capital market, including optimizing access management and expanding the range of products available for foreign investment [3] - The CSRC will leverage the legislative authorization of the Pudong New Area to explore capital market system innovations, enhancing Shanghai's status as an international financial center [4] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will implement a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in the free trade pilot zone, including optimizing international trade settlement and expanding the Qualified Foreign Limited Partner (QFLP) pilot [5] - SAFE Vice Governor Zhu Hexiong stated that the foreign exchange market in China is expected to maintain stable operation, supported by a recovering economy and a balanced international payment situation [6] - There has been a notable increase in foreign investment in domestic bonds and stocks, with foreign net purchases of domestic bonds remaining high and recent increases in stock purchases [7]

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's foreign exchange market is expected to maintain stable operation, with enhanced resilience and maturity among participants [1] Group 1: Market Resilience - The foreign exchange market's resilience is anticipated to continue strengthening [1] - The proportion of enterprises engaging in foreign exchange hedging has increased to approximately 30% [1] - The share of cross-border RMB receipts under goods trade has also risen to around 30% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall balance of foreign exchange supply and demand in China remained stable in May, with a net inflow of cross-border funds continuing. Group 1: Cross-Border Fund Flows - In May, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached 33 billion USD [1] - The net inflow of trade-related funds remained at a high level, with foreign investment in domestic stocks increasing further compared to the previous month [1] - Outflows from service trade, foreign investment enterprise dividends, and direct investments abroad remained stable overall [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - In May, banks transitioned to a surplus in foreign exchange settlement and sales [1] - The willingness of enterprises and individuals to settle foreign exchange remained stable, while the demand for foreign exchange purchases decreased [1] - The current economic situation in China is characterized by overall stability and progress, which will continue to support the sound operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall cross-border capital flow in China showed a net inflow in April 2025, indicating resilience in foreign trade and a positive trend in foreign investment in RMB assets [2][3]. Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In April 2025, non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, experienced a net inflow of $17.3 billion [2]. - The net inflow from goods trade was $64.9 billion, maintaining a high level [2]. - Foreign investment in domestic bonds increased by $10.9 billion, reflecting a strong willingness to invest in RMB assets [2]. Group 2: Market Stability - The foreign exchange market showed balanced supply and demand, with bank settlement and sales increasing by 12.8% and 13.9% respectively [2]. - The settlement rate, indicating market willingness to settle, rose to 64.4%, an increase of 6.9 percentage points [2]. - The purchase rate, reflecting the willingness to buy foreign currency, increased to 65.4%, up by 1.0 percentage point [2]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Outlook - Recent policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and supporting the economy are expected to bolster market confidence [3]. - The implementation of monetary easing measures, such as interest rate cuts, is anticipated to further support the real economy [3]. - Progress in US-China trade talks and a reduction in bilateral tariffs are expected to contribute to a stable and sustainable development of economic relations [3].