商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉关键产区天气炎热，棉花短期观望为主 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 2 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area is growing steadily due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise encouragement. However, early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable target price subsidy policy has boosted cotton farmers' enthusiasm, leading to a slight increase in planting area, while the inland area has seen a continuous decline. With favorable climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg. Total cotton output is expected to be 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase from last year. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, with an expected consumption of 7.4 million tons (a 200,000 - ton decrease) and an import volume of 1.4 million tons (a 100,000 - ton decrease). Short - term outlook is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary Price and Spread - **External Quotes**: US sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged on June 7 - 8, 2025, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar prices in Nanning remained unchanged, while those in Kunming increased by 0.08%. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12%, and Xinjiang cotton prices remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. - **Spreads**: All sugar and cotton spreads remained unchanged from June 7 - 8, 2025 [3]. - **Basis**: All sugar and cotton basis values remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Import and Profit - **Import Prices**: The cotton cotlookA price increased by 0.32% from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: Sugar import profit remained unchanged from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Options and Volatility - **Options**: Implied and historical volatilities are provided for sugar and cotton options contracts [3]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.51%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.63% from June 5 - 6, 2025 [3]. Company Information - **Company Profile**: Cinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in domestic futures exchanges [9].

报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | -- ...

商品研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-25 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 17.31 | 17.31 | 0.00% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 66.06 | 66.06 | 0.00% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-23 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6155.0 | 6155.0 | 0.00% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5975.0 | 5970.0 | -0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | -0.01% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14550.0 | 14500.0 | -0.34% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-25 | 2025-05-26 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 31.43% | | | SR05-09 | -175.0 | -182.0 | 4.00% | ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 受助于美元微贬，白糖短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-05-26 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：由于糖料种植的经济效益显著，加上国家政策和制糖企业的积极支 持，农民的种植积极性有所提升，导致糖料种植面积稳步增长。然而，广西 早期的干旱天气对宿根甘蔗的出苗和新植甘蔗的种植产生了不利影响，从而 限制了食糖产量的增长。食糖消费量预期保持平稳或略有增加，食糖的供需 缺口基本稳定，进口量预期维持在 500 万吨不变。短期观望为主 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually starting, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $17.14 to $17.52, a 2.22% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.4 to $66.73, a 0.99% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,135 yuan, a 0.41% decrease; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,015 yuan to 5,985 yuan, a 0.50% decrease. The cotton index 328 rose by 0.25%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Overview**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and CF01 - 05 showed different degrees of change, with SR05 - 09 having the largest increase of 17.68%, and SR09 - 01 having the largest decrease of 10.14% [3] - **Import Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,401.5 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.1023, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 9.18; the implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1335, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 30,301 to 30,346, a 0.15% increase; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,172 to 11,269, an 0.87% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million yuan, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 期货研究报告 广西干燥天气引发担忧，郑糖短期支撑较强 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-24 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美国关键产区天气引忧虑，棉花短期观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-18 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar-producing regions (except Yunnan) have completed the sugar-cane crushing, and a recovery in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during festivals like May Day has boosted sugar demand and supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is gradually ramping up, but sugar output is uncertain due to weather factors. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of sugarcane and sugar beet in China, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Cotton consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 7.6 million tons, and imports have also dropped by 200,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Recently, higher temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally favorable for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price and Spread - **Foreign Futures Quotes**: On April 15 - 16, 2025, the price of US sugar futures rose from $17.43 to $17.73, a 1.72% increase; the price of US cotton futures rose from $66.13 to $66.3, a 0.26% increase [3] - **Spot Prices**: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,130 yuan, a 0.49% decrease; in Kunming, it dropped from 6,010 yuan to 5,990 yuan, a 0.33% decrease. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a 0.31% decrease, while the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged at 14,200 yuan [3] - **Spreads**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from April 15 - 16, 2025. For example, SR01 - 05 decreased by 0.81%, SR05 - 09 increased by 9.15%, and CF01 - 05 increased by 7.58% [3] Import and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.4 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,332 from April 15 - 16, 2025 [3] Options and Volatility - **Options**: For options such as SR509C5900, SR509P5900, CF509C12800, and CF509P12800, their implied volatilities and corresponding futures historical volatilities are provided. For example, SR509C5900 has an implied volatility of 0.1072, and the historical volatility of its underlying SR509 is 10.04 [3] Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipts**: From April 15 - 16, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27,410, while the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9,479 to 9,715, a 2.49% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a well - regulated and high - reputation large - scale futures company in China. It holds various memberships in major domestic futures exchanges [9]