Group 1: Sugar Core View - Indian production increase suppresses international sugar prices. The number of sugar mills in Yunnan, China, starting production has increased year-on-year, and the arrival volume of raw sugar outside the tariff quota is at the second-highest level in the past five years. The short-term price fluctuates strongly, with increasing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the movement of raw sugar [3]. Key Points - Sugar futures prices: SR01 closed at 5304 with a daily increase of 0.17% and a weekly decrease of 0.11%; SR03 closed at 5258 with a daily decrease of 0.51% and a weekly decrease of 0.55%, etc. [4] - Sugar price spreads: SR01 - 05 was 15, down 6 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week; SR05 - 09 was -11, down 6 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, etc. [4] - Sugar basis: For example, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 75, up 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was -65, up 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week [9]. - Sugar import prices: The quota - within price of Brazilian sugar was 4002, down 45 from the previous day and 77 from the previous week; the out - of - quota price was 5068, down 59 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week [13]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - With the continuous upward shift of cotton prices, the spinning profits of domestic downstream yarn mills have been significantly squeezed, and industrial risks have accumulated. Meanwhile, the price advantage of imported yarn has emerged, which may impact domestic cotton consumption. In the short term, cotton prices may face a correction risk, but the correction range may be limited due to the relatively low inventory pressure of the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [15]. Key Points - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices: Cotton 01 closed at 14675, down 20 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.14%; Cotton 05 closed at 14590, down 85 from the previous day with a decrease of 0.58%, etc. [16] - Cotton and cotton yarn price spreads: The cotton basis was 1341, up 44 from the previous day; Cotton 01 - 05 was 85, up 65 from the previous day, etc. [16] Group 3: Apple Core View - In the short term, apples have slightly corrected due to lower - than - expected demand. However, the main logic of the current market is the short - term issue of delivery products. It is expected that apples will continue to be strong after short - term adjustment. Additionally, pre - Spring Festival stocking has gradually started, and cold storages are packaging goods. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [20]. Key Points - Apple futures prices: AP03 closed at 9583, down 3.06% from the previous day and 1.6% from the previous week; AP04 closed at 9539, down 2.73% from the previous day and 1.47% from the previous week, etc. [21] - Apple price spreads: AP01 - 05 was - 9807, down 14959.09% from the previous day and 2195.51% from the previous week; AP05 - 10 was 1402, down 2.71% from the previous day and up 29.81% from the previous week [21][22]. - Apple basis: The main contract basis was - 430, down 12.96% from the previous day and up 27.98% from the previous week [21]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - In the short term, red date prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream procurement. In the long - term, the overall supply - demand of domestic red dates in the new year is relatively loose, and prices will still face downward pressure [29]. Key Points - Red date price spreads: For example, the red date futures spread of 01 - 05 showed certain trends in different periods [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel demand has officially entered the off - season. Hot - rolled coil inventory risk still exists, and future attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve. The steel consumption side may gradually recover in the future. Although demand is still weak in the short term, it is expected to turn around with policy implementation and macro - environmental changes [2]. - For the iron ore market, due to environmental protection restrictions and declining steel mill profits, iron ore demand continues to weaken, and inventory pressure remains. After the macro - events are realized, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the short - term ore price is still running weakly [5]. - For the manganese silicon and silicon iron market, the black - sector pricing has recently returned to fundamentals. The market is trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it is considered a temporary shock with limited downside space. It is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The subsequent upward height depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies [9][10]. - For the industrial silicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the cost support is stable. The price is expected to consolidate and wait for new drivers [13]. - For the polysilicon market, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price increase depends on the actual progress of the platform company [15]. - For the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. For the soda ash market, it is expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation in the short term [18][19]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2399 tons, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 59467 lots. The Tianjin aggregate price of rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1490 tons, and the main - contract open interest increased by 240 lots. The Lecong aggregate price of hot - rolled coil decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price remained unchanged [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. Hot - rolled coil demand declined significantly, with inventory accumulating against the season. Overall, steel demand has entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 760.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.19% (- 17.00). The open interest increased by 21913 lots to 55.94 million lots. The weighted open interest was 97.96 million lots. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.82 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.41% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output decreased, and steel mills increased maintenance. The port inventory increased, and the steel - mill inventory also rose. Fundamentally, iron ore demand continued to weaken, and inventory pressure remained. In the short term, the ore price was expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron 3.3.1 Market Information - On November 7, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.66% at 5760 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 110 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed down 1.07% at 5526 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 54 yuan/ton [7]. - Last week, the manganese - silicon price fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The silicon - iron price also fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 34 yuan/ton (+ 0.62%) [8]. 3.3.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, the black - sector pricing returned to fundamentals. The market was trying a "negative feedback" trade, but it was considered a temporary shock. It was more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese - ore situation. For silicon iron, it followed the electricity - price changes with low operational value [9][10]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon 3.4.1 Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9220 yuan/ton, up 1.71% (+ 155). The open interest increased by 35423 lots to 435728 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged, with a basis of 80 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged, with a basis of - 320 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In October, industrial - silicon production increased. In November, Southwest production was expected to decline. Demand from polysilicon decreased, and organic - silicon production was expected to be stable. Inventory was at a high level, and the price was expected to consolidate [13]. 3.5 Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 53215 yuan/ton, down 0.34% (- 180). The open interest increased by 3207 lots to 228759 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1015 yuan/ton [14]. 3.5.2 Strategy Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon production decreased, and downstream silicon - wafer production was also expected to decline. The supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but short - term de - stocking was limited. The price increase depends on the progress of the platform company [15]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton, up 0.36% (+ 4). The North China large - plate price remained unchanged, and the Central China price increased by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 265.40 million cases (- 4.03%) [17]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton, up 1.00% (+ 12). The Shahe heavy - soda price increased by 12 yuan. The weekly inventory of sample enterprises increased by 1.22 million tons (4.03%) [18]. 3.6.2 Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and local prices can be flexibly adjusted. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and production - capacity changes [18]. - Soda ash: The domestic market was stable, and the short - term market was expected to maintain a stable and volatile operation [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the storage purchase news, the rubber price increased slightly, but the weak demand expectation remains, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production period suppresses the upside of the rubber price. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 14,500 - 15,500, and short - selling on light positions can be considered at the upper limit of the range [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continues to decline under pressure after breaking through the low level. The supply has a growth expectation even at low prices, while the demand remains weak. The price may continue to be under pressure, with the price fluctuation range adjusted to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the way of capacity clearance [3]. Polysilicon - In May, the demand decline is highly certain, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to unchanged supply. The uncertainty of joint production cuts increases, and the polysilicon output is expected to increase. The warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The spot price continues to fall, pulling down the futures price. The main fluctuation range of the futures price is expected to move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and long positions should be closed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is new supply pressure from the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, and short - term inventory is likely to remain flat. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after maintenance. Consider short - term high - selling on the far - month contracts on rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - For glass, the spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the 09 contract observing whether it can be supported at the 1,000 level [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day; the whole - milk basis switched to the 2509 contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 700% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was - 820 yuan/ton on May 20, up 10 yuan or 1.2% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 8.7% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production was 149,200 tons, down 197,200 tons or 56.93% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 209,300 tons, up 11,700 tons or 5.92% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory was 618,693 tons on May 20, up 4,506 tons or 0.73% from the previous value; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE was 70,257 tons, down 4,435 tons or 5.94% [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 1.68% from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) was 890 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 8.54% [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread was - 30 yuan/ton on May 20, down 10 yuan or 50% from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or 12.1% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 201,400 tons, down 17,000 tons or 7.79% from the previous value; the social inventory was 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.5% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 37,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan or 120.59% [4]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract price was 35,625 yuan/ton on May 20, down 1,525 yuan or 4.1% from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan or 18.18% [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, unchanged from the previous value; in April, the polysilicon output was 95,400 tons, down 700 tons or 0.73% from the previous month [4]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 250,000 tons, down 7,000 tons or 2.72% from the previous value; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 hands to 140 hands [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 20, the North China glass quotation was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day; the glass 2505 contract price was 1,129 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan or 10.69% [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,315 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.33% [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on May 16 was 80.27%, down 8.51% from February 9; the weekly soda ash output was 677,700 tons, down 63,000 tons or 8.52% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,808,200 heavy boxes, up 52,200 heavy boxes or 0.77% from February 9; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 171,200 tons, up 1,100 tons or 0.63% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99% compared with the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67% compared with the previous value [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - to - medium term due to positive policy signals, accelerated domestic commercial inventory reduction, and high consumption, but the long - term high - yield expectation restricts the upward range [1]. - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly under the influence of positive macro factors, inventory reduction, and strong downstream polyester sales, with the upper price pressure level at 5000 yuan/ton [2][4]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton due to cost support and expected reduction in port arrivals [4]. - Short - fiber prices have rebounded due to rising raw material prices and reduced supply, but the price is expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term considering the upcoming terminal off - season and the end of upstream device maintenance [5]. - Sugar is expected to oscillate at a high level. Internationally, the supply may become looser later, while domestically, there are both positive and negative factors in the market [6]. - Apples are expected to fluctuate strongly. The current market trading is stable, and the expected reduction in production and weather uncertainties support the price [6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Key Information - The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained. It also adjusted the ad - valorem tax rate for small Chinese parcels and canceled a planned increase in the specific tax [10]. - China suspended the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days, and will strengthen the control of strategic mineral exports [10]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety Cotton - On May 14, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14484 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20520 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [10]. - The 2024/25 annual production of Indian cotton is expected to be 500.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5%, while imports are expected to increase by 64.5%. Consumption is expected to decrease by 5.2%, and exports are expected to decrease by 36.5%. The ending inventory is expected to decrease by 35.6% [10]. - In April 2025, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.394 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 30.61% [10]. PTA - As of the end of April, the average monthly spot price of PTA was 4439 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 401 yuan/ton. The average price difference between futures and spot in April was 88.89 yuan/ton, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase. The monthly processing fee was 344.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month and year - on - year increase [13]. - Last week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PTA was 74.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53% and a year - on - year increase of 1.25% [13]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of Chinese ethylene glycol was 61.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. The capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 2.06%, while that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 3.53% [14]. - The weekly output of Chinese ethylene glycol plants was 549,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12%. The overall supply increased slightly [14]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of Chinese polyester short - fiber was 164,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%, and the average capacity utilization rate was 86.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26% [14]. - As of the 8th, the average polymerization cost of Chinese polyester short - fiber was 5315.65 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The average cash flow in the industry was - 193.98 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 31.58% [14]. Sugar - The Green Pool expects the global sugar supply to have a small surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 season, with production increasing by 5.3% and consumption increasing by 0.95% [13][14]. - In the second half of April, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased significantly compared with the same period last year [14][15]. - StoneX expects India's sugar production to be 32.3 million tons in the 2025/26 season [15]. Apple - As of May 7, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 2.2886 million tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous week and two weeks before the festival, and the current inventory is still at a low level in the past five years [16]. - In the Shandong and Shaanxi producing areas, the prices of different grades of apples are given [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually starting, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $17.14 to $17.52, a 2.22% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.4 to $66.73, a 0.99% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,135 yuan, a 0.41% decrease; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,015 yuan to 5,985 yuan, a 0.50% decrease. The cotton index 328 rose by 0.25%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Overview**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and CF01 - 05 showed different degrees of change, with SR05 - 09 having the largest increase of 17.68%, and SR09 - 01 having the largest decrease of 10.14% [3] - **Import Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,401.5 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.1023, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 9.18; the implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1335, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 30,301 to 30,346, a 0.15% increase; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,172 to 11,269, an 0.87% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million yuan, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]