Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the storage purchase news, the rubber price increased slightly, but the weak demand expectation remains, and the expected increase in raw materials during the peak - production period suppresses the upside of the rubber price. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to fluctuate widely in the range of 14,500 - 15,500, and short - selling on light positions can be considered at the upper limit of the range [1]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price continues to decline under pressure after breaking through the low level. The supply has a growth expectation even at low prices, while the demand remains weak. The price may continue to be under pressure, with the price fluctuation range adjusted to 7,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price continues to fall, attention can be paid to the way of capacity clearance [3]. Polysilicon - In May, the demand decline is highly certain, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation due to unchanged supply. The uncertainty of joint production cuts increases, and the polysilicon output is expected to increase. The warehouse receipts are expected to gradually increase. The spot price continues to fall, pulling down the futures price. The main fluctuation range of the futures price is expected to move down to 34,000 - 40,000 yuan/ton, and long positions should be closed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, there is new supply pressure from the output of Lianyungang Alkali Industry. The market has a strong expectation of maintenance from May to June, and short - term inventory is likely to remain flat. In the medium - to - long term, there is still pressure for further inventory accumulation after maintenance. Consider short - term high - selling on the far - month contracts on rebounds and 7 - 9 positive spreads [5]. - For glass, the spot market is generally weak, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Although the downstream demand has improved seasonally, the market expectation is poor, and the price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the 09 contract observing whether it can be supported at the 1,000 level [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.67% from the previous day; the whole - milk basis switched to the 2509 contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 700% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread was - 820 yuan/ton on May 20, up 10 yuan or 1.2% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 125 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 8.7% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, Thailand's production was 149,200 tons, down 197,200 tons or 56.93% from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 209,300 tons, up 11,700 tons or 5.92% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded - area inventory was 618,693 tons on May 20, up 4,506 tons or 0.73% from the previous value; the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE was 70,257 tons, down 4,435 tons or 5.94% [1]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 1.68% from the previous day; the basis (based on oxygen - permeable SI5530) was 890 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 8.54% [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2506 - 2507 spread was - 30 yuan/ton on May 20, down 10 yuan or 50% from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Fundamental Data - In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons or 12.1% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory was 201,400 tons, down 17,000 tons or 7.79% from the previous value; the social inventory was 599,000 tons, up 3,000 tons or 0.5% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - On May 20, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 37,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day; the N - type material basis (average price) was 1,875 yuan/ton, up 1,025 yuan or 120.59% [4]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The PS2506 contract price was 35,625 yuan/ton on May 20, down 1,525 yuan or 4.1% from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan or 18.18% [4]. Fundamental Data - Weekly polysilicon output was 21,400 tons, unchanged from the previous value; in April, the polysilicon output was 95,400 tons, down 700 tons or 0.73% from the previous month [4]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory was 250,000 tons, down 7,000 tons or 2.72% from the previous value; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 hands to 140 hands [4]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - On May 20, the North China glass quotation was 1,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day; the glass 2505 contract price was 1,129 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan or 10.69% [5]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation was 1,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,315 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 2.33% [5]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate on May 16 was 80.27%, down 8.51% from February 9; the weekly soda ash output was 677,700 tons, down 63,000 tons or 8.52% [5]. Inventory - The glass factory - warehouse inventory was 6,808,200 heavy boxes, up 52,200 heavy boxes or 0.77% from February 9; the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory was 171,200 tons, up 1,100 tons or 0.63% [5]. Real Estate Data - The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area was - 18.73%, an increase of 2.99% compared with the previous value; the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area was - 11.68%, an increase of 15.67% compared with the previous value [5].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） 棉纺团队 研究员： 洪润霞 咨询电话 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major producing areas except Yunnan have completed the sugar - crushing process, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption during May Day supported stable sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is gradually starting, but due to weather factors, its sugar output is uncertain. It is expected that international sugar prices will oscillate and weaken in the short term. Attention should be paid to the planting and growth of domestic sugarcane and beets, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to the US tariff hikes on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed down. Consumption has decreased by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons, and imports have also decreased by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. Recently, high temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Data Overview - **External Quotes**: On May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of US sugar rose from $17.14 to $17.52, a 2.22% increase; the price of US cotton fell from $67.4 to $66.73, a 0.99% decrease [3] - **Spot Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6,160 yuan to 6,135 yuan, a 0.41% decrease; in Kunming, it decreased from 6,015 yuan to 5,985 yuan, a 0.50% decrease. The cotton index 328 rose by 0.25%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained unchanged [3] - **Spread Overview**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, spreads such as SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and CF01 - 05 showed different degrees of change, with SR05 - 09 having the largest increase of 17.68%, and SR09 - 01 having the largest decrease of 10.14% [3] - **Import Prices**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.45 [3] - **Profit Margins**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,401.5 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.1023, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR509 is 9.18; the implied volatility of CF509C12800 is 0.1335, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF509 is 11.77 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From May 7 - 8, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts increased from 30,301 to 30,346, a 0.15% increase; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 11,172 to 11,269, an 0.87% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale domestic futures company with a registered capital of 600 million yuan, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd. It has memberships in multiple futures exchanges [9]