Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with a recommendation to go long at low levels. The sugar market is likely to continue its oscillating upward trend, and its downside space is gradually narrowing [1][3] Summary by Related Content Cotton - Downstream demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" season is fair, with an increase in order volume, stable spinning mill operating rates, and cotton raw material restocking at low prices. The cotton supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the reduction of the new - season cotton planting area [1] - The confirmed schedule of Trump's visit to China in May 2026 is expected to stabilize Sino - US trade, with potential for tariff cuts and US cotton purchases [1] Sugar - Due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, the ICE raw sugar futures price rebounded and reached a new high in nearly 5 months, closing at 15.9 cents per pound, up 0.38 cents per pound. The impact of geopolitical situation changes on sugar prices needs to be closely monitored [2] - India's food department announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 is 230 tons, 5 tons less than the same period last year. After the quota announcement, the local sugar price is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [2] - The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment within the quota is 4378 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 5573 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1272 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 77 yuan per ton [2] - The increase in the outer - market raw sugar price narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, raw sugar is gradually emerging from the bottom. The downside space of sugar is expected to shrink, and the bottom - building market is becoming clear [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend, with limited short - term fundamental drivers, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations and downstream order conditions. The potential positive factor of Trump's postponed visit to China still provides some support for cotton prices [1]. - The sugar market is expected to continue an oscillating upward trend. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the narrowing import profit indicates that the downside space for sugar prices is gradually shrinking [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Due to abnormal weather and pest infestations, India's cotton production has been fluctuating. In the 2025/26 season, its cotton planting area decreased by nearly one - fifth from 13.4 million hectares in the 2019/20 season to 11.2 million hectares, as farmers are shifting to more stable and profitable alternative crops like rice and corn [1]. - In the domestic market, the downstream peak season is evident, with an increase in order numbers and stable spinning mill operating rates, but the immediate spinning profit is not good [1]. Sugar - As of March 20, 2026, the inventory of Guangxi's third - party sugar warehouses was about 2.4 million tons, an increase of about 600,000 tons compared to the same period last year, reaching the highest level in the past five years. Since March, the third - party inventory inflow increased by 800,000 tons month - on - month, significantly higher than 200,000 tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated cost of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,453 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,671 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed Brazilian sugar within the quota compared to the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1,197 yuan/ton, while outside the quota it is - 21 yuan/ton [2]. - The rise in the outer - disk raw sugar price has reduced the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, the raw sugar is gradually emerging from the trough due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton industry inventory is continuously decreasing, the spot basis is stable, the downstream cotton yarn market has limited improvement, and spinning mills are not willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, with short - term fundamental drivers being limited. Due to the delay of Trump's visit to China, near - month demand growth expectations may not be met, but the decline in cotton prices is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] - The international sugar market is highly linked to the energy market. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, ICE raw sugar futures prices rose last night. In the short term, international sugar prices may follow the crude oil trend and maintain a range - bound pattern, and macro - sentiment changes need to be closely monitored. China's sugar imports from January to February 2026 were higher than market expectations [1] - Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand, especially in the international raw sugar market. The domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and sugar prices fluctuate with crude oil. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Cotton - Industry inventory is continuously decreasing, the spot basis is stable, the downstream cotton yarn market has limited improvement, and spinning mills follow a "use - as - you - buy" strategy. The quota issuance is confirmed, and short - term fundamental drivers are limited. The delay of Trump's visit to China may lead to a decline in cotton prices, but the decline is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1] Sugar - The international sugar market is highly linked to the energy market. ICE raw sugar futures prices rose last night, and in the short term, it may follow the crude oil trend and maintain a range - bound pattern. China imported 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February 2026, an increase of 440,900 tons year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The estimated cost of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,134 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,255 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and duty - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1,486 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 365 yuan/ton. Sugar is in a stage of loose supply and demand, the domestic market is stronger than the foreign market, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [1][2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as new - year supply contraction supports the market, despite current ample supply, high commercial inventory, high raw material prices, and cautious restocking by spinning mills [1]. - Sugar is in a stage with strong downside support but limited upward drive. A low - buying strategy is recommended due to overall loose supply - demand, especially for international raw sugar, and the influence of import ratios, price differences, and crude oil price fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a 300,000 - ton processing trade quota for imported cotton in 2026 with a contract - based application system [1]. - Supply is ample with high commercial inventory. The downstream market is in the traditional peak season with signs of recovery in the cotton yarn market, but spinning mills' immediate profits are poor, leading to cautious restocking [1]. - New - year cotton supply contraction supports the market. The Sino - US negotiation in Paris reached a preliminary consensus on agricultural product procurement and energy cooperation, with China promising to increase imports from the US and the US planning to relax some high - tech product export restrictions [1]. Sugar - As of March 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 26.175 million tons, a 10% increase from the same period last year. The 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is approaching its end, with more sugar mills in major producing states closing down [2]. - In the 2025/26 season, 540 sugar mills in India started crushing, 7 more than the previous season. Currently, 173 mills are still operating, significantly fewer than 200 at the same time last year. For example, in Maharashtra, as of March 12, 154 out of 210 sugar mills completed the season, crushing 10.3696 million tons of sugar cane and producing about 9.8158 million tons of sugar [2]. - The sugar market is in a supply - demand - loose stage, especially for international raw sugar. The proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is small, the price difference between domestic and international markets widens after the domestic market strengthens, and crude oil price fluctuations affect sugar prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For cotton, with domestic cotton inspection almost finished, commercial inventory declining, and downstream yarn market trading being dull, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The upcoming Sino-US economic and trade consultations and a possible visit by Trump to China are important factors affecting cotton prices [1]. - For sugar, the Brazilian 2025/26 sugarcane production and sugar output have specific situations. The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, with strong support at the bottom but limited upward drive. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2][3]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Domestic cotton inspection is basically over, commercial inventory is decreasing, and the downstream yarn market has dull trading. The spinning mills' profit is not good, and their inventory - replenishing attitude is cautious [1]. - New cotton planting in China is approaching, and the contraction of planting area supports the market [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and a possible visit by Trump to China will affect cotton prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [1]. Sugar - The expected Brazilian 2025/26 sugarcane production is 665 million tons, with 606 million tons from the central - southern region. In the second half of January, the sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 6.1 million tons of sugarcane, much higher than last year. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production has dropped significantly [2]. - The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in 2025/26 is 601.6 million tons (a 2.16% year - on - year decrease), and the sugar output is 40.24 million tons (a 0.86% year - on - year increase) [2]. - The EC weather model shows that the weather in São Paulo will be wet in the next 15 days, but it is unlikely to affect the crushing. The next sugar - cane crushing season will start in April [2]. - The domestic sugar market has basically realized the expected high yield, and subsequent trend - following market movements need macro or external market drivers [2]. - The estimated cost of processed and tax - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,064 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,164 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and tax - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white - sugar spot price is 1,556 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 456 yuan/ton [2]. - The sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, with strong support at the bottom but limited upward drive. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: ICE US cotton rose 0.06% to 65.21 cents per pound on Thursday, and Zhengzhou cotton's main contract rose 0.23% to 15,545 yuan per ton, with the main contract's open interest decreasing by 2,473 lots to 741,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,660 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue to affect market expectations, and the sharp rebound in crude oil prices led to most commodity markets strengthening, but ICE US cotton futures prices showed a narrow - range shock. In the domestic market, the center of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices moved slightly higher, and the rise in crude oil prices also had a certain driving effect on cotton prices. The USDA March report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 246,000 tons, with China's cotton production increased by 109,000 tons to 7.729 million tons and consumption also increased by 109,000 tons, resulting in a decrease in the inventory - to - sales ratio. From January to February, textile yarn, fabric, and clothing exports showed double - digit year - on - year growth. In the short term, the market is affected by the Middle East situation, and in the long term, new cotton planting is about to start. The market is expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term and have support in the long term, with potential upside [2]. - Sugar: As of March 11, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 88.3668 million tons, an increase of 426,400 tons or 0.48% compared to the same period last year; the sugar content of sugarcane was 12.80%, an increase of 0.22% compared to the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 11.082%, an increase of 0.269% compared to the same period last year; and the sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, an increase of 283,500 tons or 2.98% compared to the same period last year. Spot prices of sugar increased, with Guangxi sugar - making groups' quotes ranging from 5,410 to 5,510 yuan per ton, up 10 - 20 yuan; Yunnan sugar - making groups' quotes at 5,280 - 5,330 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan; and processed sugar mills' mainstream quotes ranging from 5,630 to 5,900 yuan per ton, with some increasing by 10 yuan. Due to the obstruction of cruise ship transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, the regional situation is more complex, oil prices soar, and concerns increase, causing the raw sugar futures price to rise slightly. In the domestic market, spot transactions are okay, but geopolitical influence is still significant, and the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to observe more and trade less and be vigilant about risk transmission [2]. Group 3: Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 contract spread was - 50, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day; the main contract basis was 1,303, an increase of 150. The spot price in Xinjiang was 16,673 yuan per ton, an increase of 190, and the national spot price was 16,848 yuan per ton, an increase of 180 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 contract spread was - 25, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day; the main contract basis was 44, an increase of 37. The spot price in Nanning was 5,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 30, and in Liuzhou was 5,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On March 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 12,325, an increase of 173 from the previous trading day, with 446 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions on March 12 were 16,673 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,879 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,894 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,973 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load on March 12 was 54.1, an increase of 0.4 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 17.8, a decrease of 0.8; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 60.4, an increase of 0.1; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 25.6, a decrease of 0.2 [4]. - Sugar: On March 12, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan from the previous trading day, and in Liuzhou was 5,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts on March 12 was 16,342, the same as the previous trading day, with 684 valid forecasts [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 5 - 9 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][9][10][11][13][15][16][18]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on sugar industry research, participates in major projects of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and writing of China Futures Association series books, and has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has participated in large - scale projects and won many awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and has won relevant awards [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating upward with strong support and limited downside space, though there is no major bull - market driver [1] - Sugar is in a stage of strong downside support but limited upward drive, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Cotton - From January to February, textile and clothing exports totaled $50.45 billion, a 17.6% increase. Textile exports were $25.57 billion, up 20.5%, and clothing exports were $24.87 billion, up 14.8% [1] - The joint rise of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton is due to factors such as tightened global supply - demand expectations, cost support, market sentiment, and policy linkage. In China, Xinjiang's policy - driven production cut strengthens the bullish market expectation. Although current spot supply is sufficient, the market focuses on the expected supply contraction in the new year. The decline in domestic commercial cotton inventory reflects the resilience of the demand side, supporting the strength of Zhengzhou cotton [1] Sugar - The international market's expectation of macro - risks has eased, and with the decline of international oil prices, the ICE raw sugar futures price adjusted to 14.32 cents per pound, a drop of 0.30 cents per pound. The raw sugar is affected by both macro - sentiment and long - term fundamental positives, and factors are complex. Geopolitical situation disturbances and the realization of the northern hemisphere's sugar production expectation difference need to be closely monitored [1] - The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4015 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 5100 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white sugar spot price is 1605 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 520 yuan per ton [2] - Sugar is generally in a stage of loose supply - demand. Since the proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year is small, the price difference between the domestic and international markets widens after the domestic market strengthens, and the rise and fall of crude oil drives the sugar price up and down [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton maintains a relatively strong trend, and subsequent attention should be paid to the sixth round of Sino - US negotiations. The demand outlook remains uncertain, and the market price has slightly declined with cautious restocking by textile enterprises [1]. - The global sugar market is in a pattern of overall supply surplus, which exerts pressure on sugar prices. However, due to factors such as the low proportion of imported sugar in the first half of the year, the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, and the potential impact of increased ethanol production in Brazil on sugar output, a low - buying strategy is recommended, and the post - March delivery trend of raw sugar should be monitored [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Small textile enterprises that were delayed due to the holiday have resumed operation, and textile enterprises have basically fully resumed production. Downstream market procurement has gradually emerged, but overall it remains cautious, and restocking is not active, with resistance to price increases. The cotton price has slightly decreased, and restocking by textile enterprises remains cautious [1]. - In mid - March, the storage, inspection, and transportation of cotton in warehouses will gradually return to normal, and the outbound volume of Xinjiang cotton by road and rail will rebound, which is expected to increase the warehouse receipts and commercial inventory in inland warehouses [1]. - The Middle East conflict over the weekend did not affect the cotton sector, and the impact of Trump's visit to China on cotton demand remains uncertain [1]. Sugar - As of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a year - on - year increase of 0.13% [1]. - The potential bullish factors brought about by the lower - than - expected production increase in countries such as India and Thailand still need final verification, and the overall supply surplus in the global sugar market continues to pressure sugar prices [1]. - The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand. In the first half of the year, the proportion of imported sugar is small, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has widened. Rising crude oil prices are conducive to Brazil increasing ethanol production, which may change the "sugar - ethanol ratio" and reduce sugar output [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the soft commodity industry is "shockingly strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand structure of US cotton is gradually tightening. Zhengzhou cotton has strong support at the bottom, and the improvement of the subsequent demand side determines whether there is an upward driving force [1] - In the short term, white sugar is still consolidating and oscillating at a low level, waiting for a turnaround after the delivery of the raw sugar 03 contract [3] Summary by Commodity Cotton - In the 2026/27 season, global cotton production is expected to decline by 3% to 116 million bales due to reduced planting area and yield in major cotton - producing countries, while consumption is expected to increase by 1% to 120.1 million bales [1] - After the Spring Festival, cotton prices rose significantly on the first day, supported by the decrease in the new - year planting area. However, attention should be paid to whether there will be frictions in the post - festival demand and trade [1] Sugar - In the second half of January, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugar - cane crushing volume increased by 154.39% year - on - year to 609,000 tons, the sugar - making ratio decreased by 16.94% to 6.63%, and the sugar production decreased by 36.31% to 5,000 tons [2] - As of February 14, 2025/26 season in India, 80 sugar mills have shut down, and the cumulative sugar production reached 22.53 million tons, a 13.9% increase year - on - year [2] - As of February 15, 2025/26 season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume decreased by 6.57% to 63.4728 million tons, and the sugar production decreased by 4.83% to 6.8356 million tons [2] - The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, but the sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially in India, is putting pressure on prices. The 03 contract of the outer - market raw sugar faces a huge delivery of 1.7 million tons [3]