软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 11 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.59%，报收 65.44 美分/磅，CF601 环比下跌 0.3%，报收 13395 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 6347 手至 56.5 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14280 元/吨，较前一日下降 35 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多 | | | | 在于宏观层面，美联储 12 月降息预期扰动市场情绪，美元指数坚挺。等待即将公 | 偏弱震 | | | 布的美联储议息会议纪要及非农数据。基本面来看，USDA 报告公布，调增全球、 | | | | 中国、巴西棉花产量预期值，报告相对利空，等待更多数据指引。国内市场方面， | 荡 | | | 近期市场情绪有一定波动。基本面方面，短期供应压力是市场无法忽视的问题，棉 | | | | 花商业库存也在快速增加，而且供应高峰期仍将持续一定时间，棉价上方压力较 | | | | 大。综合来看，预计短期郑棉在供应压力下或有一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weak US dollar boosts commodity prices, and soft commodities receive short - term support. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5750.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5725.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closes at 14.47, with a change of - 3.34%. US cotton closes at 64.65, with a change of 0.73% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 7795.0, with a change of - 4.76%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2488.0, with a change of - 0.60% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills was postponed. The impact on sugar beet production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, major sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14000 to 16000 yuan [3] Data Quick View Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars) was 14.97 on October 26, 2025, and 14.47 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 3.34% - US cotton (in dollars) was 64.18 on October 26, 2025, and 64.65 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.73% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning) was 5750.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming) was 5730.0 on October 24, 2025, and 5725.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.09% - Cotton Index 328 was 3281 on October 24, 2025, and 3280 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.20% - Cotton (Xinjiang) was 14650.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 was 48.0 on October 26, 2025, and 46.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.17% - SR05 - 09 was - 14.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 11.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 21.43% - SR09 - 01 was - 34.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 35.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 2.94% - CF01 - 05 was 0.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 10.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - inf% - CF05 - 09 was - 160.0 on October 26 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - CF09 - 01 was 160.0 on October 26, 2025, and 170.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 6.25% - Sugar 01 basis was 284.0 on October 26, 2025, and 280.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.41% - Sugar 05 basis was 332.0 on October 26, 2025, and 326.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.81% - Sugar 09 basis was 318.0 on October 26, 2025, and 315.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.94% - Cotton 01 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1268.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.40% - Cotton 05 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1258.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.40% - Cotton 09 basis was 1103.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1098.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.45% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 75.55 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit was 1650.5 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5400, the implied volatility is 0.0752, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 7.1 - For SR601P5400, the implied volatility is 0.0743 - For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.074, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 7.97 - For CF601P13600, the implied volatility is 0.0752 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar was 8185.0 on October 24, 2025, and 7795.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.76% - Cotton was 2503.0 on October 24, 2025, and 2488.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.60% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention [1][3]. - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,500 yuan [1] 3.2 Disk - U.S. sugar closed at 15.53 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.29 with a change of 0.00% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and with the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,418.0, with a change of - 0.24%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,653.0, with a change of - 2.61% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia is not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills is postponed. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period are suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas are higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.6 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. The cotton index 328 increased by 0.10%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis of sugar and cotton remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 16 to 17, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.61% [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国际贸易情绪紧张，软商品观望为主 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-15 报告内容摘要: 盘面：美白糖收 15.57，涨跌幅-3.29%。美棉花收 63.54，涨跌幅-0.36%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8681.0 张，涨跌幅为 0.00%；郑棉仓单 2867.0 张， 涨跌幅为 0.00%。 结论： 白糖：8 月份内蒙古降雨偏多，不利于甜菜糖分积累及起收，糖厂开机时间 推迟，对甜菜糖产量的影响需进一步跟踪评估。9 月底 10 月初广东 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The textile market has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally, with upward price momentum [1][2]. - The overall growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected by drought and excessive rainfall respectively, resulting in a delay in the start - up time of sugar mills. Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14950.0 yuan [1]. Market - U.S. sugar closed at 16.4, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton closed at 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8981.0, with a change of - 5.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [1] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar (in dollars) rose from 16.35 on September 28, 2025, to 16.4 on September 29, 2025, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton (in dollars) fell from 66.33 to 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [3]. Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, and Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5810.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 fell from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.32%. Xinjiang cotton spot price fell from 15000.0 yuan to 14950.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.33% [3]. Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and sugar 05 and 09 basis points have changed to varying degrees, while the spreads of CF09 - 01 and cotton 01 and 09 basis points remained unchanged [3]. Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 77.7 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1484.5 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Options - The implied volatility of SR601C5500 and SR601P5500 is 0.0859, and the historical volatility of SR601 is 6.48. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1195, and the implied volatility of CF601P13400 is 0.1234, with the historical volatility of CF601 being 7.39 [3]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9464.0 on September 28, 2025, to 8981.0 on September 29, 2025, with a change of - 5.10%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3397.0 to 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [3] Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weakening US dollar provides support, and soft commodities will experience short - term oscillations [1] - For sugar, from July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1][3] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The overall growth progress is earlier than usual. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%. US cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, US sugar decreased by 0.56% to 16.05 US dollars, and US cotton increased by 0.27% to 66.23 US dollars [4] - **Spot Prices**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.34% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton decreased by 0.65% to 15300.0 yuan [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: There were significant changes in the price differences between different futures contracts of sugar and cotton, and the basis of sugar and cotton futures also changed to different degrees [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1550.0 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have corresponding implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 3.18% to 12782.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.20% to 5996.0 [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴基斯坦洪水引发产量担忧，棉花短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5910.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5825.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15250.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.34，涨跌幅 0.00%。美棉花收 66.53，涨跌幅 0.00%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 13434.0 张，涨跌幅为-3.46%；郑棉仓单 6320.0 张， 涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening US dollar suppresses commodity prices, leading to short - term adjustments in soft commodities [1]. - For sugar, seasonal consumption growth is driven by summer cold - drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required [1][3]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some areas in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5970.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5860.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15100.0 yuan [1]. Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.39, with a change of - 0.30%. The closing price of US cotton is 67.38, with a change of - 0.91% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile provide support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 15385.0, with a change of - 1.09%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 7104.0, with a change of - 1.31% [2]. Data Overview - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 25, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.39 dollars, down 0.30% from the previous day; the price of US cotton was 67.38 dollars, down 0.91% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5970.0 yuan; the price of Kunming sugar rose from 5855.0 yuan to 5860.0 yuan, an increase of 0.09%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.05%; the price of Xinjiang cotton rose from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, an increase of 0.33% [4]. - **Price Difference Overview**: From August 24 to 25, 2025, the price differences of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all changed to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 22.11% and the largest decrease of 42.86%. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts also changed, with the largest increase of 8.53% and the largest decrease of 8.08% [4]. - **Import Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 [4]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the profit from sugar imports remained unchanged at 1515.0 [4]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200, the implied volatility and historical volatility of the underlying futures are provided [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15555.0 to 15385.0, a decrease of 1.09%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7198.0 to 7104.0, a decrease of 1.31% [4]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3].