软商品日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日 棉花：春节假期，USDA 年度棉花展望报告发布，2026/27 年度全球棉花产量 预计下降 3%，至 1.16 亿包，原因是主要产棉国种植面积和单产下降。同时，在 贸易环境稳定和经济增长加快的带动下，全球棉花消费量预计增长 1%，至 1.201 亿包。 【冠通期货研究报告】 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 美棉的供需结构开始逐渐收紧，国内也受到新一年度种植面积下降支撑，节 后首日棉花上涨幅度较大，不过后续需要关注节后需求端以及贸易端是否还会存 在摩擦风险。总的来说郑棉下方有强劲支持，而后续需求端 ...

Group 1 - The soft commodity sector, including grains, livestock, and dairy products, is gaining momentum and attracting market attention, alongside the strong performance of hard commodities like gold and silver [1] - The VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO.US) offers diversified exposure across the agricultural value chain, including fertilizers, machinery, and food processing, rather than solely betting on spot prices [1] - Nutrien (NTR.US) has seen a nearly 20% increase over the past two weeks and is considered a strong stock in the agricultural sector [1] Group 2 - CF Industries Holdings (CF.US) has risen over 18% year-to-date and has recorded four consecutive weeks of gains, marking its longest winning streak since last year [2] - Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.US) has increased approximately 17% this year, with a dividend yield close to 3%, and has recently broken through the key $65 resistance level [2] - Darling Ingredients (DAR.US) has seen a cumulative increase of about 23% over the past three months, with its stock price recently surpassing the critical $40 resistance level [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is expected to remain in a short - term oscillatory adjustment with limited downside space, and attention should be paid to the support near the 20 - day line [1]. - The sugar market has a large supply pressure in the near - term, with weak short - term upward momentum. However, the double - festival stocking may boost demand, and it may be possible to buy on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On January 13, 2026, the Xinjiang cotton price index of 3128B grade was 15,605 yuan/ton, up 113 yuan/ton from the previous day; 3129B grade was 15,715 yuan/ton, up 146 yuan/ton; double 28 grade was 15,659 yuan/ton, up 151 yuan/ton; double 29 grade was 15,763 yuan/ton, up 167 yuan/ton [1]. - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract rebounded significantly, with the highest reaching 14,890 yuan/ton, and the basis quotation in Xinjiang strengthened. Spinning enterprises mainly made purchases through point - price transactions, and the spot transaction price of double 29 in Xinjiang was between 15,600 - 15,800 yuan/ton [1]. - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase space is restricted due to the ineffective transmission of upstream price increases downstream [1]. Sugar - In the first half of December, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.894 million tons or 32.83%; the ATR of sugarcane was 143.02 kg/ton, an increase of 26.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year; the sugar - making ratio was 31.47%, a decrease of 4.81% compared to the same period last year; ethanol production was 740 million liters, a year - on - year decrease of 22 million liters or 2.89%; sugar production was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 102,000 tons or 28.76% [2]. - The basis repair between sugar futures and spot has been basically completed, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been somewhat repaired. The near - month still has a large supply pressure, and the short - term upward momentum is weak. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets may attract more imports, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase is restricted due to ineffective upward - to - downward price transmission. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term with limited downside space [1]. - The rural agriculture department's prediction on China's sugar supply - demand remains unchanged. Domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the international sugar supply is also loose. The short - term upward momentum of sugar is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cotton - The 2025/26 January US cotton supply - demand balance shows a decline in production and ending stocks compared to December. Beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports remain unchanged. Production drops by over 2% to 13.9 million bales due to lower delta region output. The national average yield falls 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decrease 7% to 4.2 million bales, accounting for 30.4% of consumption. The estimated farm - average price is raised to 61 cents per pound [1]. - The USDA cotton report is slightly bullish, but price increase space is restricted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term with support near the 20 - day line [1]. Sugar - The rural agriculture department's prediction on 2025/26 China's sugar supply - demand is consistent with last month. Northern beet - sugar production nears completion, and southern cane - sugar production is at its peak. New domestic sugar is on the market, and supply is sufficient with downstream merchants purchasing as needed. As of December, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production is 1.94 million tons with a sales rate of 45.56%, down 13.76 percentage points year - on - year; Yunnan's is 390,000 tons with a sales rate of 71.72%, down 9.98 percentage points year - on - year. Weather impact on sugar - cane sugar content needs attention [2]. - Internationally, India and Thailand have strong production increase expectations, and Brazil's sugar production remains high, resulting in a loose international sugar supply - demand situation. The basis between sugar futures and spot has been mostly repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been adjusted. Near - month contracts face large supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. A large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, but double - festival stocking may boost demand, and investors can consider buying on dips [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to the adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month, but the upside potential of the near - month is limited [1] - The sugar market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state due to abundant supply both internationally and domestically [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - On the 15th, the sales basis of machine - picked cotton 3129B in Aksu, Xinjiang (within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 910 - 980 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14750 - 14900 yuan/ton, up about 50 yuan/ton from last Friday [1] - In Bortala, Xinjiang, the basis transaction price of new machine - picked cotton (Grade 31, double 29, within 2.7% impurity) for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 980 - 1080 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14900 - 15100 yuan/ton, up 50 - 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Sugar - StoneX's third revised report on the global sugar supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/26 season predicts a sugar surplus of 3.7 million tons, and the estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil for the 2026/27 season is 41.5 million tons, which is lower than the previous estimate [2] - As of December 15, in the 2025/26 season in India, 479 sugar mills were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [2] - With abundant international supply, all northern beet sugar mills in China are in operation, and southern cane sugar mills are gradually starting production. The domestic sugar market supply is abundant, and sugar prices are under downward pressure [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to have a slightly weak and volatile short - term trend due to supply pressure, with limited adjustment range, waiting for time to resolve the situation. The USDA report is relatively bearish, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly [1]. - Sugar is under pressure. With more sugar mills starting production and import pressure, if there is no continuous positive news in the syrup and premixed powder import segment, the market may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to the October import data of syrup and premixed powder [1]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 65.44 cents per pound, CF601 fell 0.3% to 13,395 yuan per ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 6,347 to 565,000. The 3128B spot price index was 14,280 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan. The market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation affecting market sentiment. The USDA report increased the expected cotton production in the world, China, and Brazil. Domestically, the short - term supply pressure is significant, and the cotton commercial inventory is rising rapidly [1]. - **Sugar**: In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the total import was 3.9054 million tons, a 13.8% increase. The spot prices in different regions were adjusted downwards. India's new sugar production is progressing steadily, and the market sentiment is suppressed by the expected increase in the Northern Hemisphere's production [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 with no change, the main contract basis was 1394, up 38. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,558 yuan per ton, down 21, and the national spot price was 14,789 yuan per ton, down 12 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 54, down 8. Some data sources for sugar were missing [2]. 3. Market Information - On November 18, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10 to 4386, and the valid forecasts were 928. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were also provided [2][3]. - On November 18, the sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 11 to 8611, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including closing prices, basis, contract spreads, warehouse receipts, and price indices, are presented, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][8][10][12][14][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weak US dollar boosts commodity prices, and soft commodities receive short - term support. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5750.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5725.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closes at 14.47, with a change of - 3.34%. US cotton closes at 64.65, with a change of 0.73% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom - support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 7795.0, with a change of - 4.76%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2488.0, with a change of - 0.60% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills was postponed. The impact on sugar beet production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, major sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton - picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to range from 14000 to 16000 yuan [3] Data Quick View Foreign Market Quotes - US sugar (in dollars) was 14.97 on October 26, 2025, and 14.47 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 3.34% - US cotton (in dollars) was 64.18 on October 26, 2025, and 64.65 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.73% [4] Spot Prices - Sugar (Nanning) was 5750.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - Sugar (Kunming) was 5730.0 on October 24, 2025, and 5725.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.09% - Cotton Index 328 was 3281 on October 24, 2025, and 3280 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.20% - Cotton (Xinjiang) was 14650.0 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Spread Quick View - SR01 - 05 was 48.0 on October 26, 2025, and 46.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.17% - SR05 - 09 was - 14.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 11.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 21.43% - SR09 - 01 was - 34.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 35.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 2.94% - CF01 - 05 was 0.0 on October 26, 2025, and - 10.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - inf% - CF05 - 09 was - 160.0 on October 26 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% - CF09 - 01 was 160.0 on October 26, 2025, and 170.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 6.25% - Sugar 01 basis was 284.0 on October 26, 2025, and 280.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.41% - Sugar 05 basis was 332.0 on October 26, 2025, and 326.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 1.81% - Sugar 09 basis was 318.0 on October 26, 2025, and 315.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.94% - Cotton 01 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1268.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.40% - Cotton 05 basis was 1263.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1258.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.40% - Cotton 09 basis was 1103.0 on October 26, 2025, and 1098.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.45% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA was 75.55 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit was 1650.5 on October 24 and October 27, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - For SR601C5400, the implied volatility is 0.0752, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 7.1 - For SR601P5400, the implied volatility is 0.0743 - For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.074, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 7.97 - For CF601P13600, the implied volatility is 0.0752 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts (in pieces) - Sugar was 8185.0 on October 24, 2025, and 7795.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 4.76% - Cotton was 2503.0 on October 24, 2025, and 2488.0 on October 27, 2025, with a change of - 0.60% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia on sugar beet production and the growth recovery of sugarcane after typhoon disasters in Guangdong and Guangxi need further attention [1][3]. - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices. The cotton growth period has suitable meteorological conditions, and the price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,500 yuan [1] 3.2 Disk - U.S. sugar closed at 15.53 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 64.29 with a change of 0.00% [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks in summer, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, and with the approaching peak season of cotton textile industry, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,418.0, with a change of - 0.24%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,653.0, with a change of - 2.61% [2] 3.5 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia is not conducive to the sugar accumulation and harvesting of sugar beets, and the start - up time of sugar mills is postponed. In late September and early October, sugarcane in major producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi was affected by typhoons, and the post - disaster growth recovery needs continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period are suitable, and the yield and quality in some areas are higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton is slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. The cotton price is expected to operate in the range of 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] 3.6 Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: U.S. sugar and cotton prices remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. The cotton index 328 increased by 0.10%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: All price differences and basis of sugar and cotton remained unchanged from October 18 to 19, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged from October 16 to 17, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 16 to 17, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.61% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst tense international trade sentiment, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14650.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 15.57, with a change of - 3.29%. U.S. cotton closed at 63.54, with a change of - 0.36% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Situation - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was relatively high and precipitation was low, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is a bottom - support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8681.0, with a change of 0.00%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2867.0, with a change of 0.00% [2] 3.4 Conclusion - Sugar: In August, there was excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia, which was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the sugar factory's start - up time was postponed. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. At the end of September and early October, the main sugar - cane producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi were affected by typhoons, resulting in sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton - growing period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. Some areas have entered the centralized harvesting period. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a downward risk after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] 3.5 Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] 3.6 Data Overview - **Outer - market Quotes**: From October 12 to 13, 2025, U.S. sugar dropped from 16.1 to 15.57, a decrease of 3.29%; U.S. cotton dropped from 63.77 to 63.54, a decrease of 0.36% [4] - **Spot Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, Nanning sugar remained at 5800.0 yuan, Kunming sugar dropped from 5810.0 to 5780.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.52%; the cotton index 328 remained at 3280, and Xinjiang cotton remained at 14650.0 yuan [4] - **Spread Overview**: There were various changes in sugar and cotton spreads from October 12 to 13, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 increasing by 18.52%, SR05 - 09 increasing by 266.67%, etc [4] - **Import Prices**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the cotton cotlookA remained at 75.3 [4] - **Profit Margin**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, the sugar import profit remained at 1459.0 [4] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0844, and its futures underlying is SR601 with a historical volatility of 6.69; the implied volatility of CF601C13200 is 0.0971, and its futures underlying is CF601 with a historical volatility of 7.76 [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From October 13 to 14, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8681.0, and cotton warehouse receipts remained at 2867.0 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The textile market has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally, with upward price momentum [1][2]. - The overall growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected by drought and excessive rainfall respectively, resulting in a delay in the start - up time of sugar mills. Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14950.0 yuan [1]. Market - U.S. sugar closed at 16.4, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton closed at 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8981.0, with a change of - 5.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [1] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar (in dollars) rose from 16.35 on September 28, 2025, to 16.4 on September 29, 2025, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton (in dollars) fell from 66.33 to 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [3]. Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, and Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5810.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 fell from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.32%. Xinjiang cotton spot price fell from 15000.0 yuan to 14950.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.33% [3]. Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and sugar 05 and 09 basis points have changed to varying degrees, while the spreads of CF09 - 01 and cotton 01 and 09 basis points remained unchanged [3]. Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 77.7 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1484.5 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Options - The implied volatility of SR601C5500 and SR601P5500 is 0.0859, and the historical volatility of SR601 is 6.48. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1195, and the implied volatility of CF601P13400 is 0.1234, with the historical volatility of CF601 being 7.39 [3]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9464.0 on September 28, 2025, to 8981.0 on September 29, 2025, with a change of - 5.10%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3397.0 to 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [3] Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]