商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 国庆长假将至，软商品减仓或空仓过节 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-30 报告内容摘要: 策略建议：观望为主 风险提示：全球贸易前景不明 [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5780.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5810.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 14950.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.4，涨跌幅 0.31%。美棉花收 65.4，涨跌幅-1.40%。 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8981.0 张，涨跌幅为-5.10%；郑棉仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to summer cold drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in some areas has been affected, delaying the sugar mill start - up time. [1][3] - In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was at high risk of heat damage. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textiles, the cotton price has bottom - support. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the new - season cotton has generally grown better than last year. The cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the price has the motivation to rise. [1][3] Summary According to Related Contents Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5870.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5860.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15200.0 yuan. [1] Futures Market - U.S. sugar closed at 15.51, with a change of - 2.33%. U.S. cotton closed at 67.18, with a change of - 0.72%. [1] - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 10988.0, with a change of - 2.48%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 4615.0, with a change of - 3.03%. [2] Data Comparison | Category | Item | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 17 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Outer - market Quotes | U.S. sugar (USD) | 15.88 | 15.51 | - 2.33% | | | U.S. cotton (USD) | 67.67 | 67.18 | - 0.72% | | Spot Prices | Sugar (Nanning) | 5890.0 | 5870.0 | - 0.34% | | | Sugar (Kunming) | 5865.0 | 5860.0 | - 0.09% | | | Cotton Index 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.07% | | | Cotton (Xinjiang) | 15150.0 | 15200.0 | 0.33% | | Spread Overview | SR01 - 05 | 23.0 | 19.0 | - 17.39% | | | SR05 - 09 | - 6.0 | - 9.0 | 50.00% | | | SR09 - 01 | - 17.0 | - 10.0 | - 41.18% | | | CF01 - 05 | 35.0 | 40.0 | 14.29% | | | CF05 - 09 | - 155.0 | - 150.0 | - 3.23% | | | CF09 - 01 | 120.0 | 110.0 | - 8.33% | | | Sugar 01 basis | 318.0 | 331.0 | 4.09% | | | Sugar 05 basis | 341.0 | 350.0 | 2.64% | | | Sugar 09 basis | 335.0 | 341.0 | 1.79% | | | Cotton 01 basis | 1405.0 | 1420.0 | 1.07% | | | Cotton 05 basis | 1440.0 | 1460.0 | 1.39% | | | Cotton 09 basis | 1285.0 | 1310.0 | 1.95% | | Import Prices | Cotton cotlookA | 78.1 | 78.1 | 0.00% | | Profit Margins | Sugar import profit | 1587.5 | 1587.5 | 0.00% | | Options | SR601C5500 | 0.0875 | SR601 | 6.13 | | | SR601P5500 | 0.0855 | | | | | CF601C13800 | 0.1156 | CF601 | 6.82 | | | CF601P13800 | 0.1124 | | | | Inventory Warehouse Receipts (sheets) | Sugar | 11268.0 | 10988.0 | - 2.48% | | | Cotton | 4759.0 | 4615.0 | - 3.03% | [4] Strategy Suggestion - Mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate as extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production, while summer cold drink consumption boosts demand and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but are still expected to be within the annual forecast range [1][3] - Cotton prices are also expected to oscillate. Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. With decreasing commercial inventories and the upcoming cotton textile peak season, cotton prices have bottom support [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] - U.S. sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar decreased from 16.14 to 16.05, a change of - 0.56%; U.S. cotton increased from 66.05 to 66.23, a change of 0.27% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 increased by 0.34%, and Xinjiang cotton decreased from 15400.0 to 15300.0, a change of - 0.65% [4] Spread Quick View - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of change, such as SR01 - 05 decreasing by 23.08% and CF01 - 05 decreasing by 20.00% [4] Import Prices - Cotton cotlookA decreased from 77.95 to 77.5, a change of - 0.58% [4] Profit Margins - Sugar import profit increased from 1550.0 to 1570.0, a change of 1.29% [4] Options - Implied volatilities and historical volatilities of sugar and cotton options are provided, e.g., SR601C5600 has an implied volatility of 0.0882 and SR601 has a historical volatility of 6.33 [4] Inventory Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 13202.0 to 12782.0, a change of - 3.18%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 6131.0 to 5996.0, a change of - 2.20% [4] Conclusions and Strategy Recommendations - Sugar: Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently but the annual total is still expected to be within the forecast range [3] - Cotton: Most cotton - growing areas are in the peak flowering period, with some in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage. High - temperature heat damage risks are high in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the cotton textile peak season is approaching, so cotton prices are supported [3] - Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The weakening US dollar provides support, and soft commodities will experience short - term oscillations [1] - For sugar, from July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia may affect sugar production. Summer cold drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1][3] - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage. The overall growth progress is earlier than usual. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5900.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5850.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15300.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 16.05, with a change of - 0.56%. US cotton closed at 66.23, with a change of 0.27% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12782.0, with a change of - 3.18%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5996.0, with a change of - 2.20% [2] Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, US sugar decreased by 0.56% to 16.05 US dollars, and US cotton increased by 0.27% to 66.23 US dollars [4] - **Spot Prices**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.34% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton decreased by 0.65% to 15300.0 yuan [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: There were significant changes in the price differences between different futures contracts of sugar and cotton, and the basis of sugar and cotton futures also changed to different degrees [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1550.0 on September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025 [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have corresponding implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: On September 3, 2025, compared with September 2, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 3.18% to 12782.0, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 2.20% to 5996.0 [4]

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴基斯坦洪水引发产量担忧，棉花短期震荡 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-09-02 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5910.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5825.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 15250.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.34，涨跌幅 0.00%。美棉花收 66.53，涨跌幅 0.00%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 13434.0 张，涨跌幅为-3.46%；郑棉仓单 6320.0 张， 涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The strengthening US dollar suppresses commodity prices, leading to short - term adjustments in soft commodities [1]. - For sugar, seasonal consumption growth is driven by summer cold - drink demand, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. However, the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required [1][3]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, with some areas in Xinjiang entering the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the overall growth progress is ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage. With the continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5970.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5860.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15100.0 yuan [1]. Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.39, with a change of - 0.30%. The closing price of US cotton is 67.38, with a change of - 0.91% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has a seasonal recovery. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. The continuous decline of commercial cotton inventory and the approaching peak season of cotton textile provide support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 15385.0, with a change of - 1.09%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 7104.0, with a change of - 1.31% [2]. Data Overview - **Foreign Market Quotes**: On August 25, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.39 dollars, down 0.30% from the previous day; the price of US cotton was 67.38 dollars, down 0.91% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5970.0 yuan; the price of Kunming sugar rose from 5855.0 yuan to 5860.0 yuan, an increase of 0.09%; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decrease of 0.05%; the price of Xinjiang cotton rose from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, an increase of 0.33% [4]. - **Price Difference Overview**: From August 24 to 25, 2025, the price differences of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 all changed to varying degrees, with the largest increase of 22.11% and the largest decrease of 42.86%. The basis of sugar and cotton contracts also changed, with the largest increase of 8.53% and the largest decrease of 8.08% [4]. - **Import Prices**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 78.9 [4]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the profit from sugar imports remained unchanged at 1515.0 [4]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14200, and CF601P14200, the implied volatility and historical volatility of the underlying futures are provided [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: From August 22 to 25, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15555.0 to 15385.0, a decrease of 1.09%; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7198.0 to 7104.0, a decrease of 1.31% [4]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The consumption of sugar has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. However, in July, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia experienced extreme precipitation, which may have affected the sugar cane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring [1][2]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin is at high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, so the cotton price is supported [1][2]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data on Commodity Prices and Fluctuations - **External Market Quotes**: On August 23 - 24, 2025, the price of US sugar was 16.44 dollars with a 0.00% change, and the price of US cotton was 68.0 dollars with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of Nanning sugar was 5970.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the price of Kunming sugar was 5855.0 yuan with a 0.00% change, the cotton index 328 changed from 3281 to 3280 with a 0.22% change, and the price of Xinjiang cotton changed from 15100.0 yuan to 15050.0 yuan with a - 0.33% change [3]. - **Price Spreads**: From August 23 - 24, 2025, all the price spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, and the basis of sugar and cotton contracts had a 0.00% change [3]. - **Import Prices**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the price of cotton cotlookA was 78.9 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Margins**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0 with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5700, SR601P5700, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and historical volatility data are provided [3]. - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: From August 21 - 22, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 15751.0 to 15555.0 with a - 1.24% change, and the number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7335.0 to 7198.0 with a - 1.87% change [1][3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways", and for cotton is also "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has a seasonal uptick due to summer cold - drink demand, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap. However, the overall annual import volume is still expected to be within the anticipated range. Extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may affect sugar production, and continuous monitoring is required. - Cotton is at risk of heat damage in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August due to high temperatures and low precipitation. Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported at the bottom. The overall strategy recommendation is to wait and see [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Market Information - Spot prices: Nanning sugar spot price is 5970.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5855.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15100.0 yuan [1] - Futures closing prices and changes: U.S. sugar closed at 16.36, with a change of - 1.33%; U.S. cotton closed at 67.47, with a change of - 0.09% [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Summer cold - drink demand drives seasonal recovery in sugar consumption. The widening domestic - foreign price gap has led to a significant increase in recent sugar imports [1] - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current cotton commercial inventory is decreasing, and the upcoming cotton textile peak season provides support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 15751.0, with a change of - 3.03%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 7335.0, with a change of - 1.61% [2] 3.4 Data Quick View - **Futures price changes**: U.S. sugar decreased from 16.58 to 16.36 (-1.33%), and U.S. cotton decreased from 67.53 to 67.47 (-0.09%) - **Spot price changes**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280 (-0.20%), and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained unchanged - **Spread changes**: For example, SR01 - 05 decreased from 43.0 to 42.0 (-2.33%), and CF01 - 05 increased from 15.0 to 25.0 (66.67%) - **Import price**: Cotton cotlookA remained at 78.95 - **Profit margin**: Sugar import profit remained at 1565.0 - **Options**: For SR601C5700, implied volatility is 0.08, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 6.1; for CF601C14000, implied volatility is 0.105, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying is 5.61 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - For sugar, since July, extreme precipitation in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia has affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold drink consumption drives a seasonal increase in sugar demand. Recently, sugar imports have climbed significantly due to the widening domestic - foreign price gap, but the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1]. - For cotton, most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of blooming, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are declining, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1]. Data Overview 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.47 dollars to 16.24 dollars, a decline of 1.40%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.48 dollars to 67.84 dollars, a rise of 0.53% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained unchanged at 5980.0 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased from 5860.0 yuan to 5855.0 yuan, a decline of 0.09%. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.12%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15050.0 yuan to 15100.0 yuan, a rise of 0.33% [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 17 to 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased from 42.0 to 46.0, a rise of 9.52%; SR05 - 09 increased from - 118.0 to - 110.0, a decline of 6.78%; SR09 - 01 decreased from 76.0 to 64.0, a decline of 15.79% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: CF01 - 05 increased from 30.0 to 40.0, a rise of 33.33%; CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255.0; CF09 - 01 decreased from - 285.0 to - 295.0, a decline of 3.51% [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 15 to 18, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased from 196.0 to 183.0, a decline of 6.63%; the basis of sugar 05 decreased from 238.0 to 229.0, a decline of 3.78%; the basis of sugar 09 decreased from 120.0 to 119.0, a decline of 0.83% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 increased from 1096.0 to 1109.0, a rise of 1.19%; the basis of cotton 05 increased from 1126.0 to 1149.0, a rise of 2.04%; the basis of cotton 09 increased from 1381.0 to 1404.0, a rise of 1.67% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 79.4 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1495.0 from August 15 to 18, 2025 [3]. 5. Option Information - For the SR601C5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.0832, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures SR601 is 6.18. For the SR601P5700 option, the implied volatility is 0.084. For the CF601C14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1094, and the historical volatility of the underlying futures CF601 is 5.61. For the CF601P14200 option, the implied volatility is 0.1099 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 to 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 17104.0 to 16931.0, a decline of 1.01%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 7829.0 to 7762.0, a decline of 0.86% [3] Company Information - The report is issued by CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19 - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a wholly - owned subsidiary of CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a large - scale and high - reputation futures company in China, holding various memberships in multiple exchanges and associations [1][2][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar is affected by consecutive droughts from autumn to spring, with unfavorable emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi. Beet growth is generally good, but there is a risk of pests and diseases in Inner Mongolia due to excessive rainfall. Attention should be paid to Brazil's sugar production progress and Northern Hemisphere sugar crop growth [1]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with growth 4 - 7 days ahead of previous years. High - temperature in Xinjiang in July poses a heat - damage risk. Cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in a slack season, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Weather changes and tariff uncertainties need to be monitored [1]. Data Summary 1. Price Changes - **Foreign Market Quotes**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, the price of US sugar increased by 1.66% from 16.27 to 16.54 dollars, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.30% from 66.64 to 66.84 dollars [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% from 5950.0 to 5960.0, while the price in Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.11% from 3281 to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.33% from 15100.0 to 15050.0 [3]. 2. Spread Changes - **Sugar Spread**: From August 10 to August 11, 2025, SR01 - 05 decreased by 2.33%, SR05 - 09 decreased by 2.00%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.87% [3]. - **Cotton Spread**: CF05 - 09 increased by 36.36%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 25.00%, while CF01 - 05 remained unchanged [3]. 3. Basis Changes - **Sugar Basis**: From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 remained unchanged, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by 0.34%, and the basis of sugar 09 increased by 1.38% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: The basis of cotton 01 decreased by 7.04%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by 6.79%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by 3.71% [3]. 4. Import Price and Profit - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from August 8 to August 11, 2025, and the sugar import profit also remained unchanged [3]. 5. Option Volatility - For SR601C5600, the implied volatility is 0.0856, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying SR601 is 5.86. For CF601C13600, the implied volatility is 0.107, and the historical volatility of the futures underlying CF601 is 5.03 [3]. 6. Warehouse Receipts - From August 8 to August 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.64% from 18545.0 to 18240.0, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.97% from 8252.0 to 8172.0 [3] Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has multiple memberships and observer statuses in relevant institutions [8].