Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply-demand pattern has changed, with weakening steel mill production, declining terminal ore consumption, and unresolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, leading to expected weakening demand. Meanwhile, the supply pressure is increasing due to high arrivals at domestic ports and high shipments from miners. The high-valued ore price is likely to be under pressure and decline in a high-level volatile manner, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. The focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short-term view is weakly volatile, the medium-term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply-demand pattern and the oscillating decline of ore prices [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so demand is expected to weaken. At the same time, the arrivals of ore at domestic ports are high, and miners' shipments are also at a high level. Overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, ore supply remains high, demand is expected to decrease, and the fundamentals of the ore market are weakening. The high-valued ore price is prone to be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the decline due to high rigid demand. It is expected to show a high-level volatile decline trend, and the focus should be on the production situation of steel mills [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term view on Iron Ore 2601 is bearish, the medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways with a weak bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, as industry concerns are fermenting and the ore price is under downward pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Although the terminal consumption of ore remains high and the rigid demand is good, which supports the ore price, the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, industry concerns are fermenting, and the positive effect of demand is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports is high, miners' shipments remain at a high level, overseas ore supply is active at high prices, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. Currently, the ore supply is increasing, industry concerns are fermenting, the positive effect of ore demand is weakening, the fundamentals of the ore market are starting to deteriorate, and the over - valued ore price will be under downward pressure. However, due to the high - level rigid demand for ore, there is resistance to the downward movement. A subsequent downward trend will require steel mills to cut production, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the accumulation of contradictions in the iron ore fundamentals, with the supply returning to a high level while the demand is likely to weaken, despite the support from the warm atmosphere in the overseas commodity market during the holiday [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions leading to high - level oscillations of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the SGX iron ore swaps oscillated upwards, and the spot price increased slightly. However, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Steel mill production is weak, the terminal consumption of ore has declined from a high level, and contradictions in the steel market are accumulating with weakening demand resilience. - The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports during the holiday remained high, overseas ore shipments were active under high ore prices, and domestic ore supply recovered, causing the iron ore supply to return to a high level. - Overall, the warm atmosphere in the overseas commodity market during the holiday supported the ore price, but with the supply back at a high level and demand likely to weaken, the fundamental contradictions of iron ore are accumulating. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is under pressure [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening, with increasing inventory. Although the terminal consumption of ore remains high, restocking is coming to an end, and the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating. The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, short - term (within a week): weak and volatile; medium - term (two weeks to one month): volatile; intraday: weak and volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening fundamentals and the pressure on the ore price [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Inventory is continuously increasing. Terminal consumption of ore remains high, but restocking is ending. The contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, and the positive effects are weakening. The arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports is increasing, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high level. The supply of iron ore is increasing. Although the pre - holiday ore demand provides support for the ore price, the supply is rising, and the demand is weakening due to concerns about negative feedback. The fundamental contradictions will accumulate, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure to decline. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2].

2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局走弱，高估值矿价承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局走弱，库存迎来显著累库，钢厂生产趋稳，终端消耗高位回升，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但节前补库趋于尾声，而钢市矛盾不断累积，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到 货如期回升，而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。 目前来 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 铁矿石供需格局弱稳运行，钢厂生产平稳，终端消耗维持高位，矿石需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求存有隐忧。与此同时，国内港口到货如期回升， 而矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应相对偏高，叠加内矿供应恢复，供应压力在增加。总之，矿石需 求表现尚可，给予矿价支撑 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 23 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 补库利好趋弱，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局迎来变化，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，需求表现尚可，给予矿价支 撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且补库利好趋弱，需求韧性将转弱。与此同时，国内港口到货大幅增加， 海外矿商发运则是高位回落，海外供应依旧偏高，叠加内矿供应也在恢复，供应压力有所增加。目前 来看， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局在走弱，钢厂生产平稳，矿石终端消耗维持高位，叠加节前补库，需求表现尚可， 给予矿价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾不断累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽延续回落， 但海外矿商发运大幅增加，再创下年内单周新高，海外供应重回高位，且内矿供应在恢复，矿石供应 压力持续增加。目前来看，矿石需求表现尚可，叠加市场情绪回暖，高位矿价震荡上行，但需求料将 趋弱，供应也在回升，基本面并无实质性改善，叠加估值相对偏高，节前走势谨慎乐观，谨防产业矛 盾激化。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 供需格局在变，矿价高位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，矿石终端消耗小幅回升，叠加节前钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，给予矿 价支撑，但下游钢市矛盾在累积，且钢材利润持续收缩，矿石需求韧性趋弱。相反，国内港口到货环 比下降，但海外矿商发运则是大增并创下年内单周新高，海外供应显著回升，而内矿供应也在恢复， 矿石供应 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 9 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2601 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 需求表现尚可，矿价高位运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局有所变化，矿石终端消耗如期回升，且假期钢厂补库，需求表现尚可，继续给予 矿价支撑，需注意的钢市矛盾在累积，需求韧性料将趋弱。与此同时，国内港口到货虽回落，但 ...