投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 铁矿石供需格局走弱，年末钢厂检修增多，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况未好转，矿石需 求延续弱势局面，继续拖累矿价。与此同时，国内港口到货虽有所回落，但海外矿商发运环比增加， 且两者仍处年内高位，海外矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应相对平稳，铁矿石供应维持高位。总之， 铁矿石需求持续走弱，而供应维持高位，矿市基本面表现偏弱，高估值矿价易承压，相对利好则是市 场情绪偏暖，多空因素博弈下矿价将偏弱震荡运行，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡偏弱 | 需求持续走弱，矿价震荡回落 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局偏弱，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且盈利状况不佳，需求延续弱势 局面。与此同时，国内港口到货虽有所回落，但海外矿商发运环比增加，且两者仍处年内高位，海外 矿石供应表现积极，而内矿供应相对平稳，铁矿石供应维持高位。总之，短期利多发酵支撑矿价重回 高位，但铁矿石需求弱势运行，而供应维持高位，矿市基本面表现偏弱，高估值矿价继续承压，上行 驱动不强，多空因素博弈下矿价延续高位震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | ...

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：现货价格偏强，但未来供需压力仍存 ◼ 供应：海外发运周环比回落，同比维持相对高位； | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 全球发货量 4 | 当周值 3278 . | 环 比 -238 0 . | 同 184 | 比 8 . | 全球发货 | 47W2025 146482 1 . | 47W2024 143470 3 . | 累计同比 3011 8 . | 累计同比% 2 . | 1% | | | 澳发货量 4 巴发货量 1 | 1804 . 793 | -181 3 . -54 8 | 56 . -6 | 4 5 | 澳发货 巴发货 | 8 ...

Report Overview - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is not provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore under pressure due to unchanged supply - demand conditions. The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weakly volatile [1][2] Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the ore price is under pressure [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. Steel mill production is stable, terminal ore consumption is weakening, and steel mills' profitability is poor, so the demand remains weak. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals have increased significantly, overseas miners' shipments are still at a high level this year despite a slight decline, and domestic ore supply is stable, keeping the ore supply at a high level. Although short - term positive factors support the ore price to rise, the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved, and the price is likely to be under pressure and run weakly, depending on the performance of steel [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has declined. This week, the average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills both decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis. With the unimproved profitability of steel mills and production restrictions, the demand for iron ore continues to be weak. Meanwhile, although the arrivals at domestic ports have been falling, the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the annual high. According to the shipping schedule, the arrivals will rise again. The supply of foreign ore is positive, and the domestic ore production is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. Currently, the iron ore demand is weakly stable, and the supply is high, so the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price is under pressure. The positive factor is the support from the switching of the arbitrage logic, and the ore price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 15,054.65, with a week - on - week decrease of 75.06, an increase of 512.17 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 264.73 compared to the same period [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,001.23, with a week - on - week decrease of 74.78, an increase of 151.37 compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 171.81 compared to the same period [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,268.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 472.30, an increase of 239.80 compared to last month, and a decrease of 513.10 compared to the same period. The global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,516.40, with a week - on - week increase of 447.38, an increase of 128.05 compared to last month, and an increase of 505.50 compared to the same period [1]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 236.28, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.60, a decrease of 0.08 compared to last month, and an increase of 0.48 compared to the same period. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 329.92, with a week - on - week increase of 2.97, an increase of 9.76 compared to last month, and an increase of 2.94 compared to the same period. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 291.68, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.95, an increase of 0.06 compared to last month, and a decrease of 0.93 compared to the same period. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at main ports is 75.08, with a week - on - week decrease of 30.88, a decrease of 7.10 compared to last month, and a decrease of 34.90 compared to the same period [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend with weak upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products. The current situation of the iron ore market is weak, and there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, with high supply and limited improvement in demand [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are expected to be oscillating, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA60 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Although the terminal consumption of ore has increased, the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with limited room for improvement. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has been continuously decreasing, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and reached a high for the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. The supply of foreign ore remains active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable, so the ore supply remains at a high level. - Thanks to the switch of the arbitrage logic and the improvement of ore demand, the ore price has rebounded from a low level. However, due to the high supply, there is no substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the ore market, and the upward driving force is not strong [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved, with continuous increase in inventory. Although the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded due to steel mill复产, the improvement in ore demand is questionable as the profitability of steel mills has not improved. The supply of ore remains high. The recent rebound in ore prices is driven by the change in the arbitrage logic, but under the real - world logic, ore prices will continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory reached 15,129.71, a week - on - week increase of 230.88 and a month - to - date increase of 587.23 compared to the end of last month. It was 150.80 less than the same period last year [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory was 9,076.01, a week - on - week increase of 66.07 and a month - to - date increase of 226.15 compared to the end of last month. It was 22.28 more than the same period last year [2] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals were 2,741.20, a week - on - week decrease of 477.20 but a month - to - date increase of 712.10 compared to last month. It was 414.20 more than the same period last year [2] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments were 3,069.02, a week - on - week decrease of 144.82 and a month - to - date decrease of 319.33 compared to last month. It was 48.32 more than the same period last year [2] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production was 236.88, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 and a month - to - date increase of 0.52 compared to last month. It was 0.94 more than the same period last year [2] - 45 - port average daily port clearance volume was 326.95, a week - on - week increase of 6.02 and a month - to - date increase of 6.79 compared to last month. It was 1.29 more than the same period last year [2] - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption was 292.63, a week - on - week increase of 3.93 and a month - to - date increase of 1.01 compared to last month. It was 0.26 less than the same period last year [2] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions was 106.93, a week - on - week decrease of 18.15 but a month - to - date increase of 24.75 compared to last month. It was 2.81 less than the same period last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the ore price is under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production weakens, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the weak demand in the steel market suppresses the ore price. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the ore price under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a large inventory build - up. Steel mill production weakens under production restrictions, and ore terminal consumption declines. The weak demand in the steel market restrains the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has recovered as expected, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined but are still at a high level this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, leading to a weakening of the ore price. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure and weakens under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all described as weak - oscillating. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening of the supply - demand pattern and the weak operation of the ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Port inventories are rapidly accumulating, steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with the weak demand pattern difficult to change, which continues to drag down the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, while the shipments of overseas miners have slightly declined from the high level, but the overall supply of foreign ore is still active. Coupled with the increase in domestic ore supply, the supply pressure of ore is relatively large. In summary, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals of ore are not good [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the real - world logic dominates, and the ore price is under pressure to fall [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing, and the demand in the steel market remains weak. The supply of iron ore is high, and the high - valued ore price is prone to fall under the pressure of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world logic dominates, and the ore price is under pressure to fall [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, and the demand in the steel market remains weak. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, and although overseas miners' shipments have decreased, both remain at high levels. The supply of domestic ore has also increased. Overall, the supply of iron ore is high, and the high - valued ore price is prone to fall under the pressure of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].