[Music] Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the trends of today, then our new stocks tomorrow. There's a lot to keep track of, so we're focusing on what you need to know to get the curve. Here's some of the trends we're going to be diving right into.Drama jumping from the screen to the boardroom. The future of Warner Brothers Discovery hangs in the balance as Paramount comes out swinging. in its effort to acquire the media giant.We're cal ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Asian stocks ended mixed, with concerns over AI demand and margins following Microsoft's lowered sales targets [1] - Investors are cautious ahead of upcoming rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1] - The dollar faced pressure due to weak U.S. data, increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut [1] Group 2: Regional Market Performance - China's Shanghai Composite index fell slightly to 3,875.79 amid worries over slowing services growth and a prolonged property slump [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose by 0.68 percent to 25,935.90 [2] - The Nikkei average surged 2.33 percent to 51,028.42, reaching a three-week closing high [3] - The broader Topix index increased by 1.92 percent to 3,398.21, with notable gains in Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group [3] - Seoul's Kospi average slipped 0.19 percent to 4,028.51, led by losses in chipmakers [4] - Australian markets saw modest gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 up 0.27 percent to 8,618.40, driven by strong copper prices [5] - New Zealand's S&P/NX-50 index declined by 0.49 percent to 13,515.62, ending a two-day winning streak [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. private sector employment unexpectedly declined by 32,000 in November, contrary to expectations of a 10,000 job increase [6] - U.S. services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November, with the Dow rising by 0.9 percent and the S&P 500 adding 0.3 percent [7]

Economic Outlook - European stocks are expected to open higher due to a weak ADP jobs report that supports the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut, alleviating concerns about Microsoft AI software demand [1] - The U.S. economic calendar is light, with a focus on weekly jobless claims data ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week [1] Market Performance - Japanese markets outperformed, with the Nikkei average rising nearly 2% as investors shifted from chip makers to robotics companies like Fanuc and Yaskawa [2] - U.S. stocks rose overnight, with the Dow increasing by 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.2%, and the S&P 500 adding 0.3% [5] - European stocks ended mixed, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 gaining 0.1%, while the German DAX and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 both fell by 0.1% [5] Employment Data - The ADP report indicated a surprising decline in private sector employment by 32,000 in November, contrasting with an upwardly revised increase of 47,000 jobs in October, while economists had anticipated a rise of 10,000 jobs [4] - Separate data showed that U.S. services activity expanded at a slightly faster pace in November [4] Commodity Prices - Gold prices dipped below $4,200 per ounce, while oil prices increased following Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, indicating potential supply constraints [2]

Economic Overview - U.S. private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, reversing October's gains and indicating renewed labor-market weakness [1] - The ADP data showed broad declines led by small businesses and major sectors like manufacturing and professional services, with pay growth continuing to slow [1] Market Reaction - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 400 points, closing nearly 0.9% higher at 47,882.90, driven by expectations of an upcoming rate cut [2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains, closing at 6,849.72 and 23,454.09 respectively [2] Company Performance: Salesforce - Salesforce reported third-quarter revenue of $10.26 billion, slightly below expectations, but adjusted earnings of $3.25 per share exceeded estimates of $2.86 [3] - Remaining performance obligations increased by 11% to $29.4 billion, with AI-driven products generating $1.4 billion in ARR [3] - The company raised its full-year revenue and earnings outlook [3] Company Performance: Snowflake - Snowflake's stock increased by 2.05%, closing at $265, but dropped 7.9% in after-hours trading to $244.05 [4] - The company posted third-quarter revenue of $1.21 billion, with adjusted earnings of 35 cents, beating estimates [5] - Revenue rose 29% year-over-year, and remaining performance obligations jumped 37% to $7.88 billion, although slower fourth-quarter operating margins were forecasted [5] Company Performance: UiPath - UiPath shares rose 3.92%, closing at $14.86, and jumped 6.5% in after-hours trading to $15.82 [6] - The company reported third-quarter revenue of $411 million and adjusted earnings of 16 cents per share, exceeding expectations [7] - ARR increased by 11% year-over-year to $1.78 billion, with strong margins and positive free cash flow reported [7] Company Performance: iRobot - iRobot's stock surged by 73.85%, closing at $3.39, following reports of a potential executive order from the Trump administration to boost the robotics industry [8] - The stock reached a high of $3.50 and a low of $2.12, but slipped 2.4% in after-hours trading [8] Company Performance: Netflix - Netflix shares fell by 4.93%, closing at $103.96, with an intraday high of $106.87 and a low of $102.03 [9] - The company reportedly explored acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming operations, framing the deal as a consumer cost-cutting bundle with HBO Max [10] - The merger discussions faced political pushback, including criticism from the Pentagon and GOP objections over Netflix's potential market power [10]

The US Nov ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by -32,000, signaling a weaker labor market than expected, with the biggest decline in more than 2.5 years.US MBA mortgage applications fell -1.4% in the week ended November 28, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +2.5% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index down -4.4%. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell -8 bp to 6.32% from 6.40% in the prior week.AI demand concerns are another negative for stocks after “The Information” news service reported ...

US stocks edged up on Wednesday as a surprise decline in private-sector employment revealed cracks in the job market, but also reinforced bets on a Fed rate cut next week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.9%, or over 400 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) added 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed 0.2% after the major gauges finished Tuesday with gains across the board. The ADP report looked to add fuel to the rate-cut fire, as nearly 90% of bets sit on a quarter-point redu ...

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY) fell slightly by -0.08% on Tuesday due to a decline in T-note yields and reduced liquidity demand for the dollar as stocks strengthened [1] - The swaps market indicates a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10, which is bearish for the dollar [1][5] - The OECD raised its US 2025 GDP forecast to +2.0% from +1.8%, which provided some support for the dollar [2][4] Group 2 - President Trump is expected to announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026, with Kevin Hassett seen as a likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar due to his dovish stance [3] - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.12% as it recovered from early losses, supported by a stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI and the OECD's raised Eurozone GDP estimate [6]

Core Insights - November saw a record outflow of $3.79 billion from Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a strategic shift by long-term institutional investors rather than panic selling [1][6][10] - Bitcoin's price has experienced significant volatility, dropping from over $109,000 to a low of around $80,000 in November, with a slight rebound to near $90,000 [3][5][7] - The current market sentiment reflects weakening demand and caution among institutions, with a notable lack of crisis driving the outflows [2][8][9] Market Trends - Over the past three months, Bitcoin's price momentum has declined, with a peak of approximately $126,000 in early October followed by a drop of over 30% by late November [4][5][7] - Institutional investors, including BlackRock's IBIT, have shown a cautious approach, with significant withdrawals indicating a shift in how Bitcoin is perceived as a high-beta macro asset [9][10] Institutional Behavior - The outflows from Bitcoin ETFs are attributed to year-end tax selling, where investors locked in losses before the end of the year, reflecting a deliberate cooling of conviction rather than emotional selling [10] - The shift in strategy among long-term holders suggests a reevaluation of Bitcoin's role in portfolios, with adjustments based on macroeconomic signals rather than maintaining long-term allocations [6][9] Future Outlook - The market is closely monitoring whether Bitcoin can hold above $90,000, with key resistance levels identified between $93,000 to $96,000 and $100,000 to $108,000 [15] - Analysts predict that a combination of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a reversal of ETF outflows, and Bitcoin breaking above $100,000 could lead to a price range of $150,000 to $200,000 by mid-2026 [16][18] - A more conservative outlook suggests Bitcoin may trade between $100,000 and $130,000 through most of 2026, assuming modest Fed rate cuts and stabilized ETF flows [20]

Group 1 - The November-April period is typically the strongest for stocks, with SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) averaging a return of 3.09% in November, the best monthly performance of the year [1] - In contrast, SPY had a weak November performance this year, closing up only 0.19%, marking its weakest November since 2021 [2] - The QQQ Invesco ETF, heavily weighted towards mega-cap tech stocks, fell 1.56% in November, its first negative November since 2018 and the worst since 2011 [2] Group 2 - The market is anticipating a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with concerns about inflation, job market stability, and a potential systemic AI bubble affecting investor sentiment [4] - Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming 2026 midterm elections could further impact market performance, as historical data shows equities underperforming in the year leading up to elections [5][6] - Markets generally exhibit a pattern of underperformance before elections, followed by significant outperformance afterward, highlighting the aversion to uncertainty among investors [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a slight decline in early Asian trading, with market sensitivity to Federal Reserve rate cut indications highlighted by Sucden Financial [1] Group 1 - The price action for precious metals, including gold, is expected to remain highly sensitive to any signals regarding potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]