AXIS Capital (AXS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call May 01, 2025 08:30 AM ET Speaker0 Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Clifford Gallant, Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Speaker1 Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter twenty twenty five conference call. Our earnings press release and financial supplement were issued last night. If you would like copies, please visit the Investor Information section of our website at axiscapital.com. We set ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $8 million or $0.16 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $137 million or $2.62 per diluted share in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 42% decrease in realized average net selling prices [27][28] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $40 million, down from $200 million in the same quarter last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13% compared to 40% in Q1 2024 [27][28] - Total revenues decreased to $300 million in Q1 2025 from $504 million in Q1 2024, driven by lower average gross selling prices [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales volume increased by 2% to 2.2 million short tons in Q1 2025 from 2.1 million short tons in the same quarter last year, with production volume rising by 10% to 2.3 million short tons [14][15] - The company achieved a gross price realization of 83% for Q1 2025, slightly below the targeted range of 85% to 90% [12][28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average premium low vol index prices dropped by 40% to $168 per short ton in Q1 2025 from $280 per short ton in Q1 2024 [8] - The primary index, the POV FOB Australia, ended Q1 2025 at $153 per short ton, down $25 from the end of Q4 2024 [12] - Global pig iron production decreased by 0.2% in Q1 2025 compared to the prior year, with iron production in China growing by 0.8% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational efficiency and cost management to navigate weak market conditions, while continuing to progress on the Blue Creek project, which is on budget and schedule [6][21] - The Blue Creek project is expected to produce 1 million short tons in 2025, with a long-term capacity of 6 million short tons [23][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing weak market conditions but expressed confidence in operational performance and the ability to manage costs effectively [6][34] - The company anticipates that weak market conditions may persist, impacting steelmaking coal prices, but expects stable demand from contracted customers [34][36] Other Important Information - The company spent $79 million on capital expenditures and mine development in Q1 2025, with $69 million allocated to CapEx [16][21] - Total available liquidity at the end of Q1 2025 was $617 million, providing sufficient funds to complete the Blue Creek project [32][21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing realization expectations - Management indicated that pricing realization could remain between 80% to 85% in the current market environment [38] Question: Cost sustainability in the near term - Management confirmed that the current cost level of $120 per ton is sustainable if prices remain stable [42] Question: Impact of tariffs on longwall shields - Management clarified that there would be no tariff impacts on the longwall shields being imported [43] Question: Factors driving lower price realizations - Management explained that transportation differentials and market conditions in Asia are significant factors affecting price realizations [48] Question: Production outlook and potential curtailments - Management acknowledged the challenges in the U.S. met coal market and indicated that some production curtailments may occur [52] Question: Capital expenditures for Blue Creek - Management detailed that the remaining CapEx for Blue Creek would primarily cover final construction and labor costs [56] Question: Working capital trends - Management indicated that working capital is expected to build in the second quarter due to production at Blue Creek [60] Question: U.S. pricing reflection of the market - Management expressed confidence that U.S. prices are reflective of current market conditions, with expectations for the discount to tighten over time [65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a net loss of $8 million or $0.16 per diluted share, compared to a net income of $137 million or $2.62 per diluted share in Q1 2024, primarily due to a 42% decrease in realized average net selling prices [25][27] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $40 million, down from $200 million in the same quarter last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13% compared to 40% in Q1 2024 [25][26] - Total revenues decreased to $300 million in Q1 2025 from $504 million in Q1 2024, driven by lower average gross selling prices [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales volume increased by 2% to 2.2 million short tons in Q1 2025 from 2.1 million short tons in Q1 2024, with production volume rising by 10% to 2.3 million short tons [14][15] - The company achieved a gross price realization of 83% for Q1 2025, slightly below the targeted range of 85% to 90% [12][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Average premium low vol index prices dropped by 40% or $112 per short ton compared to Q1 2024, averaging $168 per short ton in Q1 2025 [7][12] - The primary index, the POV FOB Australia, ended Q1 2025 at $153 per short ton, down $25 from the end of Q4 2024 [12] - Global pig iron production decreased by 0.2% in Q1 2025 compared to the prior year, with iron production in China growing by 0.8% [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing costs tightly and operating efficiently in response to weak market conditions, while making progress on the Blue Creek project, which is on budget and schedule [6][17] - The Blue Creek project is expected to produce incremental annualized production of at least 4.8 million short tons after startup, enhancing the company's cost curve positioning [22][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged ongoing challenges in the global steel market due to China's overcapacity and trade policy uncertainties, but expects demand from India to increase [34] - The company anticipates weak market conditions may persist, putting downward pressure on steelmaking coal prices, but remains optimistic about operational performance [32][34] Other Important Information - The company spent $79 million on CapEx and mine development in Q1 2025, with $69 million allocated to CapEx and $11 million to Blue Creek project development [16][20] - Total available liquidity at the end of Q1 2025 was $617 million, consisting of cash, investments, and available credit [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pricing assumptions for the current market environment - Management indicated that a price realization of 80% to 85% is reasonable given current market conditions [36] Question: Sustainability of cost levels in Q2 - Management confirmed that current cost levels are expected to be sustainable if prices remain stable [39] Question: Factors driving lower price realizations - Management explained that transportation differentials and market dynamics in Asia are significant factors affecting price realizations [45][46] Question: Production outlook and potential curtailments - Management noted that while there are rumors of production issues, it is difficult to estimate the overall impact on U.S. production [50] Question: Clarification on Blue Creek project CapEx - Management clarified that remaining CapEx will primarily be for final construction and labor, with a significant portion already accounted for [54][56] Question: Impact of shipping Blue Creek coal on costs - Management stated that while there may be some additional costs, they are focused on mitigating any significant impact [66][68]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported core FFO of $0.19 per diluted share, with same store property cash NOI up 0.4% excluding nonrecurring revenue items from the previous year [26][27] - Expenses increased approximately 5% year over year, driven by real estate taxes, payroll costs, and repair and maintenance costs, partially offset by higher tenant reimbursement income and growth in rental revenue [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Manhattan office portfolio is 93% leased, with a slight decrease from 94.2% in the previous quarter, and the company expects leasing and occupancy gains for the full year [12][19] - The Observatory generated NOI of approximately $15 million, with a 7% year-over-year change attributed to the shift of the Easter holiday to the second quarter and adverse weather conditions [28] - The multifamily portfolio achieved 99% occupancy and 8% year-over-year rent growth in the first quarter [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The leasing environment in New York City remains active, particularly for modernized buildings with good amenities, as evidenced by the company leasing approximately 230,000 square feet in the first quarter [6][12] - The company has seen a healthy pipeline of leasing activity, with 160,000 square feet of leases in negotiation and several proposals exchanged with tenant prospects across various industries [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on five priorities: leasing space, selling tickets to the Observatory, managing the balance sheet, identifying growth opportunities, and achieving sustainability goals [11][24] - The company aims to maintain a strong balance sheet with no floating rate debt exposure and a well-laddered debt maturity schedule, positioning itself to weather economic uncertainties [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges potential macroeconomic risks but emphasizes the company's strong position due to long-term leases, high lease percentages, and diverse income streams [5][6] - The company remains optimistic about its leasing and occupancy gains, with expectations for core FFO guidance of $0.86 to $0.89 for 2025 [28][29] Other Important Information - The company repaid $100 million in Series A unsecured notes and $120 million in revolving credit facility balance during the quarter, and it has been actively repurchasing shares [24] - The company is prepared to act on investment opportunities across retail, multifamily, and office sectors, focusing on New York City [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How are leasing conversations unfolding with different tenant categories amid current economic conditions? - Management reported no changes in lease negotiations over the last sixty days, with strong activity across various industries [32][33] Question: What is the expected trend for CapEx in the coming years? - Management indicated a reduction in CapEx is expected as the portfolio stabilizes, with a good run rate established in the first quarter [35][39] Question: How is leasing activity in Williamsburg progressing? - Management noted strong activity in Williamsburg, with recognizable brand names showing interest in available spaces [41][43] Question: How does the company prioritize capital allocation opportunities? - The company balances capital allocation between maintaining operating runway, potential buybacks, and investment opportunities as they arise [44][46] Question: What is the company's perspective on tourism and potential impacts from geopolitical tensions? - Management has not detected significant shifts in demand and remains focused on operational discipline and marketing strategies to mitigate any potential downturns [56][58]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue increased from $29.3 million in Q1 2024 to $30.1 million in Q1 2025, representing a 2.5% year-over-year growth [12] - Quarter-over-quarter, total revenue grew by 2.7% from $29.3 million in Q4 2024 to $30.1 million in Q1 2025 [13] - Funds from operations (FFO) decreased slightly by $77,000 quarter-over-quarter, remaining at $12.7 million in Q1 2025 [14] - Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) totaled $14.7 million in Q1 2025, approximately $100,000 higher than Q4 2024, with a per diluted common share basis remaining at $0.55 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Occupancy and weighted average remaining lease term remained flat at 90.9% and 6.7 years, respectively [6] - The company acquired a behavioral residential treatment facility for approximately $9.7 million, with anticipated tenant improvements of $1.4 million [7] - The company signed definitive purchase and sale agreements for seven properties with an expected investment of $169.5 million, with expected returns ranging from 9.1% to 9.75% [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold a building in Ohio for approximately $400,000, receiving net proceeds of approximately $600,000 [9] - The geriatric psychiatric hospital operator, a tenant in six properties, represents an annual base rent of $3.2 million, with incremental operating improvements noted [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to be selective in acquisitions and is evaluating capital recycling opportunities to fund near-term acquisitions [10][22] - The company aims to maintain modest leverage levels while exploring various capital options, including potential asset sales and draws on the revolver [10][22] - The company has a solid pipeline of acquisitions expected to close over the next three years, totaling approximately $169 million [49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the stability of tenants and the overall health care sector, indicating no immediate negative impacts from macroeconomic factors [44] - The company is actively monitoring the geriatric psychiatric hospital operator's sale process and expects more clarity by the end of Q2 or early Q3 [19][40] - Management remains cautious about raising equity at current share prices and is focused on selected capital recycling [22][25] Other Important Information - The company declared a dividend of $0.47 per common share for Q1 2025, marking a continuous increase since its IPO [10] - The company is not currently issuing shares under its ATM program due to low share prices [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on the geriatric psychiatric hospital operator's sale process - Management indicated that the operator is in an active sale process with potential buyers, and more clarity is expected by the end of Q2 or early Q3 [18][19] Question: Acquisition outlook and capital allocation - Management confirmed a healthy pipeline of acquisitions but noted a cautious approach to raising equity at current prices, focusing on selected asset sales and revolver draws [20][22] Question: Concerns about smaller tenants - Management reported stability among tenants and no significant issues arising in Q1, with a positive macro outlook for health care providers [44] Question: Conditions for the $169 million pipeline - Management clarified that the pipeline is solid and expected to close over three years, with flexibility in decision-making based on project evaluations [49] Question: Position of notes in the event of asset sales by the psychiatric operator - Management explained the company's second lien position on accounts receivable and first lien on other assets, indicating a structured approach to creditor relationships [51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported funds from operations (FFO) of approximately $2.7 million or $0.03 per share for Q1 2025 [5] - A GAAP net loss of about $21.4 million or $0.21 per share was recorded for the same period [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The directly owned portfolio was approximately 69.2% leased at the end of Q1 2025, down from 70.3% at the end of Q4 2024 [9] - Economic occupancy for the directly owned portfolio was approximately 67.7% at the end of Q1 2025, compared to 68.6% at the end of 2024 [9] - Approximately 60,000 square feet of total leasing was finalized during Q1 2025, consisting entirely of renewals and expansions [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has tracked approximately 800,000 square feet of prospective new tenants, with about 300,000 square feet of prospects identifying FSP assets on their shortlist [11] - Scheduled lease expirations for the remainder of 2025 total approximately 246,000 square feet, representing about 5.1% of FSP's directly owned portfolio [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on advancing leasing of space in its existing property portfolio and pursuing property dispositions to repay debt [6][7] - The company is actively considering operational adjustments and strategic transactions to unlock the full value of its property portfolio [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted macroeconomic uncertainties, including tariff headlines, that could impact corporate leasing decisions and investment in office properties [7] - The company remains confident in its direction but is open to various strategies to maximize shareholder value [9] Other Important Information - Since initiating its current disposition strategy in late 2020, the company has completed approximately $1.1 billion in property sales, leading to a nearly 75% reduction in corporate indebtedness [13] - National office transaction volumes rose by 22% in 2024 and accelerated in Q1 2025, finishing 31% higher year over year [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insight on why leasing was solely executed for renewals during Q1 - Management indicated that new leases had stalled but they are pursuing renewal transactions and expect positive news in Q2 and Q3 [17][18] Question: Which geographies currently depict greater strength in the portfolio? - Management highlighted strong demand in Texas, particularly in Houston, with Dallas showing some improvement, while Denver and Minneapolis are better than previous years but not as robust as Texas suburbs [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated $27.9 million in loans held for investment, a 23% decrease from $36.4 million in the prior sequential quarter [5] - Loan principal payments and payoffs were $23 million, down 33% from $34.3 million in the previous quarter [5] - Non-performing assets decreased to $1.4 million from $2.5 million, indicating improved asset quality [6] - The allowance for credit losses to gross loans held for investment decreased from 66 basis points to 62 basis points [9] - Net interest margin increased by 11 basis points to 3.02% compared to 2.91% in the previous quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loans held for investment increased by approximately $5.4 million compared to the previous quarter, driven by an increase in single-family loans [6] - There were declines in multifamily, commercial real estate, construction, and commercial business loans [6] - The company has seen more consumer demand for single-family adjustable-rate mortgage products due to higher fixed-rate mortgage interest rates [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic uncertainty has increased due to current fiscal policy, impacting real estate investor activity [6] - The company noted a shift in consumer demand towards adjustable-rate mortgage products as fixed rates rise [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for disciplined growth of the loan portfolio, recognizing the shift to looser monetary policy [13] - The strategy includes maintaining cash dividends and utilizing stock buyback programs as a capital management tool [14] - The company is focused on improving operating efficiencies to lower operating expenses [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the potential for net interest margin expansion in the upcoming quarter, albeit at a slower pace than the current quarter [11] - The company is monitoring commercial real estate loans, particularly those secured by office buildings, and remains confident in their performance [7] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty but indicated a commitment to growth [6][13] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 52,000 shares of common stock in the March quarter [14] - For the fiscal year to date, the company has distributed approximately $2.8 million in cash dividends and repurchased approximately $3.1 million worth of common stock [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about CD growth in the quarter - Management indicated that the growth was due to a remix of the liability profile and the opening of a government deposit desk, allowing for liquidity to pay down Federal Home Loan Bank advances [17] Question: Were new CDs at a better rate than wholesale market? - Management noted that the rates were similar to wholesale, and the strategy was adjusted due to lower short-term rates [18] Question: Thoughts on prepayment activity over the next twelve months? - Management stated that prepayment activity is difficult to predict, with lower prepayments observed in the March quarter due to mortgage rate volatility [28] Question: Capital allocation and potential buyback adjustments? - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining capital during uncertainty but indicated that if stock prices decline, they would consider repurchasing more shares [32][34] Question: Changes in loan competition behavior? - Management noted no significant changes in competition but acknowledged aggressive pricing in the multifamily loan market [35][36]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q1 2025, the company reported investment income of $6 million or $0.89 per share, an increase of $600,000 or $0.08 per share from the prior quarter [13] - Total expenses for the quarter were $2.6 million or $0.38 per share, an increase of $600,000 or $0.08 per share, primarily due to interest expense on term preferred shares [13] - The net investment income was $3.4 million or $0.50 per share, while the net unrealized loss on investments was $9.6 million or $1.41 per share, leading to a net loss of $6.1 million or $0.90 per share [13][14] - As of March 31, 2025, total assets were $173.7 million and total net assets were $124.6 million, resulting in a net asset value per share of $18.33 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consists of 50 unique CLO positions managed by 33 distinct CLO managers, with approximately 1,700 unique loans across over 30 industry sectors [6] - The weighted average GAAP yield on the portfolio was 15.57% at March 31, an increase of 68 basis points from the prior quarter [7] - The company invested $30.8 million in primary CLOs during Q1 2025, and approximately 9% of the portfolio was refinanced or reset [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, $40.56 billion in new US CLOs were issued, and $96 billion in CLOs were refinanced [9] - The LSTA indexes trailing twelve-month default rate ended the first quarter at 82 basis points, 11 basis points lower than at the end of 2024 [10] - The company noted that CLO portfolios experienced credit stresses at roughly half the default rate of the broader market [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize total return while generating high current income through investments primarily in equity and junior debt tranches of CLOs [5] - The investment strategy focuses on maintaining a sustainable distribution policy and protecting net asset value (NAV) [5] - The company plans to utilize leverage opportunistically when attractive investment opportunities arise [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the CLO market's resilience despite tariff uncertainties and believes CLOs provide an efficient way to access senior secured corporate loans [16] - The company anticipates a slowdown in CLO primary issuance and refinancing activity but expects CLOs to capitalize on any loan market volatility [9][10] - Management noted that early signs show CLO managers have proactively reduced exposure to tariff-sensitive issuers [11] Other Important Information - The company distributed dividends of $0.22 per common share in January, February, and March, with plans to continue this distribution in April [14] - The annualized dividend yield based on the share price at the end of March was 13.9% [15] Q&A Session Summary - No specific questions or answers were documented in the provided content, as the Q&A session concluded without detailed interactions [17][18]

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