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大宗商品价格展望:2026 年第一季度有望上行-metal&ROCK -The Price Deck – 1Q26 Upside Ahead
2025-12-16 03:30
Key risks: With the BCOM Precious Metals Index up 66% and Industrial Metals up 13% (copper +35%), prices have already moved a lot, bringing demand destruction risks and disconnecting from cost curves. Chinese copper demand has slowed recently, while central bank gold buying has also slowed at higher prices. A more sustained global growth slowdown would weigh on prices, while energy price weakness and elevated by-product credits could drag down cost curves. | M December 15, 2025 09:00 PM GMT | | Foundation | ...
Fed Governor Stephen Miran: I don't see tariffs as a major driver of inflation
Youtube· 2025-12-15 16:57
Welcome back. Our next guest issued a dissenting vote at last week's big Fed meeting, pushing for even steeper rate cuts. Joining us here at Post 9 in a CNBC exclusive is Federal Reserve Governor Steven Myron.Governor, it's great to have you back at Post 9. Welcome. >> Good day.Thanks for having me back. >> So, I know you just gave this big speech at Columbia about inflation. And before we dive into that, maybe you could just explain why you dissented for even sharper rate cuts when some of your colleagues ...
Fed’s Miran Defends Push for Steeper Rate Cuts Despite Elevated Inflation
Barrons· 2025-12-15 14:50
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Riskier Small Caps Seen Outperforming in 2026 on Growth Outlook
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-15 10:30
Bloomberg The fast-paced rally in small caps, sidelined for much of this year, has been fueled by a combination of falling interest rates and economic growth — dual tailwinds that many on Wall Street see as likely to propel the riskier group to market leading gains next year. The third Federal Reserve rate cut in as many meetings, and the prospect of more easing to come, has driven the Russell 2000 Index to outperform the S&P 500 Index for a fourth straight week, which ties for the longest such stretch i ...
How Fed Rate Cuts Affect Bitcoin, AI & The Market
Anthony Pompliano· 2025-12-13 14:01
I think right now uh you've got credit spreads at all time types. You've got the reflation trade going on. I strongly believe PMIs are going higher. And for me, that means that Bitcoin is just kind of whether it stays here between 85 and 92 for another couple weeks. When we get into the beginning part of next year, I think we're going to see Bitcoin back above. What's going on guys? Today we got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. As you can tell, I am not in studio, but Jordy is. He's looking great and ...
The Fed Did Banks a Solid This Week. More Favors May Be Needed
WSJ· 2025-12-13 10:30
Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding the size of its balance sheet are expected to have significant implications for banks, potentially more so than its rate cut decisions [1] Group 1 - The size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is a critical factor for the banking sector [1] - Banks may be more affected by changes in the balance sheet than by interest rate adjustments [1]
Tension Over Fed's Dual Mandate, AI Growth's Impact on Spreads, Credits | Real Yield 12/12/2025
Bloomberg Television· 2025-12-12 19:09
Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut rates for the third consecutive time this year, despite growing dissent [1] - The Fed is committed to purchasing $40 billion of Treasury bills per month [1] - The base case is a hold on further rate cuts, contingent on weakening labor market or improved inflation [3] - Markets are predicting a different path than the Fed's dot plot, with expectations of rate cuts between 3% and 3.25% [5] - There is a risk of losing Fed independence, which could cause yields to rise [17] Inflation & Labor Market - Tariffs are estimated to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to inflation [9] - The Fed is facing a difficult balancing act with inflation above target and a weakening labor market [8] - The Fed has delivered 175 basis points of cuts [43] Credit Market Dynamics - High-grade bond sales cooled in December, with $4.7 billion sold, a quarter below the previous period [26] - December bond sales in high yield exceeded $20 billion, the busiest December since 2020 [26] - Investment grade supply is expected to grow year-over-year, reaching approximately $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion in 2026 [30] - Tech supply was up 75% and is expected to double, driven by hyperscalers' CAPEX expansion [32]
X @The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal· 2025-12-12 17:05
Federal Reserve officials sparred over whether rate cuts risk credibility on inflation https://t.co/9Xgd9ASHZw ...
Mid-Cap ETFs in High Momentum Now: More Rally Ahead?
ZACKS· 2025-12-12 14:01
For investors seeking a unique blend of resilience and growth opportunity, mid-cap investing can be an intriguing choice. These securities are viewed as big and safe compared to the highly volatile small-cap exposure. But when compared to the stability of large caps, these are relatively risky bets. However, investors ignoring this key segment of the investing spectrum should note that many mid-cap ETFs have been hovering around 52-week highs of late.What’s Acting Against Large Caps?The global market, thoug ...
It's hard for the Fed to sound too hawkish right now, says BofA's Mark Cabana
CNBC Television· 2025-12-12 12:11
Treasury yields a little higher this morning after dipping post Fed. They were up, they were down, back up again to 416 for the 10 year, the two years at 353. And joining us right now with his insights on the bond market and the Fed's decision on rates this week is Mark Cabana.He's head of US rate strategy at Bank of America Securities. And Mark, big week. >> It was >> heard a lot from the Fed.We're still trying to figure out what comes next. Um it's a split Fed at this point and we're going to probably hea ...