Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE number is expected to remain close to 3%, posing a challenge [3] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, influencing the Federal Reserve's considerations [3][4][5] - Market anticipates the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but now expects three rate cuts this year instead of two [7] Market Sentiment & Performance - Bullish market sentiment is likely to persist, supported by new all-time highs in the US and overseas [6][8] - Investors are actively seeking reasons to sell stocks, but market conditions may continue to support and propel them [8] Economic Factors & Consumer Behavior - AI is projected to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth through increased capital expenditure [9] - Wealth gains primarily benefit upper-income consumers, with limited impact on lower-income consumers [9][10] - Tighter inventories, partly due to tariffs, may sustain price pressures during the holiday shopping season [11] Retail & Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sub-industry within the S&P 1500, driven by companies like Wayfair, RH, and William Sonoma, has shown strong performance [12][13] - Lower interest rates and people spending more time at home are driving upgrades to home interiors [13]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's legal team is seeking to expedite the process of removing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is crucial for interest rate decisions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Trump's lawyers have filed a request with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to allow his attempt to fire Cook to proceed before the FOMC meeting next week [1][2]. - A lower-court judge had previously blocked Trump's attempt to remove Cook while her lawsuit against him is ongoing [1][4]. - The appeal seeks a ruling by Monday afternoon to influence the FOMC's decisions regarding open market activities [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump is advocating for a reduction in interest rates to stimulate economic growth and lower the costs associated with national debt [3]. - He has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates in 2025 and has previously considered firing him [3]. Group 3: Allegations and Responses - Trump cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook as justification for her removal, although Cook has denied these allegations [4]. - Trump anticipates that he will soon have a majority on the Fed board that will support lowering interest rates [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - The judge's ruling emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, suggesting that reinstating Cook serves the public interest [5].

Recent report from Moody's states that 33% of states in the US they are already in recession territory. It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. It makes sense the economic growth happening in these areas because of the tech sector.But the fact that we're not seeing growth in other states, that's less than ideal. So, add in the fact that the S&P 500's price to book value is now higher than it was in the 20 ...

Group 1 - U.S. consumer prices increased by 0.4% month over month in August, while the year-over-year gain was 2.9%, aligning with expectations when excluding food and energy prices [1] - Core prices also met expectations, indicating stability in inflation metrics, which supports the Federal Reserve's potential decision to cut interest rates next week [2] - The stock market showed positive movement on Thursday, reflecting investor sentiment in response to the inflation data [2] Group 2 - The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq observed a moment of silence to commemorate the 24th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, highlighting the significance of the day in the financial community [3]

This is a Bloomberg Money Minute. U.S. consumer prices rose at a slightly higher pace than expected month over month in August, but the year over year gain matched expectations. Consumer prices rose 4/10 percent month over month and 2.9% year over year, stripping out volatile food and energy prices as the Fed prefers to do. Prices rose 3/10 percent in August from the month before and 3.1% year over year.Those so-called core prices matched expectations. And overall, this new report keeps the Fed on track to ...

Inflation Data and Federal Reserve Response - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed core prices rose by 3.1% in August, consistent with July's level, while month-over-month growth was slightly higher than expected at 0.4% compared to the anticipated 0.3% [1][2] - Headline inflation increased by 2.9% in August, up from 2.7% in July, indicating broad increases in goods, services, and shelter prices [2] - The inflation data suggests a 25-basis point rate cut is likely, but does not support a larger 50-basis point cut [3][6] Job Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest level in four years, indicating softening in the job market [4] - The economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate increasing to 4.3% from 4.2% [4][5] - Job growth for June was revised to a loss of 13,000 jobs, and July's growth was below trend, marking three consecutive months of slowing job growth [5][6] Market Expectations - Markets are pricing in a near certainty for a 25-basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting [6] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a potential shift in policy stance due to changing risk balances, suggesting a readiness to lower rates [6] - Former Kansas City Fed president Esther George noted that recent job market data supports the expectation of a 25-basis point cut [6]

Market Performance - S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose as traders anticipate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with S&P 500 hitting a new all-time intraday high [1] - The S&P 500 rose over 0.33%, Nasdaq Composite was up 0.42%, and Dow Jones increased by 0.21% [1] - The S&P 500 finished at all-time closing highs for two consecutive days, despite Dow Jones losing over 200 points [2] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The core consumer price index rose 0.3% from July, indicating relatively calm inflation [2] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with two additional cuts anticipated this year [3] Sector Performance - Nine of the 11 sectoral indices were trading in green, with the health sector leading gains while communication services lagged [3] - Salesforce, Goldman Sachs, Apple, and Nike were among the gainers, while Amazon and Microsoft faced declines [4] Commodity Prices - Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,624.11 per ounce, and crude oil prices decreased by 1.9% to $62.44 per barrel [4] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin remained stable at $113,617.69 [5]

Group 1: Bitcoin Market Reaction - Bitcoin price remained stable around $114,000 as ETF flows reached an 8-week high, with a slight gain of 0.3% in the past day [1] - The consumer price index (CPI) data indicated a 0.4% inflation rise in August, surpassing the 0.2% increase in July [1][2] - Analysts at QCP Capital suggested that any volatility from the CPI data will be short-lived, noting that the Producer Price Index (PPI) generally leads CPI by 3-6 months [5] Group 2: Federal Reserve Expectations - Inflation over the past 12 months has risen to 2.9%, moving away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but hopes for a rate cut remain [2] - Following the CPI release, the percentage of investors expecting a 50 basis point cut in September decreased from 12% to 9% [3] - A prediction market indicated that 84% of users expect a 25 basis point cut, while 12% anticipate a 50 basis point cut [4] Group 3: Market Indicators - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) briefly touched 97.66 before recovering to 97.80, indicating fluctuations in response to economic data [6] - The European Central Bank decided to hold interest rates steady, contrasting with the Federal Reserve's upcoming decisions [6]

RT Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio)BREAKING: US CPI JUST CAME IN AT EXPECTATIONS 🚨Expected: 2.9%Actual: 2.9%This was the number markets were waiting for.Why it matters 👇✦ Jobs market is already weakening (Payrolls revised down by 911,000, unemployment at 4.3%).✦ PPI and Core PPI already cooled sharply below expectations yesterday.✦ CPI matching expectations confirms inflation isn’t re-accelerating and will cool down further as PPI is dropping.What this means:➜ The Fed is still on track to cut rates in September, ...

Core Insights - Fixed income investors are encouraged to consider mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as they offer credit profiles similar to Treasuries with potential upside [1] - The WisdomTree Mortgage Plus Bond Fund (MTGP) has reached a 52-week high, with a year-to-date gain of nearly 4%, outperforming some large passive aggregate bond ETFs [2] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could enhance the attractiveness of MTGP for bond investors [2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve Impact - A disappointing August jobs report suggests the Federal Reserve may need to lower borrowing costs, which is significant for the mortgage market and ETFs like MTGP [3] - If the Fed signals a willingness to cut rates, it would strengthen the case for MTGP, which already presents compelling value [4] - Clarity on Fed policy could lead banks to feel more comfortable adding mortgages to their balance sheets, although timing depends on regulatory developments [6] Group 2: Market Volatility and Mortgage Valuations - Fed actions could reduce market volatility, which is beneficial for MTGP as clear intentions from the central bank can stabilize rates [7] - A significant drop in volatility has been observed since last year, supporting mortgage valuations, especially with steady rate cuts from the Fed [8] - Investors are seeking yield without excessive credit risk, and agency mortgages provide a balanced option due to their government guarantees [5]