Core Insights - Dividend-focused ETFs are expected to underperform the S&P 500 in 2025, primarily due to investor interest in mega-cap technology stocks, which typically do not offer high yields [1][2]. Performance of OUSA - The ALPS O'Shares U.S. Quality Dividend ETF (OUSA) is anticipated to have a solid performance in 2025, although it will lag behind the broader market [4]. - OUSA has a dividend yield of 1.37%, indicating potential for payout growth without being overly reliant on high-risk yield traps [3][6]. Market Dynamics - The current market is heavily weighted towards technology stocks, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence (AI), which has impacted the performance of dividend-focused investments [5]. - OUSA allocates approximately 23% of its portfolio to technology stocks, positioning it to benefit from the AI trend while maintaining a quality investment profile [5]. Corporate Behavior - Companies are increasingly favoring share buybacks over dividends, with an estimated $1 trillion allocated to buybacks compared to $750 billion for dividends in 2025 [7]. - OUSA's portfolio consists of companies committed to increasing their dividend payouts, which is a favorable characteristic in the current market environment [6].

Core Insights - Investors showed interest in durable growth amidst tech volatility and sought income and alternative diversification in November [1][2] Growth Focus - The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) experienced a decline in value, yet there was significant interest in large cap growth funds [3] - The article "These ETFs Are on the Right Side of Tech Earnings Chasm" highlighted the earnings season for technology proxies within Invesco ETFs, discussing potential benefits from AI, particularly focusing on Alphabet and Amazon [3] Income Resilience - Alerian energy infrastructure ETFs outperformed QQQ in November, with a notable interest in their income components [4] - The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) distribution increased by 5% year-over-year, while the Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ENFR) distribution grew by 10% [4] Core Strategy - The Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta US Large Cap Equity ETF (GSLC) surpassed $15 billion in assets under management, primarily due to price appreciation [5] - The multi-factor index of GSLC incorporates momentum, quality, low volatility, and value, positioning it as a competitive option for core equity allocation [5] International Access - The American Century Quality Diversified International ETF (QINT) outperformed its category average through an index-based quality approach [6] - The portfolio includes significant holdings in large financials like Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and luxury goods companies like Hermes International [6] Alternative Income - The Calamos CEF Income & Arbitrage ETF (CCEF) focuses on closed-end funds trading at discounts to net asset value (NAV), providing a unique income and diversification strategy [7] - CCEF offered a nearly 8% yield as of September 2025, appealing to investors amid uncertainty in traditional bond strategies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts are projected to reach new heights by 2026, prompting investors to consider stocks that may perform well in that year, leading to a potential Santa Claus rally at the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Picks for 2026 - Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), and Alphabet are identified as top stock picks for 2026, with early investment in these stocks expected to yield the best returns [2] Group 2: Nvidia - Nvidia has been a leading stock in the market for the past three years, primarily due to its industry-leading graphics processing units (GPUs) that power much of the current generative AI technology [4] - Despite competition from AMD and custom AI accelerators from Alphabet, Nvidia's CEO stated that the company is "sold out" of cloud GPUs, indicating continued demand and a strong position in the market [6] - The ongoing AI buildout supports Nvidia's strong stock outlook for 2026 [7] Group 3: Alphabet - Alphabet's tensor processing unit (TPU), developed in collaboration with Broadcom, may soon be sold directly to Meta Platforms, creating a new revenue stream for the company [8] - In Q3, Alphabet reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase to $102 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising 35% year-over-year, showcasing strong performance despite business maturity [10] - Alphabet's stock has performed well in the latter half of the year, with potential for further growth if it secures significant business wins with its TPUs [11] Group 4: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC is crucial in the AI race, as it fabricates chips for companies like Nvidia and Alphabet, making it a key player in the AI technology landscape [12] - TSMC's new 2-nanometer chips, which are entering production, promise to consume 25% to 30% less energy compared to the previous 3nm generation, addressing electricity capacity issues in AI buildouts [14] - As a neutral party in the chip manufacturing sector, TSMC stands to benefit from increased spending on AI infrastructure, making it a strong stock pick for 2026 [15]

Core Viewpoint - Demand for CrowdStrike's cybersecurity solutions is increasing, but the high stock valuation may limit upside potential in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - CrowdStrike is a leading cybersecurity vendor, with its Falcon platform being a comprehensive enterprise solution that leverages AI for automation [1]. - The Falcon platform includes 32 modules covering various security aspects, allowing enterprises to customize their security needs [4]. - The platform's cloud-based architecture enables seamless updates, ensuring devices are always protected against threats [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - CrowdStrike's revenue for fiscal Q3 2026 reached $1.23 billion, marking a 22% increase year-over-year, indicating accelerating revenue growth [8]. - The company reported a record annual recurring revenue (ARR) of $4.92 billion, up 23% year-over-year, highlighting the effectiveness of its subscription model [9]. - Falcon Flex subscriptions contributed approximately $1.35 billion to ARR, showing a remarkable 200% year-over-year growth [10]. Group 3: Market Position and Valuation - CrowdStrike's stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 28, significantly higher than its peers, such as Palo Alto Networks, which has a P/S ratio of 14.5 [12]. - Despite strong growth, the elevated P/S ratio may pose challenges for further stock price appreciation in the short term [15]. - Long-term projections suggest that CrowdStrike's ARR could exceed $20 billion by fiscal year 2036, indicating potential for substantial returns for long-term investors [16].

Group 1 - NuScale Power Corporation (NYSE:SMR) specializes in advanced small modular reactor technology, specifically the 77-MWe NuScale Power Module [1] - Jim Cramer suggested that investors should consider selling NuScale shares at price points of $27 and $30, indicating a cautious approach to the stock [1] - Cramer expressed a preference for GE Vernova over NuScale, citing GE's expertise in building such technology [1] Group 2 - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk compared to NuScale [1] - The article hints at a potential stock offering for NuScale, which could present a buying opportunity for investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recommendation has shifted to underweight mega-cap tech stocks compared to the rest of the S&P 500 due to increasing competition and high market capitalization of these stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks now account for 45% of the S&P 500 market cap, while their earnings share has not increased proportionately [3]. - The U.S. market represents 65% of the global stock market cap, making it challenging to recommend an overweight position in the U.S. [4]. - There is a growing competitive landscape among the Magnificent Seven, with new entrants and innovations challenging their dominance [6][7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Recent advancements, such as Google's Gemini 3 and DeepSeek's new model, have intensified competition in the AI sector, prompting a reevaluation of the positions held by established players like OpenAI [6][7]. - High profit margins in the tech sector are attracting more competition, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - A broader investment strategy that includes the "impressive 493" companies outside the Magnificent Seven is suggested, as these companies are leveraging technology to enhance productivity and profit margins [9].

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the U.S. economic outlook and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December, which is expected to address interest rate adjustments. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Cut Expectations**: The FOMC is anticipated to implement a third consecutive 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the target range to 3.5-3.75% [2][5] - **Labor Market Concerns**: Job growth is insufficient to match labor supply growth, with an estimated underlying trend monthly job growth of 40,000, below the breakeven rate of 70,000. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market [2][6][10] - **Dovish vs. Hawkish Sentiment**: While many investors expect a hawkish tone from the FOMC, there is uncertainty regarding future cuts, especially if the labor market continues to weaken [2][18][39] - **Economic Projections**: The median GDP growth forecast is expected to rise to 2% for both 2025 and 2026, while core PCE inflation is projected to decline to 3% for 2025 and 2.5% for 2026 [25][26] - **Future Rate Cuts**: The FOMC is likely to signal that the bar for further cuts has been raised, with expectations of one additional cut in 2026 to 3.375% and another in 2027 to 3.125% [28][31] Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: Core PCE inflation, net of tariff effects, is currently estimated at 2.3% and is expected to reach 2% by the first half of 2026 [13][14][17] - **Impact of AI on Employment**: Companies are increasingly utilizing AI to reduce labor costs, which may lead to restrained hiring or increased layoffs, further complicating the labor market outlook [35][36] - **Economic Uncertainty**: The report highlights significant uncertainty regarding whether improved GDP growth will stabilize the labor market, given the current negative job growth outside of healthcare [35][36] Conclusion - The upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to be contentious, with a mix of hawkish and dovish sentiments among participants. The labor market's performance and inflation trends will be critical in shaping future monetary policy decisions.

Summary of the Auto Industry and Shared Mobility Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **North American Auto Industry** and **Shared Mobility** for the year 2026, highlighting a cautious outlook due to an anticipated 'EV Winter' expected to persist through 2026 [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Forecasts**: - The 2026 US Auto sales forecast is set at **15.9 million** units, reflecting a **1.0% year-over-year decline**. This includes **14.9 million** Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (+1.0% y/y) and **1.0 million** Electric Vehicles (EVs) (-20% y/y) [5][11][25]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The **2025 US Auto sales** showed unexpected resilience, driven by pre-buying before tariff implementations and the expiration of consumer tax credits for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) [4][10]. - Factors contributing to the cautious outlook include: - Continued lack of affordability due to the expiration of EV tax credits and rising average transaction prices (ATPs) [5][10]. - Tightened credit standards, particularly affecting subprime borrowers, although some modest loosening has been noted recently [5][10]. - Inflationary pressures from tariffs expected to impact consumer prices through the first quarter of 2026 [5][10]. 3. **Consumer Behavior**: - There is pent-up demand in the market, with US Auto SAAR still below pre-COVID levels and an aging car parc averaging nearly **13 years** [5][10]. - Rate cuts may marginally improve affordability for consumers [5][10]. 4. **Scenario Analysis**: - **Bull Case**: Forecasts a SAAR of **17.5 million** (+8.7% y/y) if consumer confidence improves and OEMs focus on core ICE/hybrid offerings [12][25]. - **Bear Case**: Projects a SAAR of **14.5 million** (-9.9% y/y) if credit availability tightens further and consumer affordability worsens [12][25]. 5. **Stock Ratings Changes**: - **General Motors (GM)** upgraded to **Overweight** with a target price of **$90**, citing strong execution and capital allocation strategies [8][48]. - **Tesla (TSLA)** downgraded to **Equal-weight** with a target price of **$425**, reflecting high expectations and near-term headwinds [8][51]. - **Rivian (RIVN)** and **Lucid (LCID)** downgraded to **Underweight** due to negative EV outlooks [8][54]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy updates regarding tariffs and consumer health indicators such as unemployment and inflation [12][13]. - The **EV market** is expected to face significant headwinds, with a projected **20% decline in volume** and a penetration rate of **6.5%** for BEVs in 2026 [10][31]. - Companies with diversified sourcing and regional manufacturing strategies are seen as better positioned amid geopolitical tensions and market shifts [47]. Conclusion - The North American auto industry is navigating a complex landscape with mixed signals for 2026. While there are opportunities for companies with strong execution and adaptability, significant challenges remain, particularly in the EV segment. Investors are advised to remain selective and focus on companies that can effectively manage costs and capitalize on market dynamics.

Alphabet stock is soaring, and it could go even higher in 2026.Alphabet (GOOG +1.16%)(GOOGL +1.09%) has made an impressive turnaround this year. In April, its share price sank as low as $141. It's currently sitting above $300 and is up nearly 69% year to date (as of Dec. 5).There's understandable trepidation about investing in stocks after this rate of growth. But the parent company of Google remains an excellent investment, and there's one reason in particular it could continue to do well. Alphabet's AI st ...

Core Insights - Amazon is the leading player in e-commerce with a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of $790 billion in 2024, experiencing a 10% year-over-year sales growth in Q3 [1] - The company has multiple avenues for future growth, supported by substantial cash flow from online sales [2] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) holds a 29% market share in the cloud infrastructure sector, with a 20% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, contributing 18% to total revenue and 60% to operating income [4] - Advertising revenue has increased by 24% in Q3, making Amazon the third-largest advertiser globally, accounting for 10% of total revenue [5] - Subscription services, including Amazon Prime, have seen an 11% year-over-year growth, representing 7% of total revenue [7] - The company has a diverse range of revenue streams, including AI-related sales integrated into AWS, advertising, and e-commerce [8] E-commerce Performance - Amazon's GMV reached $790 billion in 2024, with a 10% increase in sales year-over-year in Q3 [1] Cloud Services - AWS leads the cloud market with a 29% share, significantly ahead of competitors Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud [4] - AWS revenue grew by 20% year-over-year in Q3, contributing 18% to total revenue and 60% to operating income [4] Advertising Growth - Amazon is now the third-largest global advertiser, with ad revenue increasing by 24% in Q3, accounting for 10% of total revenue [5] Subscription Services - Subscription revenue, including Amazon Prime, grew by 11% year-over-year, making up 7% of total revenue [7] Overall Business Strategy - Amazon's diverse revenue streams and growth potential position it favorably in the market, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 32 [8]