Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index decreased to 5.84% as of July 20, down 0.12% from July 13[6] - The land premium rate rose to 7.8% for the week of July 20, with a three-week average of 6.5%[10] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week-on-week as of July 20, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3%[23] Price Trends - Domestic resource prices continued to rise significantly, with Shanxi thermal coal price up 1.7%, coking coal up 16.7%, and rebar price up 5.5%[41] - The South China Glass Index surged by 26% during the same period[41] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of commercial housing in 67 cities decreased by 20.5% year-on-year for the first 25 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[8] Infrastructure and Production - The operating rate of asphalt plants fell to 28.8%, down 4% week-on-week but up 4% year-on-year[17] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants from June 26 to July 23 was 31.5%, roughly stable compared to June[17] Trade Dynamics - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. dropped by 5.5% year-on-year as of July 26, compared to a 16.4% increase at the end of June[30] - U.S. imports from China saw a decline of 20.2% year-on-year for the 22 days leading up to July 22[30]

Core Viewpoint - The global trade situation is becoming increasingly complex as countries like South Korea, India, and Malaysia draw red lines in trade negotiations with the United States, while the U.S. responds quickly and mentions reaching a trade agreement with China [1][7]. Group 1: South Korea's Trade Negotiations - South Korea has firmly rejected further opening its beef and rice markets as negotiation leverage, emphasizing food safety and agricultural protection [3]. - In 2022, South Korea imported beef worth $2.22 billion from the U.S., and U.S. rice accounts for 32% of its total rice import quota [3]. - The U.S. has maintained a strong stance on agricultural market access, putting pressure on South Korea, especially as Japan has made concessions [3][4]. Group 2: India's Trade Stance - India has also taken a strong position in trade talks with the U.S., with key red lines being agriculture and dairy products [6]. - Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for the removal of reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts, while seeking similar low tariff treatment as other U.S. trade partners [6]. - India retains the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, particularly concerning genetically modified products and strict feed regulations for dairy animals [6]. Group 3: Malaysia's Position - Malaysia has rejected U.S. demands regarding tax exemptions for electric vehicles and restrictions on foreign ownership in the power and financial sectors [6]. - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar has stated that these policies are crucial for the rights of the Malay and indigenous populations, showing a commitment to national policy independence [6]. Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has claimed that the U.S. is reaching a trade agreement with China, although the credibility of this statement is questioned [7]. - This assertion may serve multiple purposes, including pressuring countries yet to sign agreements with the U.S. and establishing a narrative that places the U.S. in a moral high ground during negotiations [7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. faces setbacks in its trade negotiations with these five countries as they collectively establish red lines, diminishing U.S. negotiating power [9]. - Countries are adopting various strategies to counter U.S. trade pressures, with South Korea, India, and Malaysia maintaining firm stances on their agricultural policies and national interests [9]. - The future of global trade order will be shaped by the negotiations and collaborations among these nations, aiming for equitable solutions to foster a stable and open global trade environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has been forced to accept a 15% tariff agreement with the United States, highlighting its regret for not forming a united front with China to counteract U.S. trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - On July 27, U.S. President Trump announced that the EU would increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1]. - The EU accepted a 15% "base" tariff, which includes key sectors like the automotive industry, while steel will be subject to a quota system [2][3]. - The EU's initial plan aimed to reduce a €200 billion trade deficit through increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, but was undermined by Trump's rapid actions [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Strategic Missteps - The EU's response to Trump's trade aggression began with a strategic misstep on April 10, when it chose to suspend retaliatory tariffs and accept negotiations under pressure [2][4]. - Internal divisions among EU member states weakened its negotiating position, with some countries advocating for a stronger response while others preferred a more cautious approach [3][4]. - The EU's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, particularly among Eastern and Northern member states, contributed to its reluctance to engage in a trade confrontation [4]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The EU's experience in this trade conflict underscores the importance of unity and decisive strategy in the face of trade bullying, as a lack of these elements led to unfavorable outcomes [5]. - Analysts suggest that the EU's failure to act decisively against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader lesson about the risks of not presenting a united front in international trade disputes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. textile and apparel industry is under significant pressure due to supply chain adjustments and uncertainty surrounding new tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The introduction of new tariffs has led to increased costs for suppliers, which are expected to result in higher prices for consumers [2]. - Retailers and importers are tracking rising costs and expenditures, which have become shockingly high due to the current tariff policies [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates procurement decisions for companies, making it difficult to manage supply chains effectively [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The textile and apparel industry is characterized by its high degree of globalization, and significant tariff increases pose a direct threat to its operations [2]. - Even when U.S. manufacturers are found, the costs are often double compared to suppliers from other countries, making it challenging to shift production domestically [2]. - The inability to quickly establish new factories means that adjustments to supply chains will not yield immediate results [1].

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating an intensifying trade negotiation phase between the U.S. and the EU [1] Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The core objective of the negotiations is to encourage the EU to open its markets to U.S. exports, with the EU seeking a deal contingent on offering favorable conditions to avoid a 30% tariff threat from the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on over 70% of EU exports, with steel and aluminum tariffs at 50%, automotive parts at 25%, and other goods generally at 10% [3] - A key meeting between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump is scheduled, which is seen as a critical juncture in the tariff negotiations [3] Group 2: EU's Countermeasures - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail, merging previous lists targeting €21 billion and an additional €72 billion in U.S. products [4] - Affected U.S. products include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles, jeans, tobacco, yachts, and diamonds, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [4] - The EU's stance is becoming increasingly firm, with member states like Germany supporting the use of retaliatory measures [4] Group 3: Negotiation Challenges - The initial deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump was July 9, later extended to August 1, with limited agreements reached with a few countries [5] - Trump indicated that most agreements are not bilateral free trade agreements but unilateral letters from the U.S., with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15% [5] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, citing uncertainty in the economic outlook primarily due to the unclear prospects of U.S.-EU trade negotiations [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's H1 GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but the urgency for policies decreased. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for possible intensified pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. Policies for "anti - involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new - energy vehicles are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have rebounded. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced [2]. - Trump signed the "Great Beautiful" tax and spending bill, and the US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, hard to tighten" policies. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has begun, which may drag down commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals of commodities are still weak, and caution should be exercised regarding the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high. For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on industrial products on dips [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, while the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the real - estate chain being dragged down by weak property sales still exists [1]. - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition. Policies for "anti - involution" in multiple industries are expected to heat up, and some commodity prices have recovered. Ten key industries' pro - growth plans are to be introduced, and a survey of old petrochemical equipment is underway [2]. - Trump signed the bill, and the US has entered a new policy stage. The second - stage of reciprocal tariffs has started, and multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations. The current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, which may impact commodities affected by external demand [3]. - Different commodity sectors have different characteristics. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors; the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations; the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; OPEC+ is accelerating production increases; and the short - term volatility of agricultural products is relatively limited [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products on dips [5] To - do News - China - EU leaders held the 25th meeting, aiming to deepen bilateral relations. The EU passed a measure to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [6]. - South Korea plans to invest at least $100 billion in the US. The preliminary value of the eurozone's July composite PMI was 51, higher than expected [6]. - China and the US will hold economic and trade talks in Sweden from July 27th to 30th. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell [6]. - The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, including Indonesia and Japan. Thailand is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the new tariff rate may drop to about 20% [6]. - The 7 - month LPR quote remained stable. The EU and the US may reach a trade agreement this weekend. The pound and the euro had certain fluctuations [6]. - China has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October [6]. Macroeconomic - The US economic data shows that GDP growth, manufacturing and service PMIs, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and net exports have different trends and fluctuations [8]. - The European economic data shows that GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus have their own characteristics and changes [9]. - The Chinese economic data shows that GDP growth, net exports, investment, consumption, inflation, finance, and fiscal revenue and expenditure have different performance and trends [10].

特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" （原标题：突然全线拉升！特朗普前往英国，将与欧盟商谈关税！） 7月26日，加密货币全线拉升，比特币涨超2%突破118000美元，以太坊涨破3700美元。 过去的24小时，全球共有超7.7万人爆仓。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家 高尔夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 多名欧盟外交官向媒体透露，欧盟和美国正在接近达成协议，美国可能将对欧盟商品征收15%的关税 ——与日本和美国本周谈成的关税税率相同，关键行业可能获得豁免。白宫警告说，目前任何关于协议 的讨论都只是推测性的。 7月初，特朗普先后致信20多个 ...

冯德莱恩25日在社交媒体上写道："在与美国总统进行了良好的通话后，我们同意周日在苏格兰会面， 讨论跨大西洋贸易关系，以及我们如何保持这种关系的强大。" 新华财经北京7月26日电美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家高尔 夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 50%几率与欧盟达成协议 特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" 自7月9日以来，美国仅宣布与日本、菲律宾和印度尼西亚达成贸易协议。 25日，谈到与邻国加拿大的贸易谈判时，特朗普说，美方"运气不太好"，双方可能无法通过磋商达成贸 易协议。 特朗普本月10日宣布，美国将自8月1日起对从加拿大输入美国的商品加征35%关税，且该 ...

Group 1 - The EU is close to reaching an agreement with the US on a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, with a potential implementation date of August 7 if negotiations fail [1][2][4] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including a proposed €93 billion in tariffs on US products, which could reach up to 30% if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [4][5] - The negotiations are influenced by the US's previous agreements with Japan and the need for President Trump to demonstrate successful outcomes in trade discussions [1][3] Group 2 - The proposed 15% tariff may apply to various sectors, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and would not stack on existing tariffs [2][3] - The EU's internal discussions indicate a willingness to accept the 15% tariff as a means to maintain the status quo, potentially reducing the current 27.5% tariff on cars [2][3] - The EU is also considering the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" as a response to US tariffs, reflecting a strong stance among member states [5][6] Group 3 - The deadline for reaching an agreement is approaching, with many unresolved issues remaining, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico, which face significant tariffs if no agreement is reached [6][7] - The cancellation of the US-South Korea "2+2" economic talks raises concerns about the likelihood of reaching a tariff agreement with South Korea before the deadline [7] - Analysts suggest that the US's fluctuating negotiation strategy has created significant uncertainty in global trade [7]