Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

宏 观 研 究 海外周度观察 2025 年 08 月 09 日 美国贸易协议中的"虚虚实实" 8 月 12 日，中美关税暂停措施即将到期。从美国近期与日本、欧盟等经济体达成的"投资换关 税"贸易协议来看，后续关税风险能否缓和，还存在哪些潜在贸易冲突？ （一）贸易谈判进度？谈判进程已近半，美国实质建立了三档分层关税 从贸易协议覆盖的商品规模来看，美国贸易谈判进程已近半。截至 8 月 1 日，美国已与越南、 日本、欧盟、韩国等九个经济体达成贸易协议或暂停协议。其中，德国占美国进口的 5%，日本 4%、韩国 4%，仍在推进谈判的经济体包括墨西哥（15%）、加拿大（11%）、印度（3%）等。 二季度美国有效关税税率为 7.9%，仍远低于理论税率。8 月 1 日后，美国理论关税税率已由年 初的 2.4%上升 15.9 个点至 18.3%。2025 年二季度关税收入 640 亿美元，是去年同期的 3.6 倍，二季度商品进口规模 8194 亿美元，有效关税税率仅 7.9%，比理论税率低 10 个点。 通过贸易谈判，美国实质上建立了三档分层关税。一是最低档 10%，主要为盟友国或贸易逆差 较小的经济体，如英国、澳大利亚、新加 ...

Core Points - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has begun, affecting nearly all trade partners with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, significantly impacting Asian countries [1] - Southeast Asian countries are experiencing varied outcomes, with Vietnam negotiating a reduced tariff rate from 46% to 20%, setting a precedent for the region [2] - The U.S. has adopted a differentiated tariff strategy based on trade deficits, supply chain dependencies, market openness, and geopolitical considerations [3] Group 1: Impact on Southeast Asia - Vietnam is the most affected economy, with exports to the U.S. totaling $137 billion, accounting for approximately 30% of its GDP [2] - Countries like Myanmar and Laos face the highest tariffs at 40%, severely limiting their access to the U.S. market [2] - The overall trade volume between the U.S. and ASEAN is projected to reach $476.8 billion by 2024, with ASEAN countries exporting $352.3 billion to the U.S. [2] Group 2: Business Implications - The new tariffs complicate supply chains in Southeast Asia, which heavily rely on Chinese raw materials and components [4] - Companies in Thailand and other countries express concerns over the potential requirement for higher localization of components, which may be unfeasible given the current supply chain dynamics [5] - The tariffs may lead to a shift in trade partnerships as countries explore alternatives to reduce dependency on the U.S. market [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Southeast Asian nations may initially comply with U.S. tariff threats to mitigate economic damage, but this could foster a growing sentiment against reliance on the U.S. [6] - Countries are considering joining trade agreements like CPTPP and RCEP to enhance economic cooperation and resilience against U.S. tariffs [6] - The tariffs are seen as a disruption to the global trade system, prompting nations to seek new trade growth avenues [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [1] - The Canadian dollar stabilized around 1.3850 against the U.S. dollar, nearing a 10-week low following the announcement [2] - The U.S. will impose a uniform 10% tariff on countries not specifically listed in the new tariff regulations [2] Group 2 - Goods covered under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) are exempt from the new tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Goods rerouted to avoid the 35% tariff will incur a 40% transshipment tariff [2] - The U.S. is applying tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, with specific rates such as 40% on Myanmar and Laos, 39% on Switzerland, and 20% on Vietnam [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam, particularly focusing on the new 40% tariff on transshipped goods and its potential impact on supply chains and trade dynamics in the region [1][4][9]. Summary by Sections Understanding the 40% Transshipment Tariff - The 40% tariff applies to goods that are minimally processed or merely transshipped through Vietnam before entering the U.S., which aims to enhance U.S. oversight on supply chain and origin compliance [1][4][6]. - The definition of "transshipment" is clarified as not merely transferring goods but involves changing the origin through light processing in Vietnam [5][7]. Implications of Zero Tariff for U.S. Goods - Vietnam's commitment to allow U.S. products to enter its market at zero tariffs could enable these goods to be re-exported to other RCEP countries, potentially weakening tariff barriers [9][10]. - This zero-tariff arrangement is seen as a significant structural change in trade dynamics, possibly increasing competition for Chinese products in the RCEP region [10]. Changes and Effects on Trade - The new tariff structure may lead to higher export costs and uncertainties for Chinese companies, prompting a reassessment of supply chain strategies [13][16]. - The previous practice of using Vietnam as a transshipment point to circumvent tariffs will now face a 40% tariff, significantly raising costs for those goods [13][16]. - Vietnam's foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $21.51 billion in the first half of the year, a 32.6% increase, indicating strong economic growth and investment attractiveness [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam introduces a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, which may significantly impact the supply chain and trade dynamics, particularly for Chinese products passing through Vietnam [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding the 40% Transshipping Tariff - The term "transshipping" refers to goods that undergo minimal processing in Vietnam before being labeled as Vietnamese origin for export to the U.S., thus incurring a higher tariff [1][4]. - The U.S. aims to strengthen its oversight on supply chains and origin rules through this tariff, which is designed to prevent circumvention of trade regulations [1][4]. - The definition of transshipped products hinges on value addition and origin, with products needing to demonstrate sufficient local content to qualify for lower tariffs [4][5]. Group 2: Implications of Zero Tariff for U.S. Products - Vietnam's commitment to allow U.S. products to enter its market at zero tariffs could enable these products to be re-exported to other RCEP countries, potentially undermining tariff barriers [6][7]. - This arrangement may inadvertently create competitive pressure on similar Chinese products within the RCEP region, affecting market dynamics [6][7]. - The U.S. is projected to import over $136 billion worth of goods from Vietnam in 2024, highlighting the significance of this trade relationship [6]. Group 3: Changes and Industry Impact - The new tariff structure may lead to increased export costs and uncertainties for Chinese companies, prompting a reassessment of supply chain strategies [7][8]. - The higher tariffs on transshipped goods could deter companies from using Vietnam as a transit point, as the cost of goods may rise significantly due to the 40% tariff [7][8]. - The evolving trade landscape suggests that companies may need to diversify their supply chains more effectively to mitigate risks associated with these new tariffs [8].