Group 1: Trade Policy and Market Dynamics - The uncertainty of U.S. trade policies is expected to continue decreasing, which will drive export growth[4] - The implementation of the 40% "transshipment" tariff by the U.S. on August 7, 2025, is seen as a catalyst for Chinese companies to expand overseas despite concerns about reduced investment motivation[5] - China's export share remained high at 16.2% in Q2 2025, despite the severe tariff environment, indicating strong performance in indirect trade channels[21] Group 2: Supply Chain and Export Strategies - The indirect trade channels have become a crucial support for exports, with the share of U.S. imports from China dropping to 9.4% in the first half of 2025, the lowest since 2017[21] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) identified potential unpaid trade duties exceeding $400 million, with at least $250 million related to China, highlighting the ongoing scrutiny of trade practices[9] - Enhancing the localization rate of exports is essential for maintaining compliance with U.S. regulations, with current localization rates in countries like Thailand and Vietnam around 64.5% and 40% respectively[36][46] Group 3: Long-term Strategies and Risks - The report suggests that increasing the diversification and depth of overseas supply chains is a superior long-term strategy to counter the "transshipment" tariffs[39] - The risks associated with U.S. trade policies include potential economic disconnection and the uncertainty of model assumptions not aligning with reality[2][47] - The ongoing pressure from the U.S. for stricter origin verification may lead to increased operational costs for countries exporting to the U.S., necessitating further investments[36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

Trade Agreements and Tariffs - As of August 1, the U.S. has established a three-tier tariff system, with effective tariffs at 7.9% compared to a theoretical rate of 18.3%[1][2][15]. - The U.S. has reached trade agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import scale, with Germany at 4.6%, Japan at 4.2%, and South Korea at 3.6%[1][12]. - The U.S. tariff revenue for Q2 2025 reached $64 billion, a 3.6 times increase from the previous year, with total imports at $819.4 billion[1][15]. Investment Commitments - The EU must increase its annual investment in the U.S. by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion over three years, which is challenging due to reliance on private sector funding[3][20]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion requires an annual investment of $1.833 billion, which is 4.7 times the 2024 investment flow[3][22]. - South Korea's $350 billion commitment represents 19% of its GDP and 53% of its annual budget, necessitating an eightfold increase in annual FDI to the U.S.[3][23]. Long-term Tariff Risks - U.S. tariff income has reached $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times higher than in 2024, with projections of $300 billion by the end of 2025[4][34]. - The U.S. is shifting its tariff strategy from "exchange rate adjustment" to "fiscal control" to manage trade deficits, indicating a long-term reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tool[4][38]. - The U.S. may continue to impose secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil, with potential rates reaching 100%[4][42].

Core Points - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. has begun, affecting nearly all trade partners with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, significantly impacting Asian countries [1] - Southeast Asian countries are experiencing varied outcomes, with Vietnam negotiating a reduced tariff rate from 46% to 20%, setting a precedent for the region [2] - The U.S. has adopted a differentiated tariff strategy based on trade deficits, supply chain dependencies, market openness, and geopolitical considerations [3] Group 1: Impact on Southeast Asia - Vietnam is the most affected economy, with exports to the U.S. totaling $137 billion, accounting for approximately 30% of its GDP [2] - Countries like Myanmar and Laos face the highest tariffs at 40%, severely limiting their access to the U.S. market [2] - The overall trade volume between the U.S. and ASEAN is projected to reach $476.8 billion by 2024, with ASEAN countries exporting $352.3 billion to the U.S. [2] Group 2: Business Implications - The new tariffs complicate supply chains in Southeast Asia, which heavily rely on Chinese raw materials and components [4] - Companies in Thailand and other countries express concerns over the potential requirement for higher localization of components, which may be unfeasible given the current supply chain dynamics [5] - The tariffs may lead to a shift in trade partnerships as countries explore alternatives to reduce dependency on the U.S. market [6] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Southeast Asian nations may initially comply with U.S. tariff threats to mitigate economic damage, but this could foster a growing sentiment against reliance on the U.S. [6] - Countries are considering joining trade agreements like CPTPP and RCEP to enhance economic cooperation and resilience against U.S. tariffs [6] - The tariffs are seen as a disruption to the global trade system, prompting nations to seek new trade growth avenues [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1 [1] - The Canadian dollar stabilized around 1.3850 against the U.S. dollar, nearing a 10-week low following the announcement [2] - The U.S. will impose a uniform 10% tariff on countries not specifically listed in the new tariff regulations [2] Group 2 - Goods covered under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) are exempt from the new tariffs on Canadian products [2] - Goods rerouted to avoid the 35% tariff will incur a 40% transshipment tariff [2] - The U.S. is applying tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various countries, with specific rates such as 40% on Myanmar and Laos, 39% on Switzerland, and 20% on Vietnam [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent trade agreement between the United States and Vietnam, particularly focusing on the new 40% tariff on transshipped goods and its potential impact on supply chains and trade dynamics in the region [1][4][9]. Summary by Sections Understanding the 40% Transshipment Tariff - The 40% tariff applies to goods that are minimally processed or merely transshipped through Vietnam before entering the U.S., which aims to enhance U.S. oversight on supply chain and origin compliance [1][4][6]. - The definition of "transshipment" is clarified as not merely transferring goods but involves changing the origin through light processing in Vietnam [5][7]. Implications of Zero Tariff for U.S. Goods - Vietnam's commitment to allow U.S. products to enter its market at zero tariffs could enable these goods to be re-exported to other RCEP countries, potentially weakening tariff barriers [9][10]. - This zero-tariff arrangement is seen as a significant structural change in trade dynamics, possibly increasing competition for Chinese products in the RCEP region [10]. Changes and Effects on Trade - The new tariff structure may lead to higher export costs and uncertainties for Chinese companies, prompting a reassessment of supply chain strategies [13][16]. - The previous practice of using Vietnam as a transshipment point to circumvent tariffs will now face a 40% tariff, significantly raising costs for those goods [13][16]. - Vietnam's foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $21.51 billion in the first half of the year, a 32.6% increase, indicating strong economic growth and investment attractiveness [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam introduces a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, which may significantly impact the supply chain and trade dynamics, particularly for Chinese products passing through Vietnam [1][6]. Group 1: Understanding the 40% Transshipping Tariff - The term "transshipping" refers to goods that undergo minimal processing in Vietnam before being labeled as Vietnamese origin for export to the U.S., thus incurring a higher tariff [1][4]. - The U.S. aims to strengthen its oversight on supply chains and origin rules through this tariff, which is designed to prevent circumvention of trade regulations [1][4]. - The definition of transshipped products hinges on value addition and origin, with products needing to demonstrate sufficient local content to qualify for lower tariffs [4][5]. Group 2: Implications of Zero Tariff for U.S. Products - Vietnam's commitment to allow U.S. products to enter its market at zero tariffs could enable these products to be re-exported to other RCEP countries, potentially undermining tariff barriers [6][7]. - This arrangement may inadvertently create competitive pressure on similar Chinese products within the RCEP region, affecting market dynamics [6][7]. - The U.S. is projected to import over $136 billion worth of goods from Vietnam in 2024, highlighting the significance of this trade relationship [6]. Group 3: Changes and Industry Impact - The new tariff structure may lead to increased export costs and uncertainties for Chinese companies, prompting a reassessment of supply chain strategies [7][8]. - The higher tariffs on transshipped goods could deter companies from using Vietnam as a transit point, as the cost of goods may rise significantly due to the 40% tariff [7][8]. - The evolving trade landscape suggests that companies may need to diversify their supply chains more effectively to mitigate risks associated with these new tariffs [8].