Inflation and Economic Indicators - The CPI figures for November showed a rise of 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% increase, indicating a positive surprise in inflation data [1] - Shelter prices increased by 0.2% from September to November, slower than the 0.3% average increase in 2025 [2] Darden Restaurants, Inc. (NYSE:DRI) - Darden reported $3.1 billion in revenue and $2.08 in adjusted earnings per share, beating revenue estimates but missing earnings estimates [8] - BTIG maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $225, while Stephens cut its price target from $215 to $205, citing weaker trends at Olive Garden [8] - The CFO noted that high beef prices were impacting margins, but stable sales at LongHorn Steakhouse were highlighted [8] Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) - Micron reported $13.64 billion in revenue and $4.78 in adjusted earnings per share, exceeding analyst estimates [9] - The results prompted Rosenblatt to raise the price target from $300 to $500, maintaining a Buy rating, driven by memory price strength and lower costs [9] - Cramer emphasized the strong demand for memory chips, particularly in AI, with Micron only able to meet 50% to 66% of customer demand [9][10]

Global Economic Overview - A higher nominal world has emerged, driven by persistent fiscal deficits, rising protectionism, and competitive currency devaluations, leading to a higher equilibrium for inflation and interest rates [2][20] - Global activity remained resilient in Q4 2025, despite renewed tariff pressures and persistent geopolitical tensions [4][20] - The US economy experienced moderate growth with easing inflation pressures and rising policy and trade uncertainty [4][8] United States - In Q4 2025, the US economy showed slowing but still positive activity, with disinflationary trends and intensifying policy and trade uncertainty [8][11] - Payroll gains decelerated, unemployment rose to 4.4%, and job cuts surged, indicating a softening labor market [8][11] - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, concluding quantitative tightening [11] Europe - Economic conditions in Europe improved modestly, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to a 17-month high of 52.5 in October, although recovery remained uneven [12][15] - Eurozone headline CPI held steady at 2.1% in October and 2.2% in November, complicating the ECB's ability to guide markets towards a clearer easing trajectory [12][15] - The quarter reaffirmed a fragile but stabilizing growth trajectory, constrained by tight financial conditions and external trade headwinds [15] China and Emerging Markets - China maintained a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, despite facing weak domestic demand and property stress [16][20] - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) maintained an accommodative stance, relying on targeted liquidity injections to stabilize the property sector [16][20] - Asian equities modestly outperformed global peers, supported by strong AI-related demand and solid earnings [19][20] Investment Conclusions - The global economy continues to show resilience despite trade frictions and policy uncertainty, with a low probability of a deep US recession [20] - A moderate re-acceleration in global activity could revive cyclical inflation, emphasizing the importance of corporate earnings [20] - The investment strategy prioritizes capital preservation while using volatility and dispersion as opportunities for active management [20]

Market Overview - The market has experienced volatility, likened to the "Three Stooges," with tech stocks fluctuating significantly due to AI developments and inflation data [2][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated positive inflation trends, but concerns about data accuracy arose due to the government shutdown [3] - Unemployment rose to 4.6%, but this figure may be overstated, suggesting a more favorable employment situation [3] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have shown a slight dip, providing a reliable indicator amidst other fluctuating data [4] - The overall market sentiment suggests a flat trajectory for December, with alternating good and bad news days expected [5] IPO Market Developments - Medline's IPO was the largest of the year, raising over $6 billion and marking the biggest IPO since Rivian in 2021, with a stock price increase of 40% [6] - Anticipation surrounds SpaceX's potential IPO, with speculation about a valuation of $1.5 trillion, although no timeline has been established [7][8] Cannabis Industry Updates - The signing of an executive order by President Trump reclassifies marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III drug, allowing companies to deduct business expenses, potentially boosting cash flows by up to $150 million [11][12][13] - Despite initial stock price increases, marijuana stocks experienced a decline following the executive order, indicating a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [11][14] - Many cannabis companies are involved in both farming and distribution, which may impact their operational strategies moving forward [15]

Group 1: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - The newly elected U.S. president's potential implementation of large tariffs on Canadian imports is a significant concern for Canadian businesses in 2025 [2][6] - Trump's focus on trade deficits may lead to substantial changes in global trade dynamics, with tariffs being used to fund corporate tax cuts [3][10] - A targeted 10-15% tariff on non-energy products is anticipated, which could disrupt Canadian manufacturing and lead to retaliatory tariffs from Canada [6][7] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation concerns are expected to persist in 2025, driven by tariff-induced price increases and a booming U.S. stock market, potentially pushing inflation above 3% [12][13] - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, impacting both U.S. and Canadian monetary policies [14][18] - Canadian inflation remained closer to target at around 2.2%, but the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% due to economic resilience and trade uncertainties [18] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - The first half of 2025 may experience gains due to post-election optimism, but the second half could see declines due to tariffs and stretched valuations impacting corporate earnings [20][21] - High expectations for earnings growth could lead to skepticism among investors if projections begin to decline [22][23] - Overall, markets are expected to be up in 2025, with positive news on tariffs and inflation benefiting stock and commodity markets [23] Group 4: Canadian Housing Market - Canadian housing prices are projected to face downward pressure, with average home prices declining by about 6% in 2025, contrary to CREA's forecast of a 6.6% rise [32][35] - Fixed mortgage rates did not decrease significantly, maintaining high borrowing costs and limiting buyer activity [36][37] - The condo market is particularly vulnerable, with high inventory levels and cooling investor demand leading to downward price pressure [37] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - The global oil market is expected to remain below USD $75 per barrel due to rising U.S. production and OPEC's reluctance to cut supply [38][40] - Despite a brief peak, crude oil prices spent the majority of the year below the anticipated ceiling, with demand growth from China failing to materialize [40] Group 6: Electric Vehicle Market - Tesla's market valuation is questioned, with concerns about its sustainability compared to traditional car manufacturers and increasing competition from companies like BYD [41][45] - Despite a significant drop in Tesla's stock price earlier in the year, it rebounded, raising questions about the long-term viability of its high P/E ratio [46][48]

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Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today we're going to talk about the most recent CPI report. We're going to discuss how it has dropped to 2.7% and expectations that we might have based on further rate cuts and of course how it affects markets like Bitcoin.If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse. com. Link is in the description below.Again, ...

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Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury bond is currently viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to its high yield compared to shorter-duration bonds, with expectations of falling long-term yields as inflation fears ease [2][3]. Investment Opportunity - Elliott Dornbusch, CIO at CV Advisors, highlights the 30-year Treasury bond's yield of 4.8%, which is significantly higher than the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.14% [2]. - The 30-year bond is favored for its high yield despite its long duration, which is typically seen as a disadvantage [3][4]. Market Expectations - Dornbusch anticipates that long-term yields will decline, leading to an increase in bond prices, driven by overstated long-term inflation risks and potential shifts in investor behavior during market downturns [5][6]. - The expectation is that if a bear market occurs, investors will flock to long-term Treasurys, increasing their value and decreasing yields, thus providing a profitable exit for current holders [6]. Potential Returns - The potential return on the 30-year Treasury bond over the next four years could resemble a 10% return when considering both coupon payments and price appreciation, making it an attractive option for patient investors [7].

I spoke with @jvisserlabs this week to break down the latest CPI data and what it means for the Fed’s next move.We discussed artificial intelligence, including how it’s changing the way people work, learn, and create an edge in their careers.We also cover bitcoin, macro positioning, and specific companies and organizations investors should be paying attention to right now.Enjoy!YouTube: https://t.co/S3FpWr7gvwSpotify: https://t.co/HU1Jn3FDreApple: https://t.co/pmaxKtPYvYTIMESTAMPS:0:00 - Intro0:45 – CPI tak ...

Core Insights - Rising private healthcare costs are prompting millionaires to reconsider their living locations, as highlighted by Henley & Partners [1] Inflation Concerns - Inflation is a significant concern, with fears that it could spiral out of the Federal Reserve's control by 2026 [2][5] - Recent data indicates that while headline inflation was cooler than expected in November, it remains above the Fed's 2% target [3] Stock Market Observations - The stock market is perceived to be in a bubble, with the "Dr. X's Bubble Detector" indicating all-time high equity prices [3][5] Money Supply Dynamics - The M2 money supply has increased by $3.5 trillion over the past five years, which is viewed as a critical metric for inflation outlook [4] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including rate cuts and the cessation of quantitative tightening, are expected to loosen financial conditions, potentially accelerating price growth [6] Factors Contributing to Inflation - Several developments are identified that could exacerbate inflation in the coming year: 1. Fed rate cuts that loosen financial conditions [6] 2. The end of quantitative tightening, which previously aimed to control inflation [6] 3. Easing of lending rules, allowing banks to increase the money supply [7] 4. Increased issuance of T-bills by the US Treasury to fund government deficits, contributing to inflationary pressures [7]