Market Overview & Strategy - The soft landing trade is currently in effect, but structural and fundamental improvements are needed for consumer discretionary and small-cap sectors to continue outperforming beyond a tactical trade [2] - A bullish narrative for the second half requires cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, to perform well and contribute to earnings growth beyond growth-led sectors [7] - The market is currently pricing in a lot of good news, and sentiment is somewhat stretched, requiring earnings season to deliver [12] - Risk-reward is slightly more to the downside than upside, but a bullish case depends on more factors contributing positively [15] Investment Opportunities - AI remains a favored growth theme, with opportunities potentially underpriced in many stocks [4] - Consider AI plays outside the US to complement structural growth names already prominent in the index [4] - Focus on companies globally that are improving quality and efficiency, regardless of the economic backdrop [9] - Companies that are users or adopters of AI tools, like SAP, represent investment opportunities as structural improvers not yet priced to perfection [10] Risks & Concerns - Consumer matters for a bullish second half, with potential issues including inventory pulled in ahead of expected tariffs and credit issues affecting working-class consumers [5][7] - Short-term caution is advised, echoing Jamie Dimon's warning about market complacency on tariffs [10][12] - While not the base case, a surprise Fed rate hike would negatively impact equity markets [11]

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Malaysia’s sovereign bond market looks poised to bounce back from recent selling pressure, after a rate cut this week that may fuel bets on further easing. https://t.co/O2jGq1YFDQ ...

BITCOIN WILL PUMP LIKE THIS WHEN THE FED CONFIRMS A RATE CUT! https://t.co/O5RWIepDy1 ...

The RBA is poised for its first back-to-back rate cut in six years. Read today's Australia Briefing, by @argana_carmeli for the best of Bloomberg from Down Under and around the world. https://t.co/ZnGsNqqupx ...

STOCKS ARE HITTING NEW ALL-TIME HIGH AHEAD OF THE SEPTEMBER POTENTIAL FED RATE CUTBITCOIN WILL FOLLOW! https://t.co/oBdOnFqUWw ...

AI and Computing Power Demand - The demand for computing power is insatiable, indicating a long runway for investment in physical infrastructure like semiconductors and cloud [1][2][3] - The expansion between Oracle and Open AI is 45 gigawatts worth of capacity, highlighting the significant energy requirements of AI development [3] - The U S is likely to lead the AI race due to its self-sufficiency and relatively cheap energy production compared to Europe and the U K [5] Energy Sector and Infrastructure - The energy sector and energy infrastructure requirements are intrinsically linked to the need for computing power, leading hyperscalers to invest in energy sources like nuclear [4] - The quest for cheaper, more efficient energy is crucial for supporting data center expansion and AI development [5] Market and Economic Factors - The jobs data is considered "Goldilocks" because of better-than-expected job numbers and a solid labor market, alongside slower wage growth [6][7] - The Federal Reserve is in no urgency to cut rates, which the market seems to prefer, valuing a strong labor market over immediate rate cuts [7] Technology Sector Performance - Technology sector exhibits strong earnings growth and benefits from productivity gains, making it an attractive area for investment [9] - Lower bond yields and interest rates, potentially resulting from future rate cuts, would particularly benefit growth areas like the technology sector [10]

Market Performance & Economic Indicators - The market rallied due to a better-than-expected jobs report [2] - The S&P and NASDAQ reached record highs [2] - The report suggests the economy is still performing well [1] Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, the slowest this year [3] - Less than half of the industries showed job growth [3] - The cyclical part of the economy's labor market is slowing [3] - Job prospects for college graduates worsened [6] Monetary Policy Implications - A July rate cut is unlikely [4] - September rate cut is questionable [4] Fiscal Policy & Social Safety Net - A fiscal package is expected to pass, potentially removing social safety net benefits from lower-income households [7] - Medicaid working requirements may be implemented after the midterm elections [8] - SNAP food assistance could be reduced this year [9] Economic Outlook - A significantly slower economy is anticipated in the second half of the year [9] - Consumer spending is crucial for company revenues and stock market performance [5]

Bitcoin Seesaws as Hot Jobs Report Extinguishes Rate Cut Hopes► https://t.co/9Dgh91gheP https://t.co/9Dgh91gheP ...

- Ignore the tariffs for a second. Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hope that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs and we didn't expect to by now.We've always said that the timing, amount, and persistence of the inflation would be highly uncertain, and it's certainly improved that. So, we're watching, we expect to see, over the summer, some readings, higher readings, but we're prepared to learn that it can be higher or lower or later or sooner than we'd ex ...