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中原期货晨会纪要-20251223
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 01:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may have entered a small year - end rally. Overseas liquidity has improved with the Bank of Japan's dovish rate hike and the Fed's dovish stance. A - share liquidity has also been enhanced by large - scale ETF subscriptions and the trend of RMB appreciation. The operation strategy is to focus on the policy mainline, use dips for layout, take profits during rallies, and keep a flexible position [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical and Agricultural Product Price Changes - **Chemical Products**: On December 23, 2025, among chemical products, PVC had the largest increase with a rise of 2.679% to 4,714.00 yuan, while yellow soybean 2 had the largest decrease in the agricultural products sector, dropping 7.489% to 3,434.00 yuan [4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The central bank introduced a one - time credit repair policy for small - amount personal overdue information. Vanke's 20 - billion - yuan bond extension plan was rejected again, but it won a 30 - trading - day grace period. Precious metals soared on December 22, with gold breaking through $4,440 per ounce and silver exceeding $69 per ounce [6]. - The State Council held a meeting on the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's December LPR remained unchanged for the 7th consecutive month. The National People's Congress heard a report on the rectification of audit problems in the 2024 central budget [7]. - The Central Economic Work Conference deployed multiple key reform tasks. The draft of the Childcare Service Law was submitted for its first review [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: On December 22, the sugar price rose 0.75%. In the short term, it may show a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with support near the cost line. One can consider going long on dips [11]. - **Corn**: The corn futures price was flat on December 22. It has entered a volatile pattern, and short - term interval trading can be considered [11]. - **Pigs**: The current hog futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. There is a weak rebound opportunity, and one can focus on the reverse spread of monthly spreads [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg market is still bearish, and the reverse spread of monthly spreads can be held [11]. - **Cotton**: On December 22, the cotton price rose 0.39%. In the short term, positive factors dominate, and one can go long on dips with support at 14,000 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply - demand pattern shows a double - reduction, and the UR2605 contract may run in the range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is in an oversupply situation, and the main contract continues to be weak [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the coking coal and coke market tends to be volatile [13]. - **Logs**: The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price oscillates between 760 - 800 yuan [14]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has broken through the previous range, but the supply exceeds demand. One should not chase the high price and can pay attention to the support near 5,550 - 5,580 yuan [14]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The offset printing paper price has broken through the previous pressure level. One should not chase the high and can pay attention to the support at 4,000 yuan [14]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: The copper and aluminum market is strong, and they continue to run at high levels, but macro risks should be noted [14]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in an oversupply situation and continues to be weak [15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil market maintains an interval oscillation pattern, with rebar in the range of 3,000 - 3,200 yuan and hot - rolled coil in the range of 3,200 - 3,300 yuan [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: The ferroalloy market follows the trend of the black series. One should not chase the high price at the current high level [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price has broken through the previous range. The short - term upward trend is strong, but the risk of high - level fluctuations increases [15]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On December 22, the A - share market was strong. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities among varieties, and volatility investors can short volatility through the short straddle strategy [16]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has shown signs of stabilization. The market may have entered a small year - end rally. One should focus on the policy mainline and keep a flexible position [18].
破立并举 重点领域改革靶向发力
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-22 20:23
(来源:经济参考报) 其中,市场层面,要持续完善市场运行规则,加快制定全国统一大市场建设条例,完善市场准入、公平 竞争、质量标准等基础制度。着力破除要素获取、资质认定、招标投标、政府采购等方面壁垒。政府层 面,要持续规范地方政府经济促进行为。加快出台地方招商引资鼓励和禁止事项清单,划清红线底线。 企业层面,要深入整治"内卷式"竞争,加快完善重点行业产能调控机制。 "以制度统一破解市场分割,通过制定全国统一大市场建设条例、整治'内卷式'竞争,打通要素流动堵 点,消除地方保护和市场壁垒,引导企业转向创新驱动的质量竞争,为公平竞争筑牢根基。"中国经济 体制改革研究会副会长彭绍宗说。 双向发力激发微观主体活力 中央经济工作会议提出,制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案,完善民营经济促进法配套法规政 策。"会议以双向发力激活微观主体,落实'两个毫不动摇',夯实经济增长内生动力。"彭绍宗说。 相关部门已明确下一步具体改革举措。国务院国资委日前召开会议传达中央经济工作会议精神,提出围 绕制定和实施进一步深化国资国企改革方案,完善主责主业管理,提升战略功能履行实效;完善中国特 色现代企业制度,提升治理体系建设实效。 近日召开 ...
张玉卓:做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-22 07:55
Core Viewpoint - The interview with Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary of the Party Committee and Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), emphasizes the importance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) as a pillar of the party's governance and the need for deepening reforms to strengthen and optimize SOEs and state capital during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2]. Group 1: Enhancing Innovation Capabilities - Central enterprises are identified as the national team for technological innovation, with R&D investments exceeding 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, focusing on key technologies such as industrial mother machines and software [3]. - The goal is to enhance mission awareness and focus on solving major technological issues that affect national development and security, aiming for high-level technological self-reliance [3]. - There is a commitment to increase high-quality technological supply and tackle "bottleneck" areas, ensuring more original achievements in critical technologies [4]. Group 2: Reforming State-Owned Enterprises - The 14th Five-Year Plan outlines clear requirements for deepening SOE reforms, with a focus on enhancing core functions and competitiveness [5]. - The strategy includes improving the service capabilities of SOEs in relation to national strategies, emphasizing the importance of aligning SOE functions with national security and public service needs [5]. - There is a push to enhance the modern enterprise system with a focus on governance, management, and talent cultivation to boost operational efficiency [5]. Group 3: Optimizing Industrial Layout - SOEs are working on upgrading traditional industries while simultaneously fostering emerging industries, with an average annual investment growth rate of over 20% in new industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7]. - The focus will be on transitioning the industrial system towards higher value-added and technology-intensive sectors, playing a leading role in building a modern industrial system [7]. - Efforts will be made to promote digital transformation in traditional industries and integrate advanced technologies such as AI and big data [8]. Group 4: Developing New and Future Industries - The strategy includes identifying and nurturing new industries with significant growth potential, such as renewable energy and aerospace, while also planning for future technologies like quantum science and 6G [8]. - A specialized and market-oriented investment and financing system will be established to support the development of these industries, utilizing various financial tools and funds [8].
人民日报访张玉卓
财联社· 2025-12-22 00:19
12月22日 ,《 人民日报 》第2版刊发《做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神)——访国务院 国资委党委 书记 、主任张玉卓》。 记者: "十五五"规划建议提出,加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关。请问国资央企如何增强自主创新能力,勇当科技创新主力军? 张玉卓: 中央企业是科技创新的国家队,是国家战略科技力量的重要组成部分。近年来,国资央企把科技创新作为"头号任务",全面践行 新型举国体制,研发投入连续3年破万亿元,集中攻克了工业母机、工业软件、基础材料等一批关键核心技术,打造了嫦娥六号、梦想 号、"奋斗者"号等一批举世瞩目的大国重器。 面向"十五五",我们将进一步增强使命意识、紧迫意识,聚焦解决影响制约国家发展安全和长远利益的重大科技问题,大力强化自主创新、 原始创新,为实现高水平科技自立自强、建设科技强国提供坚实支撑。 张玉卓表示,抓好新兴产业和未来产业培育。深入实施焕新、启航行动,突出工程和场景牵引,找准未来5年体量足够大、增速足够快、前 景足够好的新赛道,坚持"梯次培育、分类施策",接续发力新能源、新能源汽车、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等重点领域,积极发展平台 经济, ...
国资委主任张玉卓:做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-21 23:57
习近平总书记强调:"国有企业是我们党执政兴国的重要支柱和依靠力量"。党的二十届四中全会审议通 过的"十五五"规划建议强调,"深化国资国企改革,做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本"。为深入学习贯 彻党的二十届四中全会精神,记者采访了国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓。 切实提高国有经济创新力 记者:"十五五"规划建议提出,加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关。请问国资央企如何增强自主创新能 力,勇当科技创新主力军? 张玉卓:中央企业是科技创新的国家队,是国家战略科技力量的重要组成部分。近年来,国资央企把科 技创新作为"头号任务",全面践行新型举国体制,研发投入连续3年破万亿元,集中攻克了工业母机、 工业软件、基础材料等一批关键核心技术,打造了嫦娥六号、梦想号、"奋斗者"号等一批举世瞩目的大 国重器。 面向"十五五",我们将进一步增强使命意识、紧迫意识,聚焦解决影响制约国家发展安全和长远利益的 重大科技问题,大力强化自主创新、原始创新,为实现高水平科技自立自强、建设科技强国提供坚实支 撑。 着力增加高质量的科技供给。积极承担国家科技攻关任务,努力在受制于人的"卡脖子"领域和薄弱环节 取得更大突破,特别是在投入大、周期长、其他 ...
做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本(权威访谈·学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-21 22:20
着力构建高水平的创新生态。主动发挥大企业支撑引领作用,加强企业主导的产学研深度融合,升级创 新联合体,加快共性技术平台建设,深化国际创新合作,完善要素共投、利益共享、风险共担机制,推 动产业链上中下游企业协同创新,持续激发科技创新的动力活力。 习近平总书记强调:"国有企业是我们党执政兴国的重要支柱和依靠力量"。党的二十届四中全会审议通 过的"十五五"规划建议强调,"深化国资国企改革,做强做优做大国有企业和国有资本"。为深入学习贯 彻党的二十届四中全会精神,记者采访了国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓。 切实提高国有经济创新力 记者:"十五五"规划建议提出,加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关。请问国资央企如何增强自主创新能 力,勇当科技创新主力军? 张玉卓:中央企业是科技创新的国家队,是国家战略科技力量的重要组成部分。近年来,国资央企把科 技创新作为"头号任务",全面践行新型举国体制,研发投入连续3年破万亿元,集中攻克了工业母机、 工业软件、基础材料等一批关键核心技术,打造了嫦娥六号、梦想号、"奋斗者"号等一批举世瞩目的大 国重器。 面向"十五五",我们将进一步增强使命意识、紧迫意识,聚焦解决影响制约国家发展安全和长 ...
不断增强国有企业核心功能、提升核心竞争力——访国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-19 22:09
党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 (以下简称《建议》),对未来五年我国发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。 国资央企怎样落实好《建议》提出的"加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关""巩固壮大实体经济根基""深 化国资国企改革"等关键任务?记者采访了国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓。 四方面着力强化国资央企自主创新、原始创新 问:《建议》提出加快高水平科技自立自强。"十五五"期间,国资央企在全面增强自主创新能力、抢占 科技发展制高点方面,将有哪些重要举措? 答:中央企业是科技创新的国家队,是国家战略科技力量的重要组成部分。近年来,国资央企把科技创 新作为"头号任务",充分发挥新型举国体制优势,研发投入连续三年破万亿元,集中攻克了工业母机、 工业软件、基础材料等一批"卡脖子"关键核心技术,打造了嫦娥六号、"奋斗者"号等一批举世瞩目 的"大国重器"。 面向"十五五",我们将聚焦解决影响国家发展安全和长远利益的重大科技问题,大力强化自主创新、原 始创新,为实现高水平科技自立自强、建设科技强国提供坚实支撑。 一是着力增加高质量的科技供给。国资央企将积极承担国家科技重大任务,努力 ...
国资委主任张玉卓:深入开展新一轮中央企业数字化转型行动 推动人工智能等信息技术与传统产业全过程、全要素深度融合
Xin Hua She· 2025-12-19 13:32
党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 (以下简称《建议》),对未来五年我国发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。 国资央企怎样落实好《建议》提出的"加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关""巩固壮大实体经济根基""深 化国资国企改革"等关键任务?记者采访了国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓。 四方面着力强化国资央企自主创新、原始创新 问:《建议》提出加快高水平科技自立自强。"十五五"期间,国资央企在全面增强自主创新能力、抢占 科技发展制高点方面,将有哪些重要举措? 答:习近平总书记指出,抓产业创新,要守牢实体经济这个根基,坚持推动传统产业改造升级和开辟战 略性新兴产业、未来产业新赛道并重。近年来,国资央企深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要指示精神和党 中央有关决策部署,在传统产业升级和新兴产业培育上协同发力,深入实施中央企业产业焕新、未来产 业启航、"AI+"等专项行动,"十四五"时期新兴产业领域投资年均增速超过20%,在新一代信息技术、 新能源、新材料、高端装备制造等领域打造了一批世界级产业集群,有力推动关键产业爬坡过坎、升级 发展。 "十五五"时期,我们将指导推动央企进一步聚焦主 ...
国资委:加快推动国有资本向关系国家安全、国民经济命脉的重要行业和关键领域集中
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-19 13:19
国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓在接受采访时表示,目前,国有企业改革深化提升行动主体任务已 基本完成。下一步,将着力推进新一轮国资国企改革,坚持问题导向,更加注重改革质效,在更高起点 上把改革不断引向深入,推动国有企业不断增强核心功能、提升核心竞争力。在进一步提升服务国家战 略能力方面,聚焦战略安全、产业引领、国计民生、公共服务等功能,进一步明晰各类企业功能定位, 加强战略使命评价,完善主责主业管理,加快推动国有资本向关系国家安全、国民经济命脉的重要行业 和关键领域集中,向关系国计民生的公共服务、应急能力、公益性领域等集中,向前瞻性战略性新兴产 业集中。(新华社) ...
贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会精神权威访谈丨不断增强国有企业核心功能、提升核心竞争力——访国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-12-19 12:44
新华社北京12月19日电 题:不断增强国有企业核心功能、提升核心竞争力——访国务院国资委党 委书记、主任张玉卓 新华社记者王希 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建 议》(以下简称《建议》),对未来五年我国发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。 国资央企怎样落实好《建议》提出的"加强原始创新和关键核心技术攻关""巩固壮大实体经济根 基""深化国资国企改革"等关键任务?记者采访了国务院国资委党委书记、主任张玉卓。 四方面着力强化国资央企自主创新、原始创新 问:《建议》提出加快高水平科技自立自强。"十五五"期间,国资央企在全面增强自主创新能力、 抢占科技发展制高点方面,将有哪些重要举措? 答:中央企业是科技创新的国家队,是国家战略科技力量的重要组成部分。近年来,国资央企把科 技创新作为"头号任务",充分发挥新型举国体制优势,研发投入连续三年破万亿元,集中攻克了工业母 机、工业软件、基础材料等一批"卡脖子"关键核心技术,打造了嫦娥六号、"奋斗者"号等一批举世瞩目 的"大国重器"。 面向"十五五",我们将聚焦解决影响国家发展安全和长远利益的重大科技问题,大力强化自主创 新、原始创 ...