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商品期权再拾增长动能,寻找不确定中的期权机会
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 03:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's commodity options market regained growth momentum in H1 2025, with cumulative trading volume reaching 595 million lots as of June 15, a significant year-on-year increase of 49% [1][14]. - Macroeconomic and market sentiment elevated the volatility of commodities, with historical and implied volatility showing distinct changes in different sectors [2][37]. - In H2 2025, uncertainties remain in tariff policies and the number and timing of Fed rate cuts. Different option strategies are recommended for various types of commodities [3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025H1 Commodity Options Market Transaction Overview - The pace of new product launches in the commodity options market slowed down. Only one new product was launched in H1 2025, and several other products are expected to be launched this year [11]. - The market regained growth momentum, with daily average trading volume in each month of 2025 exceeding that of the same period in 2024. Most option varieties saw an increase in trading volume [14][18]. - The over - the - counter (OTC) commodity options market remained at the same level as last year, with a decline in trading volume and a "growth rate gap" compared to the on - exchange market [22]. 2. Volatility: Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment Elevate Commodity Volatility 2.1 Historical Volatility - Among 51 underlying futures, 18 varieties rose and 33 fell. Gold, tin, and manganese silicon had the largest increases, while alumina, industrial silicon, and glass had the largest decreases [29]. - The resonance in the commodity market was mainly due to changes in US tariff policies. The 20 - day historical volatility of the commodity index rose sharply in April and then declined [35]. 2.2 Implied Volatility - Overall, the implied volatility of crude oil, chemicals, and non - ferrous metals increased, while that of agricultural products decreased. Crude oil, styrene, and LPG had the largest increases, while iron ore, apples, and rapeseed oil had the largest decreases [37]. - Different sectors showed different implied volatility characteristics. For example, precious metals were affected by geopolitical and trade factors, and energy and chemical products were influenced by geopolitical and policy factors [43][45]. 3. PCR Sentiment Indicator - PCR is an important indicator reflecting market sentiment. Different types of PCR have different relationships with the price of the underlying asset [53]. - The PCR of China's commodity options has a certain indicative effect on the price trend of the underlying futures, but investors should consider multiple factors [63]. 4. H2 2025 Outlook and Option Strategy Recommendations 4.1 International Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - In H2 2025, the impact mechanism of tariffs on the commodity market will change. Key factors to watch include tariff negotiations, US fiscal and monetary policies, and geopolitical situations [66]. - Trump's tariff policy aims to reduce the trade deficit, relieve fiscal pressure, and restrict the development of trading partners. The "Big Beautiful Act" may increase the US fiscal deficit [67][71]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged, adjusted its economic forecast, and the future policy path depends on economic data [74]. 4.2 Domestic Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - China's economy showed strong growth resilience in H1 2025, but price drivers were weak. CPI was weak, while core CPI was more resilient, and PPI continued to decline [81]. - Consumption showed resilience but its sustainability is uncertain. The "trade - in" policy boosted consumption in the short term but may lead to demand overdraft [87][88]. - Exports were strong in H1 but may face headwinds in H2 due to uncertainties in international trade [92][94]. - Real estate investment continued to adjust at the bottom, while infrastructure investment remained strong. New policy - based financial tools are expected to support infrastructure investment [96][97]. 4.3 Option Strategy Recommendations for Some Varieties - For gold and crude oil, investors should focus on opportunities in rising and falling volatility, using strategies such as buying straddles or strangles during policy - driven events and selling options after extreme market conditions [99][101]. - For oversupplied varieties such as black building materials and new energy metals, bear spread and synthetic short futures strategies are recommended [103][104]. - For varieties with potential unilateral upward trends such as copper and oils, buying call options for left - hand side layout is recommended, and a combination of selling wide straddles can be used initially to reduce costs [107][109].
先锋期货期权日报-20250619
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 09:03
先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-19 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标的 | 平值期权隐 | 排名 | 标的30天历 | 排名 | 标的当 = | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含液动率 | | 中波动区 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2508 | 3.7% | 1 | 2.5% | 1 | 4.4% | 2 | | br2507 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.9% | 2 | 1.2% | 29 | | ma508 | 2.4% | 3 | 1.5% | 13 | 3.4% | 3 | | ao2507 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.6% | 5 | 1.6% | ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250618
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 09:03
先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-18 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标的 | 平值期权隐 | 排名 | 标的30天历 | 排名 | 标的当目 | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ad2511 | 32.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 64 | 0.0% | ર્ણ | | sc2508 | 3.3% | 2 | 2.4% | 1 | 5.7% | 1 | | br2507 | 2.4% | 3 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.3% | ા ર | | ao2507 | 2.2% | 4 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.0 ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250616
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 09:35
先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-16 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | ad2511 | 32.0% | 1 | 0.0% | 64 | 0.0% | 65 | | pg2507 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.6% | 10 | 2.9% | 8 | | sc2508 | 2.8% | 3 | 2.3% | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | | eb2507 | 2.6% | 4 | 1.6% | 9 | 2 ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250613
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 09:04
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report dated June 13, 2025, presenting data on option targets' volatility and detailed information on various options across multiple exchanges [1] Group 2: Option Target Volatility Ranking - A table ranks option targets based on at - the - money option implied volatility, 30 - day historical volatility, and daily true range. For example, ad2511 has an implied volatility of 32.0% ranking 1st, sc2508 has a 30 - day historical volatility of 2.4% ranking 2nd, and sc2508 has a daily true range of 8.5% ranking 1st [3] - The table provides guidance for different types of traders. Trend traders can focus on targets with high implied volatility rankings, option sellers can consider the difference between implied and historical volatility rankings, and intraday traders can pay attention to targets with high daily true range rankings [6] Group 3: Exchange - Specific Option Information 3.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 3.1.1 Shanghai 50ETF - The T - type quotation table shows the prices of call and put options at different strike prices and expiration months. The trading volume of the main options is 712,685 lots, the open interest is 1,003,830 lots, the volume ratio of call to put options is 1.07, and the weighted average implied volatility is 13.15% [19][22] - For volatility trading, different implied volatility curves are presented, and the trading advice is to sell options with higher curves and buy those with lower curves, either across different months or within the same month [26] - In risk - free arbitrage, with settlement price transactions, the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity has a minimum annualized return of 20.9%; with counter - price transactions, it is 4.11% [29][31] 3.1.2 Huatai - Berry SSE 300ETF - The T - type quotation table shows option prices. The trading volume of the main options is 627,180 lots, the open interest is 805,897 lots, the volume ratio of call to put options is 1.01, and the weighted average implied volatility is 14.06% [32][34] - Similar to the Shanghai 50ETF, volatility trading advice is based on implied volatility curves. For risk - free arbitrage, the minimum annualized return is 15.9% with settlement price transactions and 3.27% with counter - price transactions [38][41][43] 3.1.3 Southern CSI 500ETF - The T - type quotation table shows option prices. The trading volume of the main options is 1,219,237 lots, the open interest is 891,907 lots, the volume ratio of call to put options is 0.76, and the weighted average implied volatility is 17.14% [44][46] - Volatility trading follows the same curve - based advice. In risk - free arbitrage, the minimum annualized return is 33.7% with settlement price transactions and 6.31% with counter - price transactions [47][51][53] 3.1.4 Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF - The T - type quotation table shows option prices. The trading volume of the main options is 346,522 lots, the open interest is 1,043,619 lots, the volume ratio of call to put options is 1.1, and the weighted average implied volatility is 24.44% [54][56] - Volatility trading advice is based on implied volatility curves. For risk - free arbitrage, the minimum annualized return is 40.3% with settlement price transactions and 5.83% with counter - price transactions [60][63][65] 3.1.5 E Fund SSE STAR 50ETF - The T - type quotation table shows option prices. The trading volume of the main options is 103,497 lots, the open interest is 305,485 lots, the volume ratio of call to put options is 1.16, and the weighted average implied volatility is 26.07% [66][68] - Volatility trading advice is consistent with other options, and specific risk - free arbitrage data is not provided in the given text [72] 3.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options - The report's table of contents lists options such as嘉实沪深 300ETF, E Fund ChiNext ETF,嘉实中证 500ETF, and E Fund Shenzhen 100ETF, including basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, but detailed data is not fully presented in the provided text [9] 3.3 China Financial Futures Exchange Options - Options like SSE 300, CSI 1000, and SSE 50 are listed in the table of contents, covering basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, with incomplete detailed data in the provided text [9] 3.4 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Options - Options such as sugar, cotton, PTA, methanol, etc. are included in the table of contents, with details on basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, but specific data is not fully shown [10] 3.5 Dalian Commodity Exchange Options - Options like soybean meal, corn, iron ore, etc. are listed in the table of contents, with information on basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, and detailed data is not fully presented [13] 3.6 Shanghai Futures Exchange Options - Options such as copper, rubber, gold, etc. are included in the table of contents, with details on basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, but specific data is not fully provided [15] 3.7 Shanghai International Energy Exchange Options - Crude oil options are listed in the table of contents, including basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, with incomplete detailed data [17] 3.8 Guangzhou Futures Exchange Options - Options such as industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon are included in the table of contents, with details on basic information, volatility trading, and risk - free arbitrage, but specific data is not fully shown [18]
先锋期货期权日报-20250609
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-09 09:05
先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-9 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标的 | 平值期权隐 | 排名 | 标的30天历 | 排名 | 标的当日 | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 中波动画 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2507 | 2.5% | 1 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.3% | 10 | | fg507 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.6% | 12 | 2.1% | 14 | | ag2507 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.4% | 14 | 1.4% | 24 | | ao2507 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.6% | 1 | 2.7% | ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250605
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 09:04
先锋期货期权日报 2025-6-5 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标的 | 平值期权隐 | 排名 | 标的30天历 | 排名 | 标的当日 | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2507 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.0% | 10 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.3% | 17 | 0.8% | 42 | | ps2507 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.9% | 4 | 2.0% | 11 | | si2507 | 2.1% | 4 | 1.8% | 8 | 2.6% | ...
先锋期货期权日报-20250604
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 09:32
Report Information - Report Name: Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report - Date: June 4, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various options, including their implied volatility, historical volatility, and real - time volatility. It also offers trading suggestions for different types of traders based on these volatility indicators [3][6] Directory Summary 1. Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 1.1 Shanghai 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai 50ETF options is 500,820 lots, the open interest is 971,866 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.22, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 13.37% [19][22] - **Volatility Trading**: Suggestions include selling options in months with higher implied volatility curves and buying those in months with lower curves; also, selling options with higher points on the curve and buying those with lower points within the same month [25] - **Risk - free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 5.13% at the settlement price and 0.45% at the counter - price [29][31] 1.2 Huatai - Berry SSE 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main Huatai - Berry SSE 300ETF options is 413,524 lots, the open interest is 816,520 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.22, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 13.84% [32][34] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar to the Shanghai 50ETF, sell options in months with higher curves and buy those in months with lower curves; sell high - point options and buy low - point options within the same month [38] - **Risk - free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 8.41% at the settlement price and 2.06% at the counter - price [41][43] 1.3 Southern CSI 500ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main Southern CSI 500ETF options is 784,596 lots, the open interest is 883,992 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.91, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 17% [44][47] - **Volatility Trading**: Follow the rule of selling high - curve months and buying low - curve months, and selling high - point options and buying low - point options within the same month [49] - **Risk - free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 36.9% at the settlement price and 8.92% at the counter - price [53][55] 1.4 Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF options is 215,664 lots, the open interest is 987,709 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.45, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 25.5% [56][58] - **Volatility Trading**: Adopt the strategy of selling high - curve months and buying low - curve months, and selling high - point options and buying low - point options within the same month [62] - **Risk - free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 47.8% at the settlement price and 8.12% at the counter - price [65][67] 1.5 E Fund SSE STAR 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main E Fund SSE STAR 50ETF options is 64,662 lots, the open interest is 298,160 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.09, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 29.55% [68][70] - **Volatility Trading**: Use the method of selling high - curve months and buying low - curve months, and selling high - point options and buying low - point options within the same month [72] - **Risk - free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 47.7% at the settlement price [76]
先锋期货期权日报-20250529
Xian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 09:05
先锋期货期权日报 2025-5-29 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现,未来的回报也无法保证,投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下,我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任,投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下,我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | sc2507 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.2% | 2 | 3.2% | 4 | | ps2507 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.8% | 8 | 2.1% | 17 | | si2507 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.7% | 9 | 2.6% | 11 | | sn2507 | 2.1% | 4 | 0.9% | 33 | 1. ...