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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On December 31, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline significantly. The closing price of the main platinum contract on GFEX was 589.85 yuan/gram, a 13% drop, and the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, also a 13% drop. The approaching New Year's holiday led to weak market sentiment and capital outflows, causing the sharp decline [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. The supply - demand situation of palladium shows that although it is loose in the long - term, the short - term spot shortage and favorable macro - environment suggest that the palladium price will also fluctuate with an upward trend. However, due to the sharp price fluctuations in the short - term and the approaching holiday, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main platinum contract on GFEX closed at 589.85 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: After the price correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 31, the domestic closing time of the main platinum contract on GFEX had a premium of 35.16 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included), still higher than the import cost, so there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity and the price difference is expected to converge in the future. But due to issues like hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. In terms of supply, South Africa, the major producer of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2]. Palladium - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main palladium contract on GFEX closed at 447.45 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary supply shortage in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate - cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price [3]. - **Outlook**: The price of palladium is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [3]. Commodity Index (December 30, 2025) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial product index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 30, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2675.54. The daily increase was - 0.03%, the increase in the past 5 days was + 1.47%, the increase in the past month was + 6.49%, and the increase from the beginning of the year to the present was + 15.91% [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On December 29, platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit down at the end of the session. The closing price of the GFEX platinum主力 contract was 634.35 yuan/gram, a 10% decline, and that of the palladium主力 contract was 494.1 yuan/gram, also a 10% decline [2]. - Due to pre - holiday sentiment weakening and capital profit - taking, platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected, and continued vigilance against large - scale price fluctuations is required [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - **Main Logic**: After the correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 29, the GFEX platinum主力 contract had a premium of 39.13 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) at the domestic closing time, still higher than the import cost, indicating an arbitrage opportunity and a tendency for the price difference to converge in the future. However, due to issues such as hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with relatively stable demand in the automotive catalyst sector, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, price fluctuations have intensified. It is advisable to trade cautiously during the holiday period, or take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is a key factor affecting the supply of palladium. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is expected to ease, the short - term shortage of spot goods keeps the price firm, and with the Fed re - entering the interest rate - cut cycle, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [4]. - **Outlook**: With the short - term shortage of spot and a favorable macro environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate upward. However, in the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading and wait for the price to correct to an appropriate level. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [4]. Commodity Indexes (December 29, 2025) - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The comprehensive index was 2339.89, a 0.59% decline; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, a 0.42% decline; the industrial products index was 2258.87, a 0.70% decline [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On December 29, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [51].

12月29日，国内唯一主投白银期货的公募基金国投白银LOF（161226.SZ）再现极端波动。该基金在复 牌后，开盘即一字跌停，随后被大量买单迅速撬开，价格直线拉升，最高报2.767元，距涨停价仅差 0.009元，截至午盘报2.746元，涨幅达8.8%，溢价率为34.06%，日内"过山车"行情让市场瞩目。 此次极端波动与白银市场的剧烈震荡深度绑定。12月29日，现货白银开盘后快速拉升，一度涨近6%突 破83.99美元/盎司，刷新历史新高，年内涨幅超170%，远超黄金72%的同期表现。但随后银价突然直线 跳水，跌幅一度扩大超5%，但之后又再度拉升，截至11时46分，涨幅维持在1.24%。 然而所谓"无风险收益"实则暗藏陷阱。国投瑞银基金已连发10余次风险提示，指出高溢价不具备可持续 性，并采取早盘停牌1小时、调整A类份额限购金额等降温措施。更关键的是，T+2结算机制让套利资金 陷入流动性困境。 事实正是如此。随着套利资金形成庞大的潜在抛压，12月25日、26日基金连续两个交易日跌停，溢价率 从近70%快速收敛至不足30%，部分套利资金无法及时卖出。 值得注意的，作为基金管理人，国投瑞银此前就曾发文提醒道，国投白 ...

12月29日，国内唯一主投白银期货的公募基金国投白银LOF(161226.SZ)再现极端波动。该基金在复牌后，开盘即一字跌停，随 后被大量买单迅速撬开，价格直线拉升，最高报2.767元，距涨停价仅差0.009元，截至午盘报2.746元，涨幅达8.8%，溢价率为 34.06%，日内"过山车"行情让市场瞩目。 此次极端波动与白银市场的剧烈震荡深度绑定。12月29日，现货白银开盘后快速拉升，一度涨近6%突破83.99美元/盎司，刷新 历史新高，年内涨幅超170%，远超黄金72%的同期表现。但随后银价突然直线跳水，跌幅一度扩大超5%，但之后又再度拉升， 截至11时46分，涨幅维持在1.24%。 而作为国内唯一主投白银期货的公募基金，在2025年白银领涨全球贵金属的行情下，国投白银LOF规模从2024年末21.78亿元激 增至2025年三季度66.4亿元，年内涨幅超200%，成为投资者布局白银的稀缺标的，但受限于持仓限制、流动性等因素，基金净 值涨幅难以跟上白银期货走势，叠加场外限购政策，场内价格与净值严重背离，溢价率持续走高。 12月22日至24日，该基金连续三个交易日涨停，24日溢价率高达68.19%。社交平台上" ...

Group 1: Report on Platinum and Palladium Market Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium prices showed a divergent trend. The GFEX platinum main contract closed higher at 686.95 yuan/gram, up 4.51%, while the palladium main contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram, down 7.65%. With the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, some funds started to take profits after a significant rally, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of large price fluctuations at high levels [1]. - For platinum, due to spot shortages and relatively loose market liquidity, the price trend is strong. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward, but in the short term, the price is highly volatile at high levels [1][2]. - For palladium, the tightness in the spot market has eased, and the price has significantly corrected. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage keeps the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [3]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 54.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, and there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term spread may still be high [1]. - **Supply**: South Africa, the main global supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future [1]. - **Demand**: The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding [1]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended that long - position holders gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of long platinum and short palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for internal - external positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX palladium main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX palladium (tax - included) was as high as 58.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Supply**: The Russian geopolitical issue is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [3]. - **Demand**: Palladium shows significant structural pressure [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for the price to correct [3]. Group 2: Report on Commodity Index Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index all declined slightly, and the有色金属 index also declined slightly on that day but had a positive increase in the past 5 days, 1 month, and year - to - date [48][50]. Summary by Related Content - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [48]. - **有色金属 Index**: On December 25, the有色金属 index was 2629.88, with a daily decline of 0.26%, a 5 - day increase of 2.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.93% [50].