先锋期货期权日报 2025-11-24 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | lc2601 | 3.3% | 1 | 3.7% | 1 | 3.2% | 4 | | ps2601 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.4% | 2 | 2.0% | 16 | | fg601 | 2.4% | 3 | 1.4% | 10 | 3.7% | 2 | | 科创50etf11月 | 2.3% | 4 | 1.6% | 7 | ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-11-21 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | lc2601 | 3.2% | 1 | 3.6% | 1 | 8.7% | 1 | | ps2601 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.3% | 2 | 3.5% | 10 | | si2601 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.8% | 7 | 2.2% | 24 | | ag2512 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.2% | 3 | 4. ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-11-20 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | lc2601 | 3.7% | 1 | 3.0% | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | | ps2601 | 2.8% | 2 | 2.3% | 2 | 6.0% | 1 | | si2601 | 2.5% | 3 | 1.8% | 7 | 4.0% | 4 | | ag2512 | 2.3% | 4 | 2.1% | 3 | 3.2% ...

先锋期货期权日报 2025-11-18 风险揭示 本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。本报告所载 的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用。过去的表现并不代表未来 的表现，未来的回报也无法保证，投资者可能会损失本金。 在任何情况下，我们不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损 失负任何责任，投资者需自行承担风险。此报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合 阁下，我们建议阁下如有任何疑问应咨询独立投资顾问。 | 标 的 | 平值期权隐 | 排 名 | 标的30天历 | 排 名 | 标的当日 | 排 名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 含波动率 | | 史波动率 | | 真实波幅 | | | lc2601 | 3.4% | 1 | 2.9% | 1 | 4.4% | 1 | | ps2601 | 2.6% | 2 | 2.1% | 3 | 2.2% | 13 | | ag2512 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.2% | 2 | 2.8% | 2 | | 科创板50etf3月 | 2.2% | 4 | 1.8% | 5 | ...

1. Report Summary - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [1] - Report Name: Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report 2. Options Underlying Volatility Ranking - The report presents a ranking of options underlying based on three volatility metrics: implied volatility of at - the - money options, 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying, and the underlying's true range on the day. For example, ps2512 ranks first in implied volatility of at - the - money options with 3.1%, while rm601 ranks first in the underlying's true range on the day with 4.8% [3][4]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options reflects the market's expectation of future fluctuations of the variety, the 30 - day historical volatility reflects the past actual market size, and the true range on the day reflects the intraday market size [5]. 3. Exchange - Specific Options Analysis 3.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 3.1.1 Shanghai 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of Shanghai 50ETF on the day is 632,460 lots, the open interest is 897,163 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.45, and the weighted average implied volatility is 15.93% [19][21]. - **Volatility Trading**: Volatility trading suggestions include selling the month with the curve on top and buying the month with the curve below for different months, and selling the option with the point above the curve and buying the option with the point below the curve for the same month [26]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 4.67% when trading at the settlement price and 1.16% when trading at the counter - party price [28][30]. 3.1.2 Huatai - Berry SSE 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of Huatai - Berry SSE 300ETF on the day is 670,871 lots, the open interest is 740,234 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.23, and the weighted average implied volatility is 16.61% [31][33]. - **Volatility Trading**: Similar to Shanghai 50ETF, sell the month with the curve on top and buy the month with the curve below for different months, and sell the option with the point above the curve and buy the option with the point below the curve for the same month [37]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 4.45% when trading at the settlement price and 0.18% when trading at the counter - party price [40][42]. 3.1.3 Southern CSI 500ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of Southern CSI 500ETF on the day is 1,244,691 lots, the open interest is 790,230 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.9, and the weighted average implied volatility is 20.66% [43][45]. - **Volatility Trading**: Follow the same volatility trading suggestions as above [49]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 25.3% when trading at the settlement price and 5.60% when trading at the counter - party price [52][54]. 3.1.4 Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF on the day is 995,460 lots, the open interest is 1,173,825 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.15, and the weighted average implied volatility is 37.4% [55][57]. - **Volatility Trading**: Adopt the same volatility trading strategies [62]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 12.3% when trading at the settlement price and 0.66% when trading at the counter - party price [64][66]. 3.1.5 E Fund SSE STAR 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of E Fund SSE STAR 50ETF on the day is 194,205 lots, the open interest is 286,584 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.34, and the weighted average implied volatility is 38.24% [67][68]. - **Volatility Trading**: Use the same volatility trading methods [72]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 14.6% when trading at the settlement price and 2.75% when trading at the counter - party price [76][78]. 3.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options 3.2.1 Harvest SSE 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main options of Harvest SSE 300ETF on the day is 126,768 lots, the open interest is 151,843 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 0.96, and the weighted average implied volatility is 17.72% [79][81]. - **Volatility Trading**: Apply the same volatility trading suggestions [87]. - **Risk - Free Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 19.4% when trading at the settlement price and 1.52% when trading at the counter - party price [89][91].

1. Report Summary - **Report Title**: Pioneer Futures Options Daily Report - **Report Date**: October 31, 2025 - **Report Type**: Futures and Options Market Analysis 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the options market, including the volatility rankings of various option underlying assets, and offers trading suggestions for volatility trading and risk - free arbitrage in different exchange - listed options [3][5]. 3. Key Information by Category 3.1 Option Underlying Volatility Ranking - The report presents a list of option underlying assets' volatility rankings, including at - the - money implied volatility, 30 - day historical volatility, and daily true volatility. For example, 'ps2512' has an at - the - money implied volatility of 2.7%, ranking 1st; 30 - day historical volatility of 2.1%, ranking 6th; and daily true volatility of 2.9%, ranking 5th [3]. 3.2 Exchange - Listed Options Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options - **Shanghai 50ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 755,468 lots, the open interest is 848,612 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.16, and the weighted average implied volatility is 15.82%. Volatility trading suggestions are to sell the month with the upper curve and buy the month with the lower curve for different months; sell the option with the upper point on the curve and buy the option with the lower point on the curve for the same month. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 6.58% at the settlement price and 1.26% at the counter - party price [19][22][26]. - **Huatai - Berich CSI 300ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 797,684 lots, the open interest is 720,276 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.24, and the weighted average implied volatility is 16.72%. Similar volatility trading suggestions are provided. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 3.54% at the settlement price and 1.23% at the counter - party price [29][34][38]. - **Southern CSI 500ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,271,310 lots, the open interest is 772,262 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.09, and the weighted average implied volatility is 20.48%. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 22.8% at the settlement price and 5.57% at the counter - party price [40][47][49]. - **Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,127,777 lots, the open interest is 1,153,991 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.29, and the weighted average implied volatility is 37.07%. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 12.7% at the settlement price and 1.58% at the counter - party price [52][56][60]. - **E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 218,476 lots, the open interest is 277,730 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.41, and the weighted average implied volatility is 37.35%. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 23.5% at the settlement price and 4.61% at the counter - party price [63][69][72]. 3.2.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options - **Harvest CSI 300ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 116,253 lots, the open interest is 146,481 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.29, and the weighted average implied volatility is 17.51%. The minimum annualized yield of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 8.65% at the settlement price and 0.10% at the counter - party price [75][83][86]. - **E Fund ChiNext ETF**: The trading volume of the main options is 1,736,584 lots, the open interest is 1,044,215 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.09, and the weighted average implied volatility is 33.19% [89][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the option market data of various ETFs and futures on October 30, 2025, including option prices, trading volumes, open interests, implied volatilities, etc. It also provides volatility trading suggestions and no - risk arbitrage returns for different options [3][21][22] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Shanghai Stock Exchange Options 3.1.1 Shanghai 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the Shanghai 50ETF's main - contract options is 716,537 lots, the open interest is 766,270 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.41, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 15.68% [21] - **Volatility Trading**: Sell the options with the upper curve in different months or points on the upper curve in the same month, and buy the corresponding lower ones [22] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 2.03% at the settlement price and 0.63% at the counter - price [26][28] 3.1.2 Huatai - Ber瑞沪深 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 790,805 lots, the open interest is 660,654 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.46, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 16.41% [31] - **Volatility Trading**: Similar to the Shanghai 50ETF, sell high and buy low based on the curve position [37] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 7.10% at the settlement price and 1.25% at the counter - price [39][41] 3.1.3 Southern China CSI 500ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 1,263,496 lots, the open interest is 728,253 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.14, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 20.61% [44] - **Volatility Trading**: Follow the rule of selling high and buying low on the volatility curve [49] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 30.5% at the settlement price and 6.36% at the counter - price [51][53] 3.1.4 Huaxia Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 1,085,084 lots, the open interest is 1,074,857 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.64, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 36.68% [55] - **Volatility Trading**: Sell the upper - curve options and buy the lower - curve ones [57] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 13.0% at the settlement price and 3.81% at the counter - price [61][62] 3.1.5 E Fund Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 183,339 lots, the open interest is 258,779 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 2.27, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 36.56% [64] - **Volatility Trading**: Adopt the strategy of selling high and buying low on the volatility curve [68][69] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 17.6% at the settlement price and 4.69% at the counter - price [73][75] 3.2 Shenzhen Stock Exchange Options 3.2.1 Harvest CSI 300ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 125,725 lots, the open interest is 134,920 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.47, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 17.79% [78] - **Volatility Trading**: Sell options on the upper curve and buy those on the lower curve [84] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 18.1% at the settlement price and 1.89% at the counter - price [86][87] 3.2.2 E Fund ChiNext ETF - **Basic Information**: The trading volume of the main - contract options is 1,827,537 lots, the open interest is 1,014,874 lots, the trading volume ratio of call options to put options is 1.22, and the weighted - average implied volatility is 34.38% [90] - **Volatility Trading**: Follow the high - selling and low - buying rule on the volatility curve [92] - **No - risk Arbitrage**: The minimum annualized return of the optimal arbitrage portfolio held to maturity is 13.1% at the settlement price and 2.96% at the counter - price [96][98]

Market Overview - On October 22, PTA futures experienced a slight upward trend, with a general atmosphere of negotiation in the spot market. The spot basis remained weak, and some mainstream suppliers were making sales, while trading discussions were the main focus, resulting in acceptable transaction volumes. October cargo was traded at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations around 4340-4400. For November, transaction volumes increased, with trades at a discount of -80 and -70 for the first and second halves, respectively. The mainstream spot basis was at -88 [1]. Profitability - As of October 22, the PTA spot processing fee was around 95 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 235 yuan/ton and 257 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 22, the price of polyester yarn showed mixed trends, with sales volume increasing towards the end of the day. Raw material prices rose, but yarn prices saw limited increases, with some downstream sectors replenishing stock. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY remains at a loss. The arrival of cold air has supported the "Silver October" sales, with winter clothing sales starting. Future attention will be on raw material trends [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent production of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some mainstream PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, short-term PTA may be supported by the rebound in oil prices and improved supply-demand expectations for raw material PX. The strategy suggests a low-level short position and a rolling reverse spread for TA1-5 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent collapse of the USDe stablecoin, highlighting the inherent risks and vulnerabilities associated with algorithmic stablecoins, particularly in volatile market conditions [2][3][15]. Group 1: USDe's Collapse - On October 11, 2023, USDe, the third-largest stablecoin, experienced a sudden drop from approximately $1 to $0.65 on Binance, leading to a significant loss of market value [2][6]. - The initial appeal of USDe was its promise of high yields, which attracted substantial investment, but this very feature contributed to its instability during market turbulence [4][5][10]. - The collapse was triggered by external market factors, including a significant drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices due to geopolitical tensions, resulting in a broader sell-off in the crypto market [11][12]. Group 2: Mechanism of USDe - USDe operates on a decentralized model, relying on collateralization with assets like ETH and utilizing derivatives for hedging, which theoretically maintains its peg to the dollar [9][10]. - The stability of USDe is contingent upon market liquidity and the effectiveness of its hedging mechanisms; however, during extreme market conditions, these mechanisms can fail, leading to significant price deviations [12][15]. - The incident primarily occurred on Binance, where high leverage and trading volume exacerbated the price drop, contrasting with other exchanges where USDe remained more stable [13][14]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Stablecoins - The event raises questions about the reliability of algorithmic stablecoins compared to traditional stablecoins like USDT and USDC, which are backed by fiat reserves [17][21]. - The article emphasizes that the concept of stablecoins is not new and has historical roots in systems like the gold standard, where trust in the backing asset was crucial for stability [18][20]. - Trust remains the fundamental element for the stability of any currency, including stablecoins, and the recent events highlight the fragility of this trust in the absence of robust backing [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to distinguish between normal market strategy behaviors and illegal arbitrage in the electricity spot market, advocating for improved market rules and regulations to enhance market integrity and efficiency [1][3][12]. Group 1: Understanding Arbitrage - Arbitrage is defined as a risk-free profit opportunity, which is rare in efficient markets; persistent arbitrage opportunities often indicate flaws in market rules or systems [2][3]. - Two types of arbitrage are identified: "risk-free arbitrage," which exploits market rule deficiencies, and "compliant arbitrage," which utilizes natural price differences to enhance market efficiency [2][3]. Group 2: Market Behavior and Regulation - The article discusses the importance of recognizing normal strategic behaviors in the market, such as users adjusting their electricity declarations based on price predictions, which should not be overly interfered with [4][5]. - It highlights that excessive intervention in normal market behaviors can hinder market efficiency and price discovery [5][12]. Group 3: Improving Market Rules - The need for refining electricity market rules to eliminate risk-free arbitrage opportunities is stressed, with examples provided on how current rules may inadvertently allow such practices [6][7][8]. - Recommendations include aligning demand response compensation standards with market price ceilings to prevent arbitrage and ensure fair pricing [8][10]. Group 4: Market Mechanism Coordination - The article points out that misalignment between price mechanisms can lead to arbitrage opportunities, particularly in the context of long-term and spot market price differences [9][10]. - It suggests that improving the coordination of pricing mechanisms and enhancing transparency in market information can mitigate risks associated with arbitrage [10][11]. Group 5: Long-term Market Development - The article advocates for accelerating the marketization of the electricity sector and fostering technological innovation to address various coordination issues within the market [10][11]. - It emphasizes the importance of a well-designed market structure that minimizes arbitrage opportunities while promoting fair competition and resource allocation [12].