商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 巴西糖库存下降，原糖短期有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-16 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 ...

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场对贸易前景观望，软商品短期震荡为主 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-15 商品研究 [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - In the 2024/25 season, sugar mills in major sugar - producing areas (except Yunnan) have started to close, and a restorative increase in sugar production is certain. Holiday consumption has supported sugar prices. Internationally, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season has begun, but due to weather factors, production is uncertain, and international sugar prices are expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. Attention should be paid to domestic sugarcane and beet planting and growth, as well as Brazil's sugar production progress [1] - Due to US tariff increases on Chinese exports, China's textile and clothing exports have slowed, with consumption decreasing by 200,000 tons to 760,000 tons and imports decreasing by 200,000 tons to 150,000 tons. High temperatures in most parts of Xinjiang are generally beneficial for cotton sowing [1] Data Summary Price Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the price of US sugar remained at $17.83, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton remained at $65.84, with a 0.00% change [3] - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning increased from 6160.0 to 6170.0, a 0.16% increase; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 6060.0 to 6025.0, a - 0.58% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a 0.93% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14300.0 to 14000.0, a - 2.10% change [3] Spread Data - From April 12 to April 13, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, SR09 - 01, CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, CF09 - 01, sugar 01 basis, sugar 05 basis, sugar 09 basis, cotton 01 basis, cotton 05 basis, and cotton 09 basis all had a 0.00% change [3] Import Price and Profit Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased from 78.55 to 78.3, a - 0.32% change; the sugar import profit remained at 1155.0, with a 0.00% change [3] Option Data - The implied volatility of SR505C6100 is 0.1404, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.74; the implied volatility of SR505P6100 is 0.3474. The implied volatility of CF505C12800 is 0.2278, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying CF505 is 12.01; the implied volatility of CF505P12800 is 0.1399 [3] Warehouse Receipt Data - From April 10 to April 11, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained at 27410.0, with a 0.00% change; the number of cotton warehouse receipts increased from 9380.0 to 9507.0, a 1.35% increase [3] Company Information - CINDA Futures Co., Ltd. is a large - scale, standardized, and high - reputation futures company in China. It is wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Due to the increasing uncertainty in the global trade outlook, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach for soft commodities in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Sugar - As of the end of February 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China reached 9.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.77 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.97 million tons; the sales progress was 48.9%, 1.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year [1] - In March 2025, continuous rainfall in Guangxi, Yunnan and other places alleviated the drought, which is beneficial to sugarcane growth, but future weather changes need to be monitored [1] - In the international market, Brazil's sugar production decreased compared to the previous year, and India's production did not meet expectations, leading to a further widening of the international supply - demand gap [1] Cotton - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory remains at the highest level in the past five years, with relatively sufficient supply [1] - After the Spring Festival, textile enterprises gradually resumed production, the operating rate rose to a high level, and the outbound speed of textile products also accelerated [1] - In the international market, the cotton export volumes of the United States and Brazil increased compared to the same period last year, and the outlook for the textile industry is cautiously optimistic [1] - The new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is about to enter the sowing season, and the sowing situation in major producing countries needs to be followed [1] Data Overview Outer - Market Quotes - On April 8 - 9, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 18.3 dollars to 17.89 dollars, a decline of 2.24%; the price of US cotton increased from 65.66 dollars to 66.51 dollars, an increase of 1.29% [3] Spot Prices - From April 8 to 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning decreased from 6150.0 yuan to 6130.0 yuan, a decline of 0.33%; in Kunming, it decreased from 6040.0 yuan to 5995.0 yuan, a decline of 0.75% [3] - The cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a decline of 0.89%; the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14600.0 yuan to 14350.0 yuan, a decline of 1.71% [3] Spread Overview - Various sugar and cotton spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease from April 8 to 9, 2025, such as SR01 - 05 spread increasing by 1.37%, SR05 - 09 spread decreasing by 14.88% [3] Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 77.95 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1103.5 dollars from April 8 to 9, 2025 [3] Options - The implied volatility of SR505C6000 is 0.1193, and the historical volatility of its futures underlying SR505 is 10.45; for other options, similar data are provided [3] Warehouse Receipts - The number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 27410.0 from April 8 to 9, 2025; the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9423.0 to 9365.0, a decline of 0.62% [3]