Joining me now to talk about this is Independent Institute senior fellow and former Federal Reserve Board nominee Judy Shelton. Uh Judy, let me just jump to it. Let's talk first about whom you are favoring among the five candidates on the short list and then we'll get to who you do not think should get the job.>> Well, I think Kevin Hasset would be an excellent choice. Uh we just heard in that answer that um he's not willing to say exactly what he will do over the next six months. Yeah.>> But I think the th ...

Economic Overview - The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) recent repo rate cut of 25 basis points to 5.25% signals a strong easing approach despite headline GDP growth exceeding 8% [1][19] - The RBI's actions, including a liquidity injection of Rs 1 lakh crore through open market bond purchases and a $5 billion dollar–rupee swap, indicate a need for economic support [1][19] Inflation and GDP Analysis - The Indian economy is experiencing rapid disinflation, with inflation at an unprecedented low, while real GDP growth is accelerating, creating a favorable economic environment [1][19] - Despite a reported Q3 growth of 8.2% year-on-year, the underlying strength appears uneven, with sequential growth stable at 1.8% quarter-on-quarter [6][19] - Nominal GDP growth has cooled to 8.7%, influenced by a GDP deflator that has dropped to 0.5%, suggesting that real growth may be overstated [7][19] External Economic Pressures - The rupee has declined nearly 5% this year, becoming the worst-performing currency in Asia, driven by a record merchandise trade deficit and weak exports due to tariffs [9][10] - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have withdrawn over Rs 1.5 lakh crore this year, indicating a lack of confidence in the market amid stalled trade negotiations [13][19] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts express concern over the underlying health of the economy, questioning the necessity of such significant easing measures when headline growth appears robust [5][19] - Despite the current market challenges, major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs predict a rebound in India's markets next year as earnings stabilize and policy support is expected to take effect [17][19]

Economic Indicators - Japan's household spending unexpectedly fell at the fastest rate in nearly two years in October, indicating the impact of inflation on consumer spending power [2] - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 1.94%, the highest since mid-2007, with a projected rise of 13.5 basis points for the week, marking the steepest increase since March [2] Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index dropped by 1.5%, erasing gains made earlier in the week, while the MSCI Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell by 0.1% but was still set for a weekly gain of 0.5% [1] - A quarter-point rate hike from the Bank of Japan is now priced at 75%, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda about considering the implications of raising interest rates [4] Currency and Capital Flows - The Japanese yen remained stable at 155 per dollar, above its 10-month low of 157.9, reflecting shifting capital flows and changing market expectations [3] - Analysts noted that long-standing expectations regarding a permanently cheap yen are being challenged, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [3] Global Market Overview - In other markets, Australia's resource-heavy shares remained mostly unchanged, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index decreased by 0.5% and South Korea's shares increased by 0.7% [5] - The US dollar steadied after a nine-session decline, trading down 0.1% to 99 against major peers, and down 0.5% for the week [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for September is expected to show a 0.2% rise in the core measure, maintaining an annual rate of 2.9% [6] - The US non-farm payrolls report was not released, but jobless claims showed a significant drop, alleviating concerns about the labor market [7]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown but is not in a recession, with growth projected around high 1% and not quite reaching 2% through 2026 [1][2] - Historical long-term trend growth for the US is approximately 2% real GDP, indicating current growth is slightly below this trend [2] Federal Reserve Actions - Anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts expected through 2026 [3][5] - The Fed is moving towards a neutral rate around 3%, allowing room for cuts [5] Fiscal Policy Impact - Fiscal policies are providing tailwinds for the economy, including benefits from a significant bill that stimulates both companies and individuals [3][4] - Tax benefits for individuals are projected to average between $2,000 to $2,500 per person in 2026 [4] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate, with challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% target [6][8] - Rents and housing costs are anticipated to contribute positively to the inflation narrative as they decline [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current dovish stance of the Fed is expected to remain, with a focus on balancing inflation concerns and employment [10][11] - The uncertainty regarding the leadership of the Fed may impact market sentiment and risk in 2026 [9]

RT Anza (@anza_xyz)1/ SIMD-0411, authored by @__lostin__ & @0xIchigo, proposes updating the inflation schedule by increasing the disinflation rate from -15% to -30%. This effectively doubles the pace of inflation decline to reach terminal rates sooner. Here’s what changes 🧵 https://t.co/KbgK2Wg9Vv ...

RT Anza (@anza_xyz)1/ SIMD-0411, authored by @__lostin__ & @0xIchigo, proposes updating the inflation schedule by increasing the disinflation rate from -15% to -30%. This effectively doubles the pace of inflation decline to reach terminal rates sooner. Here’s what changes 🧵 https://t.co/KbgK2Wg9Vv ...

Core Insights - Brazil's central bank president, Gabriel Galipolo, indicated that China is exporting "disinflation or even deflation" to Brazil through a surge in low-cost imports, which is easing inflation in the short term [1][3] - The increase in Brazilian imports from China, coupled with falling prices, is seen as a response to deeper imbalances in global trade [1][3] Economic Impact - Galipolo noted that the influx of cheaper Chinese goods is offsetting potential negative impacts on Brazil's current account deficit and inflation [2] - Disinflation and deflation are viewed as signs of weakening demand, which can discourage investment and spending, potentially harming economic growth [3] Trade Dynamics - China's industrial oversupply, resulting from a shift in investment from property construction to manufacturing, has led to factories producing more than domestic demand [3][4] - The trend of lower-priced imports from China helps restrain inflation in Brazil, allowing the central bank to maintain stable interest rates, but it also poses challenges for local manufacturers who struggle to compete on price [4] Policy Response - In response to the influx of low-cost imports, Brazil introduced the "blouse tax" in 2024, which imposes a 20% tax on international purchases under US$50, along with a state value-added tax of about 17% [5] - The government aims to level the playing field for domestic retailers and increase revenue, although critics argue it may make online goods unaffordable for low-income consumers [5][6] E-commerce Adaptation - Major e-commerce firms, such as Shopee, have had to adapt to the new tax regime by building distribution centers in Brazil and sourcing most of their sales from local sellers [6]

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 26 November 2025 Global Inflation Outlook 2026 Inflation breakeven divergence Rates Strategy Francis Diamond AC (44-20) 7134-1504 francis.diamond@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Frida Infante (33 1) 8703 2581 frida.infante@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Phoebe White (1-212) 834-3092 phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230 liam.wash@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Takafumi Yamawaki (81-3) 6736-1748 ta ...

M Global Insight November 16, 2025 06:00 PM GMT 2026 Global Economics Outlook At the Crossroads Global growth and inflation have an unusually wide range of outcomes in 2026, so we use scenarios to frame the picture. The base case sees continued disinflation and growth settling near potential in 2027… but potential itself might improve. We show two upside scenarios contrasting the forces of stronger spending and rising productivity, while the downside scenario is mild. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do bus ...

RT Nick Almond (@DrNickA)Double disinflation. Gets the network to tail inflation in half the time.The last time an inflation reduction proposal went up on Solana it was probably one of the biggest votes in crypto history.Solana Governance is getting an upgrade soon too. Fun times. https://t.co/ViW7n3AuUQ ...