Market & Economic Outlook - The market is anticipating a pause in rate cuts in December, potentially extending into the new year, influenced by Fed Chair Powell's recent signals [2][4][5] - The economy is showing resilience, reflected in surprisingly strong earnings reports, with Q3 earnings increasing by 14% year-over-year, exceeding initial estimates of 65% [5][6][7] - The analyst anticipates the S&P 500 reaching 7000 by year-end and 7700 by the end of next year, indicating a continued bull market [16][17] - The analyst believes the US economy does not need support, suggesting the Fed's previous rate cuts may have been a mistake [8][9] Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed has already lowered the federal funds rate by 150 basis points over the past year [2] - The analyst questions the effectiveness of lowering interest rates to solve labor market issues and expresses doubt about the concept of a measurable neutral rate [3][12][13] - Despite the Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in September and October, bond yields remain sticky around 4%, and mortgages around 6-65%, indicating resistance to further easing [10][11] Gold & Currency - The analyst initially lacked a view on gold due to its lack of income, but now sees potential for a major breakout, driven by geopolitical factors and Chinese investment [22][23][24][25] - The analyst projects gold prices to reach $5000 by the end of next year and $10000 by the end of the decade [26] - The analyst is contrarian on the dollar, anticipating surprising strength potentially due to the legitimization of stablecoins [27][29][30] Tariffs & Geopolitical Risks - The market has largely discounted the reopening of the US government [18][19] - There is a risk that the Supreme Court may rule Trump's tariffs unconstitutional, potentially requiring the government to refund $350 billion over 12 months, which could adversely affect the bond market [19][20]

Sentiment Analysis - U S small business optimism declined in October due to weaker earnings trends [1] - Labor shortages negatively impacted sentiment [1] - The government shutdown also contributed to the decline in optimism [1]

Time. The major indices uh erasing most of their losses from last week, driven by some optimism that the government shutdown will end soon, as well as easing concerns about the AI trade. Let's bring in Ed Yardi, president of Yardi Research, still aiming for the S&P to end the year at or maybe close to 7K.Ed, it's good to see you. There was some discussion this morning that the 50-day was tested and held. Uh you know that when you're down three for the week and that's the worst in seven months, it was probab ...

Market Overview - Major indices have erased most of their losses from the previous week, driven by optimism regarding a potential end to the government shutdown and easing concerns about the AI trade [1] - The S&P is projected to end the year at or near 7,000 [1] Earnings Performance - Earnings have shown a significant upward trend, with a "meltup" based on strong fundamentals [3] - Analyst consensus for 2026 earnings has been raised, with Q1 and Q2 of this year outperforming initial low to mid single-digit expectations, achieving low double-digit year-over-year increases [4] - The third quarter earnings reporting season is expected to show a 14% increase for S&P 500 earnings, significantly higher than the initial estimate of 6.5% [5] Productivity and Labor Market - Strong productivity growth is contributing to improved earnings, with real GDP revised up to nearly 4% for Q2 and similar expectations for Q3 [6] - Layoffs, particularly in technology and warehousing, are linked to productivity improvements rather than a decrease in demand for services [7] - The labor market is experiencing structural changes, with a slower growth rate in labor supply, but productivity enhancements from AI and management tools are likely to keep unemployment low [10] Economic Outlook - The economy may experience strong growth rates of 3-4% alongside high employment levels, with productivity gains potentially leading to rising real wages [8][11] - Despite concerns about income and wealth inequality, real wages and household consumption are at record highs, indicating a generally positive macroeconomic environment [12][13]

Economic Outlook - GDP growth expectations for Q4 are projected at 1%, with Q1 at 1.3% [2] - Earnings growth expectations for Q4 are flat quarter over quarter, with eight of the eleven S&P sectors expected to show sequential negative earnings growth [2][4] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see sequential positive earnings growth due to seasonal factors, while most other sectors are anticipated to post negative earnings growth [4] - There has been a noticeable shift in investor sentiment regarding the labor market, AI bubble, and private credit concerns over the past few weeks [6][7] Investment Sentiment - Investor positioning has shifted from being underinvested and ready to buy dips to expressing significant concerns about market risks [6] - The potential cliff event for AI capital expenditures is anticipated between 2026 and 2027, suggesting a borrowing of growth into 2026 that may impact future growth [9]

Market Outlook - The market is considered a "buy the dip" market, especially in AI [3] - A solid Santa Claus rally is expected, with focus on November and December, potentially adding about 4 percentage points [14] - The market is in a bull market, reaching all-time record highs in the past couple of weeks [13] AI Sector Analysis - AI is viewed as an app with widespread applications, benefiting cloud providers [5] - There's nervousness about AI, but it's considered a good thing, unlike the tech bubble where concerns were absent [4] - Cloud providers are making a fortune as a result of AI [6] Earnings Performance - S&P 500 is expected to reach record highs for the third quarter in a row [10] - Current earning season shows an increase of 14% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' expectations of 65% [10] - Strong earnings provide a floor underneath the market, better than expected [8] Valuation and Multiples - The forward PE (price-to-earnings ratio) is around 22 to 23 [11] - The Magnificent Seven stocks are selling at 30 times forward PE, while the S&P 493 is selling at about 19 to 20 [12]

American companies are turning in one of their best quarters in years. Wall Street has just shrugged. https://t.co/gTU5Q6XwZ1 ...

Core Insights - Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in both revenues and earnings for the third quarter of 2025, with results expected on November 10 after market close [1][5] - The company has consistently beaten earnings estimates in the last four quarters, averaging a surprise of 25.72% [1] Production and Earnings Expectations - OXY's production volumes for the third quarter are expected to improve compared to the previous quarter, driven by enhanced activity levels in the Permian region and increased production across all main operating areas [2] - The company anticipates production of 1,415-1,455 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) for Q3 2025, with the Permian Resources segment expected to contribute 779-799 Mboe/d [6] Financial Performance Indicators - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for OXY's third-quarter revenues is $6.72 billion, reflecting a decline of 6.04% year-over-year, while the consensus for earnings is set at 48 cents per share, indicating a 52% decrease from the previous year [5][9] - Strong domestic demand for PVC may positively influence earnings, although market oversupply remains a concern [3] - OXY has been generating cash flow to reduce debts, retiring $7.5 billion in debt, which has lowered annual interest expenses by $410 million, likely benefiting earnings per share [4] Market Position and Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for OXY this quarter, as the company holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +0.89% [7][8] - Despite the anticipated decline in revenues and earnings, higher production volumes and effective cost management may help improve margins [9]

Group 1: Affirm Holdings (AFRM) - Affirm Holdings reported an EPS of 23 cents, beating estimates by 12 cents [1][7] - Revenue reached $933.34 million, a 33.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates by $49.98 million [1][7] - The company raised its gross merchandise volume (GMV) guidance to $47.5 billion from $46 billion and increased the adjusted operating margin outlook to 27.1% from 26.1% [1][7] Group 2: Expedia Group (EXPE) - Expedia Group's shares rose by about 17%, or $37.47 per share, driven by strong earnings [2] - The company raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to between 6% and 7%, up from earlier estimates of 3% to 5% [2] - Bookings in the B2B segment increased by 26% to $9.38 billion during the third quarter [2] Group 3: Globus Medical (GMED) - Globus Medical's shares increased by about 29%, or $18 per share, following strong earnings [3] - The company reported an EPS of $1.18, beating estimates by 41 cents [3] - Revenue was $769 million, a 23% increase year-over-year, exceeding estimates by $34.33 million [3][4] Group 4: Akamai Technologies (AKAM) - Akamai Technologies' shares rose by about 10%, or $7.26 per share, due to strong earnings [5] - The company reported an EPS of $1.86, beating estimates by 22 cents [5] - Revenue was $1.05 billion, a 5% year-over-year increase, surpassing estimates by $10 million [5][6]

Core Insights - Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN) reported a third-quarter 2025 loss per share of 3 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of 15 cents per share, compared to earnings of 15 cents per share in the same quarter last year [1][10] Financial Performance - Total revenues for the quarter were $771.5 million, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $768.1 million, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.5% driven by a $25.8 million (12%) rise in Logistics revenues, partially offset by a $3.0 million (1%) decline in Truckload Transportation Services (TTS) revenues, with a portion of the TTS decline attributed to a $3.3 million decrease in fuel surcharge revenues [2][10] - Adjusted operating income was reported at $10.91 million, a decrease of 50% year over year, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.4%, down 150 basis points from the previous year [3] - In the TTS segment, revenues fell 1% year over year to $519.78 million, with adjusted operating income dropping 63% to $8.95 million and an adjusted operating margin declining 300 basis points to 1.7%. Conversely, Logistics revenues increased 12% year over year to $232.58 million, with adjusted operating income rising over 100% to $4.16 million and an adjusted operating margin increasing 140 basis points to 1.8% [4][10] Liquidity and Capital Expenditure - As of September 30, 2025, Werner had cash and cash equivalents of $50.98 million, slightly down from $51.42 million at the end of the previous quarter. Long-term debt remained stable at $725 million. The company generated $44.1 million in cash from operations during the third quarter, with net capital expenditure amounting to $35.2 million [5] - No share repurchases were made in the third quarter, with 5.0 million shares remaining under the new share repurchase authorization as of September 30, 2025 [6] Outlook - For 2025, Werner anticipates TTS truck growth to decline from breakeven to 2%, down from a prior estimate of 1-4%. Net capital expenditure is now projected to be between $155 million and $175 million, revised from $145 million to $185 million. The company expects dedicated revenues per truck per week to rise from breakeven to 1.5%, up from a previous estimate of 0-3%. The full-year 2025 tax rate is now expected to be in the range of 26%-27%, revised from 25%-26% [7]